Dec

28

Tweets-Dec/24/2020

December 28, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2020/12/24
Discussion of season market moves, P/E ratios, and Georgia senate race today.

Dec

28

Tweets-Dec/23/2020

December 28, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Market on 12 -22 gave typical example of how courage trumps everything with lessons from woke-stock market interaction and how not to do a study with infinite multiple classification

Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2020/12/22 https://youtu.be/FgrD3rnapQQ via @YouTube. Here is video that captures courage and multiple classifications and woke

Tune in today's video for tribute to James Lorie the Mendeleyev, of stock market data, i.e. the builder of the stock market periodic table, and the key builder of the Chicago style of bus .education. also, a second father to me. also the incredible silliness of a 5o point decline 

Pulled a rabbit out of http://hat.at close very exciting day. many general principles meals for a life time to learn. Perhaps subscribe to my YouTube channel :

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC85UPcd0vziV3C8ShkRvfCA

The market loves to swoon anything incumbent.  last week is good example. last two days it had 5 panics when non-woke things flit thru tair. we covered some of them in video. the threat worse than execution et al. most important tribute to a great man my squash partner James Lorie.



Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2020/12/23 https://youtu.be/pEARZITKJoQ via@YouTube 

Dec

28

Tweets-Dec/22/2020

December 28, 2020 | Leave a Comment

nooo better proof of the topsy turvy nature of the market is the sp 35 pt sellloff on the news that t he incumbent is pressuring the progressives to give more aid to the american rather tahan the foreigners. wself sacrifice is the calario calll of the progressives

but what is the likely outcome . either the incumbent willl get his way and the amercns would get more or he will not and the old billl will go thru.. now if he was threatening to cancel the Kennedy center 100 million or the smithsonian that would be a disaster for progsvs 

Dec

23

Tweets-Dec/21/2020

December 23, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Betting odds on r' winning in Georgia improve to 70 to 30 European markets down much. gold takes tour of court. Sogi standing solid

A roller coaster today with Sogi standing solid as a stone wall and an infinity of woke news a la Dalton's request that we all have equality by prostration and Bill Barr dealing a final coup de grace to his boss

Dec

21

Tweets-Dec/18/2020

December 21, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2020/12/18
https://youtu.be/PJHkip0PN2w Fri Dec. 18 video gives advice on day trading, courage, and cane trading sparked by one of the biggest positive closes 30 pts in history

Dec 18 video I gave several tips for day trading. I would add two 1. never let a anyone know what your position is. 2. never admit to taking a profit.. 3. more controversial and trumps the other. 4. never day trade at all. 

Dec

18

Tweets-Dec/17/2020

December 18, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2020/12/15 https://youtu.be/SZHshj_WwvE
Today's video covered some amazing, useful points. First, the incredible consilience of all the markets being at new highs including grains and all equity markets. (1 of 2)

Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2020/12/15 https://youtu.be/SZHshj_WwvE What does this mean for inflation, and the ignoramuses at the BLS. We had an extremely interesting interview with Andy Aiken about all things crypto, the problems and cover-ups in the vaccine story. (2 of 2) 

Dec

17

Tweets-Dec/16/2020

December 17, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2020/12/16 https://youtu.be/fwGlIqh7AsI with all ballyhoo, the market managed to close at an all time hi at 3694 basis march price changes were subdued. from 330 am to the close at 430 pm the total range was 7 pts from 3701 to 3690

Expect a wild day tomorrow Thursday 

Dec

16

Tweets-Dec/15/2020

December 16, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Some thing not cricket. vaccine news couldn't be all pacific. chance gardener tomorrow may not try to sink existing

The infra structure enacts another fee from the public.. yet another reason not to day trade

Mr. bell could run into a room and bet a light turning on from a lite switch or high frequency trade

Yet another reason in addition to the 5 others stacked against him previously that the incumbent lost The vaccine could have been rolled out in the summer, well before the current, predictable seasonal spike. Would have saved 150,000 lives. But solving the problem would

Solving the problem would also have re-elected President Trump, and there was no way the swamp would risk that. Heck, the left aborts that many children every month… from the WSJ editorial page

The vaccine could have been rolled out in the summer, well before the current, predictable seasonal spike. Would have saved 150,000 lives. But solving the problem would also have re-elected President Trump, ,there was no way the swamp would risk that. (from another WSJ comment

Apparently the results of the trials are rolled out to the FDA real time several weeks in advance of the announcement and big pharma at the top 9s uniformly woke as is the 95% at the FDA who vote woke. 

Dec

14

Tweets-Dec/14/2020

December 14, 2020 | Leave a Comment

It's a great day for the ""progressives" and bonds finally down 1 fall pt and gold down 14 $ .odds of senate staying r has fallen to 70% versus 80% a week ago. market loves that incumbent near 0 chance. if gains service 'rate raised to 100% the market would rise.

Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2020/12/14 https://youtu.be/ERhKbIlwKfo via
@YouTube
what duplicity will the market infrastructure have in store http://today. How will Mr.. Sogi interact with the fomc . here is a take.

Dec

14

Tweets-Dec/13/2020

December 14, 2020 | Leave a Comment

What joy for the pessimists. Market down 3 days in row. but Sp, Dax, Nikkei, within 0.5 % of all time high

Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web https://youtu.be/CteSgDyQgrY via@YouTube. The market is mysterious, unfathomable and all encompassing.. What evil lies in it is infrastructure. Daily market web takes a crack.

Dec

14

Tweets-Dec/12/2020

December 14, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Niederhoffer Sennett Market Daily Web #`1 https://youtu.be/kkUnTTfKt8Q via @YouTube start of new

Dec

14

Tweets-Dec/11/2020

December 14, 2020 | Leave a Comment

A madness involving a drop below year low, kraken, 3rd down day in a row, baseless unhinged claims, suppression of news of family profits,. what else is new?

