Aug

28

the evolution of greariousness ( hed like behavior) the wearing of masks, the bearsihness of Abelson and upside down man, the deifciation of the new Marxist party to be, the contagion of cheers for bad economic news, the momentum ( trend following of incumbents lead) 1 of 2

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1277356590144815105… despite the many reasons that deaths from covid are lyped up by overcounting the # of deaths keepe declining. and many flu deaths are probably counted as covid deaths. all to create a sense of misery before election 

Aug

28

SLAB CITY LOWEST, IMPREIAL COUNTY HIGHEST IN USA​ ​ Slab City, CA has become a free national refugee camp (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sra904

thats dow 1900. he missed a 30 fold increase from 1956 . appparently the cattle trader followed him because she made her $ 99967from theshort sdie ofcattle. amazingly she did this while she said she was bullish form the wsj columns ( that didnt exist)

as mentioned you cant have breakfast all day. after 4 rises in a row covering 125 sp points just a little pause to cover shorts for the bears causes havoc. it only happend 4 times befire july 4. alll were up the next us trading day an average of 1%.

once he had a column with 15 independent reasons for being bearish. the dr. usualll give on reason pulled out of the hat from alll his colleagues in reseach around the world that could be bearish and deserving of caution and lock down

like the chronci bear the upsdie down man and many others he isadamant in seeking ot something self serving and cattle trading serving that will prevent happiness .. and tend to sink the economy. peopple loved abelson the way they do the dr.and he was eclectic in his reasons 

Aug

28

te crocs came out and scared everyone off the beach at 350 and then went bak to ther restig places.. a scare and a ambush without bodies

the crocs hated stee because he captured them alll and they waited to ambush him. there willl be no ambushed today i thiink

again the cdc , fda are united in covering things so that they will be at the fore regardless of what transpires pinnochi rasputin persists in maintaing necessity of futher guidance , restricitons . everything cattle trader from Pinnoch. cattle trