July - 2021
Sunday
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
1
 S&P +22.30
 USB -0.18
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 S&P +32.00
 USB +0.23
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6
 S&P -12.50
 USB +1.20
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 S&P +15.50
 USB +1.09
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 S&P -39.00
 USB +0.15
9
 S&P +47.00
 USB -1.10
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 S&P +16.50
 USB -0.04
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 S&P -17.25
 USB -1.03
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 S&P +6.50
 USB +1.05
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 S&P -19.75
 USB +1.08
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 S&P -33.50
 USB -0.03
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 S&P -67.25
 USB +2.11
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 S&P +67.25
 USB -0.31
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 S&P +35.00
 USB -1.12
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 S&P +9.00
 USB +0.15
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 S&P +43.50
 USB -0.15
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 S&P +11.25
 USB +0.03
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 S&P -29.00
 USB +0.25
28
 S&P -3.50
 USB -0.05
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 S&P +5.75
 USB -0.09
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 S&P -22.25
 USB +0.18
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Jul

29

Branch Rickey

July 29, 2021 | Leave a Comment

nobody asked me but the professor is in the catbird seat and branch rickey is the founder of sabermetrics. tom wiswell had a weekly checker game with branch rickey.

Branch Rickey: Baseball's Ferocious Gentleman

Jul

29

at the B&N on Market Street in Philadelphia which i visited over the weekend, i explored the business section to augment my recap of chapter 6 of Quixote.  i found all the finance books to be about panic or the decline of capitalism or the need for regulation to reign enterprise in, except for a book by ellis which, like all the other finance books, espoused the out-of-place-and-time methods of the Sage and his philandering  mentor.
 
i bought a big selection of them but the fire department picked me up for unsteady walking. (i wasn't wearing shoes and had my sneakers in my book bag so i fell.) and i left my books on a bike and they were stolen within 5 minutes which made my story seem not valid.
 

thus i can't relate to all the titles that espoused the graham & dodd, sage line, or the hoped for destruction of capitalism.

Vic's twitter feed

Jul

29

subscribe to Laurel Kenner on Substack

Jul

28

Market pullback, Covid and Fed. BTFD? BABA buy? 07/27/2021

Jul

28

i recommend Brett Steenbarger's book The Psychology of Trading. it contains all sorts of fixes for emotional trading and reads like a mystery novel.

Brett's book is like a Paul Harvey story. it starts with a life or death situation from his counseling. then it shows how he solved the problem by applying trading wisdom.

i like his technique of talking out all your trades — and moving away from the market when it's going in your favor. also, all the wise words about the function of markets

Dr. Steenbarger's other works

Jul

28

good article on what is ruining baseball and why the Yankees lose so much when ahead and turn to analytics. they don't take account of ever-changing cycles and rely on one metric rather than the panoply.

State Of Analytics: How The Movement Has Forever Changed Baseball – For Better Or Worse

Jul

28

If I had 300mm in used cars and I wanted to protect the losses of a sudden drop in prices or book values banks use….
 
My solution is to not use options as learned by listening to Mr Vic on the vigorish.
 
If a stock's price was tracking current tick data of aggregate mean car prices, wouldn't it be best to sell a line of that stock against the inventory?
 
If so, how do we quickly calculate how much in stock in total vs the 300mm of inventory. 
 
Yes I'm aware of the joke.
 

Someone said there is no way to hedge this, and I said why not sell some used car companies stocks just in case and….

A reader writes:

Yes, the difficult question is to find the correlation between the used car inventory and hence their aggregate values with the used car sellers' stock prices. I don't know which publicly trade companies only sell used cars. Once one knows the equivalent delta value of the inventory, then one can hedge the delta risk using various strategies as you have suggested.

James Lackey writes:

After a day, I think of ways I could as a day trader blow this trade up. The risk is car prices crash as they should and the used car big box store's stock goes up big on a squeeze. Therefore the way to protect that is to buy call options. Buying options is not businesslike as the vigorish is unbusinesslike. I do believe others must be in this trade as I'm always the last to know. I'm sure I'm not the only guy that thought of this trade. Yet so far the dealers and the vampire squid isn't pitching this trade.

Someone said to me there is no way to hedge this book. I laughed and called bs and said there is.always a way. Problem is the cost.

Duncan Coker writes:

The only part of Dalio's book I found readable was the first section where he
talked about his early consulting work prior to Bridgewater. One of his first
major accounts, McDonalds, needed to hedge chickens. Dalio came up with an
elegant solution with ratios of feed, energy and land. Futures were not a
ubiquitous as they are today and his ideas were quite good.

A reader adds:

Jake Powell also commented on the recent high prices of used cars shall come to pass in his congressional testimony this morning. Similar to the Dalio methodology, then perhaps auto parts stores like ORLY an/or AAP could be affected then.

Jul

28

I’ve been reading up about Charles E. Sorenson as someone who I missed on his contribution to Ford.  There’s a lot of lessons in/on his life.  One is, the #2 defines the #1 man much more than is commonly assumed.

As you would expect, I discovered him through his boat.

Jul

28

it is one thing to lament how much rigidity we see from the progressiveness - and it is another thing how much un-necessary rigidity we are subject to.    eg. self-sabotage is another way of saying it - in particular in trading. see also Brett Steenbarger on it.

Jul

25

Risk of another market pullback is high. 2021/07/23

Jul

25

the duckworth-tukey test for differences between medians is useful and interesting and novel. i will give an example later. test 93 from 100 Statistical Tests by Gopal K. Kanji is unusual, useful for testing diffs between medians. consider the smallest observation from one distribution and the largest observation from the other. then take the overlaps

Jul

25

Deep Blue plays Jim Sogi's original songs, Puuo and Waiilikahi

Jul

25

lawyers have been effusive in cross examining the niceties of witnesses in political testimony but I wonder what the appropriate cross examining questions are when a witness says he doesn't know if laptop with dates and places and pictures are his own
 
one of dr. brett's techniques for better trading is to laugh at yourself.  ridicule. i am ridiculing myself for not racking up for new highs
 
anti-capitalism, anti-private-property, capture by the atlanta 100.  attempts at divisiveness and lockdown, pro marxism, agreed what could be worse?
 
let us not forget list of marxism that will lift the S&P to new constructal. the handling of the cuban revolt. they are not allowed to come to us (250000 fine for helping them) but the red carpet is laid out for those who likely vote blue for handouts
 
now while we're at it, the virtue signaling - no more cleveland indians and the general destruction and decryinig of our history

Jul

22

Bitcoin breaks 30k, what's next? Markets rebound. 2021/07/20

Jul

20

Vic's twitter feed

hopefully one side will have a better defense against marxism than that it creates  inflation
 
mentioned marxism in a bad way and lost subscribers.  the loss of subscribers had been much allayed since various suits and complaints
 
it's ironic to see masters 1000 and big tech rooting for marxism as in cuba or venezuala or russia — or are these just anomalies? presumably this idea is captured
 
keys to game. will sp make a dive before breaking the round, will crude turn around after 50-day low.  will compromise on infrastructure show complete nothingness of one side's agenda. how will big tech profit from the red herring of cancel and suppression
 
with all the anxiety and bearishness of the reacent declines, nasdaq is 1.5 from all time high after 3 down days in row
 
yesterday's move from 3:30 to 4:15 was 14th largest in history and the sixth largest from 3:30 to 5:00 pm. will it repeat or disappoint?
 
dare i say wihtout being canceled that news of pandemic increasing revals news of infrastructure as the fastest and most assured way of losing money to the bigs
 
one thing for sure is that the prodigal son is the perfect liar and is a model for the perfect lie

Jul

18

Is stock market pullback over? Crypto? 2021/07/16

Jul

17

Vic's twitter feed

weak longs are margined out or scared out i think
 
why did not sogi have his day today after the 930 open? there was too much non-anti-government. the visceral reaction of every thinking person has to equate the suppression of views as a negative. the crime situation was non-anti also: a NYC attempted kidnapping
 
as the market refused to cross the sogi level after the open, one was reading bill browder's Red Notice and the situation is so similar
 
i have been inspired by chapter 6 of don quixote and wish to find the books that wanted to bring back the good old days of chivalry with don's critique of the bad old days. any suggestions as to which should be burned or saved would be appreciated
 
here's a pretty kettle of fish: bonds at a 5-month high, but stocks 4 days and 50  points from an all-time high. 1 day away from a non-quarterly expiration. becoming  clearer every day that suppression reigns supreme, and things are not what they seem in potomac
 
just a question of time until bonds pull stocks to new high. a guess: within 5 days

