May - 2021
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 S&P +8.25
 USB +0.15
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 S&P -27.50
 USB +0.12
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 S&P -0.01
 USB +0.14
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May

2

Losing

May 2, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Zubin Al Genubi  writes:

The subject of Losing gets pushed under the rug in this woke world, but is an interesting subject and should be studied and examined.

Accepting loss, and understanding why is an important process.  Was the loss due to a mistake, lack of training, improper technique. Was the other guy just a better human or did he just work harder and longer, and try harder,?    Did you try your hardest? Was there some other mental stuff holding you back.  There are some tough questions, but questions that need to be examined to improve.

Sports competition is good for young people because it teaches how to lose.  A big part of sportsmanship is losing with grace.  

Some people really hate to lose, and it  holds them back.  I hear people verbally arguing, and rather than lose, they will start escalating and go for the jugular, and making personal attacks.  It's counter productive in life, in marriage, in business.  Fear of losing causes people to not try their hardest for fear that it will not be good enough and that they are inferior.  Fear of losing causes people not to take risks to avoid the pain of loss and the accompanying questions. Fear of losing is fear of realizing that you may not be good enough, and that your self delusion about yourself will be shattered.

Millennials grew up in the "everyone is a winner" generation, leading them to a sense of unjustified self entitlement and bewilderment at their lack of success.

A statistical    approach to losing is an excellent way to understand losing.  In a sample of  trials, some will be losers, some winners.  It has to happen. Hopefully you will have more winners over time, and the wins will be larger than the losses.  The distributions of a few big wins, which total more than many small losses are hardest. A common distribution is lots of small wins, and a few big losses which is related to the fear of losing issue.

Was the loss due to bad judging, prejudiced judges, corruption, bad system, unavoidable (shit happens)  type stuff.  In ski mountaineering, you can be cautious, but there is unavoidable objective hazard, such as an earthquake while you are in the mountains.  

There are some good tangents. Mitigation of risk is big.  The subject of luck is a good one.  There are many things you can't control: some are favorable, some not, and they affect you and your life.  Was your so called success due to luck or skill?. Its the black swan thesis. What percent is luck, and what part skill?  Did you overcome your circumstances, and handcaps, or did you squander your talents?

Though I don't about it gambling is a good field to study losing as discussed by Kelly, our friend, Ralph Vince..

James Lackey writes

What evidence do we have to support the statement about Millennials?

We know my kids yours brooks vics Stephan Gordon and I'm sorry how many others here..

Oh sure I knew your not talking about me us but….I've been mentoring just out of college kids or drop outs and I've never experienced the generalized view.

However my son does have cohort frustration.That's not a win loss handle it emotionally issue it's a work goal reality issue

Sorry if I hijacked your thread

Ken Sadofsky writes:

Is the list dissolving; the decency of adieSau. would have been appreciated.

Cheers for alice. 1939 5 top films n more. what would vic say?

James Lackey writes

Did you take my comments as not fit for British Navy dinner table?

I'm certain it is US Army Officers club cool. 

Please explain why. 

May

2

Here is another anecdote about the heating economy.  I put my old sailboat up for sale the other day.  I got 2 offers within hours of putting it up for sale. I am trying to buy another boat.  I saw a nice one that was put up for sale, and it sold in under 2 hours.  Just saw another one… same, sold in under 5 hours.  I hear the same thing from my real estate friends, and now in the news about homes going into overbids, no contingencies, panic type buying.  

In past cycles, I remember real estate going up 10% a month for months at a time. 
I guess the unemployment figures the other day were good and Labogola'd the market up in the afternoon, but the juice didn't last through to today.
 

Also,  I was looking at new jet skis, but there are none in stock…all used inventory sold out.  Looking at outboard motors.

Same thing, no inventory anywhere, long waits from factory.   
 

May

2

It's anyone's game from her.

May

2

Finally a move through constructal 42000 to new all time high with maximum of big corp capture of crisis mentality. the gradual taking off of masks should exert a ebullience.

Sound waves from Andy Aiken and Vic's pod cast of April 28 exist but no sound has reached human ears. can someone help us transmit our hard thought efforts to the public.

Some biotech, crypto, and SP regularities , and discussion of whether government capital spending trumps private capital spending, - the ebullience of taking off masks, the invasion of individualism recedes 

https://studio.youtube.com/video/YdKrnKtII40/edit 

It seems to me that the 4200 level would be an apt time to revisit all the policies that will stifle innovation ,@ the mutually beneficial voluntary exchange that has led to the tremendous increase in prosperity and decline in poverty over past years . a good ref.

Bastiats parable of the broken window seems highly apt to me. all the 6 trillion of spending mite have led to more productive activates by the public as memorized by the followers of Bastiat, Hayek, Ridley, and Jeremy Siegel

May

2

The calm before the storm. ie one had to forecast it wouldn't be bull.. North Carolina where I visited two duke students in family invaded by snatchers. Duke itself a chimera of snatchers.

Everything that flows has in itself the tendency to reconfigure its path so that it flows more and more easily" - Adrian Bejan April 25, 2021 

In a meeting with Adrian Bejan on April 25, he added a a feature to his constructal theory related to market moves that I presented to him. the theory is that the market moves thru cataracts. - a waterfall followed by a temporary reduction in the flow to a new constructal 

mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox?projector=1 

Apr

23

There stands Mr.sogi solid as a stone wall freshly grinding' ' ' Kona coffee for the battle tomorrow.

The fangs love as they know that they can handle the credits and hobble the competitors unto oblivion . what do they call it "capturing the — 

Rent seeking will occur vis planned increases in capital service rates for corps and individuals .

Rent vic being seeking galore but no insider trading happened at all time high. but quickly captured into nugatory by the 100 at Masters , the the bilious billionaires.. sogi standing tall tomorrow.

Andy Aiken ace reliever comes in for Vic on Friday April 30 and Monday May 3. Vic scheduled to start again May 4. threw too many balls dead center.

Vedi published a letter from an irate opera goer who demanded his money back for a performance of Il Trvator. Verdi gave his money back and insisted that the newspapers print the letter of complaint . he refused to reimburse for the return meal.

Victor Nasnsen following in Verdi's tradition. I got the letter with numerous impersonation retweeted by Mr. Hansen. and it was scary as I am not a farmer versed on Military matters until I realized it was a different Vic that the imprecations were hurled at.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=ek7m3IS5ftI Mr. Sogi standing tall one if sows the wind, reaps the whirlwind. 

Apr

22

Hello Mr Sogi how ae you feeing will you be having some Kona coffee later today.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=I6jk0wuCyo0 profit is without honor in his own home.

I am sending out the winner of the Galton quote today. I have winners as follows: Gates Torrey, Ashton Tate, Peter J. Swan, Matthew Gasda, Zee, Henri Huws,Andy Aikon, Venkaksh, Miroslaw, John marris. If there is any other winners please send me your address. 

Apr

20

A transition day to 4200 but then 4 straight breaks of round number without interruptus with terrible backdrop of apologia and exculpation from all corners staring one below the belt.

Transition from major the Sogi level to a minor in the 60's.

I receive a call to intern for me. Mr. Shilopez was my last intern and the next thing he knew he was eating thanksgiving dinner with us. I talk a much better game than I play unfortunately.

Mr. sogi battling the waves in Japan down 900.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=fhJl4JFXbw0 hard to take Kona coffee with Nikkei down 900.

Phil Kerpin ( dare one mention ) asks why all the sudden half of medias overnight came out against outdoor masking.

https://unusualwhales.com/i_am_the_senate " one has to be kidding"

All things considered, it looks good from 4115 to me but I am often wrong.

The frog jumped out at 4110.50.

Apr

19

Jeffrey Watson writes:

I've been thinking a lot about the old physics demo on how metronomes will sync up. I'm wondering if there are any market lessons.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T58lGKREubo

Leo Jia writes

More explanations here: https://youtu.be/t-_VPRCtiUg

Apr

19

Just to clarify the contructals up to 3200 sp futures June are bull . One apologizes for the typos.

It's still possible to make a fortune in tech http://paulgraham.com/richnow.html?curator=MediaREDEF 

Apr

19

The more progressive it gets in the future the more bull it becomes up to 3400. However a look at political economists from Smith to Misses to Hayek to Mises to Ridley is sobering.

https://amazon.com/How-Innovation-Works-Flourishes-Freedom/dp/B07Y8R2GV8/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=how+innovation+works&qid=1618708847&sr=8-1a highly recommended. Informative book with respect to progressive spending versus the market. .the example if the 30 million test of the foregoing in 1940 where the long distance plane sponsored by the former group crashed is highly resonant.

