Dec

23

Fascinating to watch how former low status jobs, like cybersecurity, have become high status now. Same is true the other way around as well (eg (male) technician at the London tube system who makes a quarter of his wife who is in real estate - although that is changing now). Wondering what low type jobs / or ppl are on the fringes today will be in high demand in coming years.

Carder Dimitroff responds:

Try these:

Any of the crafts. Specifically, licensed electricians, plumbers, and HVAC techs. Many make more than engineers.

Public response teams. Specifically, firefighters, EMTs, and law enforcement. Many make more than lawyers, particularly when pensions are considered.

Career military. Specifically, for those with 20 years of service. Lifetime benefits are incredible (free college, unlimited grad schools, pensions w/colas, lifetime medical insurance, VA benefits, hiring preferences).

Pamela Van Giessen suggests:

Car mechanics

Henry Gifford writes:

My friend who fixed boilers said to his sophisticated, suit-and-tie, well educated in-laws “I’m not the smartest guy around. I’ve only read two or three books in my life. I don’t think I’m smart enough to come up with a sophisticated investment plan (nods all around the room at this point). So I just buy one piece of New York City real estate each year and hope for the best”. No more nodding at that point.

Guess what blue collar people who don’t have vices do with their money? They buy property. Who is better suited to own real estate? People who fix things and have friends who fix things, or lawyers?

And what nobody mentions is that some people are much better at those sorts of work than others. Simply finding someone to show up and try to do those things is hard. Someone who is good at one of those trades is in even higher demand.

Those fantastic benefits for former military people are not limited to the military – all federal employees get all those benefits after twenty years of work. If someone joins the military at 18, and gets out at 38, or gets out sooner and then works in the post office or etc. until they “get their twenty”, they get full salary with increases for life. Income that will survive any lawsuit, even the IRS can’t take it all. They maybe collect a total of three years of salary for every year worked.

Nils Poertner responds:

Certainly good to encourage young men (or women) to follow a path that interests them - and not just follow a path that is currently "high status". This "Yousef" guy who was my IT guy at Bankers Trust decades ago (low status in my eyes back then) became a cyberpunk in 2008…you get the idea. That said, it is a power game outside. young men need wives etc.

Henry Gifford adds:

I judge the level of a single woman’s interest in me by counting the seconds until she says “what do you do?”.

No woman has ever asked me if I like what I do, or am good at what I do – not important.

Many men have a choice between coming home miserable to a wife, or coming home happy to an empty house. Age old dilemma, no known fix, as all our DNA has evolved to enhance survival, which for a woman over the millennia has meant marrying the chief’s son, or someone else with high status.

Larry Williams recalls:

When I was dating all women ever asked me is your place or mine. Must have been doing something wrong.

Michael Brush is curious:

Do you have a cycle chart for that?

Larry Williams clarifies:

Yes but there are not enough examples to draw a conclusion.

May

28

Street smarts: how a hawk learned to use traffic signals to hunt more successfully

But what was really interesting, and took me much longer to figure out, was that the hawk always attacked when the car queue was long enough to provide cover all the way to the small tree, and that only happened after someone had pressed the pedestrian crossing button. As soon as the sound signal was activated, the raptor would fly from somewhere into the small tree, wait for the cars to line up, and then strike.

Easan Katir predicts:

Next iteration: the hawk will be pressing the pedestrian crossing button!

Michael Brush quips:

Pavlov’s birds.

Henry Gifford writes:

When I was hiking down The Grand Canyon I sat on a rock at the edge of the trail and took out a sandwich and started to eat. A bird came flying from my left side, toward the sandwich in my right hand. I reacted by pulling the sandwich back, to the right side of my head. Another bird came from behind and grabbed it.

Later I heard the birds’ favorite food is tuna fish, which they steal cans of from hikers. They open the can by grabbing it in their beak and flying above the one of the three cabins at the bottom of the canyon where the park rangers live and dropping it on the roof. The rangers have been trained to comply by opening the can and placing it on a convenient rock.

Pamela Van Giessen responds:

Was it a raven? They are particularly smart birds when it comes to getting food out of visitors to the national parks we have visited.

