Mar

19

Below is an update on some counting I did on the NCAA basketball tournament and the Final Four, originally posted in 2010. The data are the programs that made it to the Final Four from 1979-2022, as well as the results. I divided the schools into ones that had made 1 trip to the FF, 2 trips, 3 trips, and 4 or more trips.

58 programs made 172 trips to the Final Four, 1979-2022
Total FF slots: 172
Total Championships: 43

Schools that made 1 trip to the FF
FF trips: 28 - 16.3% of total trips
Championships: 2
Success rate: 7.1%

2-trip schools
FF trips: 14 - 8.1% of total trips
Championships: 1
Success rate: 7.1%

3-trip schools
FF trips: 21 - 12.2% of total trips
Championships: 3
Success rate: 14.3%

Schools that went 4 or more times
FF trips: 109 - 63.4% of total trips
Championships: 37
Success rate: 33.9%

You can see that programs that consistently get to the FF have a much higher success rate for winning the championship. These "power programs" dominate the "lucky underdogs" who have only gotten to the FF once or twice.

The "modal Final Four" is probably 3 power programs and one lucky underdog, and the underdog's luck has usually run out. The 3 power programs then each have about an equal chance of winning the championship.

Notes for fans: The two 1-trip teams that have won the championship are NC State in 1983, and Baylor in 2021. Of the power programs, the outlier is UConn which has been to the FF 5 times and won 4 championships, for an 80% success rate.

Scott Haley asks:

Pardon my ignorance, but the data considers programs' number of FF trips "prior" to the championship of that year, correct? Not total as of 2022?

Big Al replies:

Not ignorance but a good question! No, this is purely an ex-post analysis, totaling up all FF trips and championship wins. Predictively, it supports betting against first-time FF teams, but maybe a lucky underdog is starting a period of sustained performance that will make them a powerhouse.

Scott Haley adds:

An interesting consideration would be the effect of the head coach often being poached by another team after a lucky run. It almost always happens as the lucky underdogs rarely have the resources and/or gravitas to keep them. Basketball is not my speciality so I am unlikely to be able to properly do the analysis. But it's food for thought.

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