Jul

17

101-year-old Maine woman may be the oldest person in the world still lobstering

Jul

15

Vic's twitter feed

bonds continue their response to buying of bonds by Fed and pronouns of Treasury. still  some groups-not getting handouts. buying of votes reigns supreme
 
miss sarah, one notes that crude is at a sane or almost a 29-day minimum at 7250 with the only lower price having occurred on wed june 7 at 7213.  would you say that crude is due for a rise?  the numbers and distance are fairly bullish
 
note to self: if you wish not to lose all followers, don't refer to atlanta 1000, don't refer to family grifters, don't talk about suppression, don't mention the unmentionable founder of multivariate statistics, especially vis a vis diversity and crime
 
burning of books here. bill gross on investing, back files of alan abelson's column, one book falls out: Justin Mamis The Nature of Risk: Stock Market Survival & the Meaning of Life. "life is like stock market, the fear of death causes you to exit too early the mid life crisis causes excessive trading". a keeper
 
don't throw out Justin Mamis books i exhort susan as she throws out all my books and says if we just waited for the all time highs as we did in the childrens' 559 trusts, we'd be much better. but then i read in the nature of risk: venturing is just a beginning 
 
venturing can be cut short by fear and worse by the settling for the ego satisfaction of having tried - "getting out too early us as if to avoid death by tiptoeing  away". another book refuses to burn and I find it life sustaining 

Jul

14

Has the market run up too high on optimism? 07/13/2021

Jul

13

Vic's twitter feed

an archetypical day so far we stand for assembly and rite for familys to profit and a series of all-time highs with a strong opening on Monday.
 
an archetypical day. inflation looks bad so stocks go down 1000 but bonds go up 10 ticks
 
but everything's infrastructure. nw it will be harder to promote unionization
 
which of these words will lead to greatest suppression, anti-americanism, the artistic son, the american flag raised in south, unionization
 
a certain economist from chicago noted that comerce creates freedom. no better example of this than the grey lady displaying a 1st page ad for patrick o brian works which are heroic and support the great contirbution of the English Navy to civilizatn in 19th century
 
finally the anti-americanism reaches a maximorum and by comparison its a maximum

Jul

12

S&P levels and Monday prediction. 2021/07/09

Jul

11

Red Notice

July 11, 2021 | Leave a Comment

the book Red Notice by Bill Browder provides an exciting introduction to starting a business amid many doubters. i recommend it for young people interested in starting a business and anyone interested in how a quant can realized his goals amid the infrastructure.

Jul

9

After 8 days of new highs, a pullback in S&P 500. Is inflation trade over? Crypto, DeFi. 2021/07/06

Jul

7

Vic's twitter feed

it can't get better than a visit by the post office, or their agencies to one's establishment. one hates to make money on this maximum of de-independence and will play the new all time high with trepidation and loathing.
 
one guesses that crude will go up and bonds and stocks will go down…there's a trifecta. lets see how many are wrong.

Jul

4

Steve Keeley: Golden Era of Paddleball and Racquetball

Jul

2

S&P 500 new highs over 4300, 6 up days, bullish? Employment report trade. Crypto chopping 2021/07/01

Jul

2

 The green building insanity had not started at the time Surfside was built (1980).
 
In the 1970s, some professors at Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champlain theorized about very well insulated and well air-tightened houses with energy-recovery ventilation to all rooms, and built six of them. The houses required a very small fraction of the energy of comparable houses. After much measuring and public tours, they sold the houses, which last time I saw them were still occupied. The houses were well publicized, including an article in Scientific American that called them “Lo-Cal Houses.” What happened as a result of all the publicity was…..nothing.
 

Comments on buildings and the Surfside collapse continued…

Jun

30

Westerns

June 30, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Vic's twitter feed

i am asked for best western films that do not show hatred and shame of Americanism. i would recommend these be heard on audible, especially The Time It Never Rained.
 
one notes that the 50 best westerns recommended are heavy on debunking of the spirit of individualism and adventure that characterizes the best westerns i would recommend High Noon, The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance, Shane, and the stage coach movies.
 
i don't watch movies to great extent nowadays as it hurts my eyes and makes me late for 7am ET markets. would some readers recommend heroic westerns that don't depend on a single fast gunfighter like the clint eastwood sagas? i like monte walsh for what it could have been.
 
when i wish to regain the spirit of adventure, americanism, individualism, and heroism nowadays that used to characterize westerns, i listen to the patrick obrian novels, narrated by patrick tull. it is ironic that an english author provides so much of this.
 
any westerns by Jack Schaeffer contain the understanding of nature that Loui Lamour has with good character development and appreciation of women and heroism.
 
for timeless adventure and understanding of place and relevance to current days, whenever i have a bad day in markets and are displeased with modern trends i like to listen to don quixote. it requires a day and a half of listening from start to finish but any snippets, chapters.

Jun

30

S&P 500 made another new high, as breadth deteriorates. Crypto and Coinbase COIN rally. 2021/06/28

Jun

29

Hollywood has learned much of Slab City, and Slab City of Hollywood in the past week of cinematography.
 
When you compare a movie highlight reel to the blooper outtakes, and it makes you feel worse, you’re on the wrong road leading from Slab City. No great film can compare to its outtakes, as the Hollywood crew of the movie ‘The Slabs’ discovered this past week when I was their ‘fixer’ who rose to assistant director. Bloopers have universal appeal, as movies may be made of them. These are the behind-the-scenes slips that you won’t see from a theater seat.
 

Hollywood And Slab City Collide continued…

Jun

28

S&P500 finally made new highs, as inflation PCE highest since 1991, but everything's woke 2021/06/25

Jun

28

Vic's twitter feed

"A nation need not be a mob of slaves, clinging to one another through fear, and for the most part incapable of self-government, and begging to be led; but it might consist of vigorous self-reliant men, knit to one another by innumerable ties, into a strong, tense, and elastic organisation."
- Francis Galton
 
one can agree with the thought that energy is the most salient characteristic of eminent persons, and that sports provides a useful model of what energy can accomplish, and how the incentive to work changes but as to how that affects markets, it must be tested.
 
near the beginning of racket games one often allows the opponent to win a point with a drop shot. invariably this leads to the opponent losing 5 times as many points when they try the drop shot later in the game. How can a  political party be so naive as to accept a deal on infrastructure that is sure to be followed by a request and exhortation for 6 times as much infrastructure in the more important later stages of the match. it requires the blessing of useful and envious idiots.

Jun

28

I hadn’t mentioned George Soros for decades until recently because there was no reason to. I don’t read the news and didn’t know a world stand he has climbed to. The fact is I met him hoboing.
 
I boarded a Seaboard freight in Jacksonville, FL and held down flatcars, boxcars, grainers, vans, and containers for two weeks along the east coast to land in Newark, NY. I alighted from a boxcar on the ballast to behold, across the Hudson River, the skyrise of Manhattan. It was an easy stroll through a traffic tunnel into the center of the financial world. I caught a subway to the upper east side, and ran into the raised eyebrows of a doorman in a brownstone, who buzzed up to announce to Victor Niederhoffer, ‘A hobo is here.’
 
Niederhoffer in the mid-90s was the #1 commodities speculator in the nation for four years running. ‘Doc Bo,’ he pinched his nose. ‘I knew you’d be coming one year or another. Jump in the shower, and I’ll lay out clothes for you. We’re going out to eat.’
 
Ten minutes later I had traded my bib overalls for a suitcoat with an apple core and a $100 bill in the pockets. The coat describes the character of Niederhoffer, who had managed George Soros’ Quantum Funds, famous for breaking the Bank of England, before striking out on his own.
 
We took a cab to the esteemed Four Seasons on East 52nd. The table of five included George and his wife Susan, Victor and his wife Gail, and me. It was Thanksgiving, so the order was automatic. I was surprised no drinkers sat at our table.
 
‘How did you like the meal?’ Soros soon asked. I answered with my mouth full, ‘It mashes any Thanksgiving dinner at missions across the country.’ Soros called the chef to our table and made me repeat. I did, and couldn’t understand why the chef laughed, because savory is as much a result of hunger as palate.
 
There was an hour table talk of financial and political dessert that I didn’t partake. My value is always on empty pockets to survive by my wits, with the fewer dollars the more adventures to tell to be treated to such a feast. I felt like the Elephant Man of London celebrated for being different.
 
Thirsty from the long railroad ride, I guzzled bottles of Perrier, until asking one of five waters for a restroom. He pointed to a basement elevator, where I stepped out into the clutch of a man in a tuxedo who yoked me by the elbow to an open urinal. He stood behind like a shadow in a rank of other gents relieving ourselves with towels on the crooks of their arms in case of splashes.
I returned to our party where the table conversation was wound down, and Soros suggested I ride with him and his wife to their Long Island home to meet their 10-year old son. It was proposed that I become his bodyguard, in an era where kidnapping and ransom of children of the wealthy was in vogue. I was shocked and happy when the position was not cleared.
Soros offered instead a game of chess. We played two, with me winning the first with white using a King’s Gambit, and he the second with white using a Queen’s Gambit. He asked where I had learned to push the pieces, and I replied that while my plate was never full the first twenty years of my life, the chess board at our Idaho house always was. I had matriculated across the states to junior chess champion of Jackson, MI. ‘But’ I told him, ‘You have a better chess mind, and if we played more I should be at the losing end.’
 
He grunted competitively, and explained that he had been a baggage boy on a Hungarian railroad, and graduated a philosopher from university before attacking finance. That explained the man to my satisfaction. He owned a hermetically sealed mind from philosophy, was an objectivist, a self-honest fair man, and cheered the working underdog. He concluded instead of a tiebreaker, ‘You have a chip on your shoulder,’ and I cannot help but think he was talking about himself.
 
