Aug

27

Herbert Dow, the Monopoly Breaker
By Dr. Burton W. Folsom
The Mackinac Center for Public Policy

Above all, Dow was stubborn and hated being bluffed by a bully. When Jacobsohn stormed out of his office, Dow continued to sell bromine to countries from England to Japan. Before long, the Bromkonvention went on a rampage: It poured bromine into America at 15 cents a pound, well below its fixed price of 49 cents, and also below Dow’s 36 cent price.

The imaginative Dow worked out a daring strategy. He had his agent in New York discreetly buy hundreds of thousands of pounds of German bromine at the cartel’s 15 cent price. Then Dow repackaged the German product and sold it in Europe—including Germany!—at 27 cents a pound. "When this 15-cent price was made over here," Dow said, "instead of meeting it, we pulled out of the American market altogether and used all our production to supply the foreign demand. This, as we afterward learned, was not what they anticipated we would do."

Indeed, the Germans were befuddled. They expected to run Dow out of business; and this they thought they were doing. But why was U. S. demand for bromine so high? And where was this flow of cheap bromine into Europe coming from? Was one of the Bromkonvention members cheating and selling bromine in Europe below the fixed price? Powerful tensions surfaced from within the Bromkonvention. According to Dow, "the German producers got into trouble among themselves as to who was to supply the goods for the American market…."

The confused Germans kept cutting U. S. prices—first to 12 cents and then to 10.5 cents a pound. Dow meanwhile kept buying the stuff and reselling it in Europe for 27 cents. Even when the Bromkonvention finally caught on to what Dow was doing, it wasn’t sure how to respond. As Dow said, "We are absolute dictators of the situation." He also wrote, "One result of this fight has been to give us a standing all over the world… We are in a much stronger position than we ever were…"

Aug

23

Appreciating The Chair

August 23, 2026 | 1 Comment

Obituary: Victor Niederhoffer - December 10, 1943 – August 4, 2026

Alex Castaldo:

I think I was lucky to know Vic for so many years. He was very generous to me and although he liked to do things unconventionally sometimes, it was because he sincerely felt everyone should do things their own way and never just to be eccentric or shock people. He always had interesting points of view on many issues not just work related.

Pamela Van Giessen:

It was my great honor and privilege to publish Education of a Speculator. In fact, working on the book with Victor was the highlight of my career. I knew in my heart that whether the book sold 1 copy or 100,000 copies or more, it was an important work. Throughout the process Victor drove me crazy, but mostly in a good way. He was always challenging the status quo, often spot on. He was one of the most generous people I have ever encountered, and I will carry to my grave all the lessons he taught me, along with the many interesting people he introduced me to including Marty Reisman who negotiated the publishing contract with me/Wiley on Victor’s behalf (and wasn’t that just a trip!) and, of course, Bo, among so many others.

The most beautiful person Victor introduced me to was his amazing wife, Susan. If we were fortunate to know Victor, Victor was beyond fortunate to have Susan in his life. May the hole in your heart, and the hearts of your children, be filled with Victor’s love for you and the love of all those around you.

Vince Fulco:

Terribly, terribly sad to hear this news. Working for him was among the best years of my life. I would have carried his ammo can in any trench, in any war.

May his memory be a blessing. Warmest condolences to all who knew him.

Jared Albert:

I sent this to Vic in June and it seems like I should just share it as my commemoration of the man of extraordinarily outsized importance in my life. My deepest condolences to Susan and all of their children.

Dear Vic,
I was sorry to read that you weren’t feeling that well these days, and I wanted to thank you again, while there’s time in this world, for taking a shot on me 20 years ago. Although it didn’t work out like I hoped, it gave me a kind of seal of approval at a pretty low point in my early 30’s and I’ve always appreciated that you did that.

You've remained a central positive figure in my life and I wish you all the best for a full recovery.

James Sogi:

Condolences to his extended family and past business associates and partners . Vic was truly one of the all time greats of the financial world who helped many and changed the markets. He changed my life and my family through his help. I am very sad to hear of his passing. I will always treasure my association and times with him as one of the highlights of my life.

Tyler Cowen:

In addition to his well-known public roles, he worked very hard to help and befriend me when I was younger. Here are the Google searches for Victor. Less well known about Victor is that he had one of the world’s best collections of private letters. He also once gave me a very nice small painting by Jack Savitzky, for which I remain grateful.