As my tweets could be misinterpreted by the pessimists and the crisis mongers, please remember my request to retweet any thing you find worthy of communication rather than liking it et al 

Apr

19

Very useful interview with Andy Aiken on all things crypto.

studio.youtube.com/video/f07qX-2xIPE/edit very greenish day so far after long scan of green and yellow up days in SP.

Apr

16

studio.youtube.com/video/yqPeBzKLR9k/ed what happens when a streak ends? Lou Gehrig versus Pele, turn in Thursday at 520 for great interview with Andrew Aiken

Apr

14

This isn't cricket so far range of 10 ppts doesn't give top feeders any extra profits from forcing the weak out.. night eminis even less volatile and less profitable for strong.

He crossed the line of campers at Kinidergard last time. must say economy weak this time to be chosen for red team.

Anything to get more stimulus in tribute to those below the median.

Free associations —break from masters tournament via zoom, how dependent a and resentful are you, , you cant afford lobbyists, lawyer any service critics and subsidies for me, one down day, that was dirty trick against CNN manager,, truth serum with a sparrow.

Apr

13

Everything was up today. All the feedback loops are positive. the most bullish thing of all is that now the professional sports leagues and their followers in the big corps will have yet another reason to be one with the idea that has the world in its grip.

As Ridley says the leaders who show the most empathy and are against the most will win the McCartur award or even the Nobel peace award.

And the market's being up 10 days in a row, close toc lose, and 13 items open to close in a row, is quite bullish,4200 SP and of course 30000 Nikkei are in the sights and have the weather gage. and the reasons are exponentially increased by the violence of yesterday.

One demur for asking a favor. but– I have a lot of friends on this site built yup with mutual trust and I believe benefit over many year. but no matter what I tweet, I am losing followers. I believe it is because the algorithms mistakenly believe that I am not woke enough and worse yet I like baseball and the former captain of the Yale baseball team who's edging above the famous sharp golf player. For example when I tweeted that we should all celebrate the Market breaking thru 3100 in the face of tremendous obstacles. I received the greatest response ever for me over 12000 impressions. Yet I lost many subscribers that day. I don't believe it was the bears who gave up on me. Apparently I demurred to the words " stop it, stop it regarding a baseball refraction. Similarly when I allude toe he who must not be mentioned.

For example his suggestion that a traveler in the bush secrete a silver flask with a diamond in lest he be robbed and have no wherewithal l left ( but as Stigler says " beware that you don't get skinned alive in the search for more secreted valuables" 

In any case the favor is this kindly instead of impressioning my tweets or liking it, kindly retweet it. In that way I will counter balance the cascade of algorithmic losses of friend subscribers and will be able to continue tweeting with dignity. Thank you. 

Apr

12

Adventure is strictly probability to me. It rarely occurs as a surprise. I intentionally put myself into risky positions after calculating that beyond a reasonable doubt nothing can be anticipated but situations will crop up that I can survive. Before each outing, the odds of mishaps are analyzed, and for each downside the worst scenario. Sometimes it may be as minimal as leaving one’s comfort zone to injury or sickness, and through-near death or beyond. In five minutes, before buying a ticket or sticking out a thumb to the next escapade, I know exactly what I’m facing. This is tremendous relief. The adventure happens. It is examined and learned from. Probability itself is a beautiful adventure, guiding all avenues from business to sport and romance. I suggest starting with Probability for Dummies and progressing the tenets until the mind defaults to the most rational decisions.  

Apr

12

Adventure Probability interesting application of probably to his one field from Hobo Adventure is strictly (cont) https://tl.gd/n_1srlhfh.

A review of a travel book by he whose name may not be mentioned " do not profess to receive hints for a trip (cont) https://tl.gd/n_1srlhp3 

The top feeders in the ecosystem received a breath of fresh air from the Huang loss of 5 billion and it provided energy for the markets recent and unprecedented rise thru two round numbers. this is typical when a player is margined out bit. one should make a history of such.

Recently 2 companies whose culture was faith based have received considerable attention. Huan and Wework. One should make a study of companies whose culture is based in large part on faith and look at their sub performance. what is good source for faith based companies?

Predictive correlation of faith with subsequent performance seems mixed.

If Mr Bassett wished to be briefed on how to cross a river by holding on to a horses tail and other brilliances he should follow the art of -travel

Use number 35 for a hat. "if a traveler can swim pretty well it is a good idea to make a float when he wishes to cross a river and to lay his breat on it while his valuables are enclosed in a large turban on his head" from an ingenious gentleman whose name not mentioned.

Quote of day " I have observed that not the man who hopes when others despair , but the man who despairs when others hope is admired by a large class of persons as a sage" Jsmill quoted by Matt Ridley in his highly recommended book " the Rational Optimist" .

Apr

12

Proverb of day. Be careful of the opportunity that is knocking may in fact be defeat cloaked in the guise of victory.

Shout out to Lrene Morrison for resilient performance. 5o years ago she ran two companies select a sprint and American almond and did heroic jobs.. Alan millhone played in college checker tournament 50 years ago and is now fine player and president of American checker federation.

 

Apr

10

Zubin Al Genubi writes:

The all time usual rate is about 4% as I recall.

Jared Albert writes

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2020/eight-centuries-of-global-real-interest-rates-r-g-and-the-suprasecular-decline-1311-2018

The graphs are a ton of fun to flip through.

Apr

10

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2020/eight-centuries-of-global-real-interest-rates-r-g-and-the-suprasecular-decline-1311-2018
The graphs are a ton of fun to flip through.
On Thursday, April 8, 2021, 06:54:39 PM EDT, Zubin Al Genubi <zubin.al.genubi@gmail.com> wrote:
The all time usual rate is about 4% as I recall.

Apr

10

Headquarters, Army of Northern Virginia, 10th April 1865.
General Order
No. 9
After four years of arduous service marked by unsurpassed courage and fortitude, the Army of Northern Virginia has been compelled to yield to overwhelming numbers and resources.
I need not tell the survivors of so many hard fought battles, who have remained steadfast to the last, that I have consented to the result from no distrust of them.
But feeling that valour and devotion could accomplish nothing that could compensate for the loss that must have attended the continuance of the contest, I have determined to avoid the useless sacrifice of those whose past services have endeared them to their countrymen.
By the terms of the agreement, officers and men can return to their homes and remain until exchanged. You will take with you the satisfaction that proceeds from the consciousness of duty faithfully performed, and I earnestly pray that a merciful God will extend to you his blessing and protection.
With an unceasing admiration of your constancy and devotion to your Country, and a grateful remembrance of your kind and generous consideration for myself, I bid you an affectionate farewell.
— R. E. Lee, General, General Order No. 9[

Apr

10

James Michener

April 10, 2021 | Leave a Comment

James Michener is the most prolific producer of tomes on my passion of travel. His best is the nearly forgotten 'The Drifters' dealing with what I have lectured to outfitting stores that the world is an anthill of travelers under backpacks who, because their trails cross frequently around the globe, meet each other continually. One sees the same person in South Africa that he saw in Japan. This would seem mathematically impossible without the idea of large numbers, and is proven true. Michener's autobiography 'The World is my Home' is also worth reading. I am not fond of the rest of his works, novels, due to excessive dialogue; however, I read them after traveling to the specific regions which is a lot of books having visited 105 countries and makes fun reading. 
The Drifters      https://www.amazon.com/Drifters-Novel-James-Michener-ebook/dp/B00H6JHMHM/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=the+drifters+michener&qid=1617982988&sr=8-1

'The World is My Home'   https://www.amazon.com/World-My-Home-Memoir-ebook/dp/B00H6JHOX4/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=the+world+is+my+home+michener&qid=1617983151&sr=8-1

Apr

10

An interesting recommendation from the Hobo Michener is the most prolific producer of tomes on my passion of (cont) https://tl.gd/n_1srlffc

Apr

8

The signs of gentrification at Slab City are everywhere. The first to pop out at the hot spring are tattoos. When I moved here seven years ago, you could judge a person by his cover when his tattoos jumped at you like Ray Bradberry’s ‘Illustrated Man’ where each represented an event in a person’s life. Most of them were of prison art, martial arts, and road tales. Now during gentrification, they represent the dreams of newcomers. Today a senior with an hourglass figure inquired of mine. I described the mouse with a smile and teardrop tells of the pathos of the road; the tarantula crawled on me from a sidewalk in Brazil; and the marijuana leaf out the pen of a Hong Kong artist who didn’t have maple in his vocabulary. ‘That completes the set of fauna, flora and insect,’ I explained expecting a tumble in the weeds until she sniffed, swam off, and had judged me less than a he-man. 

Gentrification has altered Berkeley, Venice, Brooklyn and Aspen but nothing like the Slabs in the past year.  I miss the old days when spartan conditions brought out that nature in the residents. When I moved here seven years ago there were no generators, few solar, next-to-no cash, which meant no booze, no hostel or Airbnb, and the green barter was marijuana. There were no cars except my rental used to chase the bad guys who robbed my property across the bombing to the Slabs where I settled because there was no place else to go. Everyone was thirsty and looked like stick figures. 