Brexit breaks up for 52 nd time

Stimulus deal breakdown, its because of intransigence one ?side? if they ever pass it, one will predict a rout

There stands Mr. Sogi , balanced among big waves, solid as a stone wall on land

Ontogeny revaluate phylogeny all in one day today

The market was quite an adventure today even though it ended unchanged. the swings in one typical day today amounted to as much as the average rise in the index for a year.. here's a take on it. Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web https://youtu.be/CteSgDyQgrY via @YouTube

Dec

11

Tweets-Dec/12/2020

December 11, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Niederhoffer Sennett Market Daily Web #`1 https://youtu.be/kkUnTTfKt8Q via @YouTube start of new

Dec

10

Tweets-Dec/9/2020

December 10, 2020 | Leave a Comment

38% of the days in 2019 and 2020 have ended with a 20 day hi in sp future as of close

wsj.com/articles/trumps-challenges-to-election-face-end-of-the-legal-road-11607518944?mod=hp_lead_pos6… how many biases against pres can you find in this from the wsj news dept and the fox coverage of same issue

WSJ market watch pulls out "sterling awaits last s upper on Brexit. only 8 years out of date. anything to sink orange from news dept.

Kona coffee tasting good in gold 

Dec

10

Tweets-Dec/8/2020

December 10, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Perhaps the strength of the SP these days and its assault on the round number of 3700. is that the betting odds favorite for Pres. in 2024 is Kamela Harris at 20% and Biden is 13% . Pres trump follows at 11%. as mentioned repeatedly the market loves the most "progressive"

The SP plays a lethal game with the round number once again at the close. how many time can you ask the object of your affection to come to your establishment and be rejected. and how will you feel when the answer is yet 

Dec

8

Tweets-Dec/7/2020

December 8, 2020 | Leave a Comment

slow steady inexorable rise to round so far.. but how caan one be tricked> what evil lies in the hearts of the market

Dec

7

Tweets-Dec/6/2020

December 7, 2020 | Leave a Comment

The round number has been hit at 3600. will bonds force it down , or will number not be the penumbra? only the shadow knows

that sh o udl be 3700. the progressives main arg'ument is that the digestive situation of a prominent orange attorney is not good 

Dec

7

Tweets-Dec/5/2020

December 7, 2020 | Leave a Comment

how many sp pts could you make if you caught the exct low and high of the day in 2020. ansr is 300 full sp pts on 3 separate days march 13 , march 16 and march 17 . thats 15000 for 1 contract or 10% on the underlying in one beautiful day. the average is 65 pts

Dec

7

Tweets-Dec/4/2020

December 7, 2020 | Leave a Comment

looks like another round number coming up to celebrate progressism perhaps the Georgia election is becoming more woke

Dec

7

Tweets-Dec/3/2020

December 7, 2020 | Leave a Comment

everything unchanged except gold at a 5day high recovering frm a 12% continuous swoon. the big traders , and infra structure giants must create extra vol today to swing the public inti switches and churning before employment

a nice dipsey doodle out of the blue sky the market devil is infinitely creative when it c0mes to causing the vig and churn

heard in the 27 th district of cal. a call is on hold from the surgeons dining room at va hospital . they wish to know from the congresswoman how the pfizer announcent effects the inverse ultra puts of Indonesia

you have to hand it to the market devils . in the last 15 minutes of the trading day they manged to bring sp from the high of day at 3680 to th low at 3645 and then bak to the middle at 3668. imposible but true. the reason why the best investor i knew James Lorie always said

"stick to buy and hold" 

Dec

3

Tweets-Dec/2/2020

December 3, 2020 | Leave a Comment

always remember that one of the main purposes of markets is to induce vig to make the public churn and generally to do the wrong thing

no betterexample of this is gold..itwent dlwncontinuusy 200 bucks about 9 in 10 days lat 2 weeks.whetherbitcoitnwent up or downwhether sp was up ordonw,whether thewokes were inascendancy ornnot. then out of clear blue sky yest it went up 40 bucks

np better example ofhtis is how the market movesaroundat the opening it goes above andbelwo teh sogi byy5 points. the only way you ca catchit is to do a market order..the high frequency boy beat you and create 1 fuull pointn of vig . i.e if yuselll a=whenits at 55 you're lucky

upi get 5375 for morehtna 5 contracts. if you try to disgusie your order, the clearing firms alll have algoriths to repor tyou to the excange. you have to sign a a doc when they haul you infor hiding your limits that you wont reveal the star chanbericeedings. if you try to

simulat e to reduce the vig edge,they charge you for spoofing. and the courts amaingly have been convinced that trying to lelvel the playingfield inone or a dozen ways is a crime where the punishment can be 1000 times the dollars at issue.

a numberof bkgmediasent memosoutthatwe face uncertaintimes and stocks coud go down for a hundred different reasons. are there more reasons now than the average of the last 100years. andif so is it bullish orbearsih. my favorite newspaper is one of the main culprit in this

but i have tos ay that the big data srive provider was 100% bearish before the electionto create a terriblel aura . but now they are much more neutral . again is this bull or bear: 

Dec

2

Tweets-Dec/1/2020

December 2, 2020 | Leave a Comment

The higher we go the more bearish and anti the wsj and market watch and others become

bonds down 2 full points flirtiing with 3 month lows and greeting ms kinsellen appropriately 

Nov

30

Tweets-Nov/30/2020

November 30, 2020 | Leave a Comment

a full marxian rally. they tried everything , the round number , the big decline at noon, but they couldn't keep it down

Nov

30

Tweets-Nov/29/2020

November 30, 2020 | Leave a Comment

does the sp tend to close at certain numbeer based on the tens digiit with inordinate frequency. ie.3620-3629 is labeled a 2. 267o- 2679 labeled a 7 ?

yes it tends to close att a 7 in the tens digit. chi squared = 20

closes at 0-99 245 closes at 100-199=218. closes at 200-299 = 225 closes at 700-800 =276 data for 1 -1 2019 to present 11-26 2020

