June - 2021
Sunday
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
1
 S&P -3.90
 USB -0.08
2
 S&P +5.25
 USB +0.14
3
 S&P -15.00
 USB -0.14
4
 S&P +37.00
 USB +1.16
5
6
7
 S&P -2.25
 USB -0.08
8
 S&P +0.25
 USB +0.25
9
 S&P -7.25
 USB +0.25
10
 S&P +19.50
 USB +0.17
11
 S&P +7.75
 USB -0.03
12
13
14
 S&P +8.75
 USB -0.18
15
 S&P -7.25
 USB -0.02
16
 S&P -33.75
 USB -0.28
17
 S&P +0.25
 USB +1.19
18
 S&P -35.00
 USB +1.07
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

Jun

18

Do Day Traders Rationally Learn About Their Ability?

Jun

18

• Stocks are back to their old timey habits of setting a new all-time high on 30% of the days in 2021 versus 23% of all days since 2001. The masters 100 companies know on which side of the bread there's butter and they embrace.
 
• The normally quasi-useful, quasi-academic Jason Zweig writes disparagingly of "investors" who buy a stock "purely because it's gone up a lot". But that must be tested.  The last good study I've seen on that is 20 years old. I believe it's a better-than-darts strategy.
 
• The 30-year bonds have gone up 5% since the beginning of may. The Fed has been vigorous in enforcing proper pronouns and gender speech to their numerous employees and research grantees but seems to be heart felt on helping the infrastructure along.
 

Vic's twitter feed

Jun

17

Vic's twitter feed

nothing about options trading — except it emphasizes a point i made in edspec that you should never trade an inactive market, you should never trade where the vig is large, and you should never trade with a few men named doc who worked at the same hospital.
 
the sander introduced the meeting and said that he met many traders who noted the implied volatility being much too  high. "to a man" he said, "all of those former traders have gone belly up." i referred to Jean Valjean at the trial of a criminal who was going to be falsely accused of stealing the candlesticks. i also referred to davy crocker sending out 5000 posters to his constituents acknowledging that he made a terrible mistake in voting for funds for a georgetown fire.
 
Not Yours to Give (the Davy Crockett story)
 
The one good thing that happened was that Dr. Merton the sociologist father at 80 years old wrote to me afterwards and asked me for the reference to the davy crockett story so I met him.
 
The only good thing that came out of my poker playing was that I visit the gamblers book shop in vegas whenever i go there. artie bailed me out of a $1000 loss in college and he had to go to the credit union to do it.

Jun

17

the pickle ball top players have as much ability as their tennis counterparts. they all have excellent reflexes and volleys at net and seem as fast.

Ben Johns vs Tyson McGuffin - Men's Singles GOLD Match Highlights - PPA Atlanta Open 2021

Jun

17

Vic's twitter feed
 
i lost case i with jury taking 5 minutes to decide unanimously against me.  next the policeman who arrested me sued me for causing 1/8 of his heart attack. my college roommate Wes Horton defended me but the tables were stacked. my experiences in court have been like that.
 
what brings this to mind is the Virginia Chinese mom had her comparison to the cultural revolution shortened to 1 minute. she's lucky she didn't try to complain as I did. picture of arrest forthcoming.
 
for once the core CPI created more cost for the borscht and blintzes at the camp than the unadjusted figures.
 
this was a very progressive day. the meme stocks went down, GME -39% and AMC -13%. the top feeders made money with yet another all time high and the public lost big. further, the news of big guys son was canceled apace despite the Chris Harrison comp.
 
the WAPO fact checkers lame attempt too suppress the actuality of the meeting of the big guys son was buried, and no shout outs to the warp speed's incredible efficacy compared to current regs and procedures was noted. all things considered, it was a very bull day.
 
to say nothing about yet another 60-day high for bonds and the leeway this gives the infrastructure union dream to proceed apace.  all we need is some slight diminution in the recovery and climate change and union activity  will be at an all-time high.
 
it is good that the big pharms that suppressed the news of the efficacy and readiness of the vaccine until 1 day after the election is being rewarded by "Prez plans to purchase 500 million does of Pfizer vaccine to donate to other countries". a reward, a scratching back.
 
in the good old days i made mistake of insisting that i get paid in fulll for all the finders fees I earned. what a terrible mistake. i let my competitiveness in racket sports carry over to negotiations. often i was offered  a 10% reduction and I refused and ended up with zero.

Jun

17

Fans of large numbers say that if a foot falls in the arctic circle it can be felt via causality all the way to sea level in Slab City. This is true if you believe in causality which is chain of events within the realm of large numbers. Causality is the principal that everything has a cause, and causes an action. Chain of events is a number of actions and their effect that result in a particular outcome. Large numbers is the law of the highly interactive world that as a sample size grows, anything can and will happen.
 
Look at yourself in a mirror. This concept makes miracles the rule rather than exception, but my story has more meaning to me.
  
Chain of events is as hardened as #12 steel. These are the links:
 
• In 1979, I beat Miss World with a tennis shoe that led, 35 years later, to meeting the #1 kingpin of the Slabs.
• After beating her with my left Converse in a Sports Illustrated exhibition at Okemos, MI, I asked her out to McDonalds.
• We made love in the back of my ’74 Chevy van. She murmured, ‘That’s my first orgasm. I can’t wait to tell my girlfriends.’ 
• The lady’s photo, actually Miss World Runner-Up from Dearborn, MI, and me holding the Chuck ran in a SI article as evidence.  
• In 2013, my property on the fringe of the Chocolate Mountain bombing range was pillaged and burned by Slab brassers. I chased them in my faithful Converse Chucks with a plastic squirt gun in my pocket. I settled in the Slabs, tracing my stolen articles. 
• The first stop was the Slab kingpin who didn’t take nor have the booty. He heard about Miss World, and asked for proof, and on seeing the photo asked for advice. I became his medical and legal counsel for two years from 2013-5. 
 
If you do not believe this then you don’t believe in cause-and-effect within the context of the law of large numbers to grasp how, mathematically, random brute force can overcome precise logic. This is exactly what happened when I raised the shoe that caused the orgasm that introduced me to the kingpin, and all the other blessings of Slab City.

Jun

16

June 8

One woke up as if in a nitemare and heard a former candidate saying "we have to keep climate from advancing more than 1 1/2 degrees."  next a shot across the bow from the camp: "it would be fine if interest rates were to increase. and don't let this hinder the infrastructure."

amid the 99% anti-former-president news on Bberg, one occasionally heard an unbiased and unrehearsed piece. the chief scientist at John Hopkin opined that those who were vaccinated had no reason to wear a mask as they weren't susceptible or transmissible.
 
June 9
 
i have found that all my interactions with police and judges where i have stood on principle have ended up in disasters for me. I am often asked what artie would say about police diversity interactions these days. i believe he would have been in favor of a civilian corps to monitor traffic infractions. But his student, Bill McCarty, author of Vice Cop and holding the record for number of arrests, believes that problem is that now the arrested are resisting it rather than peaceably acceding. presumably the hate of police in the air engendered by the agrarians who wish to destroy civility incentivizes the problem.
 
Delta airlines came within a whisker of removing me from the plane. There were an infinity of progressive things   that were endemic and carefully mentored but little attention to passenger comfort, e.g. gates 1/2 mile from baggage claim that was cryptic.
 
in earlier days, i would have insisted that it was ridiculous to be timed on the interval between eating and masking, that i insisted on being left alone. but then the stewardess had the captain announce a warning that fbi and red coats would be waiting for any violators.
 
i come back from chicago. susan knows i'm too cantankerous to survive (how close i came to being arrested) but that's another story. worst of all is wheeling my luggage. i cant do it and am too proud to call for a wheelchair. sure enuf when I reach the baggage floor, there's susan. she's gently telling  the delta policeman that they shouldn't explode my lonely bag — that  her husband is always late.

Jun

10

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/see-the-most-bizarre-and-beautiful-animal-eyes-on-earth/?fbclid=IwAR3rbQHW-wXitATV4Bamu1xzYbyEqyjGEooEqhbATQz6P3PBnEIcogqDVDg
A marvelous look at the wonders of nature and the miracle of animal eyes
…there is probably much more in nature - and certainly in markets as well- which our own eyes could perceive…..and something to share with younger traders in particular
And the incredible thing with miracles is that they happen, too…

Jun

10

House Calls

June 10, 2021 | Leave a Comment

House calls are fast, economical, and necessary on the fringe of civilization or where people hate hospitals.  

I’m no human doctor, but since getting a motorcycle am continually consulted by text, message, or email to look in on someone in Slab City. This oasis in the desert has no doctor, and the hassle of bussing to a hospital to sit interminable hours in an emergency room is not worth the trauma. Instead, they call someone like me and we’re at their doorstep in five minutes.  

Today my two calls were within a mile. The first was a senior who one week ago had a stroke, followed by a heart attack, and fell on his nose on the sharp entrance to his trailer. The paramedics were called, made their diagnosis, put a bandaid on his nose, and he refused to go to the hospital. When I saw him this morning, the left side of his nose was gone and the nostril small opening coated with pus that flapped like a billows. We cleaned it with a Q-tip, and then I used an old trick from the Amazon that modern medicine has forgotten. We broke an antibiotic capsule in half, and dabbed the powder straight on the raw wound. It would heal, I know from personal experience, in a few days with no need for the ridiculousness of oral antibiotics when they can be applied topically.  

‘I’m not a doctor,’ I always remind before jumping on the motorcycle, ‘But call me if there’s no immediate improvement.’ I’ll make a follow-up visit in three days. 

The second house call was to a man who had been bitten on the small toe by an unascertained spider two weeks earlier. Left untreated, he had described by text that the toe looked like a sausage that his poodles wanted to eat. I was greeted at the gate by those pets who tried to bark me off, but I went around the fence to knock on the trailer side. He stuck his head out the window, and yelled them quiet. ‘I can’t walk on the foot, but here it is.’ He stuck it out the window and I did a diagnosis. The natural defenses were kicked in, with no swelling of the lymph along the leg, and I knew it would heal if he followed this treatment. ‘Soak it in Epson salts twice a day for 15 minutes, keep the foot elevated, and take these three antibiotic capsules. Break them open one-at-a-time to sprinkle 1/8th capsule on the open would every eight hours.’ He turned around and accepted them into one hand, and shook mine with the other.  

I never take payments except suppers, and referrals.   

Jun

10

This is a flare parachute fin. The flares you see hanging to the east of the Slabs over the Chocolate Mt. Bombing Range light the targets for helicopter strafing or troop movements. The yellow, white, or red flares are single, multiple, or often in a ladder that drifts lazily down, or on a breeze. If you follow the light, and dead reckon after the flare extinguishes in five minutes, you can pick up one of these to make an umbrella for your camp. The cannister by my right elbow is where the parachute was fit and makes a fine awning. I have read a book in pitch dark from a half-mile under a hanging flare, like a candle.   

 

Jun

10

After reading more about Professor Bejan, am looking at winning /losing streaks in a quite a new way.  
Not just in markets, tennis (Nadal /french open…), but also in politics of course.  Many yrs ago, I met a descendant of Oberst von Stauffenberg - the fellow who tried to assisinate Hitler back in '44.   And we spoke about why none of the assisinatiions (there were so many) work?  Now I know why.  Because Hitler was in a bull-market.

Jun

10

Diversity , native American. tv commercials at least 100 to 1 in favor of persons of color compared to steml very bull.