Asindu Drileba writes:

Crows & ravens would make good scientists. Here for example a video of a crow showing that it understands water displacement in different scenarios.

Bo Keely, from the desert:

Yesterday at the meteor crater in Death Valley two crows perched on the rim. They had grown feather sunglasses and asked for food. I went to the car & they followed and I gave them whole wheat bread. Then I got in & drove a couple miles down the road, pulled over to check directions, and they landed outside the driver's door asking for more bread.

May

11

I have heard every single one of these more than once on the floor. This is the G version; the X version would be very inappropriate for this venue.

You’re long hope and short reality.
He couldn’t trade his way out of a wet paper straddle.
You’re bidding like it’s your wife’s money.
His stops have stops.
He buys the high, sells the low, and thinks he’s range trading.
If brains were dynamite, he couldn’t blow his nose.
He's so underwater, Aquaman just waved.
Tighter than a bull’s ass in fly season.
Your size is what we use for toilet paper.
He’s a momentum trader—in reverse.
He couldn’t fill a corn order, let alone an order ticket.
That guy trades like he’s reading Braille.
He thinks ‘limit down’ means he hit the jackpot.
He trades like he’s got a rearview mirror taped to his glasses.
He’s scalping—his own account.
Nice fade. If I ever need a contrary indicator, I’ll call you.
He went from hero to sandwich in one tick.
I’ve seen better risk management at a toddler’s birthday party.
Market’s moving—better go ask your horoscope.
You trading or just making donations today?
He’s got a 30-lot mouth and a 1-lot account.
That guy’s P&L looks like an EKG flatline.
You're not trading—you're gambling, but slower.
He’s so unlucky, he’d lose money in a rigged market where he’s the rigger.
The guy’s charts look like modern art—ugly, meaningless, and overpriced.
He averages losers like he’s building a position in failure.
Don’t worry, he’ll blow up before lunch.
His fills are like Bigfoot—plenty of stories, no proof.
That trade had more slippage than a greased pig at a county fair.
He went full margin—and full stupid.

Asindu Drileba writes:

I watched the documentary "Floored" that was about the extinction of pit traders due to the advent of computer driven traders. A lot of the traders seemed to have their edge in bullying and intimidation that was both physical and psychological.

I made a pit trading playlist that I binged on, and this seemed consistent even to pit traders in the currency pits of London.

One of the pit traders called the computer "The most vile invention ever made." I think he was just sad that his bullying was no longer an advantage. You can't insult a computer, or use your big body to push it away so you can have the edge, or seduce it with good looks.

Michael Brush responds:

Behind every computer, there is a person.

“The offer is $25.”
“But my computer says $45.”
“So sell it to your computer.”

Pamela Van Giessen adds:

For those interested in a biography of a once famous and beloved pit trader, I recommend Charlie D: The Story of the Legendary Bond Trader by William Falloon.

Francesco Sabella adds:

It's an incredible book! I read it years ago, I even saw a 2 hour video of Charlie D. when i was in high school where he gave a lecture on trading on 1989.

Larry Williams writes:

Charly D was one stand up guy. He loved the Bears and suggested a bet with a young lady trader for a nickel on the weekend's game. She said sure…and won. Monday morning Charley D gave her 5 grand (a nickel in betting parlance). She was astounded, told him she meant 5 cents not 5G's. No way could she risk that or take the money. He left it in her hand and walked away.

I was fortunate, thanks to T Demark, to be part of his Vegas support group - he was just amazing to hang with.

Nov

10

Tariffs

November 10, 2024 | 1 Comment

The Old Right Opposed Tariffs

The Old Right was a principled band of intellectuals and activists, many of them libertarians, who fought the “industrial regimentation” of the New Deal, and were the first to note that, in America, statism and corporatism are inseparable.

Despite some current claims, however, these writers ardently defended capitalism, including big business and corporations, celebrated the profit motive, and took a strict laissez-faire attitude towards international trade. They loathed tariffs, and saw protectionism as a species of socialist planning.

Humbert H. writes:

Current restrictionist trade theories in the conservative movement, therefore, are not those of the Old Right. Their intellectual legacy is more likely British mercantilism.

