Jan

7

Interesting 40% move in Caracas stocks the days Before the capture. It is as if someone knew about the plans and acted on that information. News follows the markets as Larry has taught us.

Jan

6

I asked Gemini if the Nvdia stock price milestone dates associated with Jensen Huang's famous leather jackets. Here is the timeline of Jensen's jacket evolution alongside Nvidia’s stock milestones:

The one that caught my attention is Lizard Era in March 2024. At that time Nvdia price was around $100 and after Jensen's Lizard Jacket appearance Nvdia stock fell 20-25%. And here is Jensen while debuting new chips last night. We will learn soon if the Lizard Jacket is a helpful tool for front running Nvdia stock!

Steve Ellison likes the idea:

Very unique and insightful analysis. My wife read a biography of Mr. Huang. When he was growing up in Oregon, his immigrant relatives wanted to put him in a private school, but the school they enrolled him in was a reformatory. After that life experience, I am pretty sure that Mr. Huang can't be intimidated by Donald Trump or Xi Jinping.

Peter Ringel adds:

agree. probably useful insights can come from seemingly absurd corners. Like the weather of sports teams in NYC.

Jan

6

Markets from Networks: Socioeconomic Models of Production, by Harrison C. White, is one of the most realistic and profound understandings of the the entire industrial structure. highly recommended.

White argues that the key to economic action is that producers seek market niches to maximize profit and minimize competition. As they do so, they base production decisions not only on anticipated costs from suppliers and anticipated demand from buyers, but also by looking at their competitors. In fact, White asserts, producers act less in response to actual demand than by anticipating it: they gauge where competitors have found demand and thus determine what they can do that is similar and yet different enough to give themselves a special niche.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Jan

5

Markets approve

January 5, 2026 | Leave a Comment

today every major us market is up substantially showing the approval of the Maduro capture and its impact on wealth.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Jan

5

So where lies the thin line between liberating Venezuela and putting world into oil supply based recession?

Larry Williams comments:

The quality of their crude is a different issue we use to refine it here; sour, full of gravel etc.

Stefan Jovanovich writes:

Historically, before full sanctions in 2019, the US imported over 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Venezuelan crude, with refiners like Citgo (PDVSA-owned), Valero, Chevron, and Phillips 66 as top recipients.

More recently (post-2023 relief), Valero accounted for 44% of imports, Chevron 32%, and Phillips 66 10%.

Carder Dimitroff writes:

IMO, it's not about oil. The US is a net exporter. They're doing just fine without Venezuela. If heavy oil is desired for refining optimization, as some claim, there's a direct pipeline from Canada.

Stefan Jovanovich responds:

It would help if Carder focused on the use of heavy oil for marine diesel and bunker oil for steam turbines. Those are the essential propulsion fuels for China's Navy; hence, Hegseth's comment today assuring China that it would continue to receive its share of Venezuela's output.

Carder Dimitroff expands:

Globally, three major regions produce heavy crude: Russia, Canada, and Venezuela. Downstream, “heavy oil” or “heavy fuel oil” usually means the residual, high-boiling product left after lighter fractions (gasoline, diesel, kerosene, etc.) are distilled from crude. As Stefan suggests, heavy oil and bunker oil are growing markets, not only in China but also elsewhere.

In my opinion, the administration's interests in Venezuela reflect several interests. High on my list are Venezuela's untapped rare-earth elements (about 300,000 metric tons).

Pamela Van Giessen offers:

Interesting analysis here:

The Real Reason the Pentagon Approved Venezuela: Critical Minerals and Adversary Expulsion

The Department of War has allocated $7.5 billion under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act specifically for critical minerals, with $1 billion already deployed to stockpile antimony, bismuth, cobalt, indium, scandium, and tantalum. This is not economic policy. This is national security infrastructure. The United States is 100% import reliant for 12 critical minerals and over 50% reliant for 28 of the 50 minerals classified as essential to national security. These materials are not interchangeable. They cannot be substituted. They form the irreducible foundation of modern weapons systems.

Boris Simonder questions the thesis:

What rare earth does Venezuela hold that is proven and confirmed? Based on USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 and other sources like CSIS reports, Venezuela has no significant cobalt production or reserves listed. Antimony deposits exist but are small and underdeveloped, with declining output due to infrastructure issues.

Jan

4

European Natural gas - not that far to test 2024 lows, and perhaps even pre-Ukraine-war levels eventually? Peace coming (?) Or general decline in Gas prices (US natty has gone the other direction for a while).