Michael Brush:

Vic did a lot of things, but one thing he did for all of us was to generously introduce us to new worlds, new worlds of ideas, and new people.

Vic was really great man. Meeting him was one of those “before and after” moments in my life, back when he started writing for MSN Money when I wrote there.

I remember our last conversation while leaving one of his parties.
Me: Vic you were such a big influence in my life.
His answer surprised me and to this day I am not sure I know what it really meant: “I hope in a good way.”

I will really miss you Vic. Thanks again for everything.

Steve Ellison:

I posted a photo on X (then Twitter) when the Chair played handball against the Senator at the 2015 Spec Party.

William Weaver:

Victor gave a number of us these canes years ago. At least for me it was a reminder anyone can achieve their goals, and it won’t always be an easy path. I took mine down to Wall Street this morning. Thank you, Vic. Will

It is good to take out the canes and hobble down to Wall Street at the close of days when there is a panic. - Victor Niederhoffer

Laurel Kenner:

I found the last cane maker in Manhattan and purchased a number of the most striking ones to send as prizes.

Asindu Drileba:

Until this day, since a few years since I read The Education of a Speculator, I have not found another book remotely close to it. In the finance industry, market analogies are mostly limited to maths & physics. This is why when I read The Education of a Speculator, my mind was genuinely blown by how The Chair would create market references to genetics, music sheets, Dutch philopher Johan Huizinga (Homo Lundens is worshipped in the game design community), checkers and more.

This type of thinking in analogies is what E. O Wilson referred to as "Consilience." So because of this, I would regard The Chair as "The Master of Consilience".

I wrote a short tribute to Vic.

Kiran Kaur:

I was a student of Vic’s. In 2025 he gave me a full weekend at his home, him and Susan both. He walked me through his own book. When I left he put Elmer Kelton’s The Time It Never Rained in my hands and told me The Trees in My Forest by Bernd Heinrich was the other one to read.

I have wondered since whether the pairing was deliberate. A rancher who will not take the drought subsidy and stays on the land, and a biologist counting what is actually happening in three hundred acres of Maine woods. Endurance and counting. He handed it over without a lecture, which I think was the point.

Condolences to Susan, to Aubrey, and to the whole community. Rest in Peace Legend!

Sam Johnson:

A veteran trader pointed me to Vic back in 2011 via speculations website. Encouraged me to think differently about markets and led to a career. Question and test orthodoxy. I wish i could have attended one of his get togethers. He never met me or knew it but he was the second most important person to my trading success.

Yelena Sennett:

Victor certainly did like his hats…

It was a privilege to do podcasts with him. You never knew what fascinating analogy he would come up with to explain the markets. He was always generous with sharing his knowledge, but I believe his greatest gift was an instinct for reading the markets that simply couldn't be quantified.

One of his favorite sayings was, "Never short the market." He certainly lived an extraordinary life, with its share of highs and lows—much like the markets themselves.

Today (August 4th), as the S&P 500 reached another all-time high, it felt like a fitting tribute to his memory.

Richard Barsom:

RIP Victor. Great guy, literally saved my life. Rest in peace Chair.

John Netto:

I remember meeting him for the first time back in the summer of 2011. He graciously invited several from the spec list over to his UWS home. The whole experience fascinated me and his affable personality and welcoming disposition quickly removed any anxiety I had about being in front of a true legend. Thank you to John Floyd for introducing me to the Chair and the list.

Paolo Pezzutti:

I will miss Victor very much. To me, he was a mentor. I received far more from him than I ever gave, and that was part of his greatness. I have applied many of his teachings in both my life and my work.

A brilliant, original and courageous man has left us—courageous even beyond any reasonable limit. He was eclectic, competitive and a great contrarian by nature, but also generous beyond measure. He was a bold, direct and aggressive speculator.

As Nelson used to say: “Go right at them”, Victor always urged me to apply his battle-tested principles to my own trading style.

Newton Linchen:

Victor Niederhoffer was a major inspiration for my development as a market practitioner and had huge impact in the way I view markets and the World.

We are all at a great loss. My respects and sentiment to the family and friends.