In honor of 4 great men, George, Stigler, Steve Stigler, James Lorie, and Arthur Niederhoffer, one will attend their 30th consecutive memorial in Chicago Monday, Susan is very concerned that I may not make it back. Do your best.

The movements of prices of markets have been compared to many things, ( I have not been remiss in this regard) , random walks, ball room dancing (darvis), football downs, sonata forms , traffic flows, etc, kindly add a few but one that I have not seen before that I believe is quite apt is bird watching. many minutes of waiting with nothing happening , then a seconds of a flurry as the birds come into sight, the best times for bird watching in markets (et) are 3.48 pm, 930 pm, 330 am . (these times must be tested)

Jun

10

Prices are as deceptive as any flora or fauna in nature. they use all the techniques that they naturally have from evolution as well as a million depletive traits that they have learned from nature and culture I shave about 3o feet from my price and trading setup. I have live prices in both places. it takes me about10 second to put down my razor and sprint to the trading. today was typical. I take on stroke of the razor down, and I not that sp is 2084.50. I know from past quantifications that before employment this is very bull. I rush to the trading setup. about 8 seconds. by the time I get to the trading room, price has risen to 4284.50 ( correction) to 4292 a typical happening . solution don't shave and spend every second at trading but nature knows i cant do this because of ageism and stroke. so its not possible for me t profit from deception. but one has to admire the exility of the deception which is recurring and just for me. other deceptions are just for you.

Sumo bout takes 60 seconds many twists turn, holds strategies in just 60 seconds. its very fast paced and compressed. like the prices in 3 seconds they move a world. what other events have as much exciting happening in a short time? 

You might think that the solution is to use limit orders but even in the off hours the high frequency boys beat you o every price. you mite think this unfair and that corrective actions to conquer the high frequency is appropriate. but if you try it, and are too obvious you could get fined 1000 times the amount a issue and have to beg not to go to jail. at a hearing concerning your attempt to even the paying field, you must give away all your rites and appeal to the mercy of the stat committee not to behead or hang you pair of pants . not tooo low and not tooo high. good for infrastructure and reflection of socialist programs past and future both sides of disunity can berate the other that the numbers show bad or good as the numbers were apparently set at a meeting at the camp de rigeur am short until 9 am

Okay I shave a pyrrhic victory so many if only if only I didn't have foot drop I could reached trading in 5 seconds. I made reasonable on my longs broke even at 4208 on my shorts. if only I ha done what I wanted to do. and I held all my longs at 4179 if only I am still angry. I try again at 1030

Jun

10

You wouldn't think that the Bad One is familiar with 'all that Ms. Lasked did to stop Immunological research but somehow they do. in 1980 Livingstone wheeler , followers wrote names articles how Mary Lasker stopped research on immune approaches to cancer but cant find these article any more except for her support of the increasing budget from 3 m to 1000 bill so I take back my post about her harm.

Boys put on masks and head for evening haunts.

I was temporally derailed form axcertaining all the harm that the chair woman did to cancer research. either all her bad work has been sanitized or my recollection is flawed. we shall see when the professor gets back. apparently the admin is hoping for a good jobs report increase ( forget about the infrastructure for a while), and they are talking the good effort that the cdc did with vaccinations adding to jobs as mentioned they were in a pair of pants.

Reminds one of the Yankees talking about how all their 159 average hitters are improving. how can the yabikkees survive with so much bad hitting in the end of their line up. apparently the algos admire the former chairwoman as I continue to lose subscribers. that's okay ill find her insidious work that helped to cost Artie his life along with Burton the head of the private counterpart that worked hand in hand with the chemo de riigeur

Nobody asked me but why is the current vilification of Dr. Cattle so surprising given that he wrote a love letter to the cattle trader and was obviously a tool of the cattle trader wing.

He certainly was one of the forces that sunk Pele in so many ways but especially denying the imminence of the vaccine along with the masters 100 and the two friends who worked together at Rice. why did they hate Pele so much its not cricket with all the meme stocks that the bottom feeders have in their portfolios going thru the roof. there ought to be a law.

Larry Ritter challenged me to find 1 000 ways. and then he would tell me about the legitimacy of the maestros thesis as he was the thesis adviser. he gave me a death bet confession and a publics that it was a fake. a bunch of old routine pieces that his firm had disseminated surely the ratio of pig iron production to recreational vehicles in Elkardt was somewhat out of focus "it s impossible to figure out where Dr.cattle was on these issues because we don't know" a fox investigator announcer of diversity. why is it so hard to future out he wrote a love letter to the cattle trader and every interview he gave had the effect of hurting those who his interviews had the effect of hurting al those who didn't receive 99725 in cattle trading . my article with Ms. Baum called out the only mystery. what happened to the other $275.one more into the breach

Jun

10

If you'd lie to see mentions occasionally to the founder of multivariate statistics and the birch back canoes of the Chippewa Native Americans do consider retweeting my tweets lest they vanish.

foxnews.com/sports/mike-krzyzewski-retire-duke will this effect the record for foul shots and defense of the constructal numbers

Coach k's departure ahs disheartened some of the constructal shooters… only a 15 point range all day and night today with a new move of onlly1 ticket from the open of 4206.

Self interview part 5. what are the best quantitive things for market people to read. instead of concentrating on calculus a nd differential equations, aspiring students should read a good book on discrete mathematics. I lie James anderson discrete mathematics but discrete mathematics with applications by rosen is also popular and good. In statistics the best books for aspirants for biostatics books. I like Wayn Daniel biostatistics and I go thru it once a week to keep in shape it has good sections on regressions , estimations  Wayne Daniel bio statistics. most of the usual stats books are much too specialized for the beginner. however, a good book on survival analysis like survival analysis and event history by d. Kleinbalm is essential. the amazing thing about stats books these days are they are all based on data analysis and r and lies with statistics. very worthless. i seem that that statistics 11th edition by Robert white is modern most recommended. a typical discrete math book has section ono logic, s ets, circuit diagrams, graphs, and trees, umber theory, counting and prob, recursion, difference equations ( my favorite, , networks, theory of codes, enumeration of colors krings etc.. all of these topics a re much more useful for the market person than knowing how to differentiate and integrate I am dining with stigler on Monday, June 7, a tradition honoring our parents and mentors which we have continued for 30 years and I will ask him what stats texts he recommends to his intermediate students and report back.

A good article on coach k's style ishttps://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/duke/article123638384.html I was going to write on his style but since I don't know anything about basketball I thought I should leave it at this, except I have been impressed that he has led his freshmen to almost as may titles as the seniors, also, his players continently win scholar athlete awards, and defensive awards. he says he picks players based on character, scholarship, a nd talent. apparently he dies. he also brings back all this players to a summer camp that keeps them in touch with the for met greats. my two duke students camp out under a tent for 3 days annually to get tickets to the game where duke has won something like 95%of the games at Cameron stadium with non- conference teams. since he is 50 years older than his players he keeps in touch with music.

What has regulation wrought and how many years would it have taken for a covid vaccine for the Chippewa Native American in current style.

There was a listlessness in late 18th century France as many children of the first estate were without jobs and espoused the theories of Rousseau. Both Veridi and Mozart wrote about the lack of work effort of Paris musicians and both walked out on rehearsals. Mr. Hansen has compared the situation to Petronius Satiricon Spirit of Mary Lasker lives 

Jun

10

Keys to game today. many manufacturing indexes around 10 am et. will there be camp meeting to lower them or will we wait for transport on thus afternoon before employment.

Wasn't the euphoria over Phil Jackson a precursor of what we now see in the professional sports leagues.

Shout out to Irene Morrison a great business woman and friend of 60 years. shout out to Rorianne Schrade the greatest pianist I ever heard and a genius. I beg of her to indicate whether Leopold Mozart's father was a bad influence on him in his waning years. and whether the biographies I love and have posted are fair and accurate.

Jun

8

Holiday

June 8, 2021 | Leave a Comment

https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/652277491995688960/memorial-day-trading-generally-dull-before-long

https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/652443080575909888/days-after-memorial-day-improving

 

Jun

8

"The fact is that, except in rare cases, man is not a reasoning being. He is dominated by authority, and when the facts are not in accord with the view imposed by authority, so much the worse for the facts. They may and indeed must win in the long run; but in the meantime the world gropes needlessly in darkness and endures much suffering that might have been avoided."
William H. Bates  (Opthamologist).  1921 (New York)
Dr Bates was a very curious man, and an idealist, and he encouraged his patients to see whether they needed corrective lenses at all (or perhaps weaker lenses were sufficient.) The more general point for us is that we often don't test things in life or markets enough and maybe we don't even know what we ought to test.  Glad to be part of this group for markets though as large institutions often keep ppl in sort of a trance and hinder curiosity.
https://www.bettereyesightnow.com/blog/31377-what-we-believe-affects-what-we-see

Jun

8

This is a no brainer. I've been trying to figure out how much the lack of open outcry is contributing to the volatility.  https://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/crops/pit-closures-corn-soybean-market-instability-trader-says?fbclid=IwAR1JeG44OrJhEDorqomj7fFmrjMSMhOuiOdrK5KCZutB63pnhKzK5DWU4xE

Jun

8

Ant Raft

June 8, 2021 | Leave a Comment

A gallon jug of water out on the ground each night to cool for morning drink, but last night left the lid 1/8th-inch ajar. This morning a 2” ant ball floated at the top. They are tiny red ants (Solenopsis invicta) 1/10th inch long and the colony had come marching up the jug thirsty all night to drop, ant-paddle, and form a raft of about 3000 members.  I almost swallowed the bolus like a thirsty drunk a martini olive.  

Dumping the raft on the sands, the colony bounced alive and instantly spread an expanding circle outward like a pebble propagating a wave on a pond. The propagation rate of individuals in the increasing circle was a foot every three seconds until, in ten seconds the ball was no more. Every one survived! 

As they disappeared over their little event horizons butt still in my view, they crawled over and bit me a hundred times, from which there was no escape since I wasn’t going to give up the best seat in the house. There, I fashioned a theory from them and my personal experiences of human reaction to catastrophe. 

Now we know what ants do, and people react in kind. The medulla floods the bloodstream with epinephrine, cortisol, serotonin, dopamine, testosterone, estrogen, and norepinephrine. The difference between blood in man and hemolymph in ants is the latter has no red blood cells to circulate oxygen, and yet this cocktail goes to every spine of the body. The tendency reaction is to cling to the nearest dear thing to you. Psychologists call it crisis bonding. But after the strike is over, it’s every man or ant for himself. At the end, they regroup to co-exist with the stronger tie of the memory.  

Though called a raft, the float is a slightly flat-bottomed sphere that, due to the tight interweave of arms, legs, and antennas, is as light as a cork. This formation is particular to the fire ant, and if Solomon the great entomologist advises to ‘go to the ants and learn lessons from it’ then man may make bubble rafts to bob waves across the oceans. During cloudbursts and floods here in the Sonora their passageways fill up with water and force the ants to evacuate their home. Instead of scattering individually, a layer of ants come together to hold tight that serves a base for the rest of the colony to comfortably mill around on. Due to the tight weave knit of the ants, water cannot penetrate the raft allowing the ants to stay dry and buoyant. They float up and out the nest on the tide, reminding me of riding the freight top through Mexico with dozens of tramps. 

The ants can remain in the raft formation for weeks if necessary, or, when the floodwaters subside they are able to establish a new underground home beneath wherever they land. I could have left the raft in the jug for weeks and it would have survived, while I went thirsty. Like people, they had bonded, and once the strike ended on the sands, it was every ant for himself in all directions. They returned to central, crawled over my feet and body biting again, and dug a new home beneath me.  

