Mar

29

Always be there

March 29, 2022 | Leave a Comment

nobody asked me but I find it very heroic that Will Smith defended the honor and life force of his wife. My parents almost did the same things for me. My principal in high school, an Abraham Lass, had a grudge against me. he was in partnership with a math teacher in a tutoring service. his wife hated my family because my mother was very attractive and her husband the math teacher admired her. the principal kidnapped me after school and took me to his house.

next day Artie and Miltie, two tough cops written about in The Gang, came in uniform with their guns to the office of the principal. There was no violence. Indeed the principal tried his utmost to preclude my getting into Harvard. But my father was always there for me in every way.

a similar instance is described in Elmer Kelton's memories of his father. the father was a great cowboy and was somewhat disappointed with Elmer because he went to Univ Of Texas to be a writer. the father took Elmer to the bus stop and told him he would always be there for him.

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Mar

28

Go sit in the bushes on the east side of the track along Beal Road. One train pauses daily here to let another pass or to change crew. The once-a-day is an average, is random, and the train rests for 10-15 minutes to allow boarding. Board toward the rear of the train to avoid the engineer’s glance, and choose a car with shade. In minutes, the train whistle sounds highball and you’re on the ride of your life.

These are the steps of each of my hundreds of freight rides, and of yours:

CATCH OUT: Where the hobo hops a freight.

FRISK THE DRAG: The drag is the string of cars behind the locomotives that you walk to pick a car.

BULLS: There are no RR bulls in Niland. As long as you’re not spotted by the engineer boarding it’s cool. Even then, he’ll likely look the other way.

THE RIDE: A freight train is a string of steel elephants that carry you across the country. It’s a notch above hitchhiking, faster than Greyhound, and you don’t need no ticket to ride.

AMERICAN DREAM: Congratulations, you’re living the American Dream!

ARRIVAL: Your arrival is the starting point of another ride. It doesn’t matter where you end up, because the journey is the destination.

A southbound freight out of Niland takes you three hours to Yuma which is an easy crew-change yard to catch out of. There’s a mission there. A northbound freight from Niland takes you to San Bernardino Colton Yard that is also an easy catchout for points east to Las Vegas or north to Portland.

Disclaimer: Freight hopping is illegal, this is not intended as an urge to freedom, and thousands are out there now on the iron road.

Mar

27

Larry Williams & Victor talk bonds, trading tips, cycles, market momentum, emotions & more:

Recession & bear market or bull & drift continues? 03/24/2022

Mar

27

after stocks up 11 of the last 12 days, 4 of 5 20-day highs in row, with bonds down 9 of 11 full pts in the last 2 weeks, one loses his confidence in the forces of nature ineluctably moving to new highs in S&P — at least temporarily. it all depends on how progressive the trophies and of course how effective and blatant the rapid response team is in augmenting their man.

one notes that the movie the Good Old Boys has credits for 50 actors and technicians for the movie but doesn't mention once that the author was Elmer Kelton. even in [1995], the studios were ashamed of someone who loved the west.

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Mar

23

one of the worst and most loathsome audibles i've ever listened to - and I listen to one every nite - is Paul Ford's Lord Knows, At Least I Was There: Working with Stephen Sondheim. the one good thing in it, beside all the times he traded sex for a discount on a record or two, was that Sondheim gave him piano lessons and taught him how to play a rubato. it's a temporary quickening in the pace of a piece without changing the timing of the whole piece. How many time do you see a rubato in the market?

Sondheim liked to lean into his piano to create rubato, e.g., in Sweeney Todd when talking about his razor. strangely Sondheim planned to be a Mathematician and majored in it at Williams. Strangely I used rubato in all my racquet sports to gain an advantage.

I played Joe racquetball at the central park courts shortly before I had my stroke. To his credit he beat me which is very hard since I won the racquetball nationals in 1976 , but what Joe didn't know is that I played him with my opposite hand, Lefty.