Thank you, Chair!

Eric Lindell:

I'm saddened to hear of Victor's passing. I had gotten to know him over the years attending his junto meetings. He was a great guy, and it's a big loss to the investment community and all those whose lives he touched. My deepest sympathies to his family.

Jordan Low:

Victor’s passing is a loss to many. He was so generous with his time and wisdom, and he was a friend to my whole family: he taught my daughter Annabelle tennis, squash, and checkers, and he came to the gala to support my wife Annie when she was honored among the Outstanding 50 Asian Americans in Business. He also taught me the triangle defense in checkers, and drew the line straight to portfolio management: balance risk, reward, and liquidity, and hold the formation at all times. I trade that way to this day. My deepest sympathies to his family.

Rest in peace, Chair. We will remember you fondly.

George Coyle:

Ode to Victor Niederhoffer

Aug

14

RIP Vic Niederhoffer

There are those who teach skills, methods, subjects, or even entire professions. And there are people who permanently change the way one thinks. Victor Niederhoffer was, for me, emphatically the latter.

I landed on a trading desk in the mid-1990s with no background in finance or business and a single economics course (which, ironically, I'd hated) under my belt. Shortly thereafter I picked up Victor's newly-released book The Education of a Speculator. It permanently altered the way I thought; not only about markets, but about the nature of inquiry itself. Shortly thereafter I undertook what seemed like a daunting but morally imperative task: reaching out to him through an unsolicited message via Bloomberg. I told him how much I admired his book and how intrigued I was by his methods. To my surprise, he replied - and invited me to his home for a gathering several weeks later. That simple act of generosity began an enduring mentorship and, eventually, a treasured friendship.

Aug

13

Hey friends. This has been a hard week and difficult to fully accept. So many things to write about Victor, but I'll pick just one small part to bring some levity and that is his sense of humor. Vic had a wicked sense of humor. It comes across particularly is his coded language and his voice that always carried a 40s Brooklyn accent. Here are a few that tickle me: "pretty kettle of fish", "gentlemen and ladies heal thyself", "haaaaaave" (for half), "fish dinner", "brisket at the petroleum club", "not bad for a poor speculator", "Ha!" (as a trade fills), "Mr. Coke", the tennis balls raining down on the roof, "Let's go for a walk". This last one really hits, I'll forever be taking walks with Victor and listening.

Steve Ellison responds:

The Chair’s invitation in 2004 to “join our group of scholars” changed the trajectory of my life. I treasure the many friendships I have from this List and have numerous anecdotes about Victor, but for the sake of brevity, I will confine myself to two instances from the economically depressed year of 2009.

In May that year, I went to a West Coast mini-Spec Party in honor of Kenny Sogi’s graduation from USC. The event was held at a beach house in Los Angeles County where James Tar was living. At some point, we decided to call the Chair in New York. For some reason, the most suitable phone for a conference call was in Mr. Tar’s car, so 12 of us jammed into the car to talk with the Chair. After we all identified ourselves, Victor asked, “What do you think of the market?”

One person after another in the car outlined his reasons for being bearish. After 5 or 6 people had had their say, maybe Victor was getting tired of the bearishness because he called on me by name. “Steve, you’re bullish, right?” I said that I was and cited a few findings from my counting studies.

In August that year, I went to New York for the smallest Spec Party I ever attended, I think between 20 and 30 people. While we were gathered in Victor’s living room, he asked us whether using stops was good practice. The conversation that followed, with everybody participating, was pure gold, a meal for multiple lifetimes.

Aug

12

Twenty-Seven Years with Victor Niederhoffer

When Vic died Aug. 4, 2026, I was halfway through “The Walking Drum,” a Louis l’Amour book set in the Middle Ages. It’s about a man who repeatedly started from zero, a pioneering trader, a scholar and explorer with vast intellectual curiosity, witty in conversation, a man of respect and great courage, a superior athlete, and a magnet for ladies — whom he always sought to protect.

That was Victor Niederhoffer.

Aug

11

Roy N.'s eulogy focused on the ways in which Vic's life could be said to be polytropic. I did not take very detailed notes, but as best I recall he said that polytropos (πολύτροπος) is a Greek adjective used as an epithet for Ulysses in the introduction to The Odyssey. It is a combination of polys (πολύς) meaning many or much and trópos (τρόπος) meaning a turn, way or direction. The exact meaning of the word is somewhat ambiguous, with modern translators making different choices:

George Chapman (1616): "Many a way wound".