The cause of gentrification is different from anywhere else – pandemic unemployment assistance. For one year nearly every resident in the outlaw resort has gone from penniless to become unemployed in a manner that was affected by the virus. Some reported they mow concrete Slabs from WWII that the tourists no longer visit, and only recently has the county’s biggest roadside attraction Salvation Mountain started admitting tourist with masks. Today there is $3 million and its products floating around the Slabs with a population quadrupled by COVID refugees from all corners of the nation. The reason is the one-square mile town via the internet is advertised as sneeze-free and rent-free. 

It is disease free but the signals of gentrification are like Burma-Shave. 

 

 

 

Signs aside, gentrification is a process of neighborhood change in a historically disinvested area due to a boon or new higher-income residents moving in. Most gentrified towns hang on and have led to the nation’s overall ‘back-to-the-city’ trend. But one warm summer and the halt of pandemic assistance will restore our historic conditions. The best the world offers is change and it’s a rare privilege to live here at this time.  

Apr

8

Patrick Boyle  writes:

The article states: "The offer from Washington reflects Biden’s broader goal of ending what officials have described as a race-to-the-bottom on global taxation that has deprived governments of revenue needed to fund basic services and investments." 

I was surprised to see that governments are suffering this deprivation and wondered what percentage of GDP is collected by various governments worldwide.  It would appear that the US Government collects 27.1% of GDP as taxes while spending 38.1% of GDP.  Singapore seems to get by with 14.1% of GDP in taxes.

Here is the full list on wikipedia:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tax_revenue_to_GDP_ratio

Stefan Jovanovich  writes

As a economic denominator GDP has always troubled me since it pretends that there is an absolute equivalence between the Department of Education's paying for further studies of whole word instruction and parents' struggles to show their children that understanding the American language depends on recognizing the sounds of syllables and using the alphabet to write and read the notations of those sounds.  

In this particular example, the fiction of GDP is even worse: what the Federal Government spends on the 21st century's answer to phrenology counts as output because it is paid for in dollars.  What the parents do gets no accounting at all.

Assessing American public spending right now is tricky because this is the first time in our history as a nation that we have done what William James wanted and found a moral equivalence of war without the spending on arms and destruction.  There have been no net deaths in Trump's war against Covid; measured against the mortality rates for an average flu year, the casualty rate has been negative.  Instead of incurring debt to build ships, planes and other military assets that will be pure waste, that, unlike the capital equipment used in the "private" sector will have no residual value other than as scrap, this Federal war has spent it's money on direct transfers to people's bank accounts,  raises for hospital employees, and what has been effectively a continuation of the Census' part-time employment for official counting.  

There has been no wartime inflation because the largest part of the "spending" has been no spending at all but simply a non-recourse loan from the government to taxpayers that they have chosen to save.  

This really is different this time.

 

Patrick Boyle  writes:

I frequently see an argument from the left where any tax reduction is described as a government giveaway to the rich.  It is based on the idea that 100% of income belongs to the government and if you get to keep any at all is a gift.

It is one thing when a government increases taxes for their own benefit, but I don't think I can think of another example of a government encouraging other nations to tax its companies.  In fact trade wars are often fought over issues like this.  It is hard to view such a push from the new administration as anything other than a hatred of wealth generation.

Stefan Jovanovich  writes

f PB could offer a specific example of a "trade war" that became an actual war - one where the politicians spend money without limit and have their armies and navies work to kill people, it would help.  I looked through the list of conflicts for the past four centuries and I could not find one that was fought over tax rates and currency exchange terms.  As for how much money the U.S. government can tax, there is no limit.  The Constitution gave Congress total authority with the only limit being that direct taxes had to be apportioned by population among the states.   That was eliminated by the 16th amendment.

Apr

8

The Archi Huang loss to credit Suisse and Nomura calls into review the famous essay by the great man of the 19th century " the efficacy of Prayer:" Mr. Huang liked to deal with those wearing cross necklaces and when a stock went up he often said " it was blessed by the Good one. On the efficacy of prayer. after careful study of the lives of missionaries and those most prayer for and the rates on annuities for the prayerful, the author concludes " it seems to me clear that all belief in the efficacy of prayer must be yielded:"

"The evidence I have been able to collect ( and it is extensive in 10 fields) bears wholly and solely in the direction( of inefficacy) and in the face of it the onus probandi must henceforth lie on the other side.

What are the chances that the SP will hit rise above 4100 before falling below 4050? a statistically study seems appropriate . of the last 9 where the SP reached a new high in the 80's, eight of them sailed on the hundred before succumbing to the 50"s.( thanks to Susan)

Susan for 45 years has studiously assisted in studies like this and now that she has 1 grand children and counting it is good to see she still can organize and memorialize a study in the spirit of the great quantifier of the 19th century. 

Apr

7

https://studio.youtube.com/video/NXCRJMETC1o/edit invasion of the body snatchers, a very progressive and therefore bull day forthcoming, odds of presidential election changing against former prez. a series of maxs interruptus.

Proverbs from two great men one from the 19th century,1 from the 20th century. the rational optimist.

Mr. tiger where have you been? I've missed you. what do you think about the quintessential American game being politicized. Larry and I would have felt this very bearish. he was " doc Greenspans " thesis adviser and gave me the skinny on its falsity.

The operatives get out of their love hotels and note the humiliations of the Nikkei below 3000 while the SP breaches 4000 with ease on its way to 5000.

To the 10 people who won the search for the great mans quote from 1883 , please bear with me as it will take a week or two to send your prize as I am just a individual trader with no back up without much mobility but as Art Bisguier liked to say " the Hindhu will do.

What he can do>> I believe this was a reference to the great Indian player who beat Capablanca without so much as considering castling as it was not in their rules.

Nobody asked me but there is something loathsome about the official saying " stop it, stop it" in response to legit query. also interesting is the officials apparent failure to remember his treasury secretary's name.

Nobody asked me but there is something out of kilter with a high official trying to increase corporate service rates over the world .

What's the name of Chinese house of rep who always knows the minutes before hand and makes big bet with exotics and where is she now.

Judy chu always seems to have skinny on what's happening with government announce. they used to follow fed open market board to the men's room before open market announcements. some one should put an hour guard around Judy chu before such announcements as coming 200 pm. One guesses she's long until close.

Quote of day " life 'in general may be looked upon as a republic where the individuals ae for the most part unconscious that while they are working for themselves they are also working for the greater good.

Apr

7

Practical booklet for children and parents - perhaps even some traders?
From Ray Gottlieb (retired eye doctor) - on learning, memory, imagination, attention, vision using the trampoline…..
As Goethe once said.   Theory is all grey, whereas life (and nature) is so colorful.
So are mkts and birds etc we would say..

Apr

6

The new year 2021 has been a time of reflections in Slab City. Spooky inexplicable reflections. I examine the mysterious to clarify and can shed some light on why six people independently told me in the past three months that they thought they were losing their minds. 

 

A general view is the men-like mirages have been popping out of the ground or sitting in trees and smiling down at like Cheshire Cats. These are not ghostly but shimmering mirages appearing between sunrise and sunset. All of the sightings have been in South Slabs just south of the Library to the orchard power line in the vicinity where I live. 

 

Of course, I went looking for them and, as warned by most, ‘You will not see them unless they want to be seen.’ The closest I have come to a personal encounter was one sunset as a large figure rose off the ground where I had just looked and there was none. He stood and shrugged a net-like cover off his shoulders, stared through me, and walked in a military manner down the canal road. 

 

The spottings by others have been eerier still. Each describes them as starting at dusk, sitting or standing holding a bush, and nearly immobile moving a fraction-of-an-inch at a time through the night. They often return every other evening or weekly. Sometimes single, usually a pair, and often 3-4 of the visitors. Their favorite spots are in the crooks of trees or sitting on stumps. 

 

In two cases the residents’ dogs have gone up to sniff the phantoms and barked, each time to recoil as if struck by a stun or ultrasound gun. One man shot a specter with his pellet rifle and found blood on the limb the following dawn. They don’t leave footprints because on close examination wear a cloth booty over their shoes. 

  

The first person in January to tell me about the desert reflections claimed his dog barked at something in a tree, but was propelled backward. The owner walked to the tree where the thing peered down at him but could see it only as an outline of a flickering man. ‘I see you,’ he yelled from immediately below its feet. ‘Get the hell out of here.’ He returned to a fitful sleep in his truck bed, and on awakening an hour later, walked to the tree again. ‘You are trespassing, I feel threatened, and believe you may harm my dog.’ The climber didn’t respond, so he went to his truck, raised a pellet rifle, and shot it in the leg, as evidenced by the blood the next morning.  