The British did pretty well under mercantilism. I have always supported free (meaning from both sides) trade with equally situated countries, like US and Canada, but I love restrictionism and tariffs imposed on countries like China. It's crazy, in my opinion, to have "free trade" with a country that can and routinely does restrict imports, has slave labor, no "social safety net", steals intellectual property in a variety of ways, and can chose to focus on any trade area to bankrupt it's counterparts in a "free" country. The ability to produce a variety of goods is fundamental to the strength of the country. In wars, pandemics, and trade wars the other country starts having domestic capabilities is crucial. When this debate was first discussed in France, restricting the imports of oranges from Spain and Portugal into France was used as an example of what not to do, and that's a poor example compared to importing steel and semiconductors.

Larry Williams comments:

Hamilton's use of tariffs made America great.

Stefan Jovanovich writes:

Hamilton made his living as a private attorney in New York representing the marine insurance companies whose policies required shippers to be "woke" - i.e. perfect observers of their policies' neutrality warranties.

Pamela Van Giessen adds:

Silent Cal Coolidge the Vermonter was also good with tariffs and preferred them to income taxes.

Along with Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, Coolidge won the passage of three major tax cuts. Using powers delegated to him by the 1922 Fordney–McCumber Tariff, Coolidge kept tariff rates high in order to protect American manufacturing profits and high wages. He blocked passage of the McNary–Haugen Farm Relief Bill, which would have involved the federal government in the persistent farm crisis by raising prices paid to farmers for five crops. The strong economy combined with restrained government spending produced consistent government surpluses, and total federal debt shrank by one quarter during Coolidge's presidency.

Michael Brush responds:

Smoot-Hawley worsened the Great Depression.

Humbert H. cautions:

That's not really a fact, it's a debatable point. There's a range of opinions there from "it caused it" to "it did nothing to worsen it". It's one of those things like "what caused the fall of Rome" that can't be decisively proven.

Stefan Jovanovich offers:

Effective date of Smoot-Hawley Tariff: June 17, 1930
Tariff collections:
Fiscal Year 1931: $378,354,005.05
Fiscal Year 1932: $327,754,969.45
Fiscal Year 1933: $250,750,251.27
Total tax collections by Treasury:
Fiscal Year 1931: $2,118,092,899.01
Fiscal Year 1932: $2,118,092,899.01
Fiscal Year 1933: $2,576,530,202.00

Pamela Van Giessen writes:

Amity Shlaes goes into detail about how the depression was extended (or recovery didn’t come) in The Forgotten Man. She attributes the worsening of the depression, especially in the late ‘30s, to a combination of government interventions that included the Smoot-Hawley tariff, government (and union) demands to keep wages high, banking regulation, over-regulation, and FDR’s new deal, among other government interventions. In short, there doesn’t seem to be just one cause though it seems reasonable to blame each of the interventions.

Art Cooper adds:

I also found Murray Rothbard's America's Great Depression to have worthwhile insights.

Mar

24

An alternate understanding of a market being at all time high (market reaching new prices it has never encountered) is this: "Everyone that has ever bought that stock or instrument is now in profit". What might be the psychological implications of this?

Kim Zussman comments:

It is possible (and probable) to buy, then sell after a decline and stay out only to see it reverse and go up further. This (timing) is one reason it is so much easier to do better with B/H than trading.

Big Al adds:

The other advantage to B&H is that the opportunity cost viz time/attention required is basically zero. I have looked at various index timing approaches and have not found anything that beats B&H, especially when considering the vig and opportunity cost. However, should one need to scratch the itch, timing strategies may work better with individual stocks. But again, opportunity cost.

Humbert H. writes:

I've always been believer in B&H vs. trading. But even in B&H the debate between indexing and individual stock selection never dies. I don't like indexing, but I don't have a mathematical basis for that. It's a fundamental belief that buying things without any regard to their economic value has to fail in time, at least relative to paying some attention to it.

Zubin Al Genubi adds more:

Another aspect of buy and hold that Rocky pointed out is the capital gain tax severely eats into returns. The richest guys hold for years and have only unrealized untaxable gains.

