Sep

29

since 01-01-2001 there have been 6341 days where the sp was open — on 1303 of those days, sp closed at 20-day high.

535 of those days witnessed a decline in sp from a 20-day high 5 days ago, a highly bullish event.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Sep

28

Scale effects and full-scale ship hydrodynamics: A review

Scaling problems in ship design refer to the difficulties of translating performance data from a small-scale model to a full-scale ship, as physical forces like viscosity and wave drag do not scale proportionally with size.

Crypto space here? Trading strategies that work in niche mkts or early on, may not work when they are larger /more mature etc.

Henry Gifford writes:

The problems with water include the size of water droplets – they won’t form larger than a certain size – and Reynolds Number, which has to do with viscosity (mentioned below), and how to calculate it. Basically, a certain flow velocity in a small pipe (or river) will be turbulent, while in a larger pipe it might not.

Movies that use models of ships to show dramatic events with ships always show water droplets that are way, way too large, making it obvious to those who notice that they are looking at a model.

Nils Poertner responds:

Makes a lot of sense, Henry, thanks! (Equity sell-side analysts love to scale things (to the point it makes no sense anymore). Wile E. Coyote moment for NVDA et al coming soon perhaps.

Stefan Jovanovich predicts:

Grok - our FO's new member (he/she/it works for free like Harry Potter's Dobby) - thinks the moment will be 2031-32. [Click on chart at right.] We take the current AI events as a direct comparison to the creation of U.S. Steel.

Sep

27

what is the evidence that an increase in output, e.g., gdp, is bear for sp? (aside from ignoramos at fed)

[as of Friday, 26 Sept] it's been 5 days since last all-time high on sep 21 at 2712.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Sep

26

The Curta is a very clever counting device as demonstrated in this video.

It was invented by Curt Herzstark.

In 1943, perhaps influenced by the fact that his father was a liberal Jew, the Nazis arrested him for "helping Jews and subversive elements" and "indecent contacts with Aryan women" and sent him to the Buchenwald concentration camp. However, the reports of the army about the precision-production of the firm and especially about the technical expertise of Herzstark led the Nazis to treat him as an "intelligence-slave".

Inevitably, one comes back around to the abacus:

Learning how to calculate with the abacus may improve capacity for mental calculation. Abacus-based mental calculation (AMC), which was derived from the abacus, is the act of performing calculations, including addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division, in the mind by manipulating an imagined abacus. It is a high-level cognitive skill that runs calculations with an effective algorithm. People doing long-term AMC training show higher numerical memory capacity and experience more effectively connected neural pathways. They are able to retrieve memory to deal with complex processes. AMC involves both visuospatial and visuomotor processing that generate the visual abacus and move the imaginary beads. Since it only requires that the final position of beads be remembered, it takes less memory and less computation time.

Sep

25

A Year in the Maine Woods insights: "whenever i have an idea, i must act on it as soon as possible. conditions are never ideal, and if one waits long enough for ideal conditions, then the hypothesis slips away."

"Of all the animals that migrate, we are surely among the most restless. But humans retain the influence of the geophysical habitat in which they pass their formative years. And often, it seems we are drawn back to our childhood homes, if not physically then mentally; it not out of love, then out of curiosity; if not by necessity, then by desire."

you often get more insights from nature about markets than from markets themselves.

[Below from the Author's Note - Ed.]

By the time I was ten years old, I had lived for six years as a refugee in a northern German forest. My family survived on very little. But I had a lot — I had a pet crow, and I could collect beetles. Sometimes lately I have begun to wonder if it is still possible to taste the world up close as I did as a child. I long to see nature again as I did then — fresh, clear, timeless, and shrouded in magic. Would it be possible to rediscover the vividness that I now experience only as brief, tantalizing flashbacks?

Vic's X/twitter feed

Sep

23

health care costs, our Achilles heel.

Health Insurance Costs for Businesses to Rise by Most in 15 Years
Insurers say that the rising premiums are driven by growing healthcare costs

(on a personal note: no-one is really fully healthy, not even kids normally! science uses a lot of Aristotelian logic (which is an either/or logic) but there are limits to it - and we take it way beyond its usefulness. Nature does not have those clear mental compartments - it is way more fluid /dynamic).

