May

23

Here is my three-year graph of AAII's sentiment survey. I ignore the neutral voters and calculate the bullish percentage as = Bullish / (Bullish + Bearish).

Sentiment as measured by this survey is middle-of-the-road, and has not had any extreme readings since the tariff tantrum in April 2025. The recent high was 63.7% on January 14, 2026, which fell short of a few 70-plus readings in 2023-24.

Jeffrey Hirsch writes:

This is cool Steve. I’ve been looking at trend and shape in addition to level with sentiment indicators as well as some of my seasonals and other analogs. The sentiment turns in Investors intelligence Bullish %-Bearish Percent and the VIX off the March Lows were not from as extreme levels as 2025 and others, but the shape of the sharp trend reversal was there.

VIX for example only got to about 35 intraday and was in that nervous area of 20-30 where bear markets fester for most of March then it fell below 20 sharply after spiking quickly to 35. Same V in your AAII chart here. So perhaps correction end vs bear or near bear bottom. Also note the trend of higher lows during the 2022 bear market.


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