We met a few times later over the years in Manhattan. I did go on a 13-country tour of the world emerging markets in search of moderate risk with high, fast payoffs in 2nd-and-3rd countries having fresh exchanges that were becoming engaged with global markets. I spent a week each in India, Siri Lanka, Philippines, Indonesia, Korean, Thailand, and others to identify opportunities for Niederhoffer and, later on, Soros. The former made millions per day for weeks from my overnight dispatches of the low life indicators. These are the signs of economic times from the ground up including the length of cigarette butts and price of prostitutes. The honeymoon ended with ‘Black Tuesday’ when Niederhoffer lost much of his net worth due to my non-exacting observations in Thailand and to a quirk in the market.
 
Later, I was sent by the pair, Niederhoffer and Soros, to seed capitalism around the globe. I became Michael Anthony of the TV series ‘The Millionaire’ forty years hence taking cash into 3rd world countries to distribute $3 -5000 each to individuals who met my two criteria of self-honesty and a strong idea for a capitalist venture. These folks on three continents had get-rich thoughts without startup capital for a shoeshine stand, taxi business, barber shop, English school, and a hotdog stand where the delicacy was untasted. I carried cash since ATMs were nonexistent and traveler’s checks were nonnegotiable in backwater towns. The tour ended in Caracas where I was stabbed multiple times with a knife, causing superficial bleeding because of a coat of armor of $100 greenbacks sewn in my clothes that protected me, and robbed. I left on lighter feet, and the project terminated.
 
The Soros I knew was self-honest, which meant the truth hurt but fooling yourself will enslave you. He was fair so attracted birds of a feather. He was also a libertarian who advocates minimal state intervention in the free market and private lives of citizens, granting the right to anyone to go to heaven or hell in his own way. I don’t know if he’s changed, but note he has risen to global influence.

Jun

24

just read meredith wilson's book on work involved in writing The Music Man. so many details involved in the 7 years it took to write the musical and get it produced…last minute changes in previews in Philly and on opening nite. tension and anxiety simlar to waiting for certain premier similar to con man in music man in talking about the sagacity of a leader in the us.  but he did know the territory.
 
self-interview part 7: i like musicals. I've seen all of them. Jack Barnaby started my interest when he played pirates of penzance in my brighton beach home. i had just come from a disastrous event. Ned Bigelow was the main sponsor of squash in that day. he was 80 and was the worst referee in the world besides stu bruans. I thanked bigelow after the game and he said "i didnt do much." I said "that's rite." that remark cost the squash association hundreds of thousands of dollars. I didn't know any gilbert and sullivan then but subsequently saw every show of theirs especially enjoying the bluehill performances (who played the whole repertoire of 22 shows in order, each one magnificent). I knew I was in love with susan my wife at 22 when I called her from a pay phone (something i never did because i am a germaphobic) and told her that she must see the blue hill performance of Mikado. i subsequently saw bluehill perform Mikado on 4 separate occasions each 10 years apart. in addition to G&S, i admire oscar hammerstein as one of the greatest poets of the 20th century.
 
I wish to tell about the 3 greatest hero set pieces in all literature which sustain me and is one of the most ennobling experiences of my life. the three are the railroad scene from atlas shrugged, the stock scene with jack aubrey's old shipmates all come to prevent the enemies and insiders from throwing rocks at him, and the scene from meredith wilsons' book, the music man, where the understudy performs the whole show with 3 hours notice in Philly with the whole cast cuing and rooting him on. I am at the stage where any set piece in a musical is likely to make me cry (a characteristic i inherited from artie).
 
the other reason I am writing this selfie now is that it's just a matter of time perhaps a day or two at most when the S&P will rise to yet another all time high. its' been 7 days since the last all time high, and that's too long. i hope this guess is compensation for you for reading my stories inscribed in this selfie in the middle of a critical market.

Jun

24

Opportunities in De-Fi tokens explained. Uniswap, Curve, Synthetix, PolkaDot, Yearn?

Jun

22

typical running out of weak longs at bitcoin 28000, now up proverbial 15% to 31200.  it's guaranteed to happen.
 
euphemism of the day for description worthless but seeming sense: "gold in choppy waters". what other seemingly sentient things are said to hide their ignorance and uselessness?
 

Vic's twitter feed

Jun

21

Prime Day

June 21, 2021 | Leave a Comment

how does the surge of buying around prime day and the opening of wallets affect stocks? can this effect be generalized?

Jun

20

Vic's twitter feed

"agreement reached that we will not rock the boat tomorrow but will show our steadfastedness and support in the twins agenda thereby reenforcing our job longevity and our market value on the speakership trail"
 
we try to set an example for all our employees and customers. do everything by the book and dont let your guard down. and especially if we are virtuous ourselves lets make sure that the customers are doubly virtuous.
 
fed adopts approach to averaging that shiller, working adopted. let average stay at 2% but the current level be 10% and the past levels be 1%. it averages to 2% the same way p/e are 100 if you use earnigns 20 years ago. 
 
whats it like to be a big brokerage with constant calls on the market — which must be wrong in order to make profits for oneself.
 
what can we learn in markets from how things are seldom what they seem and what can i learn so as not to lose all  followers: Deception in animals
 
i am asked whether the big up move in bonds and the big down move in stocks portends anything predictive. on a qualtiative basis the big move in stocks was due to option expiration and the opportunity for the big boys in the infranstructure to take money from the public.
 
qualtiatively there is no reason for bonds to be up and stocks to be down. if there is inflation worries, then bonds should have been down big. but there are no inflation worries. only oldhearted men who refuse to adjust are concerned about inflation with bonds at this level.
 
however on a quant basis the stocks seem to have a bad monday in for them.  if same happens, there should be a big rise on Tuesday in stocks. the spus at a 18-day low, not quite a 20-day low, to remove all frustration when  the frustration is released by a 20 day lo, then S&P way up.

Jun

20

quote of day of extreme relevance: "A hundred years of faster and bigger transport has kept up and intensified this bombardment of every country by foreign species brought accidentally or on purpose by vessel and by air and also over land from that used to be isolated… the real thing is that we are living in a period of the world's history when the mingling of thousands of kinds of organisms from different parts of the world is setting up terrific dislocations in nature. We are seeing huge changes in the natural population balances of the world." Elton, 1958. The Ecology of Invasion by Animals and Plants. the key to crypto moves.
 
A reader expands:
 
Chair has pointed to N. Shigesada's work on Biological Invasions. The three phases before saturation are covered on p. 27 with many examples from plants, insects and humans for each.
 
A key concept is the Range Distance. Consider a new species, for example the Muskrat unknown in Europe before 1905. In 1905 five muskrats escaped from a farm near Prague; in the next 20 years they spread through all of Germany and Austria-Hungary in a pattern of roughly concentric circles on a map. The range  distance is defined as the square root of the occupied area divided by sqrt(pi). (there are also some other formulas for cases of highly non-concentric spread).
 
How does the Range Distance look like when plotted against time? There are 3 patterns that occur again and again.
 
In the initial establishment phase the range distance shows no increase. After this the Expansion Phase begins.
 
In the simplest and most common case Type 1, it shows linear growth. In the case of the muskrat it is pretty remarkable how close the observations come to a straight line. In the next phase the Saturation Phase the curve levels off and becomes a horizontal straight line.
 
Type 2 called biphasic expansion shows a slow initial linear spread, followed by linear spread at a higher rate. This was seen for the Himalyan thar, the European Starling and European finch, and the Japanese beetle.
 
Type 3 expansion shows a slope constantly increasing over time, resulting in an exponential looking curve. Nevertheless even in this case the Saturation phase follows and the slope decreases to zero. I assume the expansion of cryptocurrencies may be of the Type3 although I have never seen it drawn.
 
There are various explanations for these phases (for example why is there an Establishment Phase with no growth at all) that I will skip over for now. Hope this clarifies a few things. 

Jun

20

Vic's twitter feed

Nadal and Djokovic are incredibly slow for great players. they cant get to 3/4 of all the drop shots hit their opponent. Djokovic stretches too often from  base line instead of taking the extra step. i understand that Chrissie said it was the greatest match but from the screen it looked lackluster. one thing we can all learn from the match is to stop exulting and playing for the audience. if they each stopped emoting when they won a point, they'd have much more energy and concentration at the end. a market player should not talk or emote ever,
a good fast player gets to every drop shot. i never let the ball bounce twice against me in racket sports and i wasn't even fast. also, their overheads were hit down the middle not for winners like Federer. Nadal 's lugubrious style makes him slow to front.
 
by the way i admittedly was the slowest top squash player and had the lowest physical IQ of any players. but when I played tennis i never let an opposing drop shot bounce twice against me. i played thousands of tennis matches and was number 1 on very weak Harvard tennis teams.
 
finally my prediction of Nadal's decline comes true after 12 years. he looks like he's struggling on each shot like a hippopotamus. his mechanical advantage appears to be minus.
 
note that my prediction was made in the midst of Nadal winning the first set. i was also the first to say that Porzingis was a liability who would hurt every team he's on and same for Dantoni. i wish my knowledge and predictions of markets were half as good as my racket.
 
a wristy shot is destined to lose in the pinch in tennis or markets. that's why Tsitsipas will never win and how one predicted Novak would win and why flagellations at the close are non-starters.