 

Jun

8

https://www.wsj.com/articles/government-race-against-a-cure-11622669124?mod=hp_opin_pos_1

Jun

8


This is a Sonora chipmunk, properly termed a desert antelope squirrel (Ammospermophilus leucurus). They are prolific out here, and used to form a maid service that cleaned my trailer of pancake crumbs each morning. Then they ran up and down my legs looking in my pockets for more. I’m known for my ankle weights, and this one is sitting on one snacking.  

 

A kin out here that I have caught and live released, by cage and hand, is the desert trader rat. This is the loveable packrat with a Mickey Mouse face that always leaves something bright in trade. Cowboys used to get them drunk on whiskey around the summer campfires and give them their spurs to lead to their burrow, called a midden, where the rodents hoard gold. Having the same idea, I hand-trained a packrat from birth to release in ghost towns and fetch gold and spurs. I thumped the ground three times with my foot, and every time it came running back and up my leg with whatever it had found. I nicknamed it Nugget. 

 

The other species staring in the face, as I awoke on a ground mattress the other morning, is the Mojave ground squirrel (Xerospermophilus mohavensis) stayed south to the Slabs. This is also likeable though less tamable. The Belle of Slab City, our female nemesis except to those whom she is sicced off, is said to be fond of climbing to the top of trailers or RV’s and slicing a thin line in the vent screen, and lowering by string a dead Mojave squirrel on the owner’s pillow, as a calling card. It is done while the owner is away or sleeping. 

 

Have no fear; none of these is rats. There are seven species of rodents out here, and I have never seen a city rat. What you are calling rats resemble them somewhat, but they are either trader rats or hairless squirrels.   

Jun

8

https://twitter.com/kedianomics/status/1401308013240086530

Jun

8

Self interview part 2 cont. I wore those Keds to my first tennis tournament and all the other boys made fun of me. and my first round opponent called out to the 1 seed l'll see you in the finals" that got me so angry that I won the match and lost in the finals to a Lebhar

I've always had several defects in my tennis game and never achieved much in the game. I played a lot of double with my father however, and always was the 1 doubles team. My partner frank Ripley told me at a 5oh reunion that I was the worst double player he ever partnered that wasn't much of a test in those days because Harvard had outdoor courts only and the wind was usually 50 miles an hour. after one victory Jack barnaby the great rackets coach and a mentor I revere contract. me for a very smart game. At that time I told him my most memorable  and stupid thing ever " that's nothing Jack, wait till you see me in that other game you coach( i had never played squash) ill be the champion at it" that remark has followed me in infamy

The 30 year long bond price has been between 157 and 158 for several months, an incredibly small range. all the talk about an inevitable increase in yields and what this will do to devastate stock rices seems to be overwrought to say the last. take the fear of the.

Employment announcement for May 7, there are warning s that this mite make the Fed hasten the tapering. but it will de pend on how likely the stimulus bills will be k, what the likely effect on the 2022 elections will be, how much pressure the twins will exert to will accentuate the need to hyper start the economy, the desire of Chanceg ardner to stay as chief and myriad other things including the need for more borrowings relative to the expectation rite now. In any case , its anyone's game and the most ridiculous thing. is to see

a giant move either way , e.g. socks go down because t because tbondpices should go down but bond prices aactuallygo up and vice versa

The fear of bond price declines which is the favorite talking point of the old guard especially is fanned by the general climate of fear that is endemic now. the fear of pandemic, the fear of service increase, the fear of war, the fear of breakdown in crypto

The fear of climate change, : all these fears tend to be more harmonious for those who favor more government efforts to allocate capital

Certain bureaus a re well known since the time of the tricky one to hold meeting at the camp before release and would anticipate that there will be a decision to eubonicize numbers to downsize so that infrastructure will be apace.

I've enjoyed the relation and narration of John Sterling and susan waldman , together for 30 years. Larry ritter listened to them rather than television 20 years ago and alerted rookies like me. But but, the yankees have commercials that make the listener.

Listener small. they talk about racism, and depravity, and inequity and make you ashamed to enjoy baseball while the world and U. S. is so bad. Almost as bad as the NY gov. commercials bi 5 deputy commissioners of diversity and the geico commercials which make you ashamed.

Thank you Native American tribal financial overseer of the Chippewa Dean Parisian for many years for followig and retweetig my humbel thoughts 

Dean Parisian your retweets of my humble thoughts to your former tribal clients tend to counterbalance mine regarding how bad baseball commercialls make you feel these days. By the way , Larry Ritters bet friends on the yankees bus were nicknamed Native American or what Larry Ritters book on the good old days when baseball was the National Pastime,

Self Interview part3, " vic tell us the story about meeting Paul Volker in Larry's hospital bed." Paul was a friend of Larrys and worked for him while Larry was chair of Ny Finance. He came to visit Larry while the collab and I were there to help Larry. To make conversation I suggested to Paul that the Glory cassetes and cds were very moving. Paul said that he didn't have a recorder , television or cassette because he didn't believe in technology he felt it was redundant and wasteful and expensive. He hated technology almost as much as the sage  no wonder Paul was lionized for brining the us economy to a halt by raising interest rates from 5% to 18% as it brought business and enterprise to a standstill

Jun

8

Self interview inspired by Tim Ferris. part 1. Name 5 books that you listen to or read that you would gift to friends every day. 1. the time that it never rained; Elmer Kelton. 2. don Quixote Michael Cervante. 3. The Life and works of Mozart Jeremey Shipman. 4 Far. side of the world Patrick Brian- 5: How Innovation works Matt Ridley 6: Monte Walsh jack Schaeffer 7; Life and Works Giuseppi Verdi– Jeremy shipman.

Self Interview part 2. :Tell us a story or teach us something: My father Arthur Niederhoffer was the perfect man. 5 librarians cam to his funeral and 7 people toale me that they loved him like an older brother. He hated gambling. told me repeatedly that all gamblers die broke.

Part 2 cont: liked to tell me the story of one of his best friends who lost everything in a card game on his way to his wedding. One day at the age of 11 , Moey Orenstein the greatest doubles handball player suggested that I play George Baskan a former pro baseball player who had a temper and broke his hand against the wall after missing an easy off the wall shot in handball. He was the best paddle ball player. I did not know Moey even knew me. I won a betting game 21-14 and my uncle Howie a handball champ said he'll never forget how I blocked Baskan out an out strategized him. at the e nd of the game, the bettors gave me a pair of Sneakers(big black Keds ) from Milties a retired policeman who knew how to vulcanize a rubber guard on Keds. MY father came into the bach after a 4-12- shift and I ran up to him , said Dad , I just beat Baskin and I won a pair. " that terrible he said. give the sneakers back I don't want you to be a gambler. you'll lose everything and become a degenerate." i became very popular in the media when I won my first Squash Nationals at age 20. Most of the popular mag mags ran big picture stories about me. They all liked to tell the Baskan story. Artie saw the stories and said " leave Baskan alone. You're embarrassing him"

Jun

8

Weekend associations nearness to all time highs, native Americans drums , dance, filibusters, unmasking, exuberance, Deidre, Matt, Kelton, Milano, pseudo science, Dr. cattle ,Holiday moves around Memorial day, professor rests after miss, new gen. in tennis, Joke to win Fr.

Jun

8

To my native American followers of Chippewa origins or other — until the Nikkei hits 3000, now 3% below and the s hits 42200, not 1/10% away , there has not been a consilience, a resolution of earthly cares, no more frustration,— harmony.

To my native American followers, the great white father dined at café Milano with Ukrainian diplomats and left big tracks.

Jun

8

Let the algo know that one of most loyal followers is dean Parisian who served as chief financial adviser to Chippewa native American tribe they should stop taking followers away from me for past references to dR. Cattle , the cattle trader, the Kindergarten twins.

Chance Gardner. the American dream, old man river, the Masters 100 and how the market loves progressives ,and why checkers is more stem and just as complex as chess.

Little known and important fact Dr. Brett Steenbarger was the basketball team manager of coach K, Duke team30 years ago . It was he that told me about the coaches rule of 10 consecutive foul shots before heading to entertainment and study. dr. Brett is one of those persons

Dr. Brett cando anything.. But I discovered and promote him 30 years ago. He has been kind to acknowledge that fact but in truth he would have risen to the top regardless of my helping hand.

I am sure he would be pleased that I use the 10 foul shots to lionize duke prof, a. Bejan to accentuate the markets 50000 fold a century drift 

Jun

8

Hello professor Bejan,, were you shooting some hopps with coach z

Professor does coach k still make you hit 10 foul shots in a row before you can get back to you normal activities. would you kindly ask him for a furlough 

The professor will be back after study period he still has a few to go. it reminds one of the man who holds the consecutive foul shooting record. he stopped at 1346 inn a row on a make. the darn gym closed.

http://recordholders.org/en/list/freethrows.html

May

25

Jack Cook writes:

UBS, Nomura Fined $450 Million For Bond Cartel Chatroom Collusion

Thursday, May 20, 2021 - 03:16 PM

As if having clueless prime brokers who just cost them hundreds of millions in losses wasn't enough, on Thursday morning Nomura and UBS, both of which were hammered by the Archegos implosion, were hit with another heft fine totaling 371 million euros ($452 million) by the European Union for colluding on euro government bond trading during the region’s sovereign debt crisis.

UBS was fined €172 million and Nomura will have to pay €129.6 million for participating in a traders’ cartel that swapped commercially sensitive information from 2007 to 2011 when eurozone bond yields soared; UniCredit was fined 69 million euros, according to Bloomberg.

Today's fines are the culmination of the EU spending the past decade probing how bank traders swapped information in chatrooms. At the same time it approved billions of euros in government support to keep many European lenders alive during the financial crisis.

The EU said traders on European government bond desks were in regular contact, mainly on Bloomberg terminal chatrooms, where they “informed and updated each other on their prices and volumes offered in the run-up” to eurozone government bond auctions “and the prices shown to their customers or to the market in general.”

Citigroup, RBS and JPMorgan were among five banks that agreed in 2019 to pay EU fines of over 1 billion euros for colluding on foreign-exchange trading strategies. Bank of America, Credit Suisse and Credit Agricole were fined about 28.5 million euros last month over chatrooms where traders swapped information on trading of U.S. supra-sovereign, sovereign and agency bonds. The EU is still investigating some banks for a related cartel.

It was “unacceptable, that in the middle of the financial crisis, when many financial institutions had to be rescued by public funding these investment banks colluded in this market at the expense of EU member states,” Margrethe Vestager, the EU’s antitrust chief, said in an emailed statement according to Bloomberg. Her criticism appears to have been aimed at two banks that weren’t fined. A Royal Bank of Scotland Group unit escaped a fine because it was the first to tell regulators. It received a U.K. bailout in 2008. Portigon, the successor bank to bailed-out and failed German lender WestLB, avoided a levy because it had no revenue last year.

Bank of America Corp. and Natixis SA participated in the cartel but weren’t fined because they had quit the cartel five years before the EU started its probe. While the euro-bond fines are far lower than previous EU cartels, they do allow the banks’ customers sue for damages if they can prove higher costs were passed on to them.

The news was not what UBS shareholders wanted to hear just weeks after the bank sheepishly revealed that it too had been hammered by Archegos, if not quite as badly as its cross-town rival; the bank said the fine could hurt second-quarter results by as much as $100 million. It’s considering an appeal and has “taken appropriate action years ago to mitigate and improve processes,” it said in a statement.