That brings to mind all the great times and lessons learned with Marty Riesman. Marty loved hustling almost as much as he loved his microscopes. some of the players at Miles's ping pong emporium told me that they waited to play Riesman at the end of the nite and always walked away with all his money which he held loose from his Chinese restaurant. When I first played him i played with my left and took some cash from him. but I took him that evening to Le Bernadine with Herb London.

Gilbert Le Coz the cofoundner with his sister joined us that nite and was fascinated by Marty's stories and Herb London's take on reducing NY taxes. The next day Gilbert worked out in the gym and passed away from a heart attack.

as lagniappe, a little story: I can always get a reservation at Le Bernadin and they treat me as an important dignitary. Its not because they think I'm important - I lost my luster 48 years ago - but my brother fortuitously bought Bitcoin when it was $5 sine 29 years ago. Not having any loose bucks he reached into his pocket and gave a handful of bitcoins to Ben the maître d' for 29 years. "Keep it," my brother said, "someday it may be worth something." now that the coins have appreciated some 800,000%, i shine in reflected glory and am remembered, as I look like my brother.

One more thing: talking of Sondheim's rubato, i find deep poignancy and yes love in this song. For some 50 years through many a rubato and vicissitude, one woman has been my friend, lover and now caretaker. It's Susan, my wife. Here's the song that I still think of her as.

The best version how I feel. and I correct: It's only been 46 years.

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Mar

22

it is useful and enlightening to contemplate the tangled bank of the markets with one going up, the other down, with oil reaching new highs and bonds hitting new lows, and to reflect that these elaborately related forms so different from each other but the various interactions are dependent upon each other in a complex fashion especially when Jay Powell, Janet Yellen or 46 speaks have all been designed to deceive us and create vig.

one general law that subsumes all the fluctuations in markets is the rejection of events injurious to the stock market and survival of the quest for new highs, and other related forms and markets. which we may call survival of the strongest.

Darwin put it best: "Keep steadily in mind that each being is striving to increase, that each at some period of its struggle for life, suffers great destruction. The war of nature is not incessant. The vigorous, the healthy, and the happy survive and multiply."

I heartily recommend Brian Cox, Wonders of Life: Exploring the Most Extraordinary Phenomenon in the Universe for all kids, market people and those who wish to learn of the connections of biology, chemistry and physics to all things. Reading this book gave me the idea that Darwin's tangled bank and struggle for existence explains the Dimsonian 10000 fold a century expansion, and much of the Professors work.

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Mar

20

Nobody asked me but…Nock describes the situation at the Wigwam in 1890. a ballot harvester would come to you and say, "Look at the jobs i've got for you and your family through Tammany and such. Now while you're out of commission, would you mind if I place your vote for you?"

one has been thinking about 10 ways show that you are agrarian. 1) Whisper you advice like all, the whisperers. 2) wear a mask especially when outside biking or alone in the outdoors. 3) go to restaurants as your chosen form of entertainment.

4) mention Greta Thunberg with reverence. 5) Be sure to prevent your kids from reading Tom Sawyer or anything else from Mark Twain. 6) Make sure you put the pronouns his/her in your bio. 7) Wear a beard and smoke pot.

9) Have NPR and other public radio stations on at all times. 10) Listen to all the Sondheim interviews. come away from it thinking that Passion Play, Assassins and Hamilton are the greatest musicals of our time, that Hammerstein things like South Pacific, Oklahoma, King and I are dated.

most important of all to show you are truly a fellow traveler: applaud the Trophies that Power of Dog gets.

Be sure to say that value investing beats growth and say that your favorite investment books are written by the Sage or Charlie Munger. if you mention Ed Spec positively, emphasize that your favorite investment book by far is Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

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Mar

20

How does Jevon's paradox play into the current situation with commodities?

Oil demand holds up in Norway, despite record electric car sales
In September, electric cars reached a record 77.5% share of new car sales in Norway. Yet, surprisingly, oil demand is higher than ten years ago when the first zero-emission cars were sold in the country. (UBS Editorial Team, 08 Dec 2021)

Zubin Al Genubi laments:

It's like my garage storage and my budget, demand grows to meet supply. Also despite efficiency the same energy created is used.