Jun

18

Do Day Traders Rationally Learn About Their Ability?

Jun

18

• Stocks are back to their old timey habits of setting a new all-time high on 30% of the days in 2021 versus 23% of all days since 2001. The masters 100 companies know on which side of the bread there's butter and they embrace.
 
• The normally quasi-useful, quasi-academic Jason Zweig writes disparagingly of "investors" who buy a stock "purely because it's gone up a lot". But that must be tested.  The last good study I've seen on that is 20 years old. I believe it's a better-than-darts strategy.
 
• The 30-year bonds have gone up 5% since the beginning of may. The Fed has been vigorous in enforcing proper pronouns and gender speech to their numerous employees and research grantees but seems to be heart felt on helping the infrastructure along.
 

Vic's twitter feed

Jun

17

Vic's twitter feed

nothing about options trading — except it emphasizes a point i made in edspec that you should never trade an inactive market, you should never trade where the vig is large, and you should never trade with a few men named doc who worked at the same hospital.
 
the sander introduced the meeting and said that he met many traders who noted the implied volatility being much too  high. "to a man" he said, "all of those former traders have gone belly up." i referred to Jean Valjean at the trial of a criminal who was going to be falsely accused of stealing the candlesticks. i also referred to davy crocker sending out 5000 posters to his constituents acknowledging that he made a terrible mistake in voting for funds for a georgetown fire.
 
Not Yours to Give (the Davy Crockett story)
 
The one good thing that happened was that Dr. Merton the sociologist father at 80 years old wrote to me afterwards and asked me for the reference to the davy crockett story so I met him.
 
The only good thing that came out of my poker playing was that I visit the gamblers book shop in vegas whenever i go there. artie bailed me out of a $1000 loss in college and he had to go to the credit union to do it.

Jun

17

the pickle ball top players have as much ability as their tennis counterparts. they all have excellent reflexes and volleys at net and seem as fast.

Ben Johns vs Tyson McGuffin - Men's Singles GOLD Match Highlights - PPA Atlanta Open 2021

Jun

17

Vic's twitter feed
 
i lost a case with the jury taking 5 minutes to decide unanimously against me.  next the policeman who arrested me sued me for causing 1/8 of his heart attack. my college roommate Wes Horton defended me but the tables were stacked. my experiences in court have been like that.
 
what brings this to mind is the Virginia Chinese mom had her comparison to the cultural revolution shortened to 1 minute. she's lucky she didn't try to complain as I did. picture of arrest forthcoming.
 
for once the core CPI created more cost for the borscht and blintzes at the camp than the unadjusted figures.
 
this was a very progressive day. the meme stocks went down, GME -39% and AMC -13%. the top feeders made money with yet another all time high and the public lost big. further, the news of big guys son was canceled apace despite the Chris Harrison comp.
 
the WAPO fact checkers lame attempt too suppress the actuality of the meeting of the big guys son was buried, and no shout outs to the warp speed's incredible efficacy compared to current regs and procedures was noted. all things considered, it was a very bull day.
 
to say nothing about yet another 60-day high for bonds and the leeway this gives the infrastructure union dream to proceed apace.  all we need is some slight diminution in the recovery and climate change and union activity  will be at an all-time high.
 
it is good that the big pharms that suppressed the news of the efficacy and readiness of the vaccine until 1 day after the election is being rewarded by "Prez plans to purchase 500 million does of Pfizer vaccine to donate to other countries". a reward, a scratching back.
 
in the good old days i made mistake of insisting that i get paid in fulll for all the finders fees I earned. what a terrible mistake. i let my competitiveness in racket sports carry over to negotiations. often i was offered  a 10% reduction and I refused and ended up with zero.

Jun

17

Fans of large numbers say that if a foot falls in the arctic circle it can be felt via causality all the way to sea level in Slab City. This is true if you believe in causality which is chain of events within the realm of large numbers. Causality is the principal that everything has a cause, and causes an action. Chain of events is a number of actions and their effect that result in a particular outcome. Large numbers is the law of the highly interactive world that as a sample size grows, anything can and will happen.
 
Look at yourself in a mirror. This concept makes miracles the rule rather than exception, but my story has more meaning to me.
  
Chain of events is as hardened as #12 steel. These are the links:
 
• In 1979, I beat Miss World with a tennis shoe that led, 35 years later, to meeting the #1 kingpin of the Slabs.
• After beating her with my left Converse in a Sports Illustrated exhibition at Okemos, MI, I asked her out to McDonalds.
• We made love in the back of my ’74 Chevy van. She murmured, ‘That’s my first orgasm. I can’t wait to tell my girlfriends.’ 
• The lady’s photo, actually Miss World Runner-Up from Dearborn, MI, and me holding the Chuck ran in a SI article as evidence.  
• In 2013, my property on the fringe of the Chocolate Mountain bombing range was pillaged and burned by Slab brassers. I chased them in my faithful Converse Chucks with a plastic squirt gun in my pocket. I settled in the Slabs, tracing my stolen articles. 
• The first stop was the Slab kingpin who didn’t take nor have the booty. He heard about Miss World, and asked for proof, and on seeing the photo asked for advice. I became his medical and legal counsel for two years from 2013-5. 
 
If you do not believe this then you don’t believe in cause-and-effect within the context of the law of large numbers to grasp how, mathematically, random brute force can overcome precise logic. This is exactly what happened when I raised the shoe that caused the orgasm that introduced me to the kingpin, and all the other blessings of Slab City.

Jun

16

June 8

One woke up as if in a nitemare and heard a former candidate saying "we have to keep climate from advancing more than 1 1/2 degrees."  next a shot across the bow from the camp: "it would be fine if interest rates were to increase. and don't let this hinder the infrastructure."

amid the 99% anti-former-president news on Bberg, one occasionally heard an unbiased and unrehearsed piece. the chief scientist at John Hopkin opined that those who were vaccinated had no reason to wear a mask as they weren't susceptible or transmissible.
 
June 9
 
i have found that all my interactions with police and judges where i have stood on principle have ended up in disasters for me. I am often asked what artie would say about police diversity interactions these days. i believe he would have been in favor of a civilian corps to monitor traffic infractions. But his student, Bill McCarty, author of Vice Cop and holding the record for number of arrests, believes that problem is that now the arrested are resisting it rather than peaceably acceding. presumably the hate of police in the air engendered by the agrarians who wish to destroy civility incentivizes the problem.
 
Delta airlines came within a whisker of removing me from the plane. There were an infinity of progressive things   that were endemic and carefully mentored but little attention to passenger comfort, e.g. gates 1/2 mile from baggage claim that was cryptic.
 
in earlier days, i would have insisted that it was ridiculous to be timed on the interval between eating and masking, that i insisted on being left alone. but then the stewardess had the captain announce a warning that fbi and red coats would be waiting for any violators.
 
i come back from chicago. susan knows i'm too cantankerous to survive (how close i came to being arrested) but that's another story. worst of all is wheeling my luggage. i cant do it and am too proud to call for a wheelchair. sure enuf when I reach the baggage floor, there's susan. she's gently telling  the delta policeman that they shouldn't explode my lonely bag — that  her husband is always late.

Jun

10

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/see-the-most-bizarre-and-beautiful-animal-eyes-on-earth/?fbclid=IwAR3rbQHW-wXitATV4Bamu1xzYbyEqyjGEooEqhbATQz6P3PBnEIcogqDVDg
A marvelous look at the wonders of nature and the miracle of animal eyes
…there is probably much more in nature - and certainly in markets as well- which our own eyes could perceive…..and something to share with younger traders in particular
And the incredible thing with miracles is that they happen, too…

Jun

10

House Calls

June 10, 2021 | Leave a Comment

House calls are fast, economical, and necessary on the fringe of civilization or where people hate hospitals.  

I’m no human doctor, but since getting a motorcycle am continually consulted by text, message, or email to look in on someone in Slab City. This oasis in the desert has no doctor, and the hassle of bussing to a hospital to sit interminable hours in an emergency room is not worth the trauma. Instead, they call someone like me and we’re at their doorstep in five minutes.  

Today my two calls were within a mile. The first was a senior who one week ago had a stroke, followed by a heart attack, and fell on his nose on the sharp entrance to his trailer. The paramedics were called, made their diagnosis, put a bandaid on his nose, and he refused to go to the hospital. When I saw him this morning, the left side of his nose was gone and the nostril small opening coated with pus that flapped like a billows. We cleaned it with a Q-tip, and then I used an old trick from the Amazon that modern medicine has forgotten. We broke an antibiotic capsule in half, and dabbed the powder straight on the raw wound. It would heal, I know from personal experience, in a few days with no need for the ridiculousness of oral antibiotics when they can be applied topically.  

‘I’m not a doctor,’ I always remind before jumping on the motorcycle, ‘But call me if there’s no immediate improvement.’ I’ll make a follow-up visit in three days. 