For its part, Nomura said the fine “relates to historic behavior” by two former employees “for an approximate 10-month period in 2011.” The bank “will consider all options, including an appeal” and “has introduced increased measures to ensure that we conduct our business with the highest levels of integrity,” it said in an emailed statement

Other banks were also unhappy: UniCredit “vigorously contests” the fine and will appeal to the EU courts, it said in a statement. The bank “maintains that the findings do not demonstrate any wrongdoing.”

Because since when do banks view criminal rigging of markets as a "wrongdoing."

Bud Conrad  writes

Thanks for the report.

The on-going fines sound big, but they keep coming. I don't have the numbers, but I guess that the profits are much larger than the fines. More importantly nobody goes to jail. The result is that the new crop comes along to repeat the scams and rigging. The banks pay huge bonuses. Nothing changes. The banks just consider modest fines as a cost of doing business, and the regulators often don't prosecute even what problems are revealed. 

The US SEC never investigated Madoff, even when they were given the scam on a silver platter. My interpretation after Clayton is that the SEC doesn't want to mess up markets by doing their job. They let CEO Musk openly lie and only slap him on the wrist, because they said they wouldn't want to hurt the shareholders. It was Madoff running out of money and turning himself in, to then die in jail. In the electronic world we have better tracking, but I think they will have better ways to cover up their processes.  Maybe Europe is better, but I doubt.

May

25

In the 1980s Steam Train Maury Graham, king of the hobos, told me at the wheel of his Cadillac after the Brit hobo convention on the way to an Ohio nursing home to tell tales of the rails, 'If I had to do it again, I'd walk rather than ride the rails of America for a greater appreciation of our country.'  

I beat him to the punch, and walked a few miles on many rails throughout the USA to sample what is there. Once I lost my shoes from a jiggling flatcar and walked into a hobo jungle where they raised the bottle to ‘The Shoeless Tramp’. It would have been shameful to refuse a swig and potential tuberculous. Walking the rails brought true meaning to the hobo posey over and over, ‘Hark, hark, the dogs do bark, the tramps have come to town!’  

I am convinced the first rail makers in the span between narrow and standard gauge rails laid the ties just shy of a step and long of a stride to upset the pedestrian. Soon, you retreat to an access road. Every RR line has an access road along the original 19th or 20th century rights-of-way that we walk in lieu of the track. I’ve hiked hundreds of rails, a few steps at a time, and it’s fascinating. Bed is where the head is each night. Sometimes the access road gets overgrown in the South, or is absent in the East where public roads gain the track for repair. I like the idea that, compared to walking public roads, railroads keep you away from the traffic, fumes, noise, people, and police.   

There is a small town, sometimes ghostly, every 100 miles-or-so throughout the USA rail system. These stand from the steam train days when the tracks were laid to host water tanks to feed the hungry engines, and a newspaper of hobo symbols. 

a Slabber showed me yesterday a lightweight, detachable extension he built with a caster to rest on the rail adjacent to the one his bike tires are on. He'll ride his rail bike on the Union Pacific line from Slab City eight miles to Calpat, CA for supplies, as the trains pass only every other hour. His is simpler and lighter than the online kits.     

The rails-to-trails movement started in the mid-1060s as a quiet Midwest phenomenon that quickly spread to the major metropolitan areas. The idea was to convert the unused rail corridors, which were closing rapidly across America, into public trails. As tracks were pulled, people instinctively began walking along the old corridors, socializing, enjoying nature, and marveling at the bridges and tunnels. Walkers were joined by joggers, and rails to trails has become worldwide. There should be a transcontinental path that connects to other countries with similar, so one may journey around the world and open a new class of tourist trade.    

However, I’ll wear my boots instead of a bike. Sometimes you hop a boxcar and find the companionship of a hobo dog. 

May

25

Closing Time

May 25, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Sushil Kedia writes:

Closing TIme of key contracts, around the world has the same character feeding the vig. Irrespective of whether this character speaks Japanese, Korean, Chinese, Malaysian, Hindi, Pashto, Hebrew, German, English or American English. 

The compulsion to not carry a losing trade overnight, to square off excess positions that cannot be funded overnight etc. etc. provide a good enough number of hands who are willing to be forced out and required to be forced out at close. 

If I can spot, from my back-benches in global finance a ready made bunch of pigs to be slaughtered everyday, I am wondering why wont the 200 Billion Dollar Liquidity pumps whether run by a rocket scientist or by anyone would not be already squeezing them hour by hour as the sun moves from the East to the West? 

Wondering what is a good way to structure a study that tries to isolate statistical evidence for reversing extremas N minutes before the close of related exchanges. 

Say the Closing TIme of top 5 liquidity producing exchangs of crude future world over are noted down and a statistical study of N minutes before closing time and after closing time of each of these 5 exchangs throws up a pattern? 

And then if equity index futures that produce the top 10 volumes even if each equity index contrat is a distinct entity, is there a closing time ebb and flow that is being created by the Scientists' algorithms?  

Victor Niederhoffer writes

This is a very interesting and  an suggestive post. let's have some   feedback on ow to approach this query 

Jared Albert  writes

I think closing time/price as the sole predictor is too broad and noise will swamp any effect. 

So, to me,  the first step is classify the various conditions that exist before the close. For example, days up vs down, up/down on day, distance from x day max/min etc.

There are so many predictor variables that I don't think this is a frequentist kind of problem lending itself to logistic regression and lots of crosstabs for example.

So step one is a machine learning classification model to separate the states using the closing time movement as the target for training. 

IF it turns out that there are classifiable 'set-ups', then one could run analysis within the most promising classifications.

May

25

Dimple Solar

May 25, 2021 | Leave a Comment

This may spark controversy among solar connoisseurs, however it is what works after living 25 years off-grid out here in Nowhere, Sonora.  

I’ve forgotten everything I knew working for the first solar company in Colorado, Rocky Mountain Solar & Wind, because the desert is a different beast where the sun shines every day. You don’t need to get fancy, simple is better, and you can’t spend much money.  

There are two basic solar setups I’ve used that work. The first is car camping where you have one battery in your vehicle and one under the front seat with a double-strand wire connecting in parallel (+ to + and – to -). Run your accessories to the one under the seat. Put an inline toggle between the batteries and switch it off when the car isn’t running. As you drive, the spare battery charges from the one under the hood. You’re a happy camper never worrying about being stranded from a battery running low.  

When you graduate from car camping to a trailer, and think you require a more sophisticated system, it’s nearly as simple.  Buy 3 marine batteries from Walmart for $100 each, and two 100-watt solar panels from Amazon.com. Glue the panels flat on your roof so they won’t be seen and stolen.  

For either option above, dress your setup like this:  Digital voltmeters cost $10 at Amazon.com and every battery should have one. Simple Inverters are $20 at Walmart. Always put a $3 inline fuse on the positive line close to the battery. 

That’s all. No charge controller, diodes or all those other big words. This is a barefoot solar system for the desert. 

Now I’m going for a walk with a $15 mini-panel on the brim of my straw hat to charge a cell phone, and an icecap under it of crushed ice in a double-baggie with a pinhole that melts in a trickle faster and faster as it gets hotter and hotter.  

May

25

 I helped mom wash dishes out of respect. The lessons of washing dirty dishes are:  
  • Learn to be detail oriented. 
  • Clean inside to out. 
  • Operate under time-temperature pressure with diminishing resources. 
  • Work on your feet. 
  • Stand hot water. 
  • It's not done until it's done right. 
  • It's an anecdote to confusion. 
  • It's not my standard.  

By the time I could shave my conclusion was there will always be dirty dishes, so let the bacteria dance.  

That is the point. Millions of bacteria sit on my plate overnight to become part of the next meal, and to increase immunity. It’s the old soldier line, ‘An enemy makes me stronger.’ Without them, we shrivel and die.  

AMR (antimicrobial resistant bacteria) is called a global burden. It occurs when bacteria multiply to change in response to antibiotics. But if your immune system is strong you won’t get sick and don’t need to worry about it. AMR to me is largely propaganda of the pharmaceutical industry. The theme of drug-resistant microbes is the greatest con since the original sin.  

Immunity is a natural process that has existed long before modern antibiotics. Traces of antibiotic-resistant bacteria have even been found in ancient Egyptian tombs. In fact, we are seeing those same bacteria today because they reproduce by binary fission. In this process the bacterium, which is a single cell, divides into two identical copies of themselves. It’s more fascinating to watch under a electron microscope than pornography. 

People take for granted that we need to take showers, clean our house, make the beds, launder clothes, and wash dishes. The next day you start over again. I'd rather read a book. The medical one I wrote refutes the germ theory of disease and puts the blame squarely on a compromised host. These are us due to poor diet, dirty air, treated water, lack of exercise, stress, and overprescribed drugs 

The ultimate medical class I took was microbiology because we created our own world in petri dishes. These are a shallow dish with a thin medium to grow microorganisms. You pick your tribe and inoculate the medium. The response in the petri is anything from a boom town to a ghost town. The advantage is you see the growth hour-by-hour and ceiling results within 24-48 hours. To view this is godlike, and of great benefit in medical diagnosis. You may also sprinkle on antibiotics or other microorganisms to control evolution. Hence, likely, our Covid. 

The dish is also deeply philosophical. If you add shame to a petri dish, it needs three ingredients to grow exponentially: secrecy, silence, and judgement. If you put the same amount of shame in the petri dish and douse it with empathy, it can’t survive.  

Key to this in my life is making yogurt in an unheated Michigan garage called Nirvana. The basic steps were:  

  • Heat milk over a candle. 
  • Cool it to about 110F. 
  • Add yogurt starter from the last batch.  
  • Pour the milk into a jar and incubate on top the indoor doghouse. 
  • Place the jar on my desk to cool.  

The secret ingredient is the dab of old yogurt culture you put in the milk. This converts the milt into yogurt including the probiotics that are reproducing all the while by binary fission. Store-bought yogurt was expensive and filled with corn syrup, preservatives, and artificials, minus probiotics. Probiotics are live beneficial bacteria in the gut that aid digestion and enhance the immune system. My yogurt was so cultured it should have been allowed in the opera.  

I had a perpetual motion machine of yogurt for one year. A little of the old batch to make a big new, just add milk. At the end of one year, I was eating the same daughter bacterial cells as on day one, and exact replicas of those first created on earth. It was a muscular dairy industry when the price of milk was 35-cents per gallon.  

All the while, I ate off one plate. Shake, wipe don’t wash, but be sure to reuse it within 24-hours. Just let the bacteria multiply. They are the fastest reproducing organisms in the world, doubling approximately every ten minutes. That is faster than the geometric progression of grains of wheat doubling on the squares of the king’s chessboard. Think of it as your personal pan petri to greater immunity. 

The seduction of the exponential curve begins with one unclean plate. The peoples I have observed in 100+ countries who rarely get sick in filthy circumstances without medication are hobos, mechanics who don’t wash their hands, long-distance hikers, Slabbers, and third-world countries. The latter get ill mainly for statistical data to bilk financial assistance from first-world bleeding hearts.  

If you see your reflection in your plate you’re liable to get sick. I don’t clean mine to better health. 

 

May

25

The 30 year bond, the long bond has had a 1 full point range for each day of the last two month that's not cricket in terms of forcing public to make contributions from being forced out due to excessive moves.

Demand replay at the constructal number as to whether it's good

I meant demanded video review of 4200 level crossed the plane or not?