 

The apparitions returned to his camp every few nights through the first two months of this year. They were single, or one sunset he spotted five trudging ten steps away across his camp to a bluff. He watched through his rifle scope, where suddenly there was a whir and they disappeared. A murmur like an electric motor started and trailed toward the canal. In a few minutes in more light, he walked over and saw vehicle tracks where there had been none before. ‘I think their transportation lowered some kind of screen to hide it and them as they got in, and drove off.’ 

 

The spotting have all been in open desert with creosote bushes, palo verde, cactus, and their favorite haunt ironwoods. The next person I talked a half-mile south of me is an ex-marine who is said to be the toughest man in Slab City. He nonetheless admitted, ‘Something stood at dusk at the entrance to my driveway. I walked up in a zigzag because it kept disappearing and reappearing in the same place. It shimmered like heat off the desert floor around the shape of a man only it was chilly out. I got 8’ away and yelled, ‘I see you, dumbass. Don’t think I’m crazy.’ The man stared back calmly. ‘I didn’t touch it because either I was mad or it was military and I didn’t like how either panned out.’ He exhaled a sigh as I related that others had similar sightings. ‘Thank you,’ he replied. ‘I didn’t think I was going crazy but who knows the limits of PTS. I cross-dress to bring out my feminine side, and adjusted my bra and left him standing in the middle of my driveway.’  

 

Another ex-marine camped on Walmart Wash explained that his two dogs ran barking up to something that wasn’t there in the night. He got out of his tent and approached as the dogs were suddenly invisibly propelled backward. ‘The single figure was like a hologram but it wasn’t. It was easiest to see in the pitch black. When I shined a flashlight it cut it in half. I stepped forward and shouted, ‘‘I don’t know if I’m hallucinating you or not, but why are you here?’ When it didn’t answer I ran away with the dogs to the canal. I’ve faced bullets and fists, but I wasn’t trained to fight ghosts.’ 

 

The Belle of Slab City and her boyfriend took it with more equanimity. They have been living in an abandoned trailer near the shoe tree, sprouting old tennies and oxfords where no fruit grows. She revealed without hesitation, ‘Something has been visiting our camp regularly but it’s not so serious. What I don’t like is it doesn’t talk back.’ ‘And,’ chimed her boyfriend, ‘It doesn’t laugh at my jokes.’ ‘Neither do I,’ she quipped. ‘It began getting on our nerves when we returned late at night and found things moved around and it sitting on a stump in the front yard. I blamed him’ … ‘And she blamed me’ … ‘But we knew they had done it.’ Each described the 1-3 spooks at a time for a total of a dozen visits as like human mirages, immobile, and nonreactive. He theorized, ‘I think they’re from Camp Billy Machen military base down the road and training, or trying out new equipment. We learned to live with them.’   

  

Another man described the same sort of encounter. ‘It was like a projection standing holding the branch of a Creosote. I told it to leave. It was nonresponsive. So at dawn I looked again through binoculars from 20’ and could see a human mirage that was the same in appearance as the background where it stood, depending on the angle I viewed it from. I brandished a pistol but didn’t fire.’ A few minutes later when he looked, ‘A solid man in a black T-shirt, mid-forties, stood where it had been. I walked up and said, ‘I don’t know who you and your friends are, but I don’t like you.‘’ The intruder stared silently, shook his finger in the camper’s face, and wheeled away.    

 

I talked to the Mayor of Slab City who reported from the brink of Walmart Wash, ‘I was driving on Canal Road when two figures that looked like they came out of the ground rose up covered with what looked like dead leaves and moss. But there are no leaves in the desert. I thought they might be my passed-father and one of his buddies come back to haunt me, so I sped home and grabbed a bible.’ 

 

I thought back to my own camp under a spreading palo verde tree in the target spook area where someone one night placed a Teddy bear on a tire next to where I slept on the ground. The next morning I was looking in the eyes of a cross-eyed bear. The following morning the bear’s eyes were uncrossed. Another sunrise and it had shifted so it was gazing over its shoulder at me. I thought, At least whoever the visitor is has a sense of humor and none of harm. 

 

Since the reflections are invisible I searched the internet. There you may see the military has invented tactical clothing that reflects ambient light to make the wearer appear as his surroundings. It is called the albedo effect and one may try to see pictures of it online.  

 

Who are they?  The mayor thinks the living dead. The Belle believes the DARPA who guard the adjacent military base. The ex-soldiers are sure they’re Marines or Navy Seals. I think they are independent mercenaries working in conjunction with Camp Billy Machen. In any case, Slab City may rest assured they are being surveyed by flesh-and-blood. 

Apr

6

Quote of day " the conditions that direct the order of the whole of the living world around us are marked by their persistence in improving the birthright of successive generations " they determine at much cost of individual comfort that each plant and animal shall on.

The general average be endowed at its birth with more suitable individual faculties than those of its representative in the preceding generation" a great man's quote and along with Ridley's idea and its extension the real reason for the 50000 fold a century drift.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=F7xjzAn510s influence of baseball, the day's progressive news, a continuous rise of 150 points et al .

A prize of signed copy of education of a speculator will be given to the first 10 individuals who can finish the next sentence of the optimistic quote of the great man . send to vniederhoffer@gmail.com.

Thank the good one that the odds on the Governor are catching up to the former Prez. Let us hope that a verdictive bitter critique is not forthcoming.

There have been some good detective work on the great man's quote.// Mr. Ze suggests that I give his regards to Mr. Sogi. what are the chances that Mr. Sogi will have to disgorge his cup of Kona today? 

The winners so far are Aiken, Venkatech, Howe, Owen. Ashton, swan, Pitt, Martin, two more you can post here if you couldn't get thru. but don't put any names in it, as one doesn't want to lose any more subscriber friends.

Had a dream based in Mill valley, cal.. I was not a financial adviser but a Dr. The streets outside were empty, for sale signs were up all over. no one was washing windows. and my patients kept coming in with a strange malady. their fathers, kids didn't seem to be the sane anymore.

Mr. Ze was a winner too. 

wsj.com/articles/vaccine-passports-prolong-lockdowns-11617726629?mod=hp_opin_pos_2 how did Harvard let this one get out the door (cont) https://tl.gd/n_1srlbrk.

The world traveler and man of many talents shares what's happening in slab city https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgxwLtQNngcbMLNTsNDZljgWpcPTn (cont) https://tl.gd/n_1srlbs3 

The man of many talents and the world traveler once used the match marking sites of his day. He mentioned (cont) https://tl.gd/n_1srlbs7 .

Proverb of day" speaking of defeat: after a couple of losses:: the poorest draw looks like a brilliancy: stick in there ( a very appropriate one for bears who were confronted by a 170 point continuous SP rise and be visited with a 2 point decline today. 

Apr

5

Amazon Travel

April 5, 2021 | Leave a Comment

The best means of travel in the Amazon is to hitch rides on boats. The waterways of Peru, Ecuador and Brazil are highways leading from the largest interstates to the narrowest jungle lanes. When the stream gets too narrow for canoes I turn around and go back to the interstate. 

The best way of land travel has been to the hike the jungle paths from village to village hiring local guides at each to get me to the next. The key is to get the name of the previous guide as a recommendation down the line.  

One covers hundreds or thousands of miles of jungle in either the water or land method with replete adventures. Meals and accommodation are not a problem for there is competition to invite the first gringo the town has seen in for food or a bed.  

There are no Ugly Americans in the Amazon.  

Apr

5

Today I am reminded of the other bank one keeps through life in his mental wallet. it is stacked with experiences that yield high dividends. Investing in experiences is more fun than money, and managing them more diverse. I was just contacted from South America by a man with three masters and one PhD who collects bugs for a living. I hooked him twenty years ago after being abandoned by a nervous guide to the Peruvian Mayoruna ‘Cat People’ who one generation earlier ate each other. They didn’t invite me to dinner, and I survived to relate the story in an investment manner that quickly spread through Iquitos at the headwaters of the Amazon. Iquitos has some heavy hitter ex-patriots whose ears I wanted. I knew the two handfuls of them comingled and with that managed the story as follows. I told being held by the cannibals to one person, then I told a tale from the rails to another, of a gorilla faceoff to another, a rip tide near-death to one more … and a total of ten different stories invested in as many people. The grapevine rattled and two days later I began getting invitations to dinner with prominent people that led to my settling in Peru for a year. It’s not only having experiences in your brain bank but how you spend the withdrawals that lead to success.   


Apr

5

Vix Part 2

April 5, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Michael Cook writes:

I know we tend to go into a stock market bullish period next week but I just got a Vix buy signal which generates from recent price behaviour of Vix index. Historically if it is going to work, (it doesn't always of course, what does?) it tends to start the move within a couple of bars.