The second house call was to a man who had been bitten on the small toe by an unascertained spider two weeks earlier. Left untreated, he had described by text that the toe looked like a sausage that his poodles wanted to eat. I was greeted at the gate by those pets who tried to bark me off, but I went around the fence to knock on the trailer side. He stuck his head out the window, and yelled them quiet. ‘I can’t walk on the foot, but here it is.’ He stuck it out the window and I did a diagnosis. The natural defenses were kicked in, with no swelling of the lymph along the leg, and I knew it would heal if he followed this treatment. ‘Soak it in Epson salts twice a day for 15 minutes, keep the foot elevated, and take these three antibiotic capsules. Break them open one-at-a-time to sprinkle 1/8th capsule on the open would every eight hours.’ He turned around and accepted them into one hand, and shook mine with the other.  

I never take payments except suppers, and referrals.   

Jun

10

This is a flare parachute fin. The flares you see hanging to the east of the Slabs over the Chocolate Mt. Bombing Range light the targets for helicopter strafing or troop movements. The yellow, white, or red flares are single, multiple, or often in a ladder that drifts lazily down, or on a breeze. If you follow the light, and dead reckon after the flare extinguishes in five minutes, you can pick up one of these to make an umbrella for your camp. The cannister by my right elbow is where the parachute was fit and makes a fine awning. I have read a book in pitch dark from a half-mile under a hanging flare, like a candle.   

 

Jun

10

After reading more about Professor Bejan, am looking at winning /losing streaks in a quite a new way.  
Not just in markets, tennis (Nadal /french open…), but also in politics of course.  Many yrs ago, I met a descendant of Oberst von Stauffenberg - the fellow who tried to assisinate Hitler back in '44.   And we spoke about why none of the assisinatiions (there were so many) work?  Now I know why.  Because Hitler was in a bull-market.

Jun

10

Diversity , native American. tv commercials at least 100 to 1 in favor of persons of color compared to steml very bull.

In honor of 4 great men, George, Stigler, Steve Stigler, James Lorie, and Arthur Niederhoffer, one will attend their 30th consecutive memorial in Chicago Monday, Susan is very concerned that I may not make it back. Do your best.

The movements of prices of markets have been compared to many things, ( I have not been remiss in this regard) , random walks, ball room dancing (darvis), football downs, sonata forms , traffic flows, etc, kindly add a few but one that I have not seen before that I believe is quite apt is bird watching. many minutes of waiting with nothing happening , then a seconds of a flurry as the birds come into sight, the best times for bird watching in markets (et) are 3.48 pm, 930 pm, 330 am . (these times must be tested)

Jun

10

Prices are as deceptive as any flora or fauna in nature. they use all the techniques that they naturally have from evolution as well as a million depletive traits that they have learned from nature and culture I shave about 3o feet from my price and trading setup. I have live prices in both places. it takes me about10 second to put down my razor and sprint to the trading. today was typical. I take on stroke of the razor down, and I not that sp is 2084.50. I know from past quantifications that before employment this is very bull. I rush to the trading setup. about 8 seconds. by the time I get to the trading room, price has risen to 4284.50 ( correction) to 4292 a typical happening . solution don't shave and spend every second at trading but nature knows i cant do this because of ageism and stroke. so its not possible for me t profit from deception. but one has to admire the exility of the deception which is recurring and just for me. other deceptions are just for you.

Sumo bout takes 60 seconds many twists turn, holds strategies in just 60 seconds. its very fast paced and compressed. like the prices in 3 seconds they move a world. what other events have as much exciting happening in a short time? 

You might think that the solution is to use limit orders but even in the off hours the high frequency boys beat you o every price. you mite think this unfair and that corrective actions to conquer the high frequency is appropriate. but if you try it, and are too obvious you could get fined 1000 times the amount a issue and have to beg not to go to jail. at a hearing concerning your attempt to even the paying field, you must give away all your rites and appeal to the mercy of the stat committee not to behead or hang you pair of pants . not tooo low and not tooo high. good for infrastructure and reflection of socialist programs past and future both sides of disunity can berate the other that the numbers show bad or good as the numbers were apparently set at a meeting at the camp de rigeur am short until 9 am

Okay I shave a pyrrhic victory so many if only if only I didn't have foot drop I could reached trading in 5 seconds. I made reasonable on my longs broke even at 4208 on my shorts. if only I ha done what I wanted to do. and I held all my longs at 4179 if only I am still angry. I try again at 1030

Jun

10

You wouldn't think that the Bad One is familiar with 'all that Ms. Lasked did to stop Immunological research but somehow they do. in 1980 Livingstone wheeler , followers wrote names articles how Mary Lasker stopped research on immune approaches to cancer but cant find these article any more except for her support of the increasing budget from 3 m to 1000 bill so I take back my post about her harm.

Boys put on masks and head for evening haunts.

I was temporally derailed form axcertaining all the harm that the chair woman did to cancer research. either all her bad work has been sanitized or my recollection is flawed. we shall see when the professor gets back. apparently the admin is hoping for a good jobs report increase ( forget about the infrastructure for a while), and they are talking the good effort that the cdc did with vaccinations adding to jobs as mentioned they were in a pair of pants.

Reminds one of the Yankees talking about how all their 159 average hitters are improving. how can the yabikkees survive with so much bad hitting in the end of their line up. apparently the algos admire the former chairwoman as I continue to lose subscribers. that's okay ill find her insidious work that helped to cost Artie his life along with Burton the head of the private counterpart that worked hand in hand with the chemo de riigeur

Nobody asked me but why is the current vilification of Dr. Cattle so surprising given that he wrote a love letter to the cattle trader and was obviously a tool of the cattle trader wing.

He certainly was one of the forces that sunk Pele in so many ways but especially denying the imminence of the vaccine along with the masters 100 and the two friends who worked together at Rice. why did they hate Pele so much its not cricket with all the meme stocks that the bottom feeders have in their portfolios going thru the roof. there ought to be a law.

Larry Ritter challenged me to find 1 000 ways. and then he would tell me about the legitimacy of the maestros thesis as he was the thesis adviser. he gave me a death bet confession and a publics that it was a fake. a bunch of old routine pieces that his firm had disseminated surely the ratio of pig iron production to recreational vehicles in Elkardt was somewhat out of focus "it s impossible to figure out where Dr.cattle was on these issues because we don't know" a fox investigator announcer of diversity. why is it so hard to future out he wrote a love letter to the cattle trader and every interview he gave had the effect of hurting those who his interviews had the effect of hurting al those who didn't receive 99725 in cattle trading . my article with Ms. Baum called out the only mystery. what happened to the other $275.one more into the breach

Jun

10

If you'd lie to see mentions occasionally to the founder of multivariate statistics and the birch back canoes of the Chippewa Native Americans do consider retweeting my tweets lest they vanish.

foxnews.com/sports/mike-krzyzewski-retire-duke will this effect the record for foul shots and defense of the constructal numbers

Coach k's departure ahs disheartened some of the constructal shooters… only a 15 point range all day and night today with a new move of onlly1 ticket from the open of 4206.

Self interview part 5. what are the best quantitive things for market people to read. instead of concentrating on calculus a nd differential equations, aspiring students should read a good book on discrete mathematics. I lie James anderson discrete mathematics but discrete mathematics with applications by rosen is also popular and good. In statistics the best books for aspirants for biostatics books. I like Wayn Daniel biostatistics and I go thru it once a week to keep in shape it has good sections on regressions , estimations  Wayne Daniel bio statistics. most of the usual stats books are much too specialized for the beginner. however, a good book on survival analysis like survival analysis and event history by d. Kleinbalm is essential. the amazing thing about stats books these days are they are all based on data analysis and r and lies with statistics. very worthless. i seem that that statistics 11th edition by Robert white is modern most recommended. a typical discrete math book has section ono logic, s ets, circuit diagrams, graphs, and trees, umber theory, counting and prob, recursion, difference equations ( my favorite, , networks, theory of codes, enumeration of colors krings etc.. all of these topics a re much more useful for the market person than knowing how to differentiate and integrate I am dining with stigler on Monday, June 7, a tradition honoring our parents and mentors which we have continued for 30 years and I will ask him what stats texts he recommends to his intermediate students and report back.

A good article on coach k's style ishttps://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/duke/article123638384.html I was going to write on his style but since I don't know anything about basketball I thought I should leave it at this, except I have been impressed that he has led his freshmen to almost as may titles as the seniors, also, his players continently win scholar athlete awards, and defensive awards. he says he picks players based on character, scholarship, a nd talent. apparently he dies. he also brings back all this players to a summer camp that keeps them in touch with the for met greats. my two duke students camp out under a tent for 3 days annually to get tickets to the game where duke has won something like 95%of the games at Cameron stadium with non- conference teams. since he is 50 years older than his players he keeps in touch with music.

What has regulation wrought and how many years would it have taken for a covid vaccine for the Chippewa Native American in current style.