Big Al adds:

The road-congestion version:

The Fundamental Law of Road Congestion: Evidence from US Cities
Gilles Duranton and Matthew A. Turner
AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOL. 101, NO. 6, OCTOBER 2011

Abstract
We investigate the effect of lane kilometers of roads on vehicle-kilometers traveled (VKT) in US cities. VKT increases proportionately to roadway lane kilometers for interstate highways and probably slightly less rapidly for other types of roads. The sources for this extra VKT are increases in driving by current residents, increases in commercial traffic, and migration. Increasing lane kilometers for one type of road diverts little traffic from other types of road. We find no evidence that the provision of public transportation affects VKT. We conclude that increased provision of roads or public transit is unlikely to relieve congestion.

See also induced demand.

Stefan Jovanovich comments:

There is no marginal cost of entry into the "system" of free roads. The only way that public transit can begin to compete with highways is for their cost of entry - i.e. the fares - to also be zero. I had one great professor at what was otherwise a mediocre school - what Harvard then called Architectural Sciences - who taught this. I can still remember his lectures and one in particular - when he explained how he had been unable to convince the Indonesian government that the solution to their particular traffic problem was to fix the phone system. It was so unreliable that even in what was still a poor country the streets in Jakarta would be jammed by merchants and others getting in their cars so they could talk to one another in person.

See also bid-rent theory.

Big Al adds:

You'd think that policy would be a natural, especially for "progressive" regimes, given that public transport fares must skew towards a tax on the bottom deciles.

Mar

20

the best advice about markets comes from the New York Post sports section. In a bet-smart piece, the action network staff states, "bettors need to fight the urge." they give four tips on fighting the urge that are more helpful than anything in the financial markets.

True, these four guidelines are all in the Secrets of Professinal Turf Betting, by Robert Bacon, but they're timeless and easy to understand when put in the midst of sports betting.

(1) "We encourage bettors to embrace a flat betting style. Bet the same amount on every game." as Bacon puts it: "beware of the switches. the public bets 1 nickel on a 20-to-1 horse that wins then bets 100 on a favorite that loses."

(2) Don't overreact to recent trends, i.e if a tame has won bet against it, if it has lost, bet in favor of it.

(3) beware of gamblers fallacy. that's the belief that if something happens more often than normal in a period of time, it will happen less frequently in the future.

(4) don't bet on every game, betting 10 of 15 games a nite is dangerous One night can decimate you.

Other tips on playing the markets comes from an article about Coach K. He's going for the 1200th win. he's done it by changing his style with each team. most significant, he learned much from coaching the Olympics and seeing Kobe, Lebron play. he learned from them to embrace the one and done style.

of course there is one other significant thing in the news that is more important even than bacon's timeless advice: The prodigal son's laptop is now fair game. Its suppression in the past ie one of the 25 reasons that the whisperer squeaked a victory in 2020 and for sure the suppression of the prodigal son by big tech and big media including the wsj front page was one of them. just as important as ballot harvesting.

i could go on with 100 reasons that the grandeur of the markets is able to withstand the negativity that was and always is endemic at a bottom. it was only Monday that the marks was at lows. and now 10% higher. perhaps the posts 4 rules and rereading of bacon is in order.

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Mar

18

As we close a week with fantastic negativity on all sides - war, interest rate increases, agrarian reformers galore - and every market is up and we have increased about 10% from the lows of 4100 on Monday, March 14, it is good to reflect like Darwin: "There is grandeur in the inevitable forces of destiny which invariably lead to new highs, that the markets while cycling on according to the fixed laws of physics and chemistry, from such simple beginnings, endless forces most beautiful and wonderful."

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Mar

17

A beautiful story by L. Bershidsky. very bull I think:

My Grandmother Was in the Winter War. It Was as Ugly as This One
Ukraine and Finland have little in common and 21st-century warfighting is new and different. But the parallels are still hard to miss.