Anonymous  writes

what is the green line? Also what is the time frame on each candle is it in the next day or 2 or next week or next month?

Michael Cook writes:

Daily bars, dark green signals utilize a 44 bar look back (so 2 months), light green are a 22 bar look back. 

Anoymous writes:

Ok what does the green signal line mean. Is it an indicator if so what. How are you supposed to be reading it pls.

Michael Cook writes:

This came about from [what I thought of as] a nice little bit of research by Andrew Thrasher who won the 2017 Charles Dow Award for his paper forecasting a volatility tsunami. https://cmtassociation.org/association/awards/charles-h-dow-award/

The two indicators are just two ways I mapped of looking at the dispersion of Vix.

In response to Gary's point, it isnt really that brave. It gets 1/4% to 1/2% of risk and I always have the expectation that at least half trades hit max loss or, if long options, expire at nil anyway!

Apr

5

Vix

April 5, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Anonymous writes:

Do you mind sharing what's needed to be read inferred in your svxy chart  for beginners.

Gary Phillips writes

nothing particularly esoteric here, other than the dotted yellow line is a level that has shown support in the past, and old support may become new resistance. in terms of constructal law it is an area that has evolved over time to allow greater access to the currents that flow through it.

Duncan Coker writes:

Feb of 2018 was quite a move for SVXY, down 90%.  SVXY is really a proxy for selling the term structure of VIX which is almost always in contango.(ie sell the distance month, cover after a month, rinse and repeat).  Except when the spot and front month explode upward and go into backwardation.  I did a study a while back showing backwardation of futures term structure is very bullish for SP500, but not that many trades.

Apr

5

The best person to catch a thief is another thief because he or she knows how thieves think in Slab City. But there’s a twist here. Naked at the hot spring today she revealed all. 

‘I turned honest here three years ago because the pickings are so easy. Now I just rob thieves and people who deserve to be robbed.’ 

The practice of setting a thief to catch another is more popular than thought. The government hires a stockbroker convicted of fraudulent activities to entrap the stockbroker they were investigating for fraud. In the Slabs, where the only stock sold is in stolen articles, you may order them by cell and delivered if you know the right numbers. If they aren’t in stock, they soon are. One gentleman here arrested for hacking by the FBI went to work for them. The Imperial County, CA sheriff’s department is forever tantalizing residents they collar to snitch for them. Few do, however, there are at least eight government informants on early release from prison who have turned state evidence. 

Yet the girl at the hot spring is one step ahead of the rest. She could not be persuaded to work for the police and, instead after going straight, now steals items from camps. In a couple days she returns to the camp and offers to track and recover the goods. ‘It takes a thief to catch a thief,’ she tells them. She returns the things and is given a cash reward that she never asks for. 

 

‘So this isn’t illegal after all.’  

Apr

5

Some numbers 60 million bird watchers in America, 5 millions members of book clubs– what other number of Bourgleois virtues can you dig up?

Apparently 20- 25 million anticipants each of baseball , basketball, and football. 

Apr

5

Play Ball

April 5, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Since we are all in the predictions market, any early season baseball
prognostications?  Rockies were able to host 21k fans yesterday and win the
opener, and driving around town seeing high school ball in action was a fine
sight.

Apr

5

https://amazon.com/Bourgeois-Virtues-Ethics-Age-Commerce/dp/B01NBJOANS/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=bourgeois+virtues&qid=1617546179&sr=8-1 another bourgeois virtue being tarnished or destroyed by elites, big corps, et al

https://www.amazon.com/Bourgeois-Virtues-Ethics-Age-Commerce/dp/B01NBJOANS/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=bourgeois+virtues&qid=1617546179&sr=8-1 

Birdwatching, square dancing, , chess, shell collecting, baseball.. national pastimes what ordinary people do. how will it affect the markets? barbershop, square dancing, birdwatching, a visit to their national conventions– or halls of fame, frequently attended by 25000 or more gives one confidence in the strength of the common person. how will politics, infringe on baseball, the former nat pastime.

Apr

5

Homeostasis and contructal having been achieved, the 4030's seem high.

His is the worst decision baseball has made since the [1994] strike," Travis wrote. "You need an ID to pick up tickets to attend a baseball game. Or to get a beer inside once you’re there. But MLB is moving the all star game because you need an ID to vote? This is pure insanity." 

Dr Cattle says he doesn't think anyone would consider him a scare monger. One would ask him if he has ever sad anything that a reasonable person would not think would have the effect of making the progressive case more rewarding and the other side more costly. 

Excellent books recommended from Marginal Analysis 

https://econjwatch.org/articles/what-21st-century-works-will-merit-a-close-reading-in-2050-second-tranche-of-responses 

Apr

2

… Was a nice turn of phrase by the Chair and Collab in Practical Speculation. Remembering the greatest permabear of all time, Alan Abelson, and his modern fellow travelers like the personage who predicted doom and gloom at a Junto in 2013 until interrupted by the Chair, how fitting that the S&P 500 topped 4000 on April Fool's Day.

Apr

2

Proverb of day. Wiswell. " weakness of character are normally shown in a game of chess" Gary Kasparov. " weakness of character are normally chown in a game of checkers" Wiswell. " weakness of character are normally shown in the game of markets " victor

SP at 3983 perilously close to 4000. what we need is service rates raised for corps and individuals ," office of Handicapper General.

Plus sa change, plus cest la meme chose "

https://www.saturdayeveningpost.com/2018/11/the-history-of-stealing-elections/ 

Mar

31

Query

March 31, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Victor Niederhoffer  writes:

To what extent were major discoveries in pharmacy like Fleming on penicillin profit  making actives.

Henry Gifford writes

Fleming I heard wanted the world to enjoy and benefit from his discovery, thus he didn't patent it, thus nobody spent the money to get it tested and approved, thus it was another 10+ years until it was widely available. I don't know who footed the bill for his lab or his salary.

Much work on diseases has been done by various military organizations, as "casualties" (solders becoming unavailable to fight) in-theater are caused more by disease than enemy action in many wars. I hear the US Army reportedly cured yellow fever and maybe other things.

Stefan Jovanovich writes:

I think the discovery itself is often not profit motivated. Flemming: "One sometimes finds, what one is not looking for." I suppose one then needs to create an environment whereby one can not look for what one is looking for. Variously, pharma companies have tried it, given up on it, outsourced, and required it, depending upon their shareholders patience for R&D. Perhaps SPACs are the perfect vehicle as they are blind capital? There is an argument that RNA based medicine is going to be more targeted and solution oriented and therefore might fit the capitalist mould better.

Today PFE announced its vaccine is 100% effective on 12-15 year olds and should be distributed amongst that population. Is the justification for vaccinating that group that it will reduce transmission and therefore protect the old? Wouldn't it be better to deploy any injection to vulnerable groups? 12m kids is 15% of 70m seniors. Amid a pandemic, what historical parallel is there for a vaccine being given to one subpopulation (for whom the disease has minimal effect) in order to protect another (the old)? And what about the fact that giving acquired immunity to the young might reduce their innate immune response if there is an evolved variant of the virus (or is this not a possibility)?

Mar

31

Snake Boots

March 31, 2021 | Leave a Comment

I've struggled with snake boots for years. The rattlers are coming out in Slab City so it's time to put on the thinking cap. I've used for snake boots stovepipes like the tin woodsman that proved to be too heavy. While brassing the bombing range on foot I've wrapped coils of detonation wire (found on the range) from ankles-to-knees to look like Magneto. When walking the adjacent orchards i wear bib overalls and tie the cuffs filling the legs with oranges and lemons for a fresh scent if bitten. One year I made leggins of duct tape and ShoeGoo. Each of these methods has had its drawbacks. This year I've tailored leggins of recycled milk jugs that deflect needles, nails, and assumedly fangs. I've been within striking distance of about 200 western diamondbacks and sidewinders in my spell in the desert, and finally have stumbled on the perfect combination. 

Mar

31

Victor Niederhoffer  writes:

How many of the great inventions were made for profit  rather than government sponsored or the common good.    

Peter writes:

If war is government sponsored great inventions (in some cases for profit as well) - I believe you will cover most of the great advances in medicine, aerospace, computers, etc…add the Cold War space race and most of the items in my kitchen can be added to the invention list.

Stefan Jovanovich writes:

The grand achievement of the American integrated freight system - now the world's logistical model - was almost entirely a product of the mass stupidity we call the Civil War.

James Lackey writes:

Mr Stephan,

You've got to admit that pure speculation in rail paper traded in NYC was important.