Nov

30

Tweets-Nov/24/2020

November 30, 2020 | Leave a Comment

it was quite a fight. considering everything, the incumbent did well…. Now we' lll see how the progressives like the new economic order. and if they destroy themselves as in the French revolution.andwelll see how the market likes collectivism

i am asked to recommend a book ono the french rev. i recommend "voices of the French revolution by Richard Cobb… it has alll the events from contemperaneos souces withh illustrations and( you cna draw your own conclustions as to the similartiteis of today. robespierre et

https://acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6817… inspired by one Big after another coming up with vaccines that replace placebos that lead to 0.5% incidence of disease

https://youtube.com/watch?v=3gg2Jv2ebns… by chance study showing miniscy=ule efficacy of masks is from same caracker barrel of what i meant to send regardiing the marginal efficacy and absurd cost benefit of current crop of vaccines..we live intupsy turvy times. one is long gold

a type 1 error the fda gueards against . falsly rejacting a hypothesis that is true. a 5% prob of rejcitn s true is usually applied.. but not taken into consideratin are the type 2 errors for falsely accepting that a treatment doesnt work when it does. Andy Lo always

Andy Lo always on point with rigorous and useful analysis in finance and health https://alo.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/FDA_26.pdf

 

Nov

30

Tweets-Nov/23/2020

November 30, 2020 | Leave a Comment

the key questioon with the vaccines is with alll thehoundred ofthousand + enrolled in the studies andthemanyhurdles concerning theregisteringof the results andthe histeresis in the results and the many steps that must occur to check and diagnose, why didnt the results

of at least one get reported before the election..i already reported the histeresis of one big pharma via a little bird.presumably the bird would have found morsels of wok e in the other two also. is there no non-woke in any of the three and counting for more

the applicants and the interests of camp kinsellla just hit a 4 year max

the great amerinvestor pokes some fun at me . he expresses theidea that the incumb mishandled the pandemic. but the incumb cleared all the bureacracy and infernal conservatism of the fda and got them to try to cure people without covering their tuches balancing the

benefits against ther side efects inrecord time.its just that appparently there is not one supporter in big pharma who is gratefull for the unchaining that the incumb facilitated. at

at least there was no one at big pharma with the courage to go agaiinst the polls and possibly help the incumbent by providing the good news that they knew about for sure in one case and could or should hav eknown about in the others. Profesor Peltzman is not

the grisly comparison would have applied here but bureacracy was overcome by the incumbent desptie the 99% at the cdc and dr. cattle trader who strove to prevent it

oh is there not one pharma there who had the result earlier pirates of penzance is there not one maiden

https://youtube.com/results?search_query=pirates+of+penzance+is+there+not+one+maiden

 

Nov

24

Tweets-Nov/22/2020

November 24, 2020 | Leave a Comment

reflections. 1/ the most improtant thing in markets and life is to be adaptable' the ability to adopt a way of life to the prevailing circumstances, the ability to find a way of achievingdesirable ends to the prevailing circumstancesn " the ability to siove a problem"

the adaptability qutoe is from Man on earth a fascinating sooy of how all different peooplel and occuarpions and geilgraphy adapt to their particular circumstances. 2 it brings to mind Barton Biggs excelletn book wealth war and wisdom. he gives numerous examples

https://goodreads.com/book/show/2243623.Wealth_War_and_Wisdom… biggs shows how when darkest inworld war 2 an and t the us was losign battlbe iliek Pearl Haarbor and Rommel was mopping upp and fdr ad inaugurated to pessimism like we have wintessed the market looked ahead and went up amid a max of pessimsm

3 the psycholoogy of speculation harper 1926 containsmorewisdom about spec than alllthe nobel prizes that have come down the road for cognitivsbbiaes etc. Here a typical quote" the sold out bulll becomes wretchedly aware that he has dropped otuof the race before the course

sold out bull . 3 was completedand so has thrownout an opportunity to make milllions more " and to make matters worse thay want to make it in the same way thye missed it the first time 

4. the progressives areholding theirfire about meeing with acertain group espousing " matters" the understand that most votes feel that nowadsy ther is more like to be a bias for preference than discrimination. the progressives wailt until they settle in.then the deluge

the vaccination tests seem like their cost benefit is neg. i assume 25000 lacebo that had 100 positive versus2 5000 that had readl vaccine with only 5 who had disease. thus 0.4. % you get disease. and if you get it , chances are 2 you have sympoms. so for

100000 that didnt have test thhey 2 willl get symptoms the disruption to 99998 the time spent the possible side effects of the 99950 that take the vaccine would seem to be more han the net negative to the 2 who ddint take it. let's say im off by factor of 5 or 10. same conlsn.

many chemo drugs extend your life by 6 months at teh cost of 6 month to a year of misery and side effects and vistis away from home to hospital. ifis it worth it?

half of 45000 in study received placebo. so my figures seem to order of 5 or 10 to b3e correct

Nov

24

Tweets-Nov/21/2020

November 24, 2020 | Leave a Comment

holding your fire. the sp stayed within 1 pt ofr 3570 on every half hour until 345. then it dropped 30 pooitns in last 1 minutes. 2 Bernie wants to be labor secretary but is holding stridency back.3. the new economy forum holdsmeeting alll week to emphasize climate change

its apparent that the progressives are holding fire in many ways until their man is in control and theycan receive their reperations for support of challenger. query. what willl trnaspire when the final stretch drive, the climactic moment near end of race

Nov

24

Tweets-Nov/20/2020

November 24, 2020 | Leave a Comment

For the first time, white shoe man at treasury says somehting non-woke , i.e. bailotus willl not continue in force, and the market immediately drops 1%. why has he changed his colors? a meeting at wood shed with the incumbent?an effort to differentiate from Pocohontus?

one goes bak to theme of market s for last 3 months. the market loves collectivism. and when a free market thing is bruuited about it collapses

nasdaq futurues p laying foootsie with another constructal numer at 12000

all 38 half hour prices from yest at 8 pm within 2 points of 3570. this isnt cricket. how is the ;ublic goig to lose their proper amount. how is the infrastructures goign to generate volume? how r Members going to prospe ron a day like this holding fire until mond

Nov

24

Tweets-Nov/19/2020

November 24, 2020 | Leave a Comment

a close of down 1% that will resonate forever

the tech agrarians getting RICHER RElATIVE TO sta id investors 

muST BE bad news for incumbent nasdaq up 1% more than sp. hav you tested that?

heard at the Tresury. "welll split the difference " before native american takes ovef

Nov

23

Alex Castaldo writes: 

BUT THIS IS NO LONGER THE CASE. Since Monday October 26, 2020 the CME always uses 4pm as the settlement time. So the 4:15 price and the settlement are now different every day, not just on the last day of the month.