Art Cooper agrees:

There was an excellent article in the Jan 7, 2017 issue of Barron's by Leslie P. Norton on VERY long-lived closed end mutual funds which have surpassed the S&P's performance. They have all followed buy and hold strategies.

Michael Brush offers:

Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.
- Peter Lynch

Steve Ellison brings up an important point:

And yet trading is one of the focal points of this list. The way I square this circle is to keep most of my trading account in an equity index fund at all times. When I think I have an edge, I make trades using margin.

Larry Williams writes:

B&H is the keys to the kingdom, but…the massive fortunes of Livermore were short term trades despite his comment about sitting on your hands. Even the current high performers, Cohen, Dalio, Tudor etc use market timing. When I won world cup trading $10,000 to $1,100,000, it was all about timing and wild crazy money management. One approach wins big the other wins fast. A point to ponder.

Bill Rafter writes:

What we found in studying only the SPX/SPY is that in the long run a buy-and-hold yielded 9.5 percent compounded annually. That was from 1972 to recent. Our argument is that studies before 1972 are flawed. That 9.5 was great considering there were several collapses of ~50 percent. However if you could just eliminate the collapses you could raise the return to 13.5 percent compounded annually.

Eliminating the down moves did not involve prescience. You did not need to forecast recessions, only identify them when you were in one. That was not difficult, and timing was not a critical as one might think. We identified several algos that worked well.

When you were out of equities, you could either simply hold cash, or go long the 10-year ETF. The bonds were better, but not by much. Interestingly, long term holding of bond ETFs yielded low single-digit returns. Best avoided. Which also means that the Markowitz 60/40 strategy was a sub-performer.

Taxes are investor/vehicle specific. For example, if you use a no-tax vehicle, there are no taxes. Regarding turnover, there are very few transactions, as there are very few recessions. The strategy is basically B&H, but with holidays.

Asindu Drileba has concerns:

My problem with buy & hold Is that it has no risk management strategy. If you bought the S&P 500 in 1929 for example during the wrong month. It took you 25 years i.e until 1954 not even to make profit, but just to break even. The real question is, how do you know your not investing in a market path that will take 25 years just to break even?

Humbert H. responds:

That’s why, dollar cost averaging. I don’t think anyone thinks buy once in your lifetime and never interact with the stock market ever again. I think if you had averaged in monthly or quarterly from the summer 1929 through summer 1959 and then held and lived off dividends or cashed out/interest in retirement, you did well.

Art Cooper adds:

The year 1954 is almost universally given as the "break-even" year to recoup losses for buy & hold investors who bought at the 1929 peak. It's wrong to do so. First, it ignores dividends. Had dividends been re-invested the recovery year would have been much earlier. Second, it ignores the deflation which occurred during the Great Depression. In this column Mark Hulbert argues that someone who invested a lump sum at the 1929 peak would have recovered in real economic terms by late 1936.

I'm not arguing against dollar-cost averaging, merely pointing out a historical falsehood.

Hernan Avella writes:

What people should do while they are young and have human capital left is to leverage!

Life-Cycle Investing and Leverage: Buying Stock on Margin Can Reduce Retirement Risk

The most robust research, incorporating lifecycle patterns and relevant time horizons for long term investors tells us that the optimal allocation is 50/50 all equities, domestic and international. But most ppl don’t have the gumption to be 100% on equities.

Sep

6

Do markets lead recessions or do recessions cause markets to drop? I think Larry had a chart on this. Consumer is going to be spending less on discretionary spending. Retailers have already warned us of this.

- Student loan payments are due starting September
- Savings rates are down
- Employment situation is weakening a bit
- Consumer credit is slowing
- Interest payments rates are up on credit cards, cars, homes, etc.

Jeffrey Hirsch responds:

We had our U.S. recession on 2022 with back to back negative quarters of GDP Q1-Q2 2022. "They" changes the rules during Covid. Generally, markets lead recessions. This last time they ran concurrently.

Larry Williams comments:

No recession in sight with the indicators I keep…

Yelena Sennett asks:

thank you Larry, in sight means a few months or so? or a few quarters?

Larry Williams answers:

A year or so I would say.