Victor Niederhoffer  writes:

lets do some more justice to the influence of profits making on invention. I've only listed the ones where great industries were formed and there were patent fights. Newcomen– steam engine, John kay– flying shuttle,  Hargreaves– spinning jenny, James watt steam engine, Cartwright –power loom, Whitney– cotton gin and interchangeable parts, Trevithick road steam locomotive, Stephenson–railways. Isambard Kingdom Brunel - revolvers, colt, brunel steam ship, singer, home sewing machine, Bessemer steel processing, more telegraph, Edison lightbulb Benz internal combustion engine.

Mar

31

studio.youtube.com/video/c83zprvYH8o/edit the market drifting around one time hits, credit Suisse, serial correlation of employment.

Handicapper General on the ball, finally sets all time high in conjunction with service increases. all we need is to sustain his is for Fangs, sage, Palindrome to cheer for even higher service rates without that, regularities are bear from here.

A very progressive day with stocks according at an all time high, instead of unmentionably subjects lets have some wisdom from the great adventure traveler Keely 12:53 PM (5 (cont) https://tl.gd/n_1srl1le 

Mar

31

Proverb of day from Thom Weisel– every defeat not checked today will haunt you by future defeats tomorrow.. defeats that are corrected are transformed into victories.

It was a Harrison Bergerac day with the handicapper general playing an all court game : the teachers in San Diego are teaching the migrants in school to not regulate students– the successful companies are in his sites for cancelation of their patents, and for defending themselves ( in the case of amazon) The General has in his sites the growth companies. and he refuses to hit 4000 sp until the sage calls for more service revenues compared to his secretary.

Mar

31

Xclnt article in Sunday NY times " the house always wins" bet 365 - how does vig compare? in game betting — when will it come to our markets.? what are chances that the sogi will be hit 3 times in next 10 minutes? what chances that sage will call for -before 1100 pm bet 365 limits amount that winners can bet same as robin hood on game stop . polymorphism, coefficient of relatedness.

Could not be a more progressive day and thus more bull. 

Mar

30

Jeffrey Watson  writes:

I found the pdf copy of one of my favorite books of all time, A History

of Interest Rates, by. Sydney Homer and Richard Sylla. I found it a

compelling read in the 80's when it first was published, and still find

it compelling today, in 2021. If one is interested in history, money,

exchange, banking, markets, interest rates, then one might find this

book to offer great value and a meal of a lifetime. It certainly gives

one pause and that there is nothing really new, it's all been done before.

http://vnn1.online.fr/Cafeteria/Financial_Accounting_Banking/

A.History.of.Interest.Rates.Wiley.Finance.Series.4th.Ed.eBook-YYePG.pdf

George Zachar writes:

It's a must-have.

I keep a copy at my office, and a copy at home.

Mar

30

Maybe that resonates w you, too,
Savvy traders are good in paying attention how they spend their attention on, vs inexperienced traders (same most ordinary folks) who often get bamboozled by the media, the drama outside and so on.
In the movie Meriln,  the protagonist kept chasing the tail of Queen Mab - but eventually he realized that Queen Mab didn't have the power she proclaimed.    Right now, the wokes are a bit like emotional vampires- sorry for lack of better words- looking four pps attention and the joke is always on us - in trading and life.

Mar

30

Proverb of day "exercising the right of occasional suppression and slight modification, it is truly absurd to see how plastic a limited number of observations become ,in the hands of men with preconceived ideas. quoted by Stigler in The Seven Pillars of Statistical wisdom.

The previous quote is by the namesake of Stigler's hero and my first daughter . it is applicable to most of the mumbo jumbo that is encapped by charting and other coincidences.

Hint : for even mentioning his name as the father of multivariate analysis stretcom fired me and Laurel 20 years ago.  

Mar

28

I'm a collector: Anything that abounds, may be classified, and illuminates I gather This is how i found the most unique dated railroad nails for my collection on the Burma-Siam railroad while traveling through southeast Asia. I spotted the nails as the train sided in the jungle, deboarded at the next town, bought a hammer, and walked the line for an hour pulling nails. The dates on the heads indicate the year the ties were laid, in order to know when to replace them every 20 years or so. They hadn't been replaced in Malaysia since the POW's laid them in the early 1940s. Happy with a pocket of jangling representatives from the 'death railroad', I caught the next train south to Singapore nose deep in my other passion of Louis L'Amour books. 
I generally eschew well-written books for their secondary characteristic of shallowness. However, The Railway Man by a POW who could have pound the nails I pried is a solid exception. Somehow, the author is eloquent in describing his childhood passion of railroads and adult torture on the Burma-Siam railway. 
https://www.amazon.com/Railway-Man-Brutality-Forgiveness-Tie/dp/039334407X/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=the+railway+man&qid=1616947751&sr=8-1

Mar

28

The garden of forking paths: Why multiple comparisons can be a
problem, even when there is no “fishing expedition” or “p-hacking” and
the research hypothesis was posited ahead of time
 Andrew Gelman† and Eric Loken‡ 14 Nov 2013

Abstract
Researcher degrees of freedom can lead to a multiple comparisons
problem, even in settings where researchers perform only a single
analysis on their data. The problem is there can be a large number of
potential comparisons when the details of data analysis are highly
contingent on data, without the researcher having to perform any
conscious procedure of fishing or examining multiple p-values. We
discuss in the context of several examples of published papers where
data-analysis decisions were theoretically-motivated based on previous
literature, but where the details of data selection and analysis were
not pre-specified and, as a result, were contingent on data.

http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/unpublished/forking.pdf

Mar

28

Susan Niederhoffer writes:

https://youtu.be/2anJ8qHGuC4

Victor Niederhoffer writes:

How many of  this typical spec party enjoyed this opus from the greatest piano player of our generation.

Mar

28

Daniel Grossman writes:

As a major user of Vanguard brokerage for many years, I find their newly-introduced Buy/Sell Page (for entering trades) clumsy, slow and inefficient — what computer programmers might refer to as kludgy or klutzy.

Talking to the person at Vanguard running the project has convinced me that the new Buy/Sell Page has not been sensibly designed or tested, but that it is an unstoppable freight train rolling down the track to Vanguard's thirty million customers and Vanguard has no interest in reconsideration or change of any significant aspect.

Having completely failed on my own, I wonder if a group of significant Vanguard brokerage users would have more influence, for example by writing a joint letter to Vanguard's CEO Tim Buckley or by promoting a media story on the faulty Buy/Sell page (also referred to as the "ticket" or, perhaps in general, the trading platform).

If any Speclister has interest in comparing notes on this, please contact me offline at 561-278-5646 or dvgman@gmail.com

Bud Conrad writes:

I have used both Fidelity and Vanguard for years. I have been shocked by Vanguard's lack of sophistication on many fronts, like not charging me for cost for borrowing a stock to short, and not fully understanding some risks in shorting. Their support is weak in aids for trading and research on individual stocks. They don't allow a full complex of financial trading, outside of mutual funds and stocks. No futures, currencies. I've seen them offer more leverage on margin shorts than competition, which would seem attractive. In the early days you could only trade mutual funds, unless you opened up another separate account that they called a Brokerage Account, if you wanted to trade just regular listed stocks. Tha meant trading money between accounts that would not be required in different circumstances. For the lack of support, and other reasons I have done very little trading through them recently. I would guess in these days of "free" commissions pretty much everywhere (profits only made by relatively sophisticated order flow selling, as done by Riding Hood); I would guess they have little reason to invest in new trading platforms

I think it is part of a philosophy going back to John Bogle, of keeping costs down as identified for mutual funds. In any case, they seem surprisingly unsophisticated.

But it is not my job to fix a company's strategy or implementation. I would expect that if they don't know they have a problem they won't listen to you to say they need to develop a better interface. So the above is just to confirm that they are not trying to offer trading features, and would rather just hold Grand ma's passive mutual funds. And of course, collect money from the largest passive funds like S&P 500.

Mar

28

Please consider for the SpecList

John Ridpath (1935 – March 23, 2021)

John Ridpath taught at York University in Toronto.

Like his close friend Allan Gotthelf and like George Reisman, John was reviled by his colleagues for his philosophical convictions but was over and over again voted as best teacher.

Like Alan Gotthelf and George Reisman, John was able to introduce three or four concepts in a lecture and students would come away with an understanding so clear that they would think them completely obvious.

John was formally a member of the Economics Department at York and formally taught Intellectual History but what he really taught was that a very few intellectually active, philosophically consistent people could change the course of history. His specialty was the amazing coincidence of a small group of men who created the philosophically consistent constitution of the United States, the only constitution ever that recognizes, and defends, the right of each person to have the freedom to better his or her own life. His Canadian(!) students loved it. I had the great good fortune of an open invitation to attend classes led by John during the ugly early 1970’s and, whenever I could escape work, I would go. It was like having the gas tank refilled.