Ukrainian and Russian negotiators are reportedly getting closer to a deal that would end the Russian invasion. The deal, if and when it arrives, likely will resemble the Moscow Treaty of 1940, which crowned the Winter War between the Soviet Union and Finland. Ukraine will sign up to a version of Finland’s neutral status that resulted from that treaty, and some of its territorial losses will likely be sealed, if not recognized. Just as Finland did, however, Ukraine will keep its independence and its military, rather than become a Russian puppet state.

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Mar

16

'The Power of the Dog' Wins Best Picture At UK's BAFTAs

and terrible reflection on all the western writers who write about the heroic individuals who settled the west and served as a model for us in the 20th century.

just read an Elmer Kelton novel or better yet listen to Elmer Kelton about the time and place of the West and why the critics hate the adventurous indivualistic spirt of the West and the code of the west.

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Mar

15

i believe i have been asked to have an emergency youtube session-blog, but i would only say that tues is one of the most bullish days i've ever seen. including the fact that the fed doesn't like to do anything bear when it will add weakness to the S&P.

other things that are bull i've already mentioned, including payday and the mon-tues effect, and 500 pts and 70 days from an ATH, as well as the bonds down big. i sound like a broken record and I am as regretful of that because i have followed the multivariate time series — hasn't there been a dramatic decline in prices recently, eg crude down 25% from a week ago? will this have an impact on the fed decision or are they too concerned with the inequalities and injustices to notice?

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Mar

11

One-Minute Piano Lessons
Inflation-fighting practical tips for a lifetime of playing

A friend of mine used to joke that teaching piano is easy because it required only four words: Faster. Slower. Louder. Softer.

He exaggerated. Teachers devote years to impart artistry, theory, and history to their students. Yet much lesson time is spent on the humble practicalities like fingering, tone production, and overcoming technical difficulties.

In this book I present a collection of practical tricks, tips, and secrets from a lifetime of lessons, practice, and performance. Most take just a minute to read but will bear fruit as they are put into practice.

Laurence Glazier comments:

Nice. Very Leschetizky.

Laurel Kenner responds:

Thanks, Lawrence. Like so many other pianists, I studied with teachers whose teachers studied with Leschetizky.

Adam Grimes writes:

I read your book. I think it's very good. A few random points (some reinforcing, some maybe slightly contradicting):

- I struggled with poor technique for a long time, and I got by, but the thing that made a difference for me was realizing that there is exactly, precisely ONE ideal alignment of hand, wrist, and forearm for each finger. You can find it by pretending you are going to exert maximum pressure through a single, extended finger. (Like you are going to push a refrigerator or something, but don't actually do it!) It's not always possible to have that alignment for every note played, but knowing what it is and seeking it is the key to technique.

-I don't think there's much value to exercises in general. I did Hanon, Czerny, Dohnanyi (dangerous, imo) for years. Complete waste of time, at least for me. All the technique we need is in the literature. Everything needed to play Classic and before period music is in the Beethoven c minor variations… extract exercises from Chopin (not saying just play the Etudes… make exercises from the Waltzes, the Berceuse, from difficult passages in any piece.)

-Absolutely agree on pain being a big STOP signal. And, as for relaxation, this is often confused, but the key is you don't want to have antagonistic muscles activated at the same time. our brains can't tel a muscle to do anything specific, so we have to work through body motion.

-100% agree about piano being a percussion instrument, though with great capabilities to sing. Play Schubert to make the piano sing… then Chopin. I used to tell my students that legato on the piano was a lie… but it can be told as an utterly convincing lie. Listen to great violinists and singers to understand real legato.

-I would prioritize ear training. It's very hard to create something from the instrument that cannot be vividly experienced internally first.

-I have a very long list of practice techniques. Some of my favorites are rhythms, articulations, practicing fast stuff slow and super-expressively, and practicing small sections up to tempo asap.

-With the metronome, suggest using it on "large" beats. For instance, it's obvious a Chopin waltz you'd set the metronome on the dotted half. But consider the first fugue from the WTC… a good way to practice is with a metronome click ONLY on the downbeat… or maybe on 2 and 4. Doing this requires the player to internalize the pulse more than the typical use of metronome on every beat.