Steve Ellison writes: 

Thanks, Doc. I had done a double take a couple of times when the S&P 500 settlement price was completely outside the range of the last 15-minute bar. For example, on November 12 the range of the 16:00-16:15 period was 3543.75 to 3533.00, but the emini settlement price was 3532.50. Because I do intermarket analysis, I have long kept a separate database of each day's 16:00 price in the S&P 500 and other markets (US Eastern time).

Victor Niederhoffer  writes: 

more important what is the predictive  properties  of the move from 1600 to the real 1615 price

Nov

19

Tweets-Nov/17/2020

November 19, 2020 | Leave a Comment

the more agrarian we get, the more bullish we. are what the market need is an enumeration of all those who didnt vote agrarian, and systematic enumeration of their property as a door opener

Nov

16

Tweets-Nov/14/2020

November 16, 2020 | Leave a Comment

contrived, woke fictional story, queen s gambit part of Obama view of world. much better is harry dents the bobby fisher I knew

correction.excellent book that tells the real story of brilliant and memorable loesseresque chess pleyers from the 50's tp 70' s

Nov

16

Tweets-Nov/13/2020

November 16, 2020 | Leave a Comment

many ifs 1 " if the big pharma had announced or indicated reultas when they had them a week before elec.2 if the media hadnt black listed all news of son of chall.3 if Puppet scientist whose actions are like the cattle trader he loved gave his first positive talk befr elect

4. if media had dug in to finance and wealth of chal. family 5. if big bus and big tech wasnt 96% iin support and fin aid to chall. . What else would have changed results? 

Nov

13

Tweets-Nov/12/2020

November 13, 2020 | Leave a Comment

remember one of the main attributes ofthe market is to foce you to pay frothe infra structrue, the welllcapitalzied and the members. today its ina holding pattern. how can you dothe wrong thing

at least its honoring the man from Hawaii with the ukulele and the surfingr

ally at20.5 possible 

Nov

13

Tweets-Nov/11/2020

November 13, 2020 | Leave a Comment

new alll time highs in stocks.crude at 20 day hi gold at20 day low and b onds a gnat away from big lo. betting ods incumb has same chances at 13%to gain pres as Dems have to gain senate.

Nov

13

Tweets-Nov/10/2020

November 13, 2020 | Leave a Comment

a little bird that has access to the inside of a big companys vaccine results told me that the big comPANY had the results a week ago but didnt releave them until today as they didnt want to help a certain incumbent

some have responded to my little bird tweet that they feel it is funny. 1let me say first that I would never communicate soemthing like that unless i was quite certain that what the little bird said was true. 2. let me say it's notfunny. it's very sad that the poor

the poor personage not only had to overcome the 95% of emploees in the relevant agencies who supported the challenger, but also the ceo's of those working to create value for their consumers p

to say nothing about the scientist who wrote a love letter to the cattle trader and whose every utterance served to sink the incumbent inclluding his wapo interview the weekend before the election. on such smalll strands can a civiliztion destroy itself

it is good that my youngest daughter used her biochemistry degree to become a dr in a southern Medical school rather than working in the Pharma industry where she mite have interned

hello mr. sogi how the kona coffee a little higher ground than your surfing

accordingn to the betting odds(lott stossel) the chances that the r's will both lose the presidency and in conjuntion lose the senate is 20%

a hard fought game adjourned with winning chances

Nov

10

Tweets-Nov/9/2020

November 10, 2020 | Leave a Comment

some moves. bonds down to new 20 dat kiw at 17050, incumb odds up 3% at 10%, crude above 40 at 10 day hi,gold down 70, vaccine if 2 days ealiear would have changed election results. held bak to create misery

a tweeet from Mr.availla. thinking like a cynic spec " the best part is that theyheld bakthe vaccine news. a true american coup. doubtless pfizer needed the extra 3 days to access outcome

Nov

10

Tweets-Nov/8/2020

November 10, 2020 | Leave a Comment

market 1/2% away from all time high as collectivism reaches a max and guillotine comes into focus. also the largest rise from close to open ever

correction 3 rd largest rise from 1615 to 1815

we did it 3534 previous alll time closing hi

only 3 times its been up this much alll w ere up big form 3537 for alll susquent time periods that;s not a predicition  

just responding to a request from estimabel mr. tiger

Nov

9

Victor Niederhoffer writes: 

Report on what seems to avalla and me likek pfizer held bak their results.  was   it planned to be after election or did they just report it  late. eitherway, its very suspicious and  certainly affected the electio

K. K. Law writes: 

Need to dig into it to find the truth. It is entirely possible the MSM plus many tech companies including big pharmas are behind influencing the election to make sure Trump lose. As much as the left "wishes" to put the election behind, this is far from being done. It is not until the Supreme Court has made the final decision after reviewing all the submitted evidences and hearing sworn testimonies. I saw the words, "Hear, Hear." Exactly, let us hear what the Supreme Court has to decide and say. The election and the trades are interrelated. There are chances one may have to switch back to "Biden lose, Trump win" trades. We shall see.

Jordan Neuman writes: 

The SuJordan Neumanpreme Court will probably not take the cases.  

Gus Glads writes: 

Pfizer made its timeline very clear from the beginning. Was transparent from the start. The company outlined its process and gave a clear roadmap in October. Read below. Additionally, Pfizer from the beginning has never been part of Operation Warp Speed and has not taken any govt money for R&D.

https://www.pfizer.com/news/hot-topics/an_open_letter_from_pfizer_chairman_and_ceo_albert_bourla?linkId=102134275

As for the Supreme Court. Trump and his “legal” team was 0-10 entering today in courts across America  since Election Day as it relates to cases of election fraud and this morning his team’s most recent attempt in Lansing, Michigan Cout of Appeals was rejected by Judge Cynthia Stephens with the following language: “I regret to inform you that your submission is defective.”  The reason being the submission was missing 4 key elements of evidence and support that they claimed to possess.