Steve Ellison writes:

Until the public announcement that Warren Buffett had bought shares in UnitedHealth, health care was by far the worst performing of the 11 S&P 500 sectors in 2025.

Nils Poertner responds:

Yes, the whole sector / subindex looks bullish (XLV). (the type of logic in the West (logic from Aristoteles) that dominates MODERN SCIENCE cripples our society. Why? Because in many cases, whatever the doctor says, "it is not" - it is only an image of something abstract (like the apple painting by Rene Magritte).

Pamela Van Giessen comments:

We overconsume healthcare because we pay so much for insurance and/or our employers give it to us in lieu of salary so we want to get all we can for “free.” We’ve been conditioned to believe that if we visit doctors (though now we see PAs) and get “check ups” and “tests” regularly and take pills to manage our bodies and minds in perpetuity that we won’t get seriously ill. Has got to be the biggest subscription scam ever perpetuated on a society.

Perhaps some spec would like to pull out the data and do some forensic financial analysis of all those hospital system balance sheets. I think that fully 1/3rd or more of hospital systems are owned by private equity firms and the bulk of non-profit hospital systems are extracting meaningful sums from the business regardless of how “healthy” their margins look on their financial statements. From an equity perspective the biz may have looked lousy but I can promise that it is extraordinarily profitable for the inside players.

Jeffrey Hirsch adds:

Not only is it a total scam, but it gets in the way of real needed pharmaceutical/medical care and completely ignores metabolic healthcare via lifestyle and diet changes.

Too bad RFK is all wrapped up in his vaccine crusade to focus on the real USA health crisis with obesity and metabolic health, which causes diabetes, heart disease, cancer and cognitive decline. I think the covid vax is total BS as are others. But MMR and most childhood vaccines save lives. We had a measles outbreak in Rockland County a few years back because some communities did not vaccinate.

We should also flip the old USDA Food upside down. The chart is from my Doc’s paper. And my doc's site is Dr. Tro Kalayjian).

Sep

22

Holtec is thinking about restarting the Indian Point Nuclear Power Station. It is located on the Hudson River, about 30 miles north of Manhattan.

Holtec eyes restarting another nuclear plant – this time in New York

Although the company has not made any major moves yet, Holtec International is eyeing the restart of the Indian Point Energy Center in New Jersey, a 2,000 MW nuclear plant that ceased operations in 2021 and is currently being decommissioned.

Several groups will likely oppose Indian Point. Several others will be in favor.

Sep

19

This is a bit disturbing: According to classic Dow Theory, the Transports have not confirmed any new highs in the Industrials since November 25, 2024. If fewer goods are moving, is the economy really growing?

Sep

17

Questions on FOMC day

September 17, 2025 | Leave a Comment

what can chair Powell do today that will help his job prospects and also aid the long term interests of the agrarian reformers?

what are price ranges that are bulish and bearish for individual companies?

"if you keep me or stop the relentless pressure on me to be fired, i have two more reductions in my term for you."

JT responds:

Sounds similar to a Wimpy negotiation: “I’ll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.”

Vic's X/twitter feed

Sep

17

Equilibrium

September 17, 2025 | Leave a Comment

the antelope and its predators after an arms race lasting thousands of years reach an equilibrium with antelope going about 60 miles an hour. how is this related to the sp versus the bonds or the top performing stocks in a year versus the average?

Vic's X/twitter feed

Sep

16

Happy Yeltsin Supermarket Day

Thirty-five years ago today, Boris Yeltsin, then a newly elected member of the Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union, visited NASA’s Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas, where he toured the US government facility and the various technologies therein. But it was a brief, impromptu visit to a nearby grocery store that may well have changed world history.

Yeltsin, who’d two years later become the first freely elected leader of Russia, roamed the aisles of the relatively small Randall’s market that day and was astonished at the variety and affordability of the products on display. According to various reports, this visit — not the one to NASA — catalyzed Yeltsin’s exit from the Communist Party and his abandonment of the Soviet economic model.

Stefan Jovanovich comments:

The supermarket is innocent.