-The technique of slowly speeding up with a metronome only works if the player knows how to play fast… it fails with students because there is a speed wall. (Essentially, there's pretty much only one (or a very limited) way you can play a fast passage at tempo, but slowly? If you're playing slowly you can do ANYTHING!) So, I find that doing big jumps close to target tempo is effective. For instance: let's say the target is q=144 and you find the passage easy at 75. Play it 3X perfectly at 65. Then turn metronome up to 130 and try it. (Absolute disaster, of course.) Try it a few times at tempo, then go back to 70… then back to 130… then 72, etc. This is a way to bring the coordination from fast speeds back to slow practice. Your body gradually will find the right way to make it work.

-Another key to doing the slow speeding up thing (which i do sometimes… it's valuable in some situations) is to also practice back to a slower tempo. For instance, play a passage 3X at 62 (I won't use actual mm here just close), 3X 68, 3X 72,… etc 3x 132… which is your target tempo… but don't stop there! Now do 2X 120, 2x 100, 2X 80. Why? Because tension will inevitably arise as you are ratcheting the tempo… tension can become a learned part of a passage… taking the tempo back down allows you to learn relaxation also.

-Divide practice into small sessions. It's ideal if you can nap after a session.

-Most things won't be fixed today. Your brain will consolidate the work while you sleep. If you aren't dreaming about the work, you're probably not working hard enough. (Personal observation, maybe not true for all.)

-Check the volume in your practice room. I discovered mine was spiking 110+ dB! Permanent hearing damage is certainly possible with the piano.

Bo Keely suggests:

the weights should go on top the fingers, to eventually lighten the touch.

Laurence Glazier adds:

My first Leschetizky teacher, along with all the shaking of hands and relaxation, advised playing each note as if with the whole arm. It may seem strange. But I liked it. At the time I was studying ki aikido and it struck me that several exercises were in both.

I didn't take piano playing very far. Loved learning to play from jazz chord symbols.

The magic of music always finds a way to flourish. The development of jazz. The great songs of the Beatles, who did not know the notation. We need knowledge, but must not let it get in the way.

Mar

9

nothing personal but my debacle with puts on S&P was aided and abetted by the frequent increases in margins by the members with opposite positions. just one more day would have saved me. this is the reason that I havent sold puts for 15 years not the black swans.

it sounds exculpatory but as I approach 100 years old, people like to touch me for good luck, and the market markers in S&P puts had all the forces with them. Now you can touch me without sharing my shame. Yes, it's an alibi. but I took my medicine like a man. and those who still respect me should know this.

JPMorgan Bails Out Chinese Nickel Giant Facing Billions In Losses From Record Margin Call

According to the WSJ, Tsingshan’s founder, Xiang Guangda, told a Chinese media outlet that "there have been some moves by foreigners," and that it is in active negotiations with relevant parties, without specifying who they were and what was being negotiated.

Xiang was also quoted saying that "relevant government departments and leaders are all very supportive of Tsingshan. Tsingshan is a solid Chinese enterprise and our positions and operations do not have problems," according to the report in Yicai, a financial-news outlet.

Needless to say, the fact that the LME is now owned by Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, whose biggest shareholder is the Hong Kong government which for the past two years has been a puppet of China, did not hurt Xiang, whose empire would have been bankrupted had the LME forced him to make payment on his margin call. None other than outgoing LME chief executive Matt Chamberlain admitted as much.

Vic's twitter feed

Mar

9

would someone who wishes a prize send me a good tweet about all the ways the admin has goosed up the price of crude — including the general meme that one should be ashamed of drilling because of climate change.

A reader responds:

The main conclusion is that through policy action as well as through promises of future regulation & threat of capricious punishment the admin has clearly signaled to producers that their days are numbered. The idea that the industry will surge production for an admin that can't wait to crush their margins & replace them is farcical. If they invest to grow production they will do it with extreme caution. Here is my case:

During the primary, Mr. Biden promised a policy of "no new fracking".

During the presidential debate he responded to a question about whether he would "shut down" the oil industry with: "I would transition from the oil industry".