Nov

9

Tweets-Nov/6/2020

November 9, 2020 | Leave a Comment

playing footsie with the round number of 3500 as woke prepare to take vengeance and exculpatory congrats to r's come down the pike

for the market to be commpletly happy and marxism to reach its acme the d's would have to take senate whitch seems 5 times more likely than thei ncumbent winning at this stage

there are quite a few red marks on the ladies nylons

what they all have in common " blue wave that wasnt","strong showing in red states", " resurgence in Latino and black voters " " how did r's avert disaster","the turnaround in R's showiing so much better than polls" all attempts to congrat and mollifu r's for losing 

Nov

6

Tweets-Nov/5/2020

November 6, 2020 | Leave a Comment

correction typo the fomc should be bulll today… theyre on their guard

Nov

6

Tweets-Nov/4/2020

November 6, 2020 | Leave a Comment

hpe springs eternal but ultimately the odds willl go to 1 % incumbent and theyll stilll be fighting and excusing rather than succombing to marxism.. its good to be a good loser. shake te tooher persons hand . thank the referree and see wahat youve leaarned formyour def

and ater shakig hands a re compplimenting the winner. of course " hows Soros

and of course after the " hows soros" … can I get you and your running mate a drink.. many times i've been in a similar position to the loser. i can remember t han all. how it hurts to go bak to the locket room and see what you[ve learned and h ow to regroup

tomorrow another day for market. and the Fed should be contrite and learning to marx but this time enough is enough and the market mite succomb

There are so many news opinions about how the incumbent did so much better than the polls showing how good the effort was and how he should be congratulated. It reminds me of all the articles that cast aspersions on a champion who was the favorite and win a hard 5 set match.

those are the kind that one loves to win. gives the loser a undeserved does of confidence . but the pleasure is greatest when you win a close one as it so demoralizes the loses and cases him so much pain

leaves the looes and his supported with a box of "if onlys" ratjer than getting bak to the drawing boards and fixing his game.

B litigated against nephew Karl. ( finaly won by threatening to move bak to Bonn). Lert us hope that the former incumbent doesnt make the same mistake as B and Ryan. as out friend, the great wiswell said "after a loss it's bak to the drawing boards rite away 

Nov

6

Tweets-Nov/3/2020

November 6, 2020 | Leave a Comment

the late money favors plywood futures

bonds up at new high stocks at minimum down 21. marxists are losing. least senate will be rep ublica n

same results for sp as last time. oddnow 20 1 in favor trump. as soon as odds starting go for trum the spwnet u50 ppts form 3350 to 3410 . bods nwo up only 1 1/2 pointsp

odds now 69.5 % for trump to win and 30% fior biiden to win from lott stpssel site. funny to see the odds chanbe y 33.5% for tump and -34% for biden in last day

Nov

6

Tweets-Nov/1/2020

November 6, 2020 | Leave a Comment

very rare consilience of 20 day minum in bonds and sp both as of friday close;;this too will pass, especially 10 days later for both

cnn.com/2020/10/30/health/household-spread-covid-19-wellness/index.html… the swamp continue to do whatever they can to do incumbent in.. the study seems lie propaganda. how woudlyou refute it? for one k what is the symptiom and outcome rate?

Nov

2

lets Try

November 2, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Victor Niederhoffer  writes: 

Tony Bobulinski held presser claiming Joe Biden knew about Hunter's business deals

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiiSq7toqlQ

Bill Egan writes: 

Bill Rafter has a very nice model.

Yes, rolling windows mean you cannot use standard inference.

So what?

Use the levels and turning points and curve shapes. Apply visual pattern recognition.

Look back over 20-30 years and see how it performs. For example, high volatility vs low volatility years can cause differences.

You are missing out on $$$ by insisting on using only methods where inference works.

Nov

2

lets try

November 2, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Victor Niederhoffer  writes: 

Tony Bobulinski held presser claiming Joe Biden knew about Hunter's business deals

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiiSq7toqlQ

Bill Egan writes: 

Bill Rafter has a very nice model.

Yes, rolling windows mean you cannot use standard inference.

So what?

Use the levels and turning points and curve shapes. Apply visual pattern recognition.

Look back over 20-30 years and see how it performs. For example, high volatility vs low volatility years can cause differences.

You are missing out on $$$ by insisting on using only methods where inference works.

Nov

2

Tweets-Oct/29/2020

November 2, 2020 | Leave a Comment

cellophane big guy wiens his lead in betting odds slitely markets at 20 day minimum should be up from here by closes

residents of big ciities whether red or blue prepare for storming of bastille by hiring armed guards .

at lest the bonds at a new 20 day low dont want bailoutws and lock downs

free associations venezuala , e Germany vers w germany, Us as failed nation, many replete with inequities, waiting liens at emergency rooms, paying 50% more for health plans, young people losing opp to invest in future, activities that make life worth livng,, French Rev.

reflexively racist,pessimistic view, cllapsed buildings, "unrest collapsed buildings, monuments, cancel culture,smartest guy I know, likely cabinet intellect, market prefers collectivism, betting odds at 70%, 400 million arbitraged,,bookies dont allow for 52 % against

pessimism about country carries over to nasdaq, stocks just a gnat above tues, low and 20 day low at 11200, earnings reports all beats brought nas down 2%

an interesting read from commentary carried by the wssj

the final quote is timeless. commentary poitn sout that Trump is not a wel mannered conservative who speaks in elegant terms and reads good boooks. He s like the coommon man that Truman was. he consludes " The average american is a common man . As a result we are the

we are the riches, powerful, tolerant, and freeist in Human human history

Oct

27

Tweets-Oct/26/2020

October 27, 2020 | Leave a Comment

possibly a goo d entry at 3428 sp at 220 am et

Oct

27

Tweets-Oct/25/2020

October 27, 2020 | Leave a Comment

compliancecultureblog.com/2018/03/07/integrity-of-game-play-referee-bias/… compared to the home court bias and the popular pressure bias the incumbent seems to receive a level of bias 1000 times worse. the suposedly impartial comittees and agencies are all 90% wuth swamp

big media are canceling news of? wealth of the son and brothers. 4. big bus favors the big guy because he is less unpredictable than the alternative according to wsj.survery. 4. they feel he will do things pragmatic to help the lower middle classes.5. what is best way ?