There was a listlessness in late 18th century France as many children of the first estate were without jobs and espoused the theories of Rousseau. Both Veridi and Mozart wrote about the lack of work effort of Paris musicians and both walked out on rehearsals. Mr. Hansen has compared the situation to Petronius Satiricon Spirit of Mary Lasker lives 

Jun

10

Keys to game today. many manufacturing indexes around 10 am et. will there be camp meeting to lower them or will we wait for transport on thus afternoon before employment.

Wasn't the euphoria over Phil Jackson a precursor of what we now see in the professional sports leagues.

Shout out to Irene Morrison a great business woman and friend of 60 years. shout out to Rorianne Schrade the greatest pianist I ever heard and a genius. I beg of her to indicate whether Leopold Mozart's father was a bad influence on him in his waning years. and whether the biographies I love and have posted are fair and accurate.

Jun

8

Holiday

June 8, 2021 | Leave a Comment

https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/652277491995688960/memorial-day-trading-generally-dull-before-long

https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/652443080575909888/days-after-memorial-day-improving

 

Jun

8

"The fact is that, except in rare cases, man is not a reasoning being. He is dominated by authority, and when the facts are not in accord with the view imposed by authority, so much the worse for the facts. They may and indeed must win in the long run; but in the meantime the world gropes needlessly in darkness and endures much suffering that might have been avoided."
William H. Bates  (Opthamologist).  1921 (New York)
Dr Bates was a very curious man, and an idealist, and he encouraged his patients to see whether they needed corrective lenses at all (or perhaps weaker lenses were sufficient.) The more general point for us is that we often don't test things in life or markets enough and maybe we don't even know what we ought to test.  Glad to be part of this group for markets though as large institutions often keep ppl in sort of a trance and hinder curiosity.
https://www.bettereyesightnow.com/blog/31377-what-we-believe-affects-what-we-see

Jun

8

This is a no brainer. I've been trying to figure out how much the lack of open outcry is contributing to the volatility.  https://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/crops/pit-closures-corn-soybean-market-instability-trader-says?fbclid=IwAR1JeG44OrJhEDorqomj7fFmrjMSMhOuiOdrK5KCZutB63pnhKzK5DWU4xE

Jun

8

Ant Raft

June 8, 2021 | Leave a Comment

A gallon jug of water out on the ground each night to cool for morning drink, but last night left the lid 1/8th-inch ajar. This morning a 2” ant ball floated at the top. They are tiny red ants (Solenopsis invicta) 1/10th inch long and the colony had come marching up the jug thirsty all night to drop, ant-paddle, and form a raft of about 3000 members.  I almost swallowed the bolus like a thirsty drunk a martini olive.  

Dumping the raft on the sands, the colony bounced alive and instantly spread an expanding circle outward like a pebble propagating a wave on a pond. The propagation rate of individuals in the increasing circle was a foot every three seconds until, in ten seconds the ball was no more. Every one survived! 

As they disappeared over their little event horizons butt still in my view, they crawled over and bit me a hundred times, from which there was no escape since I wasn’t going to give up the best seat in the house. There, I fashioned a theory from them and my personal experiences of human reaction to catastrophe. 

Now we know what ants do, and people react in kind. The medulla floods the bloodstream with epinephrine, cortisol, serotonin, dopamine, testosterone, estrogen, and norepinephrine. The difference between blood in man and hemolymph in ants is the latter has no red blood cells to circulate oxygen, and yet this cocktail goes to every spine of the body. The tendency reaction is to cling to the nearest dear thing to you. Psychologists call it crisis bonding. But after the strike is over, it’s every man or ant for himself. At the end, they regroup to co-exist with the stronger tie of the memory.  

Though called a raft, the float is a slightly flat-bottomed sphere that, due to the tight interweave of arms, legs, and antennas, is as light as a cork. This formation is particular to the fire ant, and if Solomon the great entomologist advises to ‘go to the ants and learn lessons from it’ then man may make bubble rafts to bob waves across the oceans. During cloudbursts and floods here in the Sonora their passageways fill up with water and force the ants to evacuate their home. Instead of scattering individually, a layer of ants come together to hold tight that serves a base for the rest of the colony to comfortably mill around on. Due to the tight weave knit of the ants, water cannot penetrate the raft allowing the ants to stay dry and buoyant. They float up and out the nest on the tide, reminding me of riding the freight top through Mexico with dozens of tramps. 

The ants can remain in the raft formation for weeks if necessary, or, when the floodwaters subside they are able to establish a new underground home beneath wherever they land. I could have left the raft in the jug for weeks and it would have survived, while I went thirsty. Like people, they had bonded, and once the strike ended on the sands, it was every ant for himself in all directions. They returned to central, crawled over my feet and body biting again, and dug a new home beneath me.  

 

Jun

8

https://www.wsj.com/articles/government-race-against-a-cure-11622669124?mod=hp_opin_pos_1

Jun

8


This is a Sonora chipmunk, properly termed a desert antelope squirrel (Ammospermophilus leucurus). They are prolific out here, and used to form a maid service that cleaned my trailer of pancake crumbs each morning. Then they ran up and down my legs looking in my pockets for more. I’m known for my ankle weights, and this one is sitting on one snacking.  

 

A kin out here that I have caught and live released, by cage and hand, is the desert trader rat. This is the loveable packrat with a Mickey Mouse face that always leaves something bright in trade. Cowboys used to get them drunk on whiskey around the summer campfires and give them their spurs to lead to their burrow, called a midden, where the rodents hoard gold. Having the same idea, I hand-trained a packrat from birth to release in ghost towns and fetch gold and spurs. I thumped the ground three times with my foot, and every time it came running back and up my leg with whatever it had found. I nicknamed it Nugget. 

 

The other species staring in the face, as I awoke on a ground mattress the other morning, is the Mojave ground squirrel (Xerospermophilus mohavensis) stayed south to the Slabs. This is also likeable though less tamable. The Belle of Slab City, our female nemesis except to those whom she is sicced off, is said to be fond of climbing to the top of trailers or RV’s and slicing a thin line in the vent screen, and lowering by string a dead Mojave squirrel on the owner’s pillow, as a calling card. It is done while the owner is away or sleeping. 

 

Have no fear; none of these is rats. There are seven species of rodents out here, and I have never seen a city rat. What you are calling rats resemble them somewhat, but they are either trader rats or hairless squirrels.   

Jun

8

https://twitter.com/kedianomics/status/1401308013240086530

Jun

8

Self interview part 2 cont. I wore those Keds to my first tennis tournament and all the other boys made fun of me. and my first round opponent called out to the 1 seed l'll see you in the finals" that got me so angry that I won the match and lost in the finals to a Lebhar

I've always had several defects in my tennis game and never achieved much in the game. I played a lot of double with my father however, and always was the 1 doubles team. My partner frank Ripley told me at a 5oh reunion that I was the worst double player he ever partnered that wasn't much of a test in those days because Harvard had outdoor courts only and the wind was usually 50 miles an hour. after one victory Jack barnaby the great rackets coach and a mentor I revere contract. me for a very smart game. At that time I told him my most memorable  and stupid thing ever " that's nothing Jack, wait till you see me in that other game you coach( i had never played squash) ill be the champion at it" that remark has followed me in infamy

The 30 year long bond price has been between 157 and 158 for several months, an incredibly small range. all the talk about an inevitable increase in yields and what this will do to devastate stock rices seems to be overwrought to say the last. take the fear of the.

Employment announcement for May 7, there are warning s that this mite make the Fed hasten the tapering. but it will de pend on how likely the stimulus bills will be k, what the likely effect on the 2022 elections will be, how much pressure the twins will exert to will accentuate the need to hyper start the economy, the desire of Chanceg ardner to stay as chief and myriad other things including the need for more borrowings relative to the expectation rite now. In any case , its anyone's game and the most ridiculous thing. is to see

a giant move either way , e.g. socks go down because t because tbondpices should go down but bond prices aactuallygo up and vice versa

The fear of bond price declines which is the favorite talking point of the old guard especially is fanned by the general climate of fear that is endemic now. the fear of pandemic, the fear of service increase, the fear of war, the fear of breakdown in crypto

The fear of climate change, : all these fears tend to be more harmonious for those who favor more government efforts to allocate capital

Certain bureaus a re well known since the time of the tricky one to hold meeting at the camp before release and would anticipate that there will be a decision to eubonicize numbers to downsize so that infrastructure will be apace.

I've enjoyed the relation and narration of John Sterling and susan waldman , together for 30 years. Larry ritter listened to them rather than television 20 years ago and alerted rookies like me. But but, the yankees have commercials that make the listener.

Listener small. they talk about racism, and depravity, and inequity and make you ashamed to enjoy baseball while the world and U. S. is so bad. Almost as bad as the NY gov. commercials bi 5 deputy commissioners of diversity and the geico commercials which make you ashamed.

