Mar

13

I found this podcast episode very interesting.

Contextualization Within a Framework of Conditional Probabilities w/ Will Gogolak

As a risk officer with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Will Gogolak was setting margin requirements and saw a wide variety of traders’ accounts and what separated the winning traders from the losing ones, before leaving to pursue his own trading and obtaining a PHD in finance and share his knowledge of quantitative analysis and market experience with students at Carnegie Mellon University. Combining his market experience with knowledge of statistics helps William create his custom buy the dip strategy with futures and leveraged ETFs, and focusing on probabilities and determining market direction for informed trading decisions.

Peter Ringel agrees:

Love the hole series. Half of speclist was a guest.

Big Al offers:

Also very informative are these interviews with "Uncle Roy", on Top Traders Unplugged:

From 2014:
Part 1
Part 2

From 2023

Zubin Al Genubi comments:

Speaking of cognitive bias, I realize that if I feel bearish, so does everyone else. You have to go against how you feel and against the consensus.

Sam Johnson asks:

Do you need to go against the cognitive bias of how everyone FEELS or how everyone is positioning?

Zubin Al Genubi responds:

Don't most traders and their systems trade and position for that past regime? As Roy said, trend followers are all piled in at the turns and all will reverse at the same time. With the widespread use of systems everyone is doing basically the same trade. You can't get a fill after the turn as we saw last fall. You have to pre-position…be in position ahead of the enemy forces.

Jan

27

Asindu Drileba writes:

A lot of Bitcoiners are expecting a crazy bull run incoming. Their conjecture is that after the halvening, a shock of supply in BTC will cause the price to sky rocket. Previous bull runs have followed this halvening event. It is very refreshing to see a completely different original opinion.

Sam Johnson asks:

You certainly don't need to reveal the source or methodology of the red line data from your timely bitcoin forecast if you don't wish. But when choosing cycles to forecast markets, is there consistency in the order in which you approach finding good cyclical indicators? Do you begin by "chart matching" or finding a leading indicator that visually/numerically correlates well and front-runs certain markets, or do you start with a hypothesis, testing, and then using or discarding such forecasting cycles?

Larry answers:

The forecast here is really simple: it’s just the longer-term cycle forecast for GBTC. I arrive at it by doing a complete cycle search the meld together the 3 with the highest fit.

Andy Aiken asks:

How do you account for the fact that GBTC was a closed-end fund trading at a discount for the past several years, but the discount closed prior to it recharacterizing as an ETF on Jan. 11? This is a one-time event specific to GBTC, not subject to a cycle. What is the significance for bitcoin?

Larry answers (again):

I just use the back-adjusted data as provided.

Andy Aiken adds:

Speaking of mining rewards, the next halving (in which future mining rewards are cut in half, resulting in less reward from mining as well as less inventory to be sold by miners interested only in cash flow), is in about 100 days. This has been historically a (bullish) tailwind.

But with GBTC being converted to a spot ETF, several bankrupt entities are selling their inventory. FTX is now finished selling about $1B in GBTC since Jan. 11, but 3AC has yet to start selling, and that firm had more on its books than FTX. While I am more bullish than your projection, it's interestingly contrarian and would screw with traders' heads as markets like to do.

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