Like the best of the self-interested, he was warm and generous to the point of shaking one’s head: How could someone be so much this way? For me, he was a wonderful mentor.

Mar

28

Hands

March 28, 2021 | Leave a Comment

There must be something about hands and brain - and common sense. and well-being.
most of my male friends who also work w their hands (e.g wood work or so, when they otherwise are traders) seem to have better grasp of simple things now….the hands stand for humanity as well. etc.
the wokes love to be in their head…a lot…in a virtual world.

Mar

28

wsj.com/articles/the-long-tail-of-the-pandemic-puppy-business-11616770770?mod=hp_lista_pos3 the hiways and byways shadows and lights of a great trader Larry Williams.

https://studio.youtube.com/channel/UC85UPcd0vziV3C8ShkRvfCA hiways and by ways of a trader Larry Williams https://studio.youtube.com/channel/UC85UPcd0vziV3C8ShkRvfCA.

Mar

27

Austin Lackey  writes:

Hey Specs,

Does anyone have any experience with the idea of tokenizing fungible assets/commodities? Idea being that you have a lot tracked asset that has the ability to be used in production and/or traded. It may trade hands 1,000 times before it's used, or used by the first buyer. The token coordinates with an exact lot in a warehouse or vault, and would be "burnt" if the owner ever took physical delivery. Has anyone seen (or worked with) anything similar to this, and what pitfalls do you see? I've seen JPMorgan is doing something similar with gold on their platform Quorum.

Laurel Kenner writes:

The chair's son is an expert in this subject. 

Mar

27

Pressure

March 27, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Victor Niederhoffer  writes:

What can the physics of pressure tell us about markets.  when a large accumulation of sel orders is directed at one point the force /area is great as it is in a triple top or double top or break thru the sogi/ what other elementary physical principles apply to markets. 

Zubin Al Genubi writes:

I can venture to say the idea of Gravity does NOT work in markets. Looking at a chart one gets the illusion of height or that gravity might effect prices but it is an illusion and a dangerous misleading illusion.

Peter DeBaz writes:

I'm not a physicist, so I'm sure that any understanding I have of physics would make a pro scoff.  Financial "momentum" could be an expression of newton's first law.  VN's original idea could be a restatement of f=ma, newton's second.  And finally, "value" trading could be a violation of the second law of thermodynamics, which is why, one could argue, that it never worked (lol). 

Andrew Aiken writes:

Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing formula is a direct restatement of the heat (diffusion) equation:

ut − ∆u = f(x, t)

and later refinements such as Heston, which allows for pricing “jumps”, are extensions of this equation with additional conditions.

(I prefer to price options in a way that doesn’t underprice tail risk)

Mar

27

Bonds finally going down but still 1/2 pt above 1 year lows.

Interview today with the great and multi dimensional Larry Williams today on Yelena victor blog at 500pm

Mar

27

Proverb of day. particularly apt for last 3 days - down a cumulative 2.5%, "your game is often less strong in the ending than it appears in the opening - the truth of the matter is that it was lost in the muddle".

One of those irrational reaction. tapering in play. ultimately. that's supposed to bearish for bonds as fed doesn't buy more debt and sell some. but bonds don't go down. but stocks dol. what is the reason? does the liquidity from bonds go directly to stocks?

One nost Germany just down 0.15 %. the sogi level of 3850 is in play. excessive bear in stock in my opinion, buying some before below the sogi level of 3850. one notes bonds finally down 3 tick before was up 10 tips for day. what are chances of blue day if not today then tomorrow.

If it was good for silage and vig and busted spec overnight like at 430am est then why not create some transactions and especially vig now.

The end game didn't work for 75 pts and last 3 games. perhaps a refutation of the infrastructures defense this time.

Mar

24

This is interesting that I've heard from many spec that the move from the low in march is u p 50% and this is very rare and very bear. but tut have tested it. its not so rare and its bullish. Mr. Pink gives me a nice study going back to 1922. the points is that as usual the conventional wisdom and yet another reason to be fearful is totally malarkey and mumbo jumbo.

Gentlemen bout of love hotel at 430 am there time . they stayed a little later than anticipated.

On Ridpath Tribute Inbox Linden Doerr <lwdoerr@gmail.com> 12:10 PM (1 hour ago) to me Please consider for (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1srkol9 

Mar

23

Proverb of day : if I hadn't gone there:; if I hadn't made that capture: if I hadn't sacrificed a piece: if it were not for the "ifs "wed all be champions.

The stimulus twins testify today. that; must be why bonds going thru roof.

https://zerohedge.com/markets/american-health-regulators-slam-astrazeneca-releasing-incomplete-trial-data problem may be their outsized contribution to a certain governors association.

If I hadn't waited to buy after the opening, if I had bought crude when I wanted to down 270 on the day, if I hadn't waited until cancel gardener said the economy was no god, if I had been , if I hadn't up at 500 am when the SP was hitting 3910, if I hadn't suggested that the basketball team Liberty change its name as its not in keeping with the Tripoli,, if I had bought Nasdaq instead of SP, if I hadn't been turned off buying so because the Nikkei was down big–

Proverb of day. the race is not to the swiftest, nor the slowest. the laurel wreath is awarded to the steadiest and the surest.

It was a blue day yesterday and so far its blue also. with Nasdaq in the green.

Gentlemen get computer warning from love hotel at 28300 Nikkei.

Mar

22

Jeffrey Watson writes:

This Surfline article delves into the reasons that while the waves people are riding are getting bigger and bigger, nobody has died while riding them in a long time. The author attributes this to better training, better conditioning, better equipment, and new safety measures with a team effort. 

Since getting wiped out in the market can be accurately be described with a surfing analogy, what methods have you implemented to protect yourself from a six sigma event in the market?

https://www.surfline.com/surf-news/nobody-died-big-waves-lately/112815?

 

Zubin Al Genubi writes:

Using Ralph Vince's risk management tools.

Mar

22

Happy days a Barron Coleman day bonds and stocks very green.

https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=7285spp some time ago, Mr. Steveelison defined a flexion index as the performance of the financial sector stocks versus the averages. With a flexion in the Defense Dept. deviating his attention to diversity and progressive , this mite be an interesting play. 

Mar

22

Proverb of day goes along with errors in anticipating , every aspect of day. " we all have losing days, drawing days, and wining days: not every day is a loosing day: and not every day is a drawing day, and although we may not like it, not every day is a winning. Not every day is a winning day: that's life in chess, checkers and markets.

Mar

20

Did you know that Dailyspeculations.Com now has a Youtube Channel ?

You can find it here

Or you can find a link on this page, further down on the right side under Resources & Links

Enjoy!

Mar

19

Thank you very much. I was able to shave and then have a refreshing cup with Mr. Sogi virtually.

Mt.ag trader we will pay half and whenever you're ready were game.

For those who just found my twitter I am a shooting star could be canceled at any time as the algorithm's mistakenly believe i am not progressive enough so your following me mite be ephemeral 

Mr. Woland asks me to o pine on an article which says that foreign bonds a re much more attractive than us bonds. I am not an expert on this. but after a 30 big point decline in bonds I would hesitate to be overly bearish on them. the fed is in a pair of pants on bonds.

As mentioned. eventually they will have to stop raising rates as it will hurt the vote buying. as for foreign bonds being much more attractive, the yields are all equilibrated by the forward rates in currencies. so where it look like you are getting extra yields.

In foreign bonds you are expected to lose a much in the exchange rate. I apologize if this is too naïve and doesn't answer your question but I am not astute enough to digest a erudite study in a disparate field with my ageism and stroke. 

Proverb of the day" chess and checkers represent our intellectual nourishment. they are available to all, and they are ours for the taking. Some take to chess, and some take to checkers, like a fish to water" and a few hardy souls like Harry Pillsbury( who could play 30 game.

Pillsbury could play 30 games simultaneously blind folded while engaged in a game of ping pong and exchanging share repartee) develop ability in both games. However, the majority of players are content to play and master one of these great games: although the masters do not.

The masters do no really master either game. Life is too short for either game) Tom Wiswell.

Big cons in the market and life. importance of reducing vig by going for big gains or losses, the best western book of all time, intro to Elmer Kelton, and a meal for limited time on triple witching hour, books my family owned the role of police et al.

Shocking decline Nikkei down2.5% over night. From re sofar green with bonds and stocks. crude say above 60.00. Ms. Harries 50% more likely to be president in 2024 than Mr. Biden according to betting odds. Harvard pretends to be caring of Asians.

The round number couldn't be prenumbered.. the prediction of an up opening was wrong by 8 big pts. grains and crude are up.. bullish vibes for the future especially next week. how low can the fed force bonds down to increase service rates and wealth penalty.

Proverb of day: when you beat players on the way up, let them down gently: you are sure to meet them again.. on the way down. and a bonus: don't play on a heavy meal: a hungry player is a good player.