During the campaign, he promised to reduce gov support for oil & gas, ban drilling on federal lands & waters, "hold oil execs accountable" (jail time?), and rejoin Paris Climate accords.

From day one the administration "moved to dismantle Trump's oil and gas legacy". This article while old summarizes the key points of early action.

Granting of federal permits have been paused & in court for the past year.

Keystone XL had a target start date of 2023, and with planned capacity of >800kbd and >500kbd of commitments already in hand, it would have helped anchor the back of the crude curve.

Day one the admin rejoined the Paris Climate agreement, committing to net-zero by 2050.

Big oil was then grilled by congress about why they haven't spent enough money lobbying for the Paris Agreement. (I'm serious!)

As this recent interview suggests, there's likely still no serious coordination with US producers.

Even now, Mr. Biden still can't talk about US producers without threatening them if they price gouge.

And finally, he has so seduced the KSA that Crown Price MBS has said he does not care what Biden thinks of him, and declines his phone calls (lol).

Vic's twitter feed

Mar

9

Aspects of the great man commissioned by me and painted by Susan Slyman

The publication in 1859 of the Origin of Species by Charles Darwin made a marked epoch in my own mental development, as it did in that of human thought generally. Its effect was to demolish a multitude of dogmatic barriers by a single stroke, and to arouse a spirit of rebellion against all ancient authorities whose positive and unauthenticated statements were contradicted by modern science.

I doubt, however, whether any instance has occurred in which the perversity of the educated classes in misunderstanding what they attempted to discuss was more painfully conspicuous. — Francis Galton, Memories of My Life

The Life, Letters and Labours of Francis Galton, by Karl Pearson:

Volume I

Volume II

Volume III

Also see: Karl Pearson

Vic's twitter feed

Mar

9

with all the socialist talk about not raising prices to allocate the limited supply to those who need it most and the dangers of not providing incentive to bring out more supply thru profit seeking, it is good to remember this:

The Speculator As Hero, by Victor Niederhoffer, February 1, 1993

I am a speculator. I own seats on the Chicago Board of Trade and Chicago Mercantile Exchange. When my daughters ask me if my job is as important as the butcher’s, the doctor’s or the scientist’s, I answer that the speculator is a hero, and has been throughout history.

Vic's twitter feed

Mar

6

A reader writes:

We have been having trouble with wild boars coming under the fences and over the walls from neighboring forests. They dig up the lawns and gardens and are very destructive. They reproduce at prodigious rates. They come in in the early dark hours of the morning under cover of darkness. They are smart. They are black, and travel in absolute darkness. Their main weakness is that they are creatures of habit and travel the same paths at similar times. They have poor vision but good hearing and smell. It takes modern technology and other primitive strategies to get them. I place traps in the paths they like to take. I have infrared motion sensors and night vision cams. Still, it took a couple days of all-nighters to get a persistent one. If startled, they bolt in a panic.

It is similar to trading. The spus tend to move late in the dark of night especially in my time zone. They tend to travel the same paths as they have previously. It takes persistence, late nights, and high modern technology to anticipate their moves and have orders in place to capture them along paths they have traveled before. It seems the spus like to return to places they have previously visited several times. Recently, the spus have been jumpy and panicky and tend to bolt, then return once their panic passes. The spus are smart, but have weaknesses. Stupid news stories spooks them.

Mar

4

an excellent book that covers all aspects of growth, including interacting species like in our markets:

Population Biology: Concepts and Models

Population biology has been investigated quantitatively for many decades, resulting in a rich body of scientific literature. Ecologists often avoid this literature, put off by its apparently formidable mathematics. This textbook provides an introduction to the biology and ecology of populations by emphasizing the roles of simple mathematical models in explaining the growth and behavior of populations. The author only assumes acquaintance with elementary calculus, and provides tutorial explanations where needed to develop mathematical concepts. Examples, problems, extensive marginal notes and numerous graphs enhance the book's value to students in classes ranging from population biology and population ecology to mathematical biology and mathematical ecology.

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