When Yeltsin visited the Johnson Space Center in September, it was two months after he had announced Soviet withdrawals of its Red Army garrisons from East Germany, Hungary, Poland and Czechoslovakia. Boris Yeltsin was first elected to office in the Soviet Union on March 26, 1989, as a deputy to the Congress of People's Deputies of the Soviet Union, representing Moscow’s 1st District. He won 89.6% of the vote (5,118,745 votes) in a multi-candidate election, defeating Yevgeny Brakov, a pro-CPSU candidate. The CPD was the equivalent of what the members of the more numerous branches of the State legislatures were in the 19th century; they elected members of the Supreme Soviet just as American State legislatures elected members of the U.S. Senate. He became the first President of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (RSFSR) on May 29, 1990. The CPSU’s assets were seized, and its activities were suspended. A successor party, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF), was formed on February 14, 1993, led by Gennady Zyuganov. The CPRF is an active political party in Russia, participating in elections and holding seats in the State Duma. As of the September 8, 2024, regional elections, the CPRF holds 57 seats in the State Duma (out of 450).

Sep

15

An interesting quick video about our number sense, and I can't help but wonder how it affects markets and trading.

And here is more on where number words and numerals come from.

Sep

13

yet another all-time hi in s&p. since 2011 there have been 857 20-day highs and 2925 not highs. this one preceded as is typical by a big move up in fixed income prices — Dimson and Lorie remain supreme.

advice to a young son from an 80+ old father who have been thru Heaven and Hades.

1. be humble.
2. follow drift upward in stocks.
3. learn and practice 5 martial arts.
4. Keep moving, e.g., running.
5. Marry a girl who you are harmonious with.
6. don't get in over your head.
7. your family is your major and perhaps only loyal support you can count on.
8. wear a hat.
9. always be learning. listen and learn.
10. stay away from hoodoos.
11. eat fish in high proportion to meat.
12. get a CEA test before colonoscopy.
13. read good books often. my faves are: Don Quixote, The Time It Never Rained, nature books from Bernd Heinrich, like Why We Run.
14. count whenever you can. read the autobio of Francis Galton or Pearson's bio of him.
15. Be courageous.
16. Find a good mentor. Ming is a good one.

9a: follow the head in your brain not the one in your balls.
9b: always learn.
9b: stay away from hoodoos: try to inculcate friends and mentors who are productive and positive.
9c: eat a higher proportion of fish to meat: Ming and your mothers are good mentors.

17. Try not to initiate or be sued. Lawyers the most untrustworthy professional. accountants are most trustworthy. Thus one of your mentors should be an accountant.
18. Spend as much time loving and building a young one up (say under 6).
19. Be receptive to and build life-time relations with an Asian Girl.

20. listen to and try to play great music.
21. enjoy and seek out great art. my favs and Hudson River art and N.C Wyeth.

17c: find a good doctor and accountant.
17d: try to settle all your disputes: lawyers and courts are too expansive and uncertain.
17e: keep moving especially running.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Sep

11

Gappy (Giuseppe Paleologo) posted this on X, and it prompted me to wonder if a power law would apply to the skill differences and win rates of tennis players viz their rankings. Need to find some easily accessible data for that. And of course, how PLs apply to the distribution of returns with the S&P 500 in a given time period. But could it be predictive?

Power Laws in Economics and Finance
Xavier Gabaix, Stern School, NYU

A power law (PL) is the form taken by a large number of surprising empirical regularities in economics and finance. This review surveys well-documented empirical PLs regarding income and wealth, the size of cities and firms, stock market returns, trading volume, international trade, and executive pay. It reviews detail-independent theoretical motivations that make sharp predictions concerning the existence and coefficients of PLs, without requiring delicate tuning of model parameters. These theoretical mechanisms include random growth, optimization, and the economics of superstars, coupled with extreme value theory. Some empirical regularities currently lack an appropriate explanation. This article highlights these open areas for future research.

Asindu Drileba writes:

One of the funniest commodities traded in Uganda (my country) is Vanilla. The price fell from, $156 per kilo, to $1.14 per kilo. A -99% drop during the 2020 covid lock down.

Vanilla cultivation is special in that it can't be farmed mechanically.