Beware of getting in over your head so that your brokerage or clearing firm can close you out without notice.

Today was one of those days where you keep looking at the screen after the close, and thinking that some final ticks are missing — and sure to come in a few minutes.

Mar

19

Aftermath of open market meeting, bond vigilantes bring bond down to 153 handle. Nikkei reaches 303000 but then recedes to 299254 now. stock market has nice 2% decline form 3980 high. a bad day for woke .There creating recrimination Damocles sword hangs over chance gardener.

Dr. cattle " its a race between the virus and the vaccine, "could be better in 2022.

Any ideas that were based on the rally fizzling at yesterday's close are vitiated,

Mr. ag trader. can we interview you at 5pm Est time. We admire a man who speaks plain truth.

When I was in my prime, my uncle Roy worked for us and was then as always very facile with the computers. at age of 13 he had produced 100 games and had 10 brights from great neck south working for him. He produced voice program that was triggered by prices . and Paul Derosa said it was better than any trading manager. one of the computer vocalizations was " how Loo can bonds go " it is relevant. and we humbly request an interview with Mr. ag trader to augment the computer.

Mr James Altucher worked for us also. and I complement him on one foot he most deceptive door openers that I have ever had the gullibility to be exposed to. ill finish the story when I drink my coffee.

The funny thing about the door opener that induced the hire is that I believe MR. Alutcher would be very proud of it to this day it is. Speaking of Mr. Altucher one must point to the several years that MR. Adam Robinson worked for us. He often played chess with Art beguiler.

Its anyone's game as of 11 pm Est

Mar

17

Last on3 on 1 -22 opened down 48 big pts and then went down 88 from there that would be good for anyone including the croc hunters.

"If you cut off the tall trees the tulips will grow" chance gardener.

Thanks goodness the germens and Japanese were forewarned.

What we can all agree on is if all humans were ordered to sleep with mask's and never get out of bed , the climate would be much better and the virus would be checked. And this doesn't only apply to 2 year old but to new born and old folks also.

I am leaving the table to study checkers proverbs. you can play my hand but at your risk .

While I'm away from the table I'll have a serving of dairy queen milk shake and I'll study all Geico advertisements over the past years to see if they are the apotheosis of the sage's contempt for the common man and call for increased service rates. 

Proverb of the day " if you want to be certain of your position, begin by doubting it" tom would apply that himself . In any hard fought game he'd stop and thoughtfully say " I'm in over my head . I better simplify: tom was undefeated for 25 years while he was world champion.

The funny thing is that all good checker players learn to think 40 moves or so forward. so when a good player says the ending is ambiguous I better simplify he's often thinking 4o moves in advance or several alternative paths depending which for the opponent takes. that's why checkers is a game of exactitude. to say nothing about how a good player will know the book and in the old days have a manuscript with thousands of games.

As Tom says so common is the game of checkers that its profundity if to the lay mind an unreality— a kind of harmless fiction. to the student the wonders of the board are astonishing realities.

youtube.com/watch?v=v_J_PI_vIzc how a pair of pants swayed the folks at Fed to raise interest rates and goose stocks. a solution to climate change, what should be your stopping rule, the influence of luck. the wisdom of Odysseus, arousal of cuome, woke cubed to fan service rates. 

 

Mar

17

Tune in to blog for relation of birds to market, arousal, eating their own, contagious of me too, Brooklyn college losing 85 to -3 to Notra Dame.

Unsolicited guidance for Elon Musk. Follow the blazing path of the Palindrome, the fang founders, the Sage, - be more progressive in your statements, shout out for me service duties on the wealthy. Hank Reardon was destroyed.

I do like a man like Mr. ag trader who tells you right out what's going to happen. don't we all. And the man that's telling the truth when he says he is not, I distrust most of all because that's going contrary to the laws of nature. said the fat man.

The fed is in a pair of pants now. they want to help the progressives along to raise taxes on the above average. so if they knock interest rates down again they can make the case that they better not tighten money or reserve rules or threaten not to buy all the debt.

From innumerable stimulus bills. all rite they want to help the current admin along by increasing interest rates to an unsustainable level( like 3 of the long bond(.but if they do that , they have to make sure that the stocks don't go down 1200 big points like last. So they must change the language or the projections so that its' good for stocks and bad for bonds. What's the sports analogy of the situation the fed is in?

One thing for sure they can count on the bi-partisan congressional budget office to predict that raising taxes will reduce the deficit. you see since they cant use dynamic scoring if taxes were raised to 100% say from their current level of 50% ,they would score it as they would score it as a 500% increase in service revenues received over 5 year. thus no more deficit. if the CDC goes along and they're fellow travelers so that's for sure, they could eliminate all humans from getting out of bed in morning and stay there. with no activity. Not only would the deficit go to zero, but the climate would get colder and carbon emissions would be lower. of course I am very woke because the more it's woke the better for stock market and most of my much needed wealth since I am retired is in the stock market held back the announcement (I think based on a little bird who knows) to sink the former prez.

Proverb of day from Tom Wiswell : no victory depends on chance; instead, skill, science, and study are the winning watch words.

Mar

15

Guaranteed to happen : the "non-partisan" committee will calculate that a wealth tax on those with wealth above 1million will generate 2 trillion in extra taxes in 5 years provided anyone who reduces wealth goes to jail. dynamic scoring will not be allowed.

Mr. Sogi do you take your Kona coffee with milk, sugar, or ice cream for a celebration.

Art disguiser in our chess games when I took four minutes to think after getting myself into an unfathomable , and untenable position would shake his head and say " now you're thinking ?!!!" 

I hasten to add that I could never give Art a god game. I never became a decent chess player. I took the game and lessons up when the Palindrome asked ordered me to play a game. the Palindrome once beat Art in a game. Nigel Davies toyed with Art who by that time was in 70's

In my defense I am a mediocre checker payer and took lessons for 25 years weekly from the great Tom Wiswell. 

Art won the national Jr. national open and National senior championships and beat Reshefsky a few times.

I arranged for Art to teach chess to the Palindrome and his family, but the Palindrome called a halt to it as Art was self taught and had no system although he could annotate the history of any men going back t the 19th century.

Free associations Hand size as a door opener with young high heeled blonds with dress: no dynamic scoring allowed in "non-partisan congressional budget office– importance of break thru to new high and fast conquering of 50's level for SP and Bitcoin. remember you cant.

You cant have breakfast all day . and the Sogi level can bed a magnet both ways. anyway Kona coffee all around. new all time high for SP after 30 days of waiting.

youtube.com/watch?v=Vq4ftBaRuwY you cant have breakfast all day at 26: 54 second into performance.

Mar

15

“In a ZIRP/NIRP world, every asset feels like a [principal only] PO, and there are scant [interest only] IO assets,” notes our old pal Nom de Plumber, a senior risk manager with a penchant for suing federal agencies. “So, assets generally behave in a digital manner, ping-ponging between 0:00 (extension and default) and 100:00 (prepayment), as you illustrate via accounting treatment. And market volatility and illiquidity go in tandem. Thank you.” 

- Chris Whalen The IRA Analyst

Mar

15

Grocery store workers are working, meat packers are working, hell bars and restaurants are open in many (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1srkchr is max interruptus bull or bear. Sennett victor blog will have answer today as well as non-overlapping expectations for key markets wen in habitat or Nas down and SP up.

One can imagine the delays that would have been visited on the vaccines if the CDC, and FDA had their way before " early Nov" guaranteed to happen: dr. cattle says that climate change will create more pandemics. 2the Fed twins will call for more stimulus. 3 the irascible governor will be given 100 times more latitude than one who was not poster boy for anti-former. 4. sec. defense diversity. While were at it, what to expect from the fed vis ai vis serial correlation on on 5 pm. march 15 pod.

Guaranteed to happen : the "non-partisan" committee will calculate that a wealth tax on those with wealth above 1million will generate 2 trillion in extra taxes in 5 years provided anyone who reduces wealth goes to jail. dynamic scoring will not be allowed.

Mar

15

Interesting to see relative performance of SP and Nas with no overlap when both diverge over last 60 day, i.e. when one is up and the other down, how does it compete to random days in last 12 years.

I am very fortunate when algorithms aren't taking followers away because of their incorrect calculation that I am not progressive enough, I am greeted by advertisements for specials offers to buy NY times and offers to buy dairy queen chickens bites, that is shot across bow.

Go to office of handicapper general for punishment https://youtube.com/watch?v=T-4LZj_jGEE to immerse yourself in Berkshire and NY times advertisements.

Proverb of the day from Tom Wiswell " some players never fall for the same trap twice. they are very good at finding new ways to lose. ( shout out to former President, and director of woke on algorithm).


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