a few things seem clear to me. 1. if the news about the big guys familyhad some out before the dem convention, a different progressive ( perhaps bernie ) would be the candidate. 2. the progressives are hoding their fire until afterl the election . 3. the big media and tech are 

Oct

26

Tweets-Oct/24/2020

October 26, 2020 | Leave a Comment

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_drive… the big guy widens his lead to 28 percentage points after the debates and the change in views on fracking and the denial of impropriety with relatives on Ukraine and China and the market goes up

i should say :" come in contact with" rather than " met".on ewonders why the hard drive of the son stayed at the bureau for 3 months withouto leaking or action

with the big guy firmly in control, and his lead in te betting odds seemingly insurmoutnable, the regularties for the next week in sp are are very bull. a surge for the incumb could change it as would a devastating down move in bonds

Oct

26

Tweets-Oct/23/2020

October 26, 2020 | Leave a Comment

what a contempt politicians have for us mortals. " even though Joe Biden does not share our poltical beliefs ( he is much better than the alternative ) says michael Moore. how have big boys purporte dpolitical beliefs changed since the Dem convention

Oct

23

Tweets-Oct/22/2020

October 23, 2020 | Leave a Comment

for whats eems like the 80 th time the s p slips badly at the close and we see why now as the fbi makes a semblance of bing there. neverthelss the big deline ins sp at 3421 is much overwrought

the big boys lead advances to 26 percentage pts,, near a max no disclosure seem sufficient to unwrap the cellophane.the debate with fellow travelers setting rules .  

moderating should be de rigeur all in all a further augmentation of agrarian which the market loves

the bonds hit set a new 20 day low in the 172 handle showing that some believe in the Mises analysis that uncontoled inflation will be the next pandemic. presumablly this means a heads up for the stimulus bill after falling apart at the close 5 days in a row to be passed 

Oct

23

Tweets-Oct/21/2020

October 23, 2020 | Leave a Comment

beginning to hit the bonds at 20 day low. senate odds move up against the big boys party. stocks intnerruptus yesterday

recentlly a woman's march, and now a commmittee for justice.. let us hopep the big boy wins so that a reign doestn begin

one calls out for a speedier , more humane,less painful,and more effcient way . where is the americaan Joseph Ignatus

a barron coleman day so far. 'eveythings up except my widdler "

thanks for ht e kona coffee mr. sogi. perhaps i soud send you some3 ebigers peach pie in a few minutes. how often can lacik of stimulus tank the market last houri owe yoyuthis time mr. sogi ebingers went out of busienss due to declining taste for sweets and competitin from entemans.. it ws russian interference and sdisinformation. tooo much chess and not enuf checkers

Oct

23

Tweets-Oct/20/2020

October 23, 2020 | Leave a Comment

a di rigeur day with bonds hitting the 173 handle and sp paying abeisance to Mr. sogi a few times. the BIG guy has cellophane around him and maintains his lead of 26 percentage pts. as stated the market loves socialism and the Jacobins have it n their hitting box

Oct

20

Tweets-Oct/19/2020

October 20, 2020 | Leave a Comment

slite reductioln in Big Guys lead to 21 percentge pt from 34 to 42 1 week ago. dax refuses to go up today with sp. ecovering contrived russian news at 4 pm friday which caused decline of 37 full pts

Oct

20

Tweets-Oct/18/2020

October 20, 2020 | Leave a Comment

From The Time It Never Rained by Elmer Kelton

Read: http://tl.gd/n_1srehkt

Oct

19

Tweets-Oct/17/2020

October 19, 2020 | Leave a Comment

2-5-2018 a monday the market dropped 81 pts from 3pm to 4.15: but the declines want over to 4 am on feb 6, 2018

What;s happpening oon walll street1 1. The Bit guy's lead is whittled down to 26 percentage pts. still 2 to 1 in his favor. 2. The bonds and stocks have both ended close to u nchanged 2 days in a row. The paper of record has a feature article extolling free speech-

they disdain to cover the many newsworhty and verifiable authenticity of the Big Guys activities. 4. The Mailman showos that oenshould never give up 

Oct

19

Tweets-Oct/16/2020

October 19, 2020 | Leave a Comment

but indeed there have been 8 such moves of 38 of more pts, since 2011, the greatest being 2-11-1998, a day that will live in infamy

the sp toook a surprising 38 pt drop from 3 pm to the futures close moving spf from up 15 on the day to down 10 at 415 . you mite thini that this is unpreced 

Oct

16

Tweets-Oct/15/2020

October 16, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Bonds conntinue on their merry way goingu whenever stoocks go down. the forces of " big gov" were not able to enable sp to rise for two consecutive days. the pes odds continue to worsen against the incumbent with a 30 percentge pt. differential

Oct

16

Tweets-Oct/13/2020

October 16, 2020 | Leave a Comment

just to set the record straight for a great man and great book https://goodreads.com/book/show/1051837.The_Economic_Way_of_Thinking… this book i've read over and learned from at lest 10 times.. no diagrams or mathematcis just clear reasoning on the economic way of thinkin

foxnews.com/politics/amy-coney-barrett-supreme-court-confirmation-hearing-notepad… 3 cheers touche.. d's willl have to be very carefu to hold their fire on her like thyeve agreed to with Bernie

amazing that bonds bak to their old habits going upp a fulll point on the first day down off almost alll time high in stocks. somehow they dont believe how Mises said it will all end in runaway inflation

mr. fanta notes that the 2 dya has been down 15 consecuitve days.. have you tested that? is what you shoud ask about allll suc phenomena which goes over and beyond the t urn to socialism

sometimes the sure turn to socialism is not bullish for a day… should be bak to woke bulishness tomorrow 

Oct

13

Good Quote

October 13, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Victor Niederhoffer  writes: 

