Nov
22
Markets and sociobiology, from Scott Alexander
November 22, 2022 | 1 Comment
Markets are teaching me that Freud was wrong about the subconscious and sociobiology is right. The subconscious isn't a personal universe of abstract mysteries revealed through metaphors; it's a biological tool for groups to sort out hierarchies. At some point, how much risk you place on a trade is just a test of your place in the hierarchy of the tribe. Just as kids test boundaries to discover the rules of the tribe, adults make decisions to test their place in it. Making a big bet has more to do with acceptance than greed.
Why? Think of it this way: There is no genetic survival at the group level survival without hierarchy because groups wouldn't be able to effectively organize without a clear chain of command. Upsetting the chain of command puts its entire genetic survival at risk. Nothing gets done if nobody is going to do what they're told. Some must lead, most must follow, or we all die.
The subconscious is how we connect mentally with each other without actually hearing each other's thoughts. Through that mental connection, the subconscious will direct the conscious mind to make decisions that test your place in the tribe.
Doing well in anything fundamentally challenges the structure of the tribe. When we move up too quickly, we can reasonably wonder if the ascension was warranted, and cover our denial through arrogance. There will be times the temptation to make bets against our own interest because the tribe is always questioning your rank and right to exist through your subconscious.
The temptation to make a trade against your own personal interest is just the tribe's way of testing if you belong where you are. The market is an ideal forum for reordering or reinforcing the hierarchy. Making any bet that can lower our place in the tribe is an admission that we can't find consistent asymmetrical returns. Nature uses the markets to sort out who belongs where in the tribe.
After actively trading for two years I understand that my subconscious is not my friend. It's a biological tool that evolved to serve the group over myself. Only by consciously choosing facts do I move beyond factional control. But I also understand the meaning of learned helplessness. Sometimes I'm afraid of what I might learn next.
Bo Keely responds:
nice to read these fresh original thoughts. in addition, anything by the father of sociobiology E.O. Wilson is solid. he is the foremost authority on ants, and my Quaker Army Ants are still pulling the wagon of oats to their nest.
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