May

25

What is best way to model probability of 9 greens or reds in a row and how can one predict crypto from here.

Reading time Ferris tools for titans again and I cant do the things that the warriors suggest there like getting up at 430 and doing 1000 push ups and pullups before going to gym as I had a stroke and was the least athletic champion in racket sports ever, and I abhor Keto

As all the best studies shows that eating a Mediterranean or Okinawa diet adds 8 year sot your life, but the book got me thinking of the most important market question now. the last 20 days high was 4227 , 10 days ago, and the last 20 days low was 4056 , 8 days ago. were now

Now were at 4156 , about half way between the 20 day ow and high, — what is more likely to come in the future. what is the expectation from here, and what is duration?

The entire ecosystem changes as crypto goes down and other markets will change in density and stability.. see Princeton guide to ecology l but in which direction. perhaps Mr. Sogi has an inside

See evolution of communication and ecosystems by Nicoal Loeuille. its all there. There stands Mr. Sogi stable as a caterpillar drinking his Kona coffee again with alacrity and harmony 

May

25

A non-handian run of 9 extremes of red or blue. thanks to Aubrey for showing me how to use snipping tool correctly.

There's still a little bit more from top feeders to take from the public.. any little thing is enough.

Reminiscing at a party where a solutuosu guest told Artie that she could defend herself form Mugging with karate she and learned. Now Artie was at Brooklyn collage in wrestling and boxing and football

To be a cop in those days you had to pass a physical that 1 in 200 passed. at the party goers urging Artie grabbed the karate woman in a hold and she meekly surrendered. That was the only time in 40 years of marriage I ever saw my mother Artie fight

True story. but what was the wrestling hold that Artie put her into?

At this rate I wont have any followers left lost about 50 today must have been that Milton Friedman article about why some who were non-establishment became anti establishment and anti capitalist. One must no use the term of their faith here. would be interested to see if founder of Facebook is ashamed also took a half hour longer than usual to hit lows once more into the breach.

Interesting descriptive fact. only once in history had stocks stayed above opening on options expirations at 1130 looked like an anomaly at 1120

May

20

I am perhaps the only resident of Slab City to not be molested by fire ants. My familiarity began with a child’s ant farm that developed last year into the Quaker Army Ants.  

They nested under my shipping container where I began feeding them Quaker Oats that resulted in the largest, most energetic, and shiny soldiers of the desert. They dug so deep that summer it undermined the trailer and the door swang shut trapping their commander inside. I had to sledge hammer my way out. 

Their training then began, as I’ve forever fancied leading an army on charge. I left my dirty socks on the ground to accustom them to my odor, and soon could lie down and let them crawl over me without a bite or sting administered by grabbing the flesh with the mandibles, rearing back the abdomen, and injecting the stinger. These are red harvester ants dietarily enhanced to nearly double-size.  

I constructed a maze of a Palo Verde tree blocking off certain limbs with a spray of WD-40 until they zigged and zagged to the top for a reward of Quaker Oats. I stomped my feet and they came running to climb my legs into my pockets for oats. Encouraged, I fashioned a 20-ant wagon from a matchbox and dental floss rein with single oat bits ten along each side. The first 20 ants take the bits and pull the wagon ten yards to their nest where, they disappear down the hole and the wagon jams at the entrance. They chew off the rein and leave the coach that I fill with oats for another run. Commanding the army is like playing General Patton.  

Horses, mules, and ox pull 20-team wagons but only in Slab City do Quaker Army Ants.  

 

May

20

In addition to the relentless new highs we saw a short while ago, there are sideways consolidation periods before an eventual break out.  It can be understandable after massive influx of liquidity, then an end to the surge.  The theory is that the economic momentum will shift to actual production.  Hopefully the supply disruptions will smooth out in a year or so.  I still can't get a hold of a jet ski or outboard. 
I am seeing help wanted signs all over, especially in restaurants which are now just opening back up. 
Timing wise, assuming the 2020 crash was our bear market, there could be  3 or more years of bull market ahead.  The average bull market lasts for 2.7 years. The average frequency between bear markets is 3.6 years.

May

20

Biz Question

May 20, 2021 | Leave a Comment

The daytraders know how to get money. X stockbrokers know how to.call and build the relationship to get.the money.

My questions are from a legalistic view. The outcome I desire is to be the owner partner in a legal structure llc? LP? That sells pieces of ownership not exactly shares but yea that's the point. 
From the traders pov.. the qualified investor legal.code is best for biz plan. Would every biz you raise money for have the same limits 30 max as it would be if I was selling myself as a spec?…
Non retail but not into selling the private equity foundation customers as "investor "
I do not dare call one of those angel investor sites to ask them how to do it logistically 
However I'm about to if no one knows here.
Thanks much…lack

May

20

Covid

May 20, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Bo Keely writes:

Some will sneeze at my advice not to get the Covid vaccine. My credential is having studied epidemiology ad nauseum @ university, and being notified months before Covid came to USA that ‘the next war will not be nuclear but biological, and it will come from China.’ Coronavirus to me is a sham, just a strong cold. People don’t how many millions similar colds have been killing annually for centuries. The cold season was my sub-teaching heyday not because the regulars died, but they were laid up for days. So, my advice is not to get the vaccine. You get it, they will just release another strain demanding a new vaccine. It's a pre-planned money maker. 

Larry Williams writes

Amen

Vaccine is not a vaccine that stops you from getting anything; It only abates the symptoms. Ask the Yankees

May

20

Penny Brown writes:

So now Fauci comes out with saying that the real death rate might have been much higher - in the range of over 900,000 not the 560,000 number  - so that the cost benefit analysis looks a little better and he can't be faulted.

Steve Ellison  writes

900,000 seems way too high. The Occam's Razor starting point for an estimate would be 504,000, the increase in total US deaths in 2020 compared to 2019, as cited here:  https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2778234

May

20

James Lackey writes:

I'm formulating a good question.  The artist question. 

I'll write an essay with my experience in management of artists. We can look at the brutal management of music movies from LA from the roaring 20s til today.

The bad question is how do we profit from artists?  That's an apparent oxymoron.  I get cognitive dissonance. 

I lived in Nashville for 12 years. I made friends will all kinds. I met some rock stars current and retired.  An interesting move was the logistics biz of the industry moved from LA to Nashville to cut costs.

A bad question was why not Indianapolis the best center that my race car brothers use.

The answer is obvious.  Artists can not live in order. Artists turn chaos into order. The hood gets graffiti then Lack moves in and digs the vibe but I hold a job. I pay to improve my homestead . Then the kids see me and set up a bike shop A coffee shop.. Then as Jordan Peterson says the developer comes in and builds condos. The property values skyrocket all the yuppies move in…

The Artists bail. Chaos turns to order.

I've had enough helping my friends turn their paintings or tunes into production projects. 

It's not emotionally profitable and we all know writing isn't financially feasible. 

If I opened a body shop to fix cars I have an artist problem. 

It's actually easier if I wanted to build 100k show cars!

The daily grind to do the backlog of let's say the current market you need painters. 

Painters make 100k a year. The management are idiots and think that's too much.I fixed that by saying ""you paint it.""

The management quickly gets the joke.

The next problem is the talent is paid for 60 hours of labor rate at 50% of the payable. So for every dollar of revenue they collect fiddy cent. That kills management.  I say that's the market let's focus on what we can change.

The logistics of the shop require let's say 100k of equipment per 1 million on gross. I quickly pointed out the under utilization of capacity is almost as bad as church buildings. 

They said "we cant" 

I know you can't but if you could how would you do it?"

""make these lazy guys that only work 50 hours a week and make 100k work more! ""

Umm omg no! They are happy. That's the point of life.

"Ok…lack hire more painters and keep this shop humming 24 7.

Now your on it!

""I can't find qualified techs.""

Omg stop! Quit blaming society or my goodness the markets for your losses or lack of problems. 

I sound like my trading brothers here when I had losses or no profit when everyone else was doing fine.

The artist will clearly do his own thing 

It's a bit more complicated lol 

Yea Lack it's complicated Allright don't go into biz for profit when you need must have artist. 

OK what if I have to?

Help! Haha.

Laurence Glazier writes

The most opulent road in London, The Bishop's Avenue, was once a trendy artist neighbourhood, and is now full of derivative mansions and lacks charm. The Studios where I am based, whose inception seems to have encouraged eateries and other studios to set up, have now been taken over by a developer. I think this will be good in the long term.

A relationship between agent and artist is often to the benefit of neither. Gombrich said "There is no such thing as art. There are only artists". https://tinyl.io/46hl

I met his wife once. She was an exponent of the Leschetitsky piano tradition and I think may have known the great man. She would take no money for showing me how to play a scale, and it was a great experience.

May

20

Majesty

May 20, 2021 | Leave a Comment

These is a beauty to the fateful way the  stocks followed  their  inevitability  today with a nice  100  big point range and everything of duplicity  in between,

May

20

The day where bonds are limit up and stocks are limit down.

As usual it will be the day after every pattern, program and system designed to go all in is triggered.  These are the ghosts of traders past.
The reason is the bearded one or now the six trillion dollar man sends his Lackey on TV at 5am. All the clients of the central already knew. We are the last to know.
Due to the eco systems of the markets not our unbelievable skills and luck we escape alive.
Days later the TV Lackey disappeared and the Sixtrillion dollar man humbled comes to testify. ""It is the long term goal of the central depot to stop printing forever. 'However'it will be some time and 'measured." The reversal is reversed and Lack goes on tilt.
We run out side with 2 cans of tennis balls or kick garbage cans. I yell that's why I'm not a Lackey. I'm Lack and my forefathers left Europe 200 years ago. You Un American non play fair to win bastards!
Then I hear my Dad's voice.
Calm down son. Get back in there and do your race.
Thanks pops. Son…win.
That's why pattern day traders hate global macro. 

May

20

Starting may 10 3 reds followed by two green and this week starting with may 17 , 3 reds in a row. Mr. David hand would say this is manifestation of randomness.

https://amazon.com/Improbability-Principle-Coincidences-Miracles-Events/dp/1427258821 I say it s not random, in predictive sense.

Nice rise in gold in last 20 days from 1748 t to 1870 

He who not be mentioned pint scout the similarity of herd like behavior of oxe, birds, cats, and humans to not having to scratch on a living for themselves. everything market move is stimulus bill. the more likely the more bull

Nice article in newspaper that may not be mentioned on suppression of science articles that are not double blind but have ample supportive evidence from social media platforms.

Its a collaborators birthday today and I'm taking her to a fish dinner and thru with mutton for a day.

My favorite fish dinner is at Sam's bush street petrale with some pancake anisette from 60 years ago

looks like I may having barnacles and whelk

Perhaps some turtle soup is left.

Thought for a minute it would be collaborators treat

There stands Mr. Sogi preventing me from ordering a full bottle of the expensive sauterne 

May

20

Camp meeting between infrastructure twins of opposite sex was particularly important as all American showing sighs of mortality.

Apparently the minutes were cryptic music must have distracted temporarily.

What's all the talk about tapering how will that engender the pickle ball infrastructure in Orange county.

This will be played at new facility in Orange country.

Very poor emphasis of slice at net rather than hard too.

A sendoff worthy of Patrick O Brian and Captain crozier and Professor Bejan https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxDkffIKzCs

May

20

Finally got a reservation at Keenes.

May

20

Ordered take out mutton, only goat beats mutton for start of hard day.