From wsj article on profits  "Night and day there are businessmen out there thinking of ways to feed us, to entertain us, to keep us healthy, to help us communicate — all out of a desire for profit.  The profit motive is the producer’s motive.  It is the desire to prosper by creating and offering for sale the values we need to live and enjoy life — and to spearhead the invention of new values that raise our standard of living.   The profit motive is the foundation of human happiness and human progress." — from the book "Equal is Unfair" by Yaron Brook and Don Watkins

Richard Owen  writes: 

Hi Vic - a noble story. It does feel though that if you tried to launch any benchmark business in recent years (presumably with a tech enabled angle) with the intention of collecting real profits, you were done for. QE took away the discount rate and corrupted the need for profits and perhaps underwrote much of the current chaos. With a 3% real fed, housing would be affordable and Jeff Bezos a lot poorer, allegedly two roots for mass discontent. And maybe the aim of competing improvements in products and services drove capitalism some time ago. Because there was a large productivity gap between what people were capable of and what they achieved. But now people seem to be operating closer to the asymptote. Where I am currently living there are three identical copies of Uber, and the only way to differentiate their product is who is willing to accept the biggest deficit of profits until the competition goes bankrupt. Capitalism's main end is no longer who is attracted by profits but who can most convincingly promise unrealistic distant future profits. Imagine there's no antitrust, it's easy if you try, no competition below us, above us, only sky.

Hernan Avella writes: 

Nevermind the rents extracted by businesses that nobody needs and are the product of cronyism and regulatory capture. Think 401k plan administrators and health care insurance middle men. H

Oct

13

Tweets-Oct/12/2020

October 13, 2020 | Leave a Comment

https://foxnews.com/politics/fauci-comments-out-of-context… final deth blow. rather loathsome

challenger holding fire axcept lobs that green new deal is still favored.. looks like deal to keep silent for a few weeks has been made implicitly

15 days sicne 2 day sp down

Oct

13

Tweets-Oct/11/2020

October 13, 2020 | Leave a Comment

challl lead at maximu at 325 nikkei at high, bonds creeping up fro low. tiimes re;ports 1 after another negative about pres. character and integrity. what do they have on tap for next days

wsj.com/articles/to-serve-the-public-seek-profits-11602435735?mod=hp_opin_pos_2… forgive me for saying that marxism, big government isnt good for markets nor is taxing just the ones that make the most

"Night and day there are businessmen out there thinking of ways to feed us, to entertain us, to keep us (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sre9j1

Oct

13

Tweets-Oct/10/2020

October 13, 2020 | Leave a Comment

much discussio has takenpalce that after the election with bidne continuing to maxiize hsi lead at 31 percentage pts, the r willnever again be elected. the three new states , the end of the filibuster, have been mentioned, the widening of voting to felons and open borders

what not mentioend is that all the new bailouts create new voters beholden to big government, ,socialized activiity, , ith each new deal more become beholden.. the money spent on bailouts could have been spent by consuemrs on consump. future output will take big hit

https://listverse.com/2014/05/02/10-cruel-death-marches-from-modern-history/… add to this the steady drum beat of incresing government before electionthat now has market totallly in favor of d's and more socializationk, and higher taxes, and soaking the rich.

The d and obvilioysly hodlignitheir fire ad challenger mover to the center to garner votes, but harris and sanders havehungry lookds and like the french rev after they gain power, the chinese walls will break down.

Oct

9

ultimately the market will showrevulsion with the socailistagenda. the questio is whethert he revulsio beings overnnite or at 1 pm todya. alll the money spent on non-productivea ctivities willl eventualy haunt as in digginig adn filling holes in the desert

he market continues to act like it loves socialism

Oct

7

okay i do know much about racket sports. everal readers have given their take. but it's like faking a drop shot, and having your adversary rush to the net and then hitting him in the testiacles with a hard drive

i try not to tweet about things i am ignorant about but my ignorance is great. if some fencer can say what tripe intentions really is , the readers and I would reallly appreciate it

that John Normile many time national epee champion and market maven

nadi laments in his book that very few of the modern 20 th century fenncers actually use triple intentions any more. shout out to johoon normile who was nat. e[ee champpion who alerted me to this lapse in modernday fencning a nd markets

https://amazon.com/Fencing-Aldo-Nadi/dp/188452804X… triple intention is faking a move that yo ur opponent reacts to and then making your coutner move to his delivery

nadi on triple intention

chabce gardner should be on triple guard today. 1last tiime he killed market. as 2 he did yesterday with illl chosen naivewords. and 3 presumably mrk tokhim to the wood shed after 2

back to 3pm level tues except for 4% drop inlast hour. pres continues to fall behind by 24% from chall. bonds finally showing that Mises predicted with runawy inflation ultimately at new low again

amazing that of all that have come down from the vistorian age, the most resonant one is the series of comic operas by G and S. i find the same self dealing ,posturing in congress then as now. if you want to be ruler of the queens navy stay close to your cellar. wear mask

kudlow must have been in quaran pres must have acted without him. kudlow sayihg to himself " i told you so. dont go off on a limb. consult me first as you have in past. pres is his own man even though he know as little about sp as chance gardner does about economy.what a combo

amazing pres seems think he won debate, that the women dont see their abusve divorced husbands in him but now chall pretnds that he;s not a socialist ,that all his previous leanings were window dressings. lets see if most lib record in congress ms. harris can pull sme trick

surprise annouce was good for 1000 dow pts down in just 2 hours at low of 500 pm. lost in shuffle was cattle trader trying to cover up hier emails with accuation of russian collusion by opponent. no sympathy surge for pres. no matter what he does, its against him

incumb is feeling better but his bettigodds witih at keast 159mm wagered keep going against him. now 61% vs 25% against. even more worrisome is chances of repub senate at 64-36 against. the surprise announcemnet at 250 pn nust have taken Kudlow by surprise as in middle of da 

Oct

7

incumbent is bak in white house but his defecit in bettingi odds increses to 24 percentage pts. bonds at another 20 day lo at open

ignoramus running economy and politicking 

Oct

6

one improtant lesson to learn is to hae astoppping rule concerning an activity when there has been a run of good fotune rhather than a loss..e.g.. the idea of stoppping when youlve lost a thousand bucks at vegas is worse than stopping when youve made a thou.