- It only flowers once a year
- The flower is only open for 24 hours in one year
- It can only be hand pollinated
- If you miss those 24 hours in one year, your done, wait for the next season.

So a lot of the cultivation is by small "artisanal" farmers.

Madagascar produces close to 80% of the world's vanilla. All other countries produce the rest. So its a power law distribution. The smallest hiccup in Madagascar can cause the vanilla price to skyrocket or drop.

I think power laws outside prices (like supply chains of vanilla) can be used to predict what asset, commodity or instrument will be volatile (large moves both up & down). I think these underlying setups in assets are what echo as power law distributions into prices.

Sep

10

Finally another ATH

September 10, 2025 | Leave a Comment

finally another all time high at 6530. this one grew lateral branches in the 6400 handle.

Vic's twitter feed

Sep

9

Advice

September 9, 2025 | Leave a Comment

Advice of Polonious to Laertes:

And, as well as that, remember these few principles – take note. Don’t let your thoughts be known, or any inappropriate act be done. Be friendly with people but respectable, not common and vulgar. Tie your closest and truest friends to your soul with steel chains, but don’t just let any stranger be one of your close friends. Be wary about entering into a fight, but if you do end up in one, "bear’t that the opposed may beware of thee".

Compared to Don Quixote's advice to Sancho Panza:

Advice focusing on both character and behavior, urging him to take pride in his humble lineage, pursue virtue, and show compassion as a ruler. He also provides practical, albeit peculiar, etiquette tips, like walking slowly, eating moderately, speaking deliberately, and refraining from eating garlic or onions and excessive drinking or belching. The goal is for Sancho to act as a wise and virtuous governor, not ashamed of his origins, but instead using his intelligence and mercy to rule his island justly.

Advice on Character and Rule

Embrace your Humble Origins: Do not be ashamed of your peasant lineage; instead, take pride in your humility and the virtue you acquire.

Cultivate Virtue: Strive for virtuous actions, as they are more valuable than inherited bloodlines or material wealth.

Show Compassion and Leniency: Treat criminals with mercy and compassion, remembering that God values mercy.

Be Wise and Grateful: Fear God, for wisdom comes from Him, and be grateful for the good fortune of your governorship.

Be a Good Family Man: Welcome and honor any relatives who visit your island.

Advice on Conduct and Etiquette

Walk and Speak Deliberately: Stroll at a measured pace and speak thoughtfully, avoiding all affectation.

Eat and Drink Sparingly: Consume small amounts for lunch and even less for supper, and drink temperately, as too much wine can betray secrets and promises.

Practice Good Manners: Refrain from eating with food in both cheeks and from belching in company.

Be Clean: Ensure you are clean and have your fingernails clipped.

Avoid Garlic and Onions: Do not eat garlic or onions so that your low birth cannot be detected by your smell.

Don't Over-Proverbialize: Do not use too many proverbs, as they can be tiresome to others.

In essence, Don Quixote wants Sancho to use these teachings to become a just, humble, and virtuous leader who is grounded in his origins but elevated by his character and good conduct.

Vic's twitter feed

Sep

8

Dutch scientist Christiaan Huygens found in the 17th century that larger pendulum clocks will sync smaller ones.

Video by Veritasium: The Surprising Secret of Synchronization

Pendulums in the human world = our various belief systems (which are sometimes in competition to each other and go deep). Two examples perhaps: in finance: a trader has religious reasons why he /she does not think he deserves the STELLAR gains. Ways are found to turn accumulated gains into a loss! in health: why do some ppl stay sick and others recover miraculously against all odds?

Zubin Al Genubi writes:

The Kuramoto mathematical model describes synchrony in networks. The line between order and randomness occurs at the phase transition when the network nodes synchronize.

Building on Kuramoto's model, the Watts and Strogatz model makes testable predictions about interventions most likely to trigger cascades.

In small world network terms there are "vulnerable clusters" in the market. In market terms the vulnerable clusters are weak hands, funds faced with margin calls, or fund hitting a stop losses. Obvious 2d points or tipping points are stop points at prior lows. If a vulnerable cluster is close to the second tipping point, it can ignite a cascade.