Nock has a beaut passage about the birds outside of his window. they're fed by the housekeepers and they forgot or don't wish anymore to scratch up a living for themselves. Elmer Kelton has a similar passage about the cat in the bard versus the car in the house. the former

The cat in barn can spot ,neutralize a mouse from 5 feet away. the cat in the house always fed generously by Mary would wither away without her sufferance. with so many public getting almost as much or more, on the dole, will they ever be able or willing to get back real job

P.312 memoires of a superfluous man "every day I divert myself with watching outside my window, a concourse (cont) https://tl.gd/n_1srmqd3

May

20

Often come across situation where we have alternate forecasts of an event. for example today, a forecasts based on the close on Friday is bearish but a forecasts base on the logoboal is bullish. how to combine? a good source with many answers is.

youtube.com/watch?v=SEZwkbliJr8 was asked to attend sage annual meeting to discuss why not to invest in sage stock. learned from the interview. His ping pong game is poor. he hits with stiff arm. he admires wealth of nation in addition to graham books his best friend is gates.

Main lesson left out pay attention to service expenses ,save them in every conceivable way, including dividends of companies bought, and rates paid by companies owned, be strident cheerleaders for higher rates for yourself and other wealthy. bridge is good game. breaking the four minute mile in stocks. when will someone do a study of the price performance of stocks breaking 1000 for first time, like Ethereum, tesla, I tried to do this 60 years ago but haven't seen proper study since. A file including all deletions is necessary.

A nice retrospective list https://walletinvestor.com/stock-forecast/stocks-over-1000-dollars 

couldn't get a reservation at Keenes over weekend as it ran out of space for social distancing . so we will call that one a draw . and note that Lobogola lives 

 

May

20

A foundation: we have witnessed a strake of 3 big declines in a row followed by a streak of 2 big rises. such has happened only 6 times in last 10 http://years.it could be a while to digest the muttons keenes.

boston.com/news/local-news/2021/05/13/i-hate-the-letter-s-this-college-essay-on-the-loss-of-a-parent-helped-a-bridgewater-teen-into-harvard-and-went-viral?p1=hp_featurebox a key ..she operated a phone bank for Joe Biden 

May

20

As I am too decrepit and acerbic to drive myself I ordered an Uber for a quarter after.

I read in my favorite book "the time it never rained "that most ranchers prefer goat meet and mutton to lamb as it settles easier on the stomach.

May

20

Strange as it seems my guess is that it will stop its Herculean rise in 15 miniute . and then a little negativity after that the construal's back on for a record but let me emphasize this is only a wild guess , especially when one goes against the drift.

One had a reminiscence with my latest wild guess . I wrote a book in which I suggested that practiciones that (cont) https://tl.gd/n_1srmle7

As tom said " take care of the draws and the wins will take care of themselves. ill call this one a slit win -Darwish. with the vig I the infrastructure is the only one that profits.

One is reminder that Hobo said to me " you should pay me to be around you because I am the only one that makes you look good by comparison. the infrastrue and the market makers should pay me for making wild guesses where the only one that profits is them.

Nikkei jumps 20 as operatives exit hotel.

You have to hand it to the ingenious innovator. he realizes that only way to make a sustained profit like the palindrome and the sage and all the other bilious billionaires is to become a climate person. we're ruining things with global change. reduce the service audits by 99%

I sold some spf at 1100 pm est at 4120.00 and made a few pts out of it . unbelievably from 11000 to 1130 pm was the only half hour it went up yet. as I don't ever like to be short, I read birth to a salesman y by Walter Friedman an excellent book. I learned about ncr in 1903 " thru news letters journals and speeches, Patterson communicated his theories about work and life to ncr agents. it frequently ran articles on work of horace fletcher, the advocate of thoroughly masticating freedom he hired Charles Paalmer who displayed active

Palmer active intertext in phrenology , physiognomy.. Patterson was obsessed by the numeral 5 and we spent endless time on it. for example, 5 things they must do and 5 things they must avoid. some thought Patterson a lunatic," what company today is like the ncr of yesterday.

I often tell my kids and guests to thoroughly Fletcherite the food we have

Incredibly the pprobability of Kamala Harris versus Biden for the pres. nomination in 2024 decreased today. apparently " not supposed to speak " is a sign of strength

Boys have lots of energy after "resting with cigarette"

Hats off to the algo for figuring that one out and canceling some of my good followers who all believe like me and grand innovator in climate

There is a certain beauty and majesty as to how the lobogola today was so fateful and how deceptive it was

As the man who can not be named would say " this is a grandeur in this view of life and markets

Andy Aiken hit the nail on head Andrew Aiken via http://simplelists.com 2:52 PM (1 minute ago) to spec-list (cont) https://tl.gd/n_1srmlp2

You cant have breakfast all day

Had some mutton at Keens after doing a little shorting at close. see you fair Germany https://keens.com/historyofkeens/

While at Keens one mite have been able to try the mutton sampler and the Lamb with the proceeds of that last 20 pt drop if one was not just a ageing shooting star.

" No men on horses will be served at bar"

May

12

My current project is mentoring.  I take the perfect candidates for sales. The B C students from state school. I have two requirements for them to be hired.

First requirement is they must be an athlete.  Second requirement is they have an insecurity about their smarts.
First is easy for specs to understand why Lack would choose them. The second is a bit complex.  The gist is people that are insecure about being smart are in general smart. The passion to be their best self is the key.
Path duration outcome is what we use in sports to train prepare and race. I was never the best athlete,  even in high school. However,  when I won a  national event level race, it was most often luck by being the best prepared.
I walked the desert alone for 400 days. Jesus was perfect and did it in 40. I'm blessed to have a fantastic father that waited 4 months for me to get my head straight before he passed away. I made dad two promises.  The one I will share here today is the old Lack you remember.  Son…never ever ever give up.
Everyone gets happy and sad.  The magnitude of the emotions is what funds the psychology departments.  I found them to be fantastic in the VA type trauma ptsd Jazz. I think the Docs there are forced to learn the right path out of respect for warriors. Of course I found my brothers to be the most helpful. 
Post divorce I crashed so hard mentally we began with the hardware of the brain first.
A good question was O as messed up physically as an NFL player? How many times have I been knocked out cold racing ABA BMX on a national level? How many others riding locals or trails on my YZ80 as a 11 year old boy up thru the Army?
Next was drugs alcohol etc. No issues there as I was an athlete.  The times when I chose to not be an athlete yes I would drink too many beers. That was an easy fix. I didn't drink at all basically for 20 years. Just don't OK cool no big deal.
Yet the S Side Chicago kid knows all about the effects of drugs. I know alcohol boosts me therefore that's adrenaline.  I realized weed chills, Serotonin.
I realized my mother stresses me out and she thinks it's funny. Cortisol.  My pops is pure joy comedy get the joke son! Dopamine. 
The power of Myth Joseph Campbell was my favorite class at state school. That and Doc Fordyce the 14 fundamentals of happiness.  Why focus on bad things past life issues focus on the future.  His class book and research was focused on scientifically discovery of what makes people happy.
Any cop that knew Lackeys it was for two reasons.  We had hot rods and dirt bikes. I told you guys the story of the cop car sitting in my driveway when I pushed my dirt bike from the park past the pond thru the back yard to the hose to wash it. Dad's face was sad and disgust.  
The other that no one knows about was street racing. I did an amazing smokey burnout. It was so good the cop on his way home from work witnessed the infraction.
He was red faced furious at me. I had friends in the car.
I deserved the careless driving ticket.  He took mercy on my good attitude and did not give me wreckless. There was another problem.  Yea you guessed it. We had party paraphernalia in the floor of the back seat. 
Those days 25 years ago they invented drug court. It's a good concept.  For me it was easy and wonderful.  I do not think I had to pay a fine. The judge said hey kids. This entire episode did not happen legally if you go to class and piss clean for 30 days. I'm in!
It was so easy. My counselor was totally cool and said kid you don't have to do any of this book class stuff. Your an athlete I like you! Yaay..
UT oh whats the catch? You need to talk to someone I know in order to find out what makes you so F. In stupid to be 25 acting 15 doing burnouts on the street with others in the car and you know better your a race car driver never do that on the street again.  I'm sorry yes sir.. good get out of here knucklehead. 
Mommy and daddy issues aside they gave me 5 gold stars for my mental health and attitude.  I enjoyed the process. It was a dumb kid luck to find that path. These shrinks are cool to talk to. Lastly he said we'll Lack seeing your Irish and the drunken pirates go back 10,000 years in your genetic code and behaviors family wise what are you going to do.
I got this dude! I'll never drink again! Lack your an athlete and you know great athletes don't touch the stuff so..OK 
I believe you.  Thanks doc it's been a pleasure. 
Wait one sec kid. I have an important question.  What's one thing you can think of that would cause you to binge drink? A celebration.  No dice.
Winning the lottery? Umm no.
OK how about if your hero died.
My pops no way. Give me one.
If I lost my family..how? I dunno be married have 5 kids and an enemy warrior killed them.
Ok… I still remember the look of shock on his face. He didn't say a word. I'm gone!
Twenty five years later the divorce was final. Before I knew it I'm working the 11 to 9 shift at Toyota down town. Talk about fun!  Turns out Nashville is the girls Bachelorette go to destination. Better these 25 year old brides and friends have 45 year old single moms celebrating with them. I'm sure you get where this is going.
I'm working 6 days a week 11 to 9 staying out til 3 am and sleeping to 9 am. That's a recipe for disaster. 
Before I knew it two years went by and nothing of substance was accomplished.  It was fun until it wasn't.  Dad called. He needed me. Turns out I needed dad.
End of life Lackey stories are fantastic.  It's the lighting bolt at 80 on the 18th green after a birdie. My great grand father Lackey the Franklinian printer Rand McNally was watching a Cubs game at 93 smoking a cigar. That dude went from Dad Civil War to horse and buggy cars planes to hold me then literally see the first Man on the Moon! He was my dad's hero and taught him everything is always better.  Wow…he was the man!
I get to pops. He can't move. The 50 years of intense physical labor destroyed his body. His mind was as sharp as ever.  Son you want a beer? OK cool take it easy your brother needs you too. OK cool pops.
My brother took my dad's one truck and trailer operation and turned it 10x. They primarily mow lawns in Florida.  I remember the heat and for thus white boy it's hard. When I had to work for pops at 22 just out of Saudi it was hard. Here was Lack 50 all wet and out of racing shape.
Ninty days of that I was back at the dealership.  I had a wonderful first day. I made friends sold some cars and made some cake! Day two was a disaster. 
I sold a new priest to what I now know is a narcissistic psycho.  One of those handicapped plaque people that scream about the lack of handicapped access. From what I could tell her bad back was 99.7% better than poor pops at home couched.
This psycho screamed at my manager because I sold her a new car that was really used.
Her beef was the miles on the odometer.  It had 333… I know I disclosed that. The car was a dealer trade from 300 miles away. There was no form signed.
Life is best when you ask good questions.  I had 3. What in the hades happened? Why am absolutely in Florida in this ungodly heat? Why am I selling cars? What past sins did I do that I'm obviously unaware of to cause me to be divorced lose my family unit?
What saved me was family.  Sure pops bro and sissy. 
My kids. They are fantastic. They were my best allies always cool never once got pissed off at me. That's remarkable. 
Of course they never blamed me. It wasn't my fault! I wasn't the guy that did not want to be married and happy.
Or was it?
I had a panic attack at the dealership. I don't think since the 100 hours in 91 I've had such a feeling of being scared to death, but not afraid to die.
Brothers of this August list if you know anything know this.
A warrior is capable of anything in that state.
I came home and dad said your early.  The words that came out of my mouth were from the history channel.  My dad said son.  I need you to stay in the house. Do not leave stay off the sauce and go to bed.. oh first go ride your bike run puke then take a shower and go to bed.
Like any 12 year old boy in crises that loves his dad more than anything,  I just did it without question. 
My step mom Margie is an angel. She nursed my pops physically and me mentally.
I walked the desert alone for 400 days. I learned meditation healing the neuroscience of the brain. Andrew Huberman of California is my Musk. If musk can teach himself rocket science I can teach myself how to trick my brain into production of the right chemical to produce happiness.  At first it was healing from trauma.  Now it's the path duration outcome of what we used in athletics to train the muscles and mind to race. I can do it for anything!
Yaay. 
Dad died. The story we tell ourselves is the battle of past present future self. My story is dad would have past in April 19 if I was OK. He waited til August. 
My son his beautiful wife and their family set up a fantastic wedding.  The first thing my sister said to me shocked me out of the fog. Jimmy at the hospital with dad when he died I asked you about Austin's wedding.  You looked thru me and I didn't think you could come.
What! Seriously? No way oh cone on I'm fine. OK bro.
The next shock was my son.
At the wedding he said dad your not feeling good? Huh I'm happy talking to everyone. 
Yea dad your great. 
But your not dancing. I thought maybe your not physically feeling well. Oh…
Covid was by far the best thing the economy/government has ever done for me! I was forces to stop. When they shut the car dealers down for 30 days omg.
I went to Charlotte to visit my Cheyenne.  She's fantastic a future mathematics professional for sure. Chey and I played all day for 30 days. Dad please stay.  OK! I call the dealers and find the worst performance in sales. In that business if you want to make a huge impact send a guy that knows how and why with a fantastic attitude to the worst dealership and change happens.  It's best for my bank balances and at this point my self esteem. I needed that.
Of course everything worked out and my accounts mind body and spirit are in fine fiddle.
Yaay! UT oh…what?
Well if Lack is back we all know the car lot is probably not the best place. We all know being a day trader is out. Finance blah..naaa.. money runner. No!
Sales sure..wait what yes! 
OK cool passion running a BMX team training teaching riding..yes! I'm fiddy I can sure. Yes I'm in the shape to run national events…
I'm not in the mood to be laid up for 6 weeks with a clavicle.  So regrettably I'll spectate 
Race cars! Yes I'm back. Omg so much fun but…I forgot how dumb this money thing gers I'll be 200k deep…uff. oh no I just want to ride work out have fun spectators life. OK cool.
Ummm… ya know what? I've never in my life absolutely focused on making money.
My kids could use a fund to start biz my 9 month old grand daughter needs a million for university in 18 years. OK cool let's do that.  Money comes so easy when you have skills passion and we all know 72 hour weeks are kinda fun when your doing your thing.
OK so I dig these 23 year old  athletes with a BA in anything that are kinda pissed they just blew 100k on a degree and are forced to sell cars. A matter of fact it's a match made in heaven. My no plan ad hoc Socratic method drives CPA type management insane. That also give me great pleasure.  As we both know they are not needed. So they are either totally cool to me. Or they blow themselves up and quit on the dealers dime. Any dealership with an entrepreneur owner loves me. The others simply don't.  No hard feelings as they literally say Lack your amazing but… it's not a good fit. My buddies own this and I called them and they want you.
My question is now what? Buy a dealer? This consulting thing leaves my heart empty. 
I'll put it this way.
I had a wonderful conversation with our brother of the August lists Scott Brooks. His business is wonderful! I'm so happy for him. The right path is certainly there.  I noticed his buzz words triggers he utilized explaining how what where and why are absolutely designed to provide 
Cortisol adrenaline dopamine Serotonin 
And Aaaaaa
Epinephrine 
And!
The love bond men are from mars.Vasaprecin…
Women are from Venus
Oxytocin 
OK cool so I ask Mr Vic if one of his daughters was it Galt that knows this jazz and can help Lack dial in this program. 
I've done enough work to know. I'm working it to know how.
The last step is to just do it.
Thanks and live this list! It's every state school kids Masters program here. We all know that for trading for a living.
Love, Lack.
Ps. Melvin… hey this was one shot no edit 7am gym parking lot on.my phone fyi. Mr Vic taught me writing isn't worth the profits. However toss some words into a printed package and it makes an amazing biz card huh? I apologize to you publicly as you checked on me 5 times in Florida and now you know why I never showed.
There is a desert in the Cape.