Hernan Avella writes:

When was the last time the yield curve inversion (with the specific configuration by Campbell Harvey at Duke) didn't precede a recession in the out of sample period? It's a 8 out of 8 record I believe. While one would be foolish to act solely on this, this might be the best of all the bad recession indicators we have. Especially because it was conceived in 1986, has some rationale and we are experiencing the out of sample, Unlike Larry's drawings that are constantly overfitted to the data.

Larry Williams responds:

Me overfit data? Try my best not to but you Y-curvers refuse to acknowledge times of negative curve and massive stock rallies. Here is just one DJIA in red:

Hernan Avella replies:

But Larry, kindly stop straw-manning. The gist of the yc indicator, is the out of sample track record of preceding 8 out of the last 8 recessions. There's no controversy about this. Nobody serious has related this to stock returns. So you are trying to disprove a point that nobody is making.

Larry Williams writes:

Two points: (1) To say the curve has accurately predicted recessions you have to acknowledge it as often lead by 2 years. Wowsa!! Now there’s a real helpful tool. Gee those negative readings are not so precise. but maybe you are happy with that I am not. especially when there are so many better tools. (2) And if the YC and recessions don’t mean much to stocks, why would I care?

Hernan Avella responds:

Who said “predicted”. You keep making stuff up!. I can’t find the source, but the lag for the indicator is 12 or 18 months after 2 consecutive quarters of inversion of 3m-10y. Ignore it if you want. Just don’t straw-man the thing.

Larry Williams responds:

No straw man here—just look a the data its very poor indication recession is coming. now what did I make up???????

Hernan Avella states:

I don’t get it. 8 out of 8 within 18 months after 2 consecutive quarters of inversion….it could be luck, but let it at least fail once. Go to the source: Harvey’s 86’ dissertation.

Larry Williams says:

Curve went negative last April. you are the end of the time zone…better get ready for the sky to fall!

Michael Brush writes:

Yardeni charts yield curve inversion against stock returns. It has a good record but not quite as good as forecasting recessions. Agree no recession in sight.

Gary Phillips writes:

Not every yield curve inversion has been followed by a recession; however, every recession has been preceded by a yield curve inversion.

Larry Williams replies:

Agree but with a massive lead time. I want/need more precise timing and then—its not always market relevant.

Gary Phillips responds:

The clock doesn’t start ticking from the inception of the inversion, rather than when the curve begins to re-steepen.

Larry Williams offers:

Sure just like this:

Yelena Sennett writes:

Thank you for sharing your graphs and your concise points. “And if the YC and recessions don’t mean much to stocks why would I care?” Indeed, YC and recessions don’t seem to be very helpful or timely tools.

Peter Ringel comments:

highly subjective: the last break since July did not felt overly bearish. Low volume , a little deeper than I would like yes, but no gusto. Maybe a big range is developing, but more likely the drift kicks in and carries us higher. The AI - story is alive.

H. Humbert adds:

I agree with Larry that this time the YC inversion will not have forecasted a recession. It usually sparks a credit crisis which then causes recession, the normal procession of events. This time it seems to have only sparked the mini bank crisis which seems to have wound down. Of course we do not know if there will be another crisis that gets sparked. But so far, no, and to Larry’s point it has been quite some time now.

Jul

31

When you first start learning a sport equipment seems important. After years of practice and finally mastery you realize equipment doesn't matter. I suppose true. I suppose true life mastery makes you realize you don't even need equipment.

Peter Saint-Andre writes:

Recently I visited an uncle of mine for a few days and, to help while away the time, played a cheap guitar he had sitting around in his attic. I sure was happy to get home and play the nice Taylor 6-string I bought years ago on 48th Street (the now-vanished "Music Row") in NYC.

Steve Ellison adds:

I used my skis for 16 years. Good value for money, but in the meantime designs and materials improved. In recent years, my old skis were noticeably skinnier than those of others riding lifts with me. In March I bought new skis, and I hope I can be proficient with less effort.

Larry Williams writes:

Running shoes have made a major breakthrough with the carbon soles, etc. no way will I ever go back to my old Tigers.

Justin Klosek comments:

Musical instruments can improve over time, too — my Nord keyboard has terrific sounds (and effects) that used to require lots of pieces to achieve. now in one convenient package, and more reliable!