there will be no moreo predictions forom this twitter for a while.

one of those days where every half hour price from 6 pm to present was withing 7 pts of open or preivous price. public has no rite to be insulated from loss so much as bacon would say.

this has to be tested as everything else.. i would say this applies to a series of trades with the same gravumen rather than to an individual disparate trade

bonds very quietly arabesking to a 20 day low at open

the wikipedia page on the french revolution iswritten from a woke perspective. no mantionwhatsoever aobut the reign of terror and the 10000 who were guillotine and loss of property. one of causes according to wiki was the deregulation of prices. the french revolution

to me is very relevant to today especially as a predictor of the increasing interventions and big government sure to come especiallyif the incumbent wins

17000 not 10000

a better summary then wiki on the reign of terror, the law of 22, the 50000 to 220000 that were killed

Oct

5

amazing drop in pres. odds of winning . now 61% fro chall and 27% for incumb. a differential of 24 percentage pts verus 7 or 8 1 week ago, cattle trader somehow moves up to 2% . the reign of retribution willl come. whol will be the next robespierre. what does this foretell?

unsung major caus e of swings was bias of chris walllace against trump. so many areas he prevented biden from admitting no police force, let him off on hunter. . let hism call pres a lia and clown. reminds mf of the bias alll refere had against me when i won 10 natnls in row

Oct

5

market has never been down more than 25 at 9 am on an employment analysis. it was bearishas of thur close. the tendency on the times it was down aroudn25 is for it to down to 910 then up. only 6 obseervations . on major pres. illnesses the market recovers after thefirst day . then by 5 days lat er iit's bak to the pre sickness news. the pres ods moved to 60% versus 35% for 'challanger. that should keep it down for the early hours

usually the m market knows about these events before it anouced. perhaps the declineat 210 on thur. was related to thsi announcement i see no other evidence of any front running

mr ag trader tweets that cpper knew before hand but stocks cratered at 12 35 am going down 1% , as far as u can see cper made a mmajormove up at 330 am. perhaps im mssiing some thing. i dont trade copperr-lack of liquidity. susan was first woman copper trader on floor

as marty riesman would say next five minutes from 915 to 920 am et arekey. danger of falllign to round number seems less liekly at 920 bulll frhm there

the glitter falls off at 945 acck=odriding tomy numbers willl we be visitign mr. sogi beofroe then>

mr sogi i lll have to leave you above 3353 you cant have breakfast alll day

mr. sogi it;s bee too log since i visitied you in your favorite adobe. i ;m sort of close to you and they say surfing is very good for keepihg healthy for those of age 

Oct

5

if ine had to guess for the rest oof the day, the market loves big government deciding how, andwho, and what to do do

perhaps more government in thenext half hour or so

Oct

1

Whenever trump was scoring a point , wallace cut him oof. when heasked biden toname on e police force that  was in favor of him,  wallace moved to next question.  same when he was asked whether he was going tostack the supreme court. bidden answered vote. and t hat stopped it.  also, when asked about blm  itwas again stoped.   also,  trump lost all female votes because he reminded them of their abusive divorced husbands.   trumpp shouldnt have brought up the  point about biden being smart.   3ewpecailly since  the incumsked someone on our list to take gr  examsx for him… amny way  walllac e  was likke the old man referee who  couldnt adjust to  changing conditions and  was biased against incumbent

Sep

30

Tweets-Sep/30/2020

September 30, 2020 | Leave a Comment

as predictied the market loves socialismt , increased taxes, and the green new deal. the odds against incumbent moved down by 9%. its a landside for the challenger. and the market went up 5 points. its not cricket. it makes one wish to throw in the towel. 59% versu 37.%

as markman says about the gret mr. e , "Even when he's wrong he makes you money" i was wrong about the amrket's reaction to the debate. as soon as the odds on s=challanger went to landslide territory of 20% from 11 or 12% be teh debte the market went down., perhap by 1%

apparentlyy some people beside the bilious billionaires dont wish to have their wealth confisated

i go bak to my original theem the market loves socialism. it has a self destructive mien. i buying at 1 am

at least there will be no "peaceful protests" on nov 3

like armand hammer and the palindrome who often liked to hurrah me because any proofits i made would go to the account of the : soviet novrokony bank i have no compunction in taing a profit from the turn to the left one willl need it

it waw very dark at the end of the tunnel when 1291 hit the fan

not to admit that one mite have made a profit as it moved from 3300 3314. thinkin g bak to the good old days before the palindrome severed his relation with me, i recall with stalwarness the two rules he taught me. ` 1 use two cans of tennis ball. 2 never admit to a prft

never admit to green on the balance sheet

the main loser in the betting odds wias madame royale the vp in waiting. her odds of becoming pres ths eletion felll by 50% as the chance that hte boss woud pass away in a m onth decreased to almost zero with hsi vibrant performance

much baka nd forth about who won the debate and in the meanwhile the challlangers lead doubled to 22 percentage pts from 11 befr the debate. amadame royale has her chance of beoming next pres down to 0.2%

i reiterate my originaltake. " the market loves big government, marxism, and socialism. and they prefer a cellephonic candiate to a strident one. shld be

Sep

30

A hypotthesis

September 30, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Victor Niederhoffer writes: 

If  a devil were to cast a spell and  alll  wealthy from specualting and investing would be confiscated, in addition  to the bilious billionaires whoa rare guarding the selfish genese of their progeny, i would say that the market would go  up…  the same reaction to  tehh broe businesses and schooll closure and social isoaltioon  and  propaganda of the resistance and violence that  we see charactirzed by   the  dem leader tearing up the state of union massge.. okay here is the query . why a re investors so self destrucitve that they hope for an inumbent win.  the way the did for the cattle trader? 

Arthur Khaldarov  writes: 

because in the end they make a lot more with someone who is predictable and controllable. What good money is if you can't control/buy power with it? Another boat or a house?

Jordan Neuman writes: 

The market is now predominantly big tech.  Aren't those really Democratic stocks now?

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