Mar

22

The moment specs apply their approach (test ideas, challenge group beliefs, count, be curious etc etc) to other disciplines - eg medicine, botanics, anything really.

One can easily see that one has learned "cliche-thinking" in university/school. And that most normies never leave that cliche thinking. That is fine with me. Gell-Mann effect is real as well. Good to keep it tight and focus on markets though.

Oliver Joseph writes:

To challenge established thinking in any human endeavor whether hard or soft sciences will in my mind invariably produce push back, most of the time. While perhaps a bit hyped right now the K-means algorithm offers in my mind an interesting way to conceptualize group think. In a simplified market context x1= Bull x2= Bear K=2 Bull vs Bear When a local minimum is reached for a cluster often time depending on the data set it makes sense and is workable however there are times where you must reinitialize based on your understanding of the dataset and the results your getting. If we are driving towards a conclusion in a field of endeavor we will reach a local minimum for a variety of reasons. Sometimes what works just works of course conversely sometimes we will converge to a local minimum that does not match our understanding of the dataset. Until we converge we don’t know. Darwin's theory of natural selection represents one such conceptual reinitialization in my mind (with the unfortunate delay in the theories convergence due to many years spent looking at barnacles). There is profound wisdom in the comment by George Soros “buy the lie”. An understanding that the prevailing conclusion is wrong but due to various frictions that exist in the conclusion generator the music will keep playing. Of course until the risks involved in staying with the group's conclusion exceed those of breaking off from convention. The higher the stakes the more pushback from the conventional crowd. Or perhaps Gustave Le Bon:

For it must not be supposed that merely because the justness of an idea has been proved it can be productive of effective action even on cultivated minds. This fact may be quickly appreciated by noting how slight is the influence of the clearest demonstration on the majority of men.

I often ask myself, what barnacles am I staring at?


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