May

12

The great question has yet to be formed.  The question I have is young adults have some sort of mental issue. I believe every human does. To what extent can the Huberman labs explanations of the mind body contract be used to cure?

I'm not interested in helping with mental  illness.  We all know from volunteering with either addicts or X cons there is a line we can not cross.  If the hardware of the brain is broken perhaps only meds can keep then on task.
My question is of the software.  If a young man had an alcoholic abuse mean dad can the reprogramming of the mind body contract work? Or does this kid need years of counseling?
When reading the books in the local college I quickly went spec list crazy with their use of "may" or "suggests" and the head Docs say " they show the signs of"
I prescribed X for sad z for too happy.
What evidence do you have to report at what confidence interval that this "illness" even exists?
Omg their heads explode when I said
"Bear markets do not exist "
My point is one of Mr Vic and the way he looks at market tests and puts a probability on the hypothesis. 
I'm not good enough to see if the papers are correct on mental health. I'm not even going to try and ask the right questions. I read or hear maybe probability and
I quickly call BS. Reading psychology makes me realize ""we do not know how exactly this works but it does.""
Why don't you figure this out and drop the aderol Prozac?
Can we, occoms razor this down to the law of least effort? Can we use neuroscience and athletic training of path duration outcome and teach kids how to work? Can we make the world a better and yes a more profitable place.
Love Lack.
Here is a big idea..
 Let's all put down our side arms and get these August lists back into one.
After talking to a few specs I realized every one loves each other like father son brothers uncles. 
Vic brought us all together.  Put down the petty ideas of openess or being able to use curse words. 
Everyone has daddy issues or cane and able brother wars.
 The love you have for……
For goodness sakes…
..Out of the love you have for your best self. Please!
Let's all get back together on one list one spec party and make my life amazing. 
I love you all more than you can imagine.  Most of you know this about Lack. I do call it as I see it.
As Ms Susan said the day she met me is lack you are real what you see is what you get.
What I see and get from every single member on here for 20 years is self improvement. I learn from everyone.
If not uff.. that sucks.
Going back and forth between lists on and off list is 
Too hard.
Epstiens law of least effort 
"Man satisfies he needs and desires with the least effort "

May

12

Ag Outlook

May 12, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Kim Zussman writes:

https://weatherwest.com/archives/9141

Bud Conrad writes

Kim, Thanks

The article really nails things with great charts that are making me worry that I shouldn't water any plants or trees, so I can have enough to drink.

We normally have a fire season that starts in Late summer. This year the warnings start in May make me worry about a repeat of last summer's worst-ever, orange smoky days of terrible fires..

May

12

Nasdaq2 at 13346 and SP at 4149 .. double sogi's a rare need a telescope in honor of Harold Weaver a most eminent and amical and sagacious astronomer who audited my class at the suggestion of another great MFM Osborne.

Can you take a minute from the surfing to prepare some Kona, Mr. Sogi 

May

12

foxnews.com/lifestyle/bill-melinda-gates-navigate-dating-after-divorce-experts perhaps Bill will be looking for a Asian woman who knows many languages. . as Rumpole say:" why is it always the woman that causes the rift :"

May

8

Jack Cook writes:

Now I know why Mr. Softy owns so much farm land…

New research from Princeton University and Bloomberg confirms that renewables require 300 - 400 times more land than natural gas and nuclear plants

https://michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/finally-they-admit-renewables-are

KK Law writes

The answer is yes and no. It could be somewhat offset if homeowners would let solar cells be installed on their roof tops. Also, the calculation is likely based on legacy solar cell technologies with low optical to electric efficiency. I am not against renewables but I will read anything with a grain of salt.

Henry Gifford writes:

The vast majority of house roofs are not well suited to solar because they are not at the optimal angle (latitude angle from horizontal), not at the optimal azimuth (South), and shaded. This does not stop anyone from installing them on roofs of homes.

A more suitable location is roofs of large stores and warehouses, where there is no shade, and they can be oriented optimally, and where a large need for electricity is located immediately below.

Another benefit of locating them on commercial buildings is that they offset purchase of electricity at higher (commercial) prices.

As warehouse roofs are generally not utilized for anything else, the panels arguably occupy zero space, which the study authors presumably thought of.

The reason so many panels are installed on house is politics - taxpayers paying for someone’s social statement. In New York City the subsidies have advanced the industry to where they are routinely installed flat or vertical, in the shade, or facing North (Columbus Ave & 100st, for example). I have never met anyone who likes solar panels enough to pay for them with their own money.

Whenever I see wind turbines the land under them is being used for farming or grazing or etc. Saying they use a lot of land is like saying planes use up all the land they fly over.

Henry Gifford

Stefan Jovanovich writes

HG's comments are, as always, wonderfully exact.  Our new roof that will go up this week will not have solar panels because no one in NC is willing to pay us for the waste of money; in California they were happy to.

May

8

Perhaps of interest to fans of progressive rock, I recently had a chat
on the Big Yellow Praxis podcast about concept albums. Check it out here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yO6KK7GoM0I

May

7

From our scientist….

Astragalus root has been used for centuries in Chinese medicine and is one of those "super foods" that is so jam packed with very biologically active molecules.

The astragalus root is most typically consumed in the form of a tea, but Chinese medicine also uses it as a salve for wound healing. This is what gave someone the idea that its ingredients should be tested as telomerase activators.

But you have to purify the root 40,000 times to get pure cycloastragenol. So it would take eating over a hundred pounds of root material per year to get a full dose. But as you can see, the plant has plenty of other things to offer.

May

7

Mozart

May 7, 2021 | Leave a Comment

The bio  Life of Mozart  by Edward Holmes is highly recommended. Holmes is the  ideal biographer . He was a fine musician and  read  of Mozart's letters and spoke to all who know Mozart and  read the originals of all  of Mozart's compositions.  The book was written info 1840 and describes  all aspects of  Mozart's life. I found the   hereditary genius part  based on  his father Leopold  was a fine man who  was a scholar of violin. Mozart himself had a ebullient  persona and was always gullible.  he could write music from the time he as 5 and  could  play an p  piece at sight  or ear from   piano or violin. He used all the instruments in the orchestra and was  mall treated by  almost all the nobility especially the Electors  and Archbishop of Austria. You learn so  much and are inspired by the book.

May

7

I'll try a little against the batters on base.

Meeting at Camp Kinderland revised the numbers to augment calls for infrastructure for pickle ball et al? 

Replay based on appeal of previous play upholds appeal that she didn't go.

Relief pitcher comes in two minutes.

May

7

The river has not yet breached the dam at 4200 at the end of light.

Query: what day in April was the last unemployment released? 

bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm

Thankfully the bonds receded today from their 20 day hi thereby the bond vigilantes return out of their hiding and drink juice.

The barrel didn't cross the plane .

Apparently the employment situation is favorable tomorrow. 

Pickleball coming to orange county for infrastructure 2 mill . along with just 1/4 million for infrastructure for former president. wife library. I a point of order. having played every racket game a nd according to Hobo Kelly. I was the best ever in the racket games, — the pickle ball top players are better than the comparable camps in paddle tennis and platform tennis. they can all hit backhand volleys flat hard.