"Price move first - fundamentals later." When something moves (even though I don't trade it - or have expertise in it yet), I often look at it and wonder what it could mean. Mass financial media hasn't picked up on this theme either (much) - another reason to consider what it means…

Carder Dimitroff comments:

For me, this is an important observation. EU-US fundamentals have changed. The current US administration "encouraged" the EU to accept US LNG imports. At the same time, US LNG export capacity has increased. For Europe, the supply-demand dynamics changed. In the next several months, it will continue to change:

• 14.49 Bcfd US LNG export capacity - current.
• 21.81 Bcfd US LNG export capacity - under construction.
• 13.24 Bcfd US LNG export capacity - approved but not under construction.
• 12.49 Bcfd US LNG export capacity - proposed and seeking approval.

Most of this LNG use capacity uses, and will use, Texas/Louisiana natural gas as its feedstock. Feedstock and LNG prices will likely be correlated with Henry Hub prices. If most of this capacity is built, the following trends are likely to emerge:

• US citygate (NG) average prices will float higher.
• US LMP (electric) average prices will float higher.
• US NGL average prices will sink.
• EU NG average NG and LMP prices will stabilize.

More importantly, global LNG markets are changing and will continue to change. Keep in mind:

• Global LNG capacity is expanding
• The US is not the LNG cost leader and never can be.
• As the US dominates EU imports, global markets adjusted accordingly.

Of course, traders should be indifferent about these long-term fundamentals. But long-term investors might consider options.

Stefan Jovanovich asks:

Follow-up question for Carder and others: "What do you think about the Doombird thesis that the Permian drillers and the mid-stream connectors will shift to have natural gas be the hydrocarbon asset that they look to make money from and oil will be the secondary source of income?"

Carder Dimitroff replies:

If the question concerns long-term prospects, global demand for diesel, jet fuel, plastics, and related products is expected to grow. Gasoline consumption may be slowing, but it is not crashing. But who knows where the economy is headed?

For the US, natural gas as a bridging fuel makes sense if it can reach consumers. In the US, domestic delivery is a problem. Globally, LNG delivery is also a problem, but for different reasons. Because they deliver to Henry Hub, producers should be indifferent between the two markets. Beyond Henry, LNG is becoming increasingly accessible, whereas citygates will continue to struggle.

The US is also a net exporter of oil and oil products. Again, the product supports two separate markets.

Most Permian wells produce oil and associated gas (and they are getting gassier). It's not a choice. They get both.

For me, the short-term challenge is global overproduction. Geopolitical considerations rather than economic factors drive the decision to overproduce and erode margins. It will end, and the markets will revert. Until then, it will be difficult for American producers to finance new wells.

Jan

3

From 2018: Investment boss in tearful video apology over losses

And a recent take on it: Fund Manager's Bizarre Apology Video

J. Humbert responds:

Reminds me of this one from a few years ago…

Fleeing investment manager offers victims teary bon voyage – Chicago Tribune

Charles Harris wiped tears from his eyes, looked straight at one of his friends and apologized for lying about the value of the commodity pool he oversaw.

This scene was recorded on one of three DVDs made aboard Harris’ boat as it was apparently heading away from the U.S. and the federal authorities who are looking for Harris.

Jan

1

From the archives:

Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton, Triumph of the Optimists. We cannot say too often that if you read one investment book, this should be it. Ever since its publication in early 2000, it has informed our approach to the market and served as a source of trading ideas. The first comprehensive international market database, this book by three distinguished London Business School professors belongs on the shelf of every investor, trader, policy-maker and economist. In all the sciences, great strides in seeing things how they are came about after the compilation and classification of data. At last we have something that builds on the University of Chicago’s Center for Research in Securities Prices, the U.S. database that led to an explosion in market knowledge and testing a generation ago.

Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of the University of London Business School worked together on this massive project. Within Triumph's pages, an investor may find definitive information on inflation adjusted returns for stocks, bonds and treasury bills, real dividends, correlation between markets worldwide, and the relative performance of value and growth stocks.

Unlike most books written by academics, Triumph avoids hasty generalizations and biased sampling procedures. The authors rightly fault earlier investment studies for arbitrary selection of starting and stopping points, the tendency to include the good and exclude the bad, and a parochial focusing on a small slice of the global picture. Their work epitomizes outstanding investment research.

Great works can be created in humble circumstances. Shakespeare was an actor and entrepreneur who reworked old plots so that his theatre company could make a buck. Cervantes wrote a parody of the fashionable knight errantry books to repay his debts. Dimson told us that he and his colleagues thought of Triumph as "a labor of love, just a small contribution that could lead to a paperback meant for light reading on planes". He added, "Our families would be less kind about our fixation." Staunton, who collected the data, prefers to gather statistics by himself from original sources at specialized libraries instead of delegating the work.

The main conclusion of Triumph is that a random selection of US stocks returned 1,500,000 percent in the twentieth century. Yes, big losses occurred at times, such as the back-to-back losses of -28 percent and -44 percent in 1930 and 1931, or the 10 years from 1970 to 1979 when stocks hardly budged while the dollar lost 28 percent of its purchasing power.

But overall, adjusted for inflation, the return on US stocks amounted to 6.3% a year, better than any other class of securities.

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