Nils Poertner responds:

Mathematicians often find something which ordinary people know intuitively. 2 more examples:

1. Five teenagers bully a victim. Knock-out the strongest in the group and the rest will fall too (big bully was the dominant pendulum, trumping the small ones).

2. When the most valuable firm(s) in an index suddenly struggle (NVDA?), it often means bad things for wider index.

Asindu Drileba adds:

I found the same pattern in the "Complex Systems" community. An example in Secrets of Professional Turf Betting: The idea of "copper the public opinion" & "principle of ever changing cycles" are an intuitive description of the minority game & El farol Bar problem in complex systems. Statistical arbitrage is almost exactly what Robert Bacon describes as a "dutch book."

In Neil Johnson's Simply Complexity, he derives an insight that currency traders have (knowing what currency is "in play") using graph theory.

I think Simply Complexity is a very good book for speculators, since it uses accessible analogies and no complicated math. The book has a lot of analogies regarding the market. The most relevant section for Specs would be, Chapter 4: Mob Mentality (I however enjoyed the entire book).

A Few excerpts:

The bar-goers who tend to shift opinions about whether to go with history or against it, tend to lose more and hence eventually change their p value.

This reminded me of people that both go short & long in the market (I am long only). P is the probability of an event happening.

Figure 4.3 from the book and its caption:

We are naturally divided. The final arrangement of a collection of people, in the case of a bar where the comfort limit is around half the number of potential attendees. This shows the emergent phenomenon of a crowd who think that history repeats itself, and an anticrowd who think that the opposite will happen. Hence the population polarizes itself into two opposing groups. This polarization of the population represents a universal emergent phenomenon. It will arise to a greater or lesser extent in any Complex System involving collections of decision-making objects such as people, which are competing for some form of limited resource.

The figure is similar to the Arc Sin law of PnL. Something that appears in Ralph Vince's book The Mathematics of Money Management and Nassim Taleb's Dynamic Hedging. Unfortunately, I don't have a good intuition on the Arc Sin law of PnL.

Sep

7

Menahem Pressler played this concert in his 95th year:

Mozart: Piano Concerto No. 23 | Menahem Pressler, Gulbenkian Orchestra & Leo Hussain

Adam Grimes responds:

Thank you. That's lovely. Mozart always requires such precision. That was the second concerto I learned! Near and dear to my heart.

Laurel Kenner writes:

A very great concerto, a very great pianist.

Even monsters have been touched by this haunting music. A vignette re Mozart’s K488 and Stalin, from LA Phil program notes:

In his final years Stalin became addicted to listening to music on the radio, on one occasion a performance of Mozart’s K. 488, played by Maria Yudina, a particular favorite of his – surprisingly, since she was as celebrated for her non-conforming political views as for her interpretations of Shostakovich (of whom she was a close friend), Bach, and Mozart. Instead of playing encores at her recitals, she would read poems by banned Russian writers and recite the sayings of Russian Orthodox clerics: rather than hiding her beliefs, she trumpeted them, so to speak.

Stalin asked Moscow Radio for a copy of Yudina’s K. 488 and they agreed to send it immediately. The problem was that this was a live performance and it had not been recorded. The radio people called Yudina and hastily assembled an orchestra late that night, delivering the recording to Stalin the following day. Volkov relates Shostakovich’s words: “Soon after [Stalin heard the recording] Yudina received an envelope with 20,000 rubles… To which she responded: ‘I thank you, Joseph Vissarionovich… I will pray for you day and night and that the Lord forgive you your great sins…’” The pianist is said to have donated the 20,000 rubles to her church.

Oddly, Yudina was never censured nor imprisoned for any of her renegade acts and her career continued until shortly before her death in 1970. “They [who?] say [according to Shostakovich/Volkov] that her recording of the Mozart concerto was on the record player when the leader was found dead in his dacha [in 1953]. It was the last thing he had listened to.”

Whether one believes all, parts, or none of the story, Yudina did make the recording.

Like Adam, I also played this concerto, written by Mozart at 30. Perhaps you need to be 95 to do it justice. Bravo, Menahem Pressler.

[ One from a list of her performances: Maria Yudina plays Bach Toccata in C minor, BWV 911 - live 1950 -Ed. ]

Laurel Kenner adds:

Yudina's Chromatic Fantasy & Fugue is killer.

