Apr

16

That is the creature Hugh Hendry - the Acid Capitalist - says we have to find in order to profit from our speculations.

The events in Ukraine are that gorilla. They are predicting the likelihood that Trump, Putin and the Muslim oil producers will establish a Drill, Baby, Drill world of orderly energy production and supply priced in U.S. $. The effects on the European and Asian consumers will be comparable to what happened to the German-speaking world and its silver standard when the French fulfilled the terms of the Treaty of Frankfurt by paying their reparations in gold.

Big Al needs some help:

Perplexity answers the question, "What happened to the German-speaking world and its silver standard when the French fulfilled the terms of the Treaty of Frankfurt by paying their reparations in gold?"

Stefan Jovanovich answers:

They = "events, dear boy". The prediction is that the new cartel of oil and gas exporters will establish "orderly production" that manages the risks of overproduction in the same artful manner that OPEC once operated before the invention of fracking.

William Huggins responds:

So you are suggesting us producers will submit to directives from moscow or Riyadh to limit their production? No evidence of anything but predation among those players but somehow trump purs them all on the same page? I have a bridge for sale….

Read the full conversation.

Apr

5

I'm liking the look of that huge spike down in ES, out of my euro and sterling, that was a crazy move too. Technically it's nice looking low, from a chart perspective. I'm liking the low interest rate and commodity softening posture, I'm pretty damn bullish on equities.

William Huggins responds:

the shock moment is not when the canes come out - those metaphorically come out when the bulls have given up. those are generational moments related to the culling of new speculators who have only known rising markets (ie, anyone who joined robin hood with their stimulus checks in hand). as long as there are people willing to pay x60-100 earnings for hype, i don't think its quite time for a shift in strategic allocation.

this is simply the first serious wakeup call for anyone who thought this administration is doing anything remotely like macroeconomic analysis when it sets policy. according to the executive, there will be more such shocks to come so as many were fond of suggesting in mid-november "buckle up" (your 401k, and the usd, have both been liberated from gravity!)

Steve Ellison comments:

The S&P 500 has not even gone off the bottom of my hand-drawn chart. The move down since yesterday strikes me as more an efficient market repricing of reduced economic prospects than an emotional panic or forced selling.

By contrast, my hand-drawn chart on February 28, 2020.

Adam Grimes states:

Canes? Nowhere close, in my opinion. And the fact that many people think this is a crash is just a lack of perspective (and a misunderstanding of potential.) Again, all in my opinion, which may change with any tick.

UPDATE: Stefan Jovanovich has a shopping list:

The idiot list is the catalog of companies that our model collects on the presumption that their common stocks will be worth more in 5 years than they are now. I publish it when we guess that our stupidity is within the 25% range - i.e. we won't lose more than $1 out of every $4 we invest in those companies if they liquidate. Thanks to the List and others, we have learned not to trade so the publication is, in no sense, a "Buy"; it is simply an indication that prices have gotten low enough that the list has more than 10 companies on it. (A month ago it had 5.)

May

26

Symmetry is a characteristic property of the universe. The 24 May dip and bounce was good as it reflected a similar move 19 May. Question is will the big bar move of 18 May get reflected back up soon? Bears seem tired. Plus the news is all bearish and my brother is law wants to sell.

Getting the start today of completion of symmetry big bar.

Doug Martin suggests:

Maybe the folks at Davos gave the all clear signal, last friday's low was a nice looking pattern.

Michael Brush is bullish:

Let's get ready to rumble. This is from noon yesterday:

Strong insider buying suggests a 15% rally in the S&P 500 from here

One of the troubling things about this market downturn is that as brutal as it got, corporate insiders never showed much interest in their discounted stocks. That’s changed in a big way. They’re bullish now — signaling the stock market is oversold and due for at least a short-term bounce if not more. Using history as a guide, the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Nasdaq Composite stand to advance 15%-20% over the next three months.

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