Michael Brush says:

Taylors are nice! Jewel used to borrow them from that store for recording sessions in NYC. She helped put Taylor on the map back then, and cutaways.

Peter Saint-Andre responds:

I bought my Taylor jumbo six-string (serial #690, made at their original workshop in Lemon Grove) in 1988, when Jewel was 14 years old and still living on a far.

Jeff Watson offers:

Interesting list of artists who play Taylors. Much more than Jewel.

Michael Brush replies:

Of course. But she put them on the map. I never bought one. I can't stand having to use Elixirs, and they got way to trendy. I have many Martins and Gibsons.

Big Al offers:

Some quotes from Yvon Chouinard:

You perfect a sport when you can do all of these things with less stuff. The most impressive ascent of Everest was by the Swedish guy who bicycled from Stockholm to Kathmandu and then soloed Everest and bicycled back to Stockholm. That is cool, as opposed to this huge multinational guided thing with computers and internet cafes at the base of Everest.

The more you know, the less you need.

The word adventure has gotten overused. For me, when everything goes wrong – that’s when adventure starts.

Jul

23

Junk bonds aren’t as junky as investors think – which makes them a good contrarian buy

Tim Melvin writes:

I was looking at BB and BBB shorter-term bonds yesterday…4-6% on five years and less. I prefer to own the bonds because it has a stated maturity….If junk market does go south I still get paid my principal at par at maturity.

Junk closed end fund discounts still well below levels that marked turning points in the past so more volatility and downside not out of the question.

Michael Brush responds:

Thanks Tim always happy to hear your views and I thought of you when I posted that here.

Ethics being what they are, people post our work. Also for future reference we do formally share with MSN so you can often find columns there. And with MW you get a few free hits so you can get around the paywall to some degree by using a different browser.

The T. Rowe manager is overweight CCC for the higher yield and greater rebound potential in a (junk and overall) market recovery, which does seem to be under way now.

Tim Melvin comments:

a gutsy move in the CCC but big returns if he is correct about broad rebound. I just want more one more year of 15%+ junk yields from decent businesses ala 2003 and I promise not to piss the money away this time.

Michael Brush responds:

P*ssing money away can be a lot of fun, but I don’t know what you bought and I am definitely not asking.

Kim Zussman scores:

"decent businesses ala 2003 and I promise not to piss the money away this time"

Jun

14

For SPY since inception (1993):

observations: 127
positive: 79
% positive: 62.2%
mean move: 0.37%
sd: 1.61%
z vs all SPY days: 3.19

Jeffrey Hirsch comments:

Filtering for magnitude might be instructive.

Michael Brush suggests:

Would it need to be Thurs Fri Mon down ahead of a Wed Fed meeting? That seems to be the salient factor. For months markets have been weak in the days leading up to a Fed meeting, and then…

Kim Zussman adds:

There may also be a size effect, i.e., not just down, but down small vs big %.

May

26

Symmetry is a characteristic property of the universe. The 24 May dip and bounce was good as it reflected a similar move 19 May. Question is will the big bar move of 18 May get reflected back up soon? Bears seem tired. Plus the news is all bearish and my brother is law wants to sell.

Getting the start today of completion of symmetry big bar.

Doug Martin suggests:

Maybe the folks at Davos gave the all clear signal, last friday's low was a nice looking pattern.

Michael Brush is bullish:

Let's get ready to rumble. This is from noon yesterday:

Strong insider buying suggests a 15% rally in the S&P 500 from here

One of the troubling things about this market downturn is that as brutal as it got, corporate insiders never showed much interest in their discounted stocks. That’s changed in a big way. They’re bullish now — signaling the stock market is oversold and due for at least a short-term bounce if not more. Using history as a guide, the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Nasdaq Composite stand to advance 15%-20% over the next three months.

May

10

…also get sold: spring 2001 and fall 2007.

Zubin Al Genubi responds:

The great bull market ran from 82-2000, but during the mid 80's Volker ran rates up to 17% T Bonds. Lots of pain in real estate but the stock market stayed strong.