Sep

6

The greatest single success of the Japanese Army in WW 2 - the capture of Singapore - came directly from the use of bicycles as the primary means of troop transport.

From the Army and Navy Journal of 1896
BICYCLE “CORPS,” 25TH Inf
2d Lieut. James A. Moss, U.S.A., Commanding

The Bicycle Corps of the 25th. U.S. Inf., under the command of 2d Lieut. James. A. Moss, appears to have had a very successful, but very fatiguing, trial in their recent expedition from Fort Missoula, Mont., to test the bicycle for military purposes.

The corps left Fort Missoula Aug. 15 with rations, rifles, cooking utensils, shelter tents, ammunition, extra bicycle parts, repair material, etc., etc. They reached Fort Harrison on the 17th, having covered 132 miles in 22 hours of actual travel. They got new rations at Harrison and left for Yellowstone at noon Aug. 19, reaching Mammoth Springs, Wyo., at 1:30 Aug. 23. The distance of 101 miles was made in 31 hours of actual traveling. So far they had traveled in 53 hours of actual traveling, 323 miles of the hilliest and rockiest roads in the United States, fording streams, going through sand, mud, over road ruts, etc. Every day, except only one, they had wind against them. Aug. 25 the corps left for a days’ trip through the park.

When they left Fort Missoula, their lightest wheel [i.e., bicycle] packed, weighed 64 pounds, the heaviest 84 pounds, an average of 77½ pounds; the lightest wheel with rider, weighed 205 pounds, the heaviest, 272 pounds. The wheel used was the 26-pound Spalding bicycle, geared to 66½. The weights of the members of Bicycle Corps were as follows: Lieut. Moss, 135 pounds; Corp. Williams, 153½; Musician Brown, 145½; Pvt. Proctor, 152; Pvt. Findley, 183½; Pvt. Foreman, 160; Pvt. Haynes, 160; Pvt. Johnson, 151½.

Previous to making this trip, Lieut. Moss made a preliminary excursion to Lake McDonald, leaving Fort Missoula at 6:20 A.M., Aug. 6 and reaching there on return at 1:30 P.M., Aug. 9, having ridden and walked 126 miles in 24 hours of actual traveling under most adverse circumstances. They were delayed quite a number of times in tightening nuts, adjusting handle bars, etc. The wheels were not spared in the least, and did the work extraordinarily well. On their trip the men found the roads muddy from recent rain, and were impeded by the clay-mud sticking to the tires of their bicycles. They had to dismount frequently to scale heights, and over six miles of road they dismounted twenty times on account of mud puddles and fallen trees. While crossing Finley Creek on wheels two men fell in the stream. Part of the journey was made in a driving rain, which covered the wheels with mud and filled the shoes of the riders with water, making it difficult for them to keep their feet. on the muddy pedals. [Another creek] was forded through three feet of swift water, each wheel being carried across on a pole suspended from the shoulders of two soldiers. "Had the devil himself," says Lieut. Moss, “conspired against us, we would have had little more to contend with.”

The party attracted great attention along the way from the inhabitants, and their dogs and cattle. Dogs ran after them, cattle away from. them, and residents stopped work and stood in open-mouthed wonder as they passed. Every once in a while they would strike an Indian cabin and the dogs barking would announce their approach, while the occupants would stand in the door and gaze at them. Every other soldier carried a complete Spalding repair kit. The large tin [water] case (carrying about 11 gallons) was attached to the front of bicycles on a frame and strapped to the handle bars. The men wore the heavy marching uniform, and every other soldier was armed with a rifle and 30 rounds ammunition. The rifles were strapped horizontally on the top side of the side of the bicycles with the bolt on top. Those not so armed carried revolvers on belt with 30 cartridges.

Big Al adds:

More detail:

The Twenty-Fifth Infantry Bicycle Corps

On June 12, 1894, James A. Moss graduated from the United States Military Academy at West Point. Moss was assigned to the all-Black Twenty-Fifth Infantry, headquartered at Fort Missoula, Montana. It was one of four all-Black regiments in the Army at the time, nicknamed the Buffalo Soldiers.