Thank you Native American tribal financial overseer of the Chippewa Dean Parisian for many years for followig and retweetig my humbel thoughts 

Dean Parisian your retweets of my humble thoughts to your former tribal clients tend to counterbalance mine regarding how bad baseball commercialls make you feel these days. By the way , Larry Ritters bet friends on the yankees bus were nicknamed Native American or what Larry Ritters book on the good old days when baseball was the National Pastime,

Self Interview part3, " vic tell us the story about meeting Paul Volker in Larry's hospital bed." Paul was a friend of Larrys and worked for him while Larry was chair of Ny Finance. He came to visit Larry while the collab and I were there to help Larry. To make conversation I suggested to Paul that the Glory cassetes and cds were very moving. Paul said that he didn't have a recorder , television or cassette because he didn't believe in technology he felt it was redundant and wasteful and expensive. He hated technology almost as much as the sage  no wonder Paul was lionized for brining the us economy to a halt by raising interest rates from 5% to 18% as it brought business and enterprise to a standstill

Jun

8

Self interview inspired by Tim Ferris. part 1. Name 5 books that you listen to or read that you would gift to friends every day. 1. the time that it never rained; Elmer Kelton. 2. don Quixote Michael Cervante. 3. The Life and works of Mozart Jeremey Shipman. 4 Far. side of the world Patrick Brian- 5: How Innovation works Matt Ridley 6: Monte Walsh jack Schaeffer 7; Life and Works Giuseppi Verdi– Jeremy shipman.

Self Interview part 2. :Tell us a story or teach us something: My father Arthur Niederhoffer was the perfect man. 5 librarians cam to his funeral and 7 people toale me that they loved him like an older brother. He hated gambling. told me repeatedly that all gamblers die broke.

Part 2 cont: liked to tell me the story of one of his best friends who lost everything in a card game on his way to his wedding. One day at the age of 11 , Moey Orenstein the greatest doubles handball player suggested that I play George Baskan a former pro baseball player who had a temper and broke his hand against the wall after missing an easy off the wall shot in handball. He was the best paddle ball player. I did not know Moey even knew me. I won a betting game 21-14 and my uncle Howie a handball champ said he'll never forget how I blocked Baskan out an out strategized him. at the e nd of the game, the bettors gave me a pair of Sneakers(big black Keds ) from Milties a retired policeman who knew how to vulcanize a rubber guard on Keds. MY father came into the bach after a 4-12- shift and I ran up to him , said Dad , I just beat Baskin and I won a pair. " that terrible he said. give the sneakers back I don't want you to be a gambler. you'll lose everything and become a degenerate." i became very popular in the media when I won my first Squash Nationals at age 20. Most of the popular mag mags ran big picture stories about me. They all liked to tell the Baskan story. Artie saw the stories and said " leave Baskan alone. You're embarrassing him"

Jun

8

Weekend associations nearness to all time highs, native Americans drums , dance, filibusters, unmasking, exuberance, Deidre, Matt, Kelton, Milano, pseudo science, Dr. cattle ,Holiday moves around Memorial day, professor rests after miss, new gen. in tennis, Joke to win Fr.

Jun

8

To my native American followers of Chippewa origins or other — until the Nikkei hits 3000, now 3% below and the s hits 42200, not 1/10% away , there has not been a consilience, a resolution of earthly cares, no more frustration,— harmony.

To my native American followers, the great white father dined at café Milano with Ukrainian diplomats and left big tracks.

Jun

8

Let the algo know that one of most loyal followers is dean Parisian who served as chief financial adviser to Chippewa native American tribe they should stop taking followers away from me for past references to dR. Cattle , the cattle trader, the Kindergarten twins.

Chance Gardner. the American dream, old man river, the Masters 100 and how the market loves progressives ,and why checkers is more stem and just as complex as chess.

Little known and important fact Dr. Brett Steenbarger was the basketball team manager of coach K, Duke team30 years ago . It was he that told me about the coaches rule of 10 consecutive foul shots before heading to entertainment and study. dr. Brett is one of those persons

Dr. Brett cando anything.. But I discovered and promote him 30 years ago. He has been kind to acknowledge that fact but in truth he would have risen to the top regardless of my helping hand.

I am sure he would be pleased that I use the 10 foul shots to lionize duke prof, a. Bejan to accentuate the markets 50000 fold a century drift 

Jun

8

Hello professor Bejan,, were you shooting some hopps with coach z

Professor does coach k still make you hit 10 foul shots in a row before you can get back to you normal activities. would you kindly ask him for a furlough 

The professor will be back after study period he still has a few to go. it reminds one of the man who holds the consecutive foul shooting record. he stopped at 1346 inn a row on a make. the darn gym closed.

http://recordholders.org/en/list/freethrows.html

May

25

Jack Cook writes:

UBS, Nomura Fined $450 Million For Bond Cartel Chatroom Collusion

Thursday, May 20, 2021 - 03:16 PM

As if having clueless prime brokers who just cost them hundreds of millions in losses wasn't enough, on Thursday morning Nomura and UBS, both of which were hammered by the Archegos implosion, were hit with another heft fine totaling 371 million euros ($452 million) by the European Union for colluding on euro government bond trading during the region’s sovereign debt crisis.

UBS was fined €172 million and Nomura will have to pay €129.6 million for participating in a traders’ cartel that swapped commercially sensitive information from 2007 to 2011 when eurozone bond yields soared; UniCredit was fined 69 million euros, according to Bloomberg.

Today's fines are the culmination of the EU spending the past decade probing how bank traders swapped information in chatrooms. At the same time it approved billions of euros in government support to keep many European lenders alive during the financial crisis.

The EU said traders on European government bond desks were in regular contact, mainly on Bloomberg terminal chatrooms, where they “informed and updated each other on their prices and volumes offered in the run-up” to eurozone government bond auctions “and the prices shown to their customers or to the market in general.”

Citigroup, RBS and JPMorgan were among five banks that agreed in 2019 to pay EU fines of over 1 billion euros for colluding on foreign-exchange trading strategies. Bank of America, Credit Suisse and Credit Agricole were fined about 28.5 million euros last month over chatrooms where traders swapped information on trading of U.S. supra-sovereign, sovereign and agency bonds. The EU is still investigating some banks for a related cartel.

It was “unacceptable, that in the middle of the financial crisis, when many financial institutions had to be rescued by public funding these investment banks colluded in this market at the expense of EU member states,” Margrethe Vestager, the EU’s antitrust chief, said in an emailed statement according to Bloomberg. Her criticism appears to have been aimed at two banks that weren’t fined. A Royal Bank of Scotland Group unit escaped a fine because it was the first to tell regulators. It received a U.K. bailout in 2008. Portigon, the successor bank to bailed-out and failed German lender WestLB, avoided a levy because it had no revenue last year.

Bank of America Corp. and Natixis SA participated in the cartel but weren’t fined because they had quit the cartel five years before the EU started its probe. While the euro-bond fines are far lower than previous EU cartels, they do allow the banks’ customers sue for damages if they can prove higher costs were passed on to them.

The news was not what UBS shareholders wanted to hear just weeks after the bank sheepishly revealed that it too had been hammered by Archegos, if not quite as badly as its cross-town rival; the bank said the fine could hurt second-quarter results by as much as $100 million. It’s considering an appeal and has “taken appropriate action years ago to mitigate and improve processes,” it said in a statement.

For its part, Nomura said the fine “relates to historic behavior” by two former employees “for an approximate 10-month period in 2011.” The bank “will consider all options, including an appeal” and “has introduced increased measures to ensure that we conduct our business with the highest levels of integrity,” it said in an emailed statement

Other banks were also unhappy: UniCredit “vigorously contests” the fine and will appeal to the EU courts, it said in a statement. The bank “maintains that the findings do not demonstrate any wrongdoing.”

Because since when do banks view criminal rigging of markets as a "wrongdoing."

Bud Conrad  writes

Thanks for the report.

The on-going fines sound big, but they keep coming. I don't have the numbers, but I guess that the profits are much larger than the fines. More importantly nobody goes to jail. The result is that the new crop comes along to repeat the scams and rigging. The banks pay huge bonuses. Nothing changes. The banks just consider modest fines as a cost of doing business, and the regulators often don't prosecute even what problems are revealed. 

The US SEC never investigated Madoff, even when they were given the scam on a silver platter. My interpretation after Clayton is that the SEC doesn't want to mess up markets by doing their job. They let CEO Musk openly lie and only slap him on the wrist, because they said they wouldn't want to hurt the shareholders. It was Madoff running out of money and turning himself in, to then die in jail. In the electronic world we have better tracking, but I think they will have better ways to cover up their processes.  Maybe Europe is better, but I doubt.

May

25

In the 1980s Steam Train Maury Graham, king of the hobos, told me at the wheel of his Cadillac after the Brit hobo convention on the way to an Ohio nursing home to tell tales of the rails, 'If I had to do it again, I'd walk rather than ride the rails of America for a greater appreciation of our country.'  

I beat him to the punch, and walked a few miles on many rails throughout the USA to sample what is there. Once I lost my shoes from a jiggling flatcar and walked into a hobo jungle where they raised the bottle to ‘The Shoeless Tramp’. It would have been shameful to refuse a swig and potential tuberculous. Walking the rails brought true meaning to the hobo posey over and over, ‘Hark, hark, the dogs do bark, the tramps have come to town!’  