Laurel Kenner comments:

I still remember the free toasters banks gave out in 1979 and the 13% money market rates. My dad lost his job and pension for refusing to give inflated commercial RE appraisals for his REIT. The California government, perhaps greedy to participate in the housing bubble, raised property taxes so high that it led to the Prop 13 revolt in 1978, helping set off the Reagan revolution. Oh how the bureaucrats cried over that. By 1984 the Fed had to turn the money back on.

Inflation can result from a complex of factors. Supply issues, government spending, demand for the nation’s products (as in WWI & II, though the latter was temporarily suppressed by price controls). John Steele Gordon did a nice summary of US inflation this month for Hillsdale College’s Imprimus.

Steve Ellison provides the link:

Inflation in the United States, by John Steele Gordon

Aug

18

Michael Brush writes: 

So the market got wind of this early and sold off near the close ahead of the announcement?

Futures down post announcement. 

Adam Friedman writes: 

Futures are actually up a little— I think market was nervous it was going to be Susan Rice.Kamala has friends on wall st

Stefan Jovanovich writes: 

The reason I don't trade is that I never, ever understand how "Wall Street" thinks when it comes to political events.  How could the choice of Ms. Harris be anything but a disaster for the Biden campaign?  Trump now has no worries about producing videos that criticize Joe Biden; his campaign can just run the clips from the campaign of Harris accusing Biden of being a racist, sexist…Then they can pull the videos of her being "touch on crime" in California with punitive sentencing for black people.  She comes from a state that the Democrats cannot possibly lose; at least Kaine won Virginia for Clinton.  In the polls that his campaign took before the primary contest with Mrs. Clinton,  Barack formerly known as Barry discovered that one of his serious weaknesses was among African-Americans, many of whom questioned whether or not he was truly "black".  What the campaign discovered was that those questions all went away as soon as voters were presented with images of his wife and children.  Someone who was considered a possible liability for the campaign became the essential partner; that is part of the explanation for how Michelle Obama became "the most admired woman in the world''.   Kamala Harris may be thought of as a "black" candidate by white people; there is going to be considerable doubt about whether black people will apply that label to a woman who is the child of a "mixed" marriage and is married to a "white" man who has adult white children from a previous marriage. 

Let's have a vote from the trading floor; who takes the over on Michelle Obama's being willing to risk her untouchable popularity by publicly embracing Kamala Harris and doing campaign commercials?

Michael Brush writes: 

If anything about the current political environment makes sense, you probably have mental issues

Stefan Jovanovich writes: 

So, MB, is that a vote for the over?

Aug

29

What's right with the world? Paul Potts is rewarded for a true talent after years of struggle.

What's wrong with the world? Lauren Upton is rewarded almost immediately from the womb based on physical appearance, but receives her just deserts when forced to demonstrate more than that one "talent."

James Lackey replies:

Why is born smart different than born beautiful? If one is born smart and works to refine his natural talent into ability, we call that hard work. But if a beautiful girl works to refine her natural ability, beauty, we chime in with "what is wrong with this world?"

Michael Brush remarks:

The poor girl, give her a break. Have you ever spoken before a large crowd? I have. It is terrifying. This young lady had an audience of several million and she is only 17. It may be fun, but it is heartless to ridicule her for being nervous. I'd like to see you try speaking on national TV for the first time.

David Lamb replies:

If Paul Potts had her looks, or if Miss Teen had Paul Potts's looks, would their stories be the same? My point was that pageants look at skin first, than talent. And, perhaps, Potts didn't get much of a chance in the opera ring due to his looks, or lack of refinement. What is right about the world is that a show like that was able to place a person like Potts on center stage, in front of millions, to have them accept him or not, after he demonstrated his talent. There aren't many venues in this world that offer such an opportunity.

On the other hand, place a plain girl into a Miss Teen pageant and she won't even make it past the first interview, even though she may be able to give the correct answers without a moment's hesitation.

Steve Leslie remarks:

What is wrong with this world is people who get a sordid pleasure and a wicked delight out of tearing others down. Schadenfreude. Who try to start a controversy where there is none.

What is right with this world is those who exercise their inalienable right to pursue their own interests.

We are told by the greatest of teachers that he who is without sin may cast the first stone. And that he who is exalted shall be abased.

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