Robert Fagles (1996): A "man of twists and turns". Vic's career certainly had many twists and turn and Roy reminded us of some of them. Some key dates were 1987, 1997, 2007 and others.

Samuel Butler (1900): "Many-sided hero". Famous in sports (tennis first and squash later), business (mergers and acquisitions), finance (trading) and acclaimed writer (The Education of A Speculator) Vic was many sided in his talents and accomplishments.

Emily Wilson (2017): "Complicated". Vic was certainly complicated as a person and in his private life. But "complicated" is also an allusion to "complicare" which in Latin means to "fold [a blanket or a sheet] into multiple layers". So we have the many layers idea again surfacing.

Robert Fitzgerald (1961): "Skilled in all ways of contending". Vic loved competition and was always trying to improve his skills and liked to teach others how to improve theirs. Life as preparation for battle.

E.V. Rieu (1946): "Resourceful man". Vic was certainly resourceful and recovered from many setbacks.

I could go on but you get the idea.

I just found out Polytropic is also a word in Thermodynamics, and I can just imagine Vic, who was always curious to learn new concepts, looking the word up in Wikipedia or a Thermo textbook, figuring out the charts and equations and asking: "what would a Polytropic trading strategy look like?, or What analogies to polytropic gases do we see in in everyday life?". Analogies between unrelated fields was an important thinking tool for Vic. An obscure new word could lead to unexpected insights he believed.

Aug

7

Victor Niederhoffer, 1943-2026, 1964 Intercollegiate Individual Champion, by Rob Dinerman

Niederhoffer is the only player, man or woman, to ever capture the Individuals without ever having played or even seen squash prior to entering college. He had, however, as a youngster growing up in Brooklyn excelled at tennis and in a number of the many “wall games” played at the Brighton Beach Baths, a sports complex located near the Niederhoffers’ home that featured more than 20 one-wall handball courts and was therefore known as a mecca for that sport. Although Harvard’s legendary coach Jack Barnaby usually didn’t directly oversee a player’s development until he became a sophomore — leaving the task of coaching freshmen to Harvard’s longtime freshman squash coach Corey Wynn — he made an exception in Niederhoffer’s case, spending at least 45 minutes in the court almost every day with his fast-developing prodigy, the rough edges of whose game and personality Barnaby gradually smoothed over, and whose learning and improvement curves were so steep that Barnaby later remarked that he “never had a boy who learned faster, assimilating everything I threw at him and coming back for more.”

Aug

5

From Andrew Lo:

We lost a giant of modern finance today. I feel fortunate to have known @VicNiederhoffer, to have learned from him, and to have been inspired by his example. A finance scholar, trader, world-champion squash player, and endlessly curious intellectual, he was as generous and kind as he was brilliant. He will be deeply missed. RIP

Aug

4

The Best Player ever to play Capitalist Squash

No player who plays squash in the US should go without knowing the name of Victor Niederfoffer who was, in my opinion, the preeminent amateur player ever to play the game in the US.

In fact, let me say that it was Victor Niederhoffer who inspired me to pursue a path of competitive squash.

An abundance of virtues that I admired were represented by Niederhoffer, by the game of hardball squash, and by how he played the game. One aspect of the hardball is the blinding speed of the game which keeps a typical rally relatively short, thereby compelling the player in a match to think about ending a point with outright winners rather than by keeping the ball in play. The game rewards boldness of shot and for a player, in a typical rally, to recognize shot openings very quickly and for a player to immediately put the next shot in that opening, (something that Niederhoffer executed better than anyone else during that era), rather than for a player to exercise restraint and patience by defaulting to keeping the ball in play.

Aug

3

Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2026

The Global Investment Returns Yearbook, a body of work assembled by Professor Paul Marsh and Dr. Mike Staunton of London Business School, together with Professor Elroy Dimson of Cambridge University, provides an invaluable foundation for understanding the long-term evolution of global financial markets. UBS is proud to continue supporting this authoritative reference, which remains highly relevant for our clients and the broader investment community.

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