I am convinced the first rail makers in the span between narrow and standard gauge rails laid the ties just shy of a step and long of a stride to upset the pedestrian. Soon, you retreat to an access road. Every RR line has an access road along the original 19th or 20th century rights-of-way that we walk in lieu of the track. I’ve hiked hundreds of rails, a few steps at a time, and it’s fascinating. Bed is where the head is each night. Sometimes the access road gets overgrown in the South, or is absent in the East where public roads gain the track for repair. I like the idea that, compared to walking public roads, railroads keep you away from the traffic, fumes, noise, people, and police.   

There is a small town, sometimes ghostly, every 100 miles-or-so throughout the USA rail system. These stand from the steam train days when the tracks were laid to host water tanks to feed the hungry engines, and a newspaper of hobo symbols. 

a Slabber showed me yesterday a lightweight, detachable extension he built with a caster to rest on the rail adjacent to the one his bike tires are on. He'll ride his rail bike on the Union Pacific line from Slab City eight miles to Calpat, CA for supplies, as the trains pass only every other hour. His is simpler and lighter than the online kits.     

The rails-to-trails movement started in the mid-1060s as a quiet Midwest phenomenon that quickly spread to the major metropolitan areas. The idea was to convert the unused rail corridors, which were closing rapidly across America, into public trails. As tracks were pulled, people instinctively began walking along the old corridors, socializing, enjoying nature, and marveling at the bridges and tunnels. Walkers were joined by joggers, and rails to trails has become worldwide. There should be a transcontinental path that connects to other countries with similar, so one may journey around the world and open a new class of tourist trade.    

However, I’ll wear my boots instead of a bike. Sometimes you hop a boxcar and find the companionship of a hobo dog. 

May

25

Closing Time

May 25, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Sushil Kedia writes:

Closing TIme of key contracts, around the world has the same character feeding the vig. Irrespective of whether this character speaks Japanese, Korean, Chinese, Malaysian, Hindi, Pashto, Hebrew, German, English or American English. 

The compulsion to not carry a losing trade overnight, to square off excess positions that cannot be funded overnight etc. etc. provide a good enough number of hands who are willing to be forced out and required to be forced out at close. 

If I can spot, from my back-benches in global finance a ready made bunch of pigs to be slaughtered everyday, I am wondering why wont the 200 Billion Dollar Liquidity pumps whether run by a rocket scientist or by anyone would not be already squeezing them hour by hour as the sun moves from the East to the West? 

Wondering what is a good way to structure a study that tries to isolate statistical evidence for reversing extremas N minutes before the close of related exchanges. 

Say the Closing TIme of top 5 liquidity producing exchangs of crude future world over are noted down and a statistical study of N minutes before closing time and after closing time of each of these 5 exchangs throws up a pattern? 

And then if equity index futures that produce the top 10 volumes even if each equity index contrat is a distinct entity, is there a closing time ebb and flow that is being created by the Scientists' algorithms?  

Victor Niederhoffer writes

This is a very interesting and  an suggestive post. let's have some   feedback on ow to approach this query 

Jared Albert  writes

I think closing time/price as the sole predictor is too broad and noise will swamp any effect. 

So, to me,  the first step is classify the various conditions that exist before the close. For example, days up vs down, up/down on day, distance from x day max/min etc.

There are so many predictor variables that I don't think this is a frequentist kind of problem lending itself to logistic regression and lots of crosstabs for example.

So step one is a machine learning classification model to separate the states using the closing time movement as the target for training. 

IF it turns out that there are classifiable 'set-ups', then one could run analysis within the most promising classifications.

May

25

Dimple Solar

May 25, 2021 | Leave a Comment

This may spark controversy among solar connoisseurs, however it is what works after living 25 years off-grid out here in Nowhere, Sonora.  

I’ve forgotten everything I knew working for the first solar company in Colorado, Rocky Mountain Solar & Wind, because the desert is a different beast where the sun shines every day. You don’t need to get fancy, simple is better, and you can’t spend much money.  

There are two basic solar setups I’ve used that work. The first is car camping where you have one battery in your vehicle and one under the front seat with a double-strand wire connecting in parallel (+ to + and – to -). Run your accessories to the one under the seat. Put an inline toggle between the batteries and switch it off when the car isn’t running. As you drive, the spare battery charges from the one under the hood. You’re a happy camper never worrying about being stranded from a battery running low.  

When you graduate from car camping to a trailer, and think you require a more sophisticated system, it’s nearly as simple.  Buy 3 marine batteries from Walmart for $100 each, and two 100-watt solar panels from Amazon.com. Glue the panels flat on your roof so they won’t be seen and stolen.  

For either option above, dress your setup like this:  Digital voltmeters cost $10 at Amazon.com and every battery should have one. Simple Inverters are $20 at Walmart. Always put a $3 inline fuse on the positive line close to the battery. 

That’s all. No charge controller, diodes or all those other big words. This is a barefoot solar system for the desert. 

Now I’m going for a walk with a $15 mini-panel on the brim of my straw hat to charge a cell phone, and an icecap under it of crushed ice in a double-baggie with a pinhole that melts in a trickle faster and faster as it gets hotter and hotter.  

May

25

 I helped mom wash dishes out of respect. The lessons of washing dirty dishes are:  
  • Learn to be detail oriented. 
  • Clean inside to out. 
  • Operate under time-temperature pressure with diminishing resources. 
  • Work on your feet. 
  • Stand hot water. 
  • It's not done until it's done right. 
  • It's an anecdote to confusion. 
  • It's not my standard.  

By the time I could shave my conclusion was there will always be dirty dishes, so let the bacteria dance.  

That is the point. Millions of bacteria sit on my plate overnight to become part of the next meal, and to increase immunity. It’s the old soldier line, ‘An enemy makes me stronger.’ Without them, we shrivel and die.  

AMR (antimicrobial resistant bacteria) is called a global burden. It occurs when bacteria multiply to change in response to antibiotics. But if your immune system is strong you won’t get sick and don’t need to worry about it. AMR to me is largely propaganda of the pharmaceutical industry. The theme of drug-resistant microbes is the greatest con since the original sin.  

Immunity is a natural process that has existed long before modern antibiotics. Traces of antibiotic-resistant bacteria have even been found in ancient Egyptian tombs. In fact, we are seeing those same bacteria today because they reproduce by binary fission. In this process the bacterium, which is a single cell, divides into two identical copies of themselves. It’s more fascinating to watch under a electron microscope than pornography. 

People take for granted that we need to take showers, clean our house, make the beds, launder clothes, and wash dishes. The next day you start over again. I'd rather read a book. The medical one I wrote refutes the germ theory of disease and puts the blame squarely on a compromised host. These are us due to poor diet, dirty air, treated water, lack of exercise, stress, and overprescribed drugs 

The ultimate medical class I took was microbiology because we created our own world in petri dishes. These are a shallow dish with a thin medium to grow microorganisms. You pick your tribe and inoculate the medium. The response in the petri is anything from a boom town to a ghost town. The advantage is you see the growth hour-by-hour and ceiling results within 24-48 hours. To view this is godlike, and of great benefit in medical diagnosis. You may also sprinkle on antibiotics or other microorganisms to control evolution. Hence, likely, our Covid. 

The dish is also deeply philosophical. If you add shame to a petri dish, it needs three ingredients to grow exponentially: secrecy, silence, and judgement. If you put the same amount of shame in the petri dish and douse it with empathy, it can’t survive.  

Key to this in my life is making yogurt in an unheated Michigan garage called Nirvana. The basic steps were:  

  • Heat milk over a candle. 
  • Cool it to about 110F. 
  • Add yogurt starter from the last batch.  
  • Pour the milk into a jar and incubate on top the indoor doghouse. 
  • Place the jar on my desk to cool.  

The secret ingredient is the dab of old yogurt culture you put in the milk. This converts the milt into yogurt including the probiotics that are reproducing all the while by binary fission. Store-bought yogurt was expensive and filled with corn syrup, preservatives, and artificials, minus probiotics. Probiotics are live beneficial bacteria in the gut that aid digestion and enhance the immune system. My yogurt was so cultured it should have been allowed in the opera.  

I had a perpetual motion machine of yogurt for one year. A little of the old batch to make a big new, just add milk. At the end of one year, I was eating the same daughter bacterial cells as on day one, and exact replicas of those first created on earth. It was a muscular dairy industry when the price of milk was 35-cents per gallon.  

All the while, I ate off one plate. Shake, wipe don’t wash, but be sure to reuse it within 24-hours. Just let the bacteria multiply. They are the fastest reproducing organisms in the world, doubling approximately every ten minutes. That is faster than the geometric progression of grains of wheat doubling on the squares of the king’s chessboard. Think of it as your personal pan petri to greater immunity. 

The seduction of the exponential curve begins with one unclean plate. The peoples I have observed in 100+ countries who rarely get sick in filthy circumstances without medication are hobos, mechanics who don’t wash their hands, long-distance hikers, Slabbers, and third-world countries. The latter get ill mainly for statistical data to bilk financial assistance from first-world bleeding hearts.  

If you see your reflection in your plate you’re liable to get sick. I don’t clean mine to better health. 

 


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