All the top pickleball players dive for shots.. I saw pickle ball played in a Pittsburg coliseum that would have held 4 racquetball courts. it had 75 pickleball courts in it. The cost of laying down 1 pickleball court must be 1/100 of the cost of a racquetball court.

A heroical Vic, Few have heard of Carlos Hathcock despite the fact that he’s one of the most accomplished (cont) https://tl.gd/n_1srmdn1

Did the Sage give his approval after trying to bring them together in following his harmonious actions in refusing to allow spouse to continue as cocktail waitress?

Checked swing at 4199.50. question for our baseball experts. especially Mr. Bastian. it seems to a rookie like me that Cole on his pitch end up off balance on his left wobbly foot. doesn't this present him from proper defense? what is market analogy? 

Market fouls 4 balls at 4199.50 a quadruple top never holds. guessing that " she will go" she went while I writing this. 

 

May

7

https://scienceofrunning.com/2017/05/the-roger-bannister-effect-the-myth-of-the-psychological-breakthrough.html?v=47e5dceea252 interesting analogy to breaking thru 4000 in the sp. first stagnation then astounding progress. story of zapotek reminds me of when he propagandized me at UN award ceremony but that[s another story.

Apparently mlb viewership is up over 2020 and 2019 . what is the implication of this for the call for boycott over Atlalnta and the market? 

Apparently coke knew that hat they are doing with support of removal and lawyers billing hours for diversity.

A meandering cataclysms on the way to next constructal. Mr. Pele continuing his pele like efforts energize opposition. that's bull. First he lost the senate . next he kicks the ball away from the house

 

May

7

Another reason that I stepped down was that I felt that if I ever mentioned the depth of my feelings against the woke things happening that I would ruin it for Yelena. fortunately, the herd feels that Woke is bull so it didn't hurt my guesses too much. by the way if there is any.

One that has forecasted the market better than we did in the four months we were together, Ill eat my hat. note that we caught the big bearish days when the fed couldn't woke it up. and we were with the weather gage from a continuous 36000 to 4200.

A typical video showing gregarious nature of buffalo that wasn't canceled.

I empathize with the diversity of not Atlanta and coke as far as market goes. so I am a little rusty on baseball. what do they call it when the batter has two strikes against him ,he takes a partial swing? something like did he go for it? please tell me as i love base ball.

The official call is " he went around at 3; 51 ET.

Guess the firmament doesn't like baseball. I lost 20 followers with the baseball checked swing. could it have a nothing to do with coke?

Interesting from the life of Mozart. they had hi frequency musicians in Vienna. when Mozart at 12 yrs scheduled to perform his opera. all the Viennese musicians refused to let him conduct or perform so as not to be embarrassed from http://Bonn.like the claques in Italy. 

May

7

Highly recommended book. The Life of Mozart by Edward Holmes. Learn about a great and optimistic genius , and his music and the hard life he was subjected to. Never has a biographer been more qualified and more diligent than Holmes. A model of Biography also highly recommended book. The Life of Mozart by Edward Holmes. Learn about a great and optimistic genius , and his music and the hard life he was subjected to. Never has a biographer been more qualified and more diligent than Holmes. A model of Biography also the river flow gets slower and slower and narrower and narrower. regardless of the physic s its not good for the top feeders there's not enough vig.

It is amazing how all the predators like lions that attack buffalos never find the buffalos herd helping. even if there ae 50 buffalo they stand idly by while the lion does his lethal thing. He who may not be mentioned writes about the slavish and herd like behavior. He writes about the impossibility of finding an oxen or buffalo to lead the herd. He likens the herding and following behavior or these beast to humans and I would liken them to market participants.

I would recommend the Sennett Aiken blog to your consideration. Andy knows many things that I don't know at all e.g. individual stocks ad crypto . would suggest that between them they will provide valuable insight s better than any other source.

I stepped down from the podcast because I am ageing and the task of staying up with all the woke as well as a market insight or two was interfering with my trading,, eating, and sleeping. I was sorry to big adieu and thanks for all the kind thoughts that were sent. 

May

2

Losing

May 2, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Zubin Al Genubi  writes:

The subject of Losing gets pushed under the rug in this woke world, but is an interesting subject and should be studied and examined.

Accepting loss, and understanding why is an important process.  Was the loss due to a mistake, lack of training, improper technique. Was the other guy just a better human or did he just work harder and longer, and try harder,?    Did you try your hardest? Was there some other mental stuff holding you back.  There are some tough questions, but questions that need to be examined to improve.

Sports competition is good for young people because it teaches how to lose.  A big part of sportsmanship is losing with grace.  

Some people really hate to lose, and it  holds them back.  I hear people verbally arguing, and rather than lose, they will start escalating and go for the jugular, and making personal attacks.  It's counter productive in life, in marriage, in business.  Fear of losing causes people to not try their hardest for fear that it will not be good enough and that they are inferior.  Fear of losing causes people not to take risks to avoid the pain of loss and the accompanying questions. Fear of losing is fear of realizing that you may not be good enough, and that your self delusion about yourself will be shattered.

Millennials grew up in the "everyone is a winner" generation, leading them to a sense of unjustified self entitlement and bewilderment at their lack of success.

A statistical    approach to losing is an excellent way to understand losing.  In a sample of  trials, some will be losers, some winners.  It has to happen. Hopefully you will have more winners over time, and the wins will be larger than the losses.  The distributions of a few big wins, which total more than many small losses are hardest. A common distribution is lots of small wins, and a few big losses which is related to the fear of losing issue.

Was the loss due to bad judging, prejudiced judges, corruption, bad system, unavoidable (shit happens)  type stuff.  In ski mountaineering, you can be cautious, but there is unavoidable objective hazard, such as an earthquake while you are in the mountains.  

There are some good tangents. Mitigation of risk is big.  The subject of luck is a good one.  There are many things you can't control: some are favorable, some not, and they affect you and your life.  Was your so called success due to luck or skill?. Its the black swan thesis. What percent is luck, and what part skill?  Did you overcome your circumstances, and handcaps, or did you squander your talents?

Though I don't about it gambling is a good field to study losing as discussed by Kelly, our friend, Ralph Vince..

James Lackey writes

What evidence do we have to support the statement about Millennials?

We know my kids yours brooks vics Stephan Gordon and I'm sorry how many others here..

Oh sure I knew your not talking about me us but….I've been mentoring just out of college kids or drop outs and I've never experienced the generalized view.

However my son does have cohort frustration.That's not a win loss handle it emotionally issue it's a work goal reality issue

Sorry if I hijacked your thread

Ken Sadofsky writes:

Is the list dissolving; the decency of adieSau. would have been appreciated.

Cheers for alice. 1939 5 top films n more. what would vic say?

James Lackey writes

Did you take my comments as not fit for British Navy dinner table?

I'm certain it is US Army Officers club cool. 

Please explain why. 

May

2

Here is another anecdote about the heating economy.  I put my old sailboat up for sale the other day.  I got 2 offers within hours of putting it up for sale. I am trying to buy another boat.  I saw a nice one that was put up for sale, and it sold in under 2 hours.  Just saw another one… same, sold in under 5 hours.  I hear the same thing from my real estate friends, and now in the news about homes going into overbids, no contingencies, panic type buying.  

In past cycles, I remember real estate going up 10% a month for months at a time. 
I guess the unemployment figures the other day were good and Labogola'd the market up in the afternoon, but the juice didn't last through to today.
 

Also,  I was looking at new jet skis, but there are none in stock…all used inventory sold out.  Looking at outboard motors.

Same thing, no inventory anywhere, long waits from factory.   
 

May

2

It's anyone's game from her.

May

2

Finally a move through constructal 42000 to new all time high with maximum of big corp capture of crisis mentality. the gradual taking off of masks should exert a ebullience.

Sound waves from Andy Aiken and Vic's pod cast of April 28 exist but no sound has reached human ears. can someone help us transmit our hard thought efforts to the public.

Some biotech, crypto, and SP regularities , and discussion of whether government capital spending trumps private capital spending, - the ebullience of taking off masks, the invasion of individualism recedes 

https://studio.youtube.com/video/YdKrnKtII40/edit 

It seems to me that the 4200 level would be an apt time to revisit all the policies that will stifle innovation ,@ the mutually beneficial voluntary exchange that has led to the tremendous increase in prosperity and decline in poverty over past years . a good ref.

Bastiats parable of the broken window seems highly apt to me. all the 6 trillion of spending mite have led to more productive activates by the public as memorized by the followers of Bastiat, Hayek, Ridley, and Jeremy Siegel

May

2

The calm before the storm. ie one had to forecast it wouldn't be bull.. North Carolina where I visited two duke students in family invaded by snatchers. Duke itself a chimera of snatchers.

Everything that flows has in itself the tendency to reconfigure its path so that it flows more and more easily" - Adrian Bejan April 25, 2021 

In a meeting with Adrian Bejan on April 25, he added a a feature to his constructal theory related to market moves that I presented to him. the theory is that the market moves thru cataracts. - a waterfall followed by a temporary reduction in the flow to a new constructal 

mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox?projector=1 

Apr

23

There stands Mr.sogi solid as a stone wall freshly grinding' ' ' Kona coffee for the battle tomorrow.

The fangs love as they know that they can handle the credits and hobble the competitors unto oblivion . what do they call it "capturing the — 

Rent seeking will occur vis planned increases in capital service rates for corps and individuals .

Rent vic being seeking galore but no insider trading happened at all time high. but quickly captured into nugatory by the 100 at Masters , the the bilious billionaires.. sogi standing tall tomorrow.

Andy Aiken ace reliever comes in for Vic on Friday April 30 and Monday May 3. Vic scheduled to start again May 4. threw too many balls dead center.

Vedi published a letter from an irate opera goer who demanded his money back for a performance of Il Trvator. Verdi gave his money back and insisted that the newspapers print the letter of complaint . he refused to reimburse for the return meal.

Victor Nasnsen following in Verdi's tradition. I got the letter with numerous impersonation retweeted by Mr. Hansen. and it was scary as I am not a farmer versed on Military matters until I realized it was a different Vic that the imprecations were hurled at.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=ek7m3IS5ftI Mr. Sogi standing tall one if sows the wind, reaps the whirlwind. 

Apr

22

Hello Mr Sogi how ae you feeing will you be having some Kona coffee later today.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=I6jk0wuCyo0 profit is without honor in his own home.

I am sending out the winner of the Galton quote today. I have winners as follows: Gates Torrey, Ashton Tate, Peter J. Swan, Matthew Gasda, Zee, Henri Huws,Andy Aikon, Venkaksh, Miroslaw, John marris. If there is any other winners please send me your address. 

Apr

20

A transition day to 4200 but then 4 straight breaks of round number without interruptus with terrible backdrop of apologia and exculpation from all corners staring one below the belt.

Transition from major the Sogi level to a minor in the 60's.

I receive a call to intern for me. Mr. Shilopez was my last intern and the next thing he knew he was eating thanksgiving dinner with us. I talk a much better game than I play unfortunately.

Mr. sogi battling the waves in Japan down 900.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=fhJl4JFXbw0 hard to take Kona coffee with Nikkei down 900.

Phil Kerpin ( dare one mention ) asks why all the sudden half of medias overnight came out against outdoor masking.

https://unusualwhales.com/i_am_the_senate " one has to be kidding"

All things considered, it looks good from 4115 to me but I am often wrong.

The frog jumped out at 4110.50.


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