Sep

4

I have always been an anglophile and sometimes think I have a better grasp of British history than American. Lately, I have been approaching US history through biographies, and any such approach must include a biography of Andrew Jackson. I am currently listening to this one:

American Lion: Andrew Jackson in the White House

I have also been watching and thoroughly enjoying Ken Burns' bio of Benjamin Franklin.

I missed this when it was broadcast in 2022 and am just now watching it. I thought of Spec List when the documentary got to the point where Franklin and friends founded The Leather Apron Club, also known as the Junto.

Sep

3

last 20 emini prices varying between high 6300 and low 6500 with last 14 of 20 closes in 6400 handle. another 20-day hi due soon.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Sep

3

I post these wondering what Carder D thinks:

Big Tech’s A.I. Data Centers Are Driving Up Electricity Bills for Everyone
Electricity rates for individuals and small businesses could rise
sharply as Amazon, Google, Microsoft and other technology companies
build data centers and expand into the energy business.
14 August, 2025

AI Boom Reshapes Power Landscape as Data Centers Drive Historic Demand Growth
Monday, March 3, 2025

The power industry was once considered slow-moving and perhaps even boring. That is no longer the case as technology has expanded and power demand projections skyrocket. New reports released by analysts at Enverus and Deloitte are examined to provide insight on what’s likely to evolve in the power industry over the coming year and beyond.

Carder Dimitroff responds:

I believe these articles present several issues that could benefit investors:

1) Transformers (not pole transformers). The queue for new transformers is long, and about half are manufactured offshore. Data centers need transformers as do new power sources.

2) Gas turbines. Same situation as transformers. For efficient turbines, the queue is about 5 years.

3) Solar panels. Those who previously invested in solar will see their ROIs grow faster than they expected.

4) Retail consumers. They will see their gas and electric utility bills grow as they pay for higher costs of energy and subsidize infrastructure costs to support new loads.

5) New manufacturing. Several geographical options will present better opportunities than others, as the cost of power is regional and seasonal.

6) Forget new nuclear as a near-term solution.

Asindu Drileba asks:

What do you think about nuclear fusion? Is it really close? The joke is that nuclear fusion has always been ready in 5 years for many decades. But I recently heard Chris Sacca (one of the best VCs ever, made over 250x for his entire fund), mention it is genuinely close and that his new fund, Lower Carbon existing partly to capture the incoming advancements in nuclear fusion.

Carder Dimitroff replies:

Today, nuclear fusion is a science project. Keep in mind that fusion requires operating temperatures of over 100 million degrees (at this level, the distinction between Fahrenheit and Celsius is irrelevant). Producing bulk power from this technology is more than ten years away. At these temperatures, it's unlikely they will be operating near population centers.

Sep

1

From the Sports Illustrated vault:

The Squabbler of the Squash Courts
Vic Niederhoffer brought a touch of Brooklyn rowdiness to Harvard and a traditionally genteel game

The progress of Victor B. Niederhoffer, Harvard '64, among American squash players has surprised a lot of people, but not Vic Niederhoffer. Beaten only once in the past two years as No. 1 on Harvard's undefeated squash team and the winner of three major squash championships this year, Niederhoffer thinks he is unbeatable and clamors loudly for justice when his shots go awry. Consequently, on those rare occasions when he loses a tournament, squash lovers are delighted. Niederhoffer could not care less. "He's the Ty Cobb of squash," says his coach at Harvard, Jack Barnaby. "He'd chew glass to win. Nothing matters but victory."

Racket guy from Brooklyn
But Vic Niederhoffer doesn't use dem or dose. The five-time U.S. champ has a Ph. D., a million-dollar business and wears a tux—with track shoes

To the victor — Victor Niederhoffer, that is — belongs another silver pitcher. Last week in New York, at 31, he won the U.S. National Singles Squash Racquets championship for the fifth time. His opponents did little but gasp, sweat and run. But Niederhoffer seemed to play effortlessly. His shots were not always brilliant, but he patiently waited out long rallies, and his frustrated opponents consistently found themselves in situations where most of their moves were of high risk. And then they were forced to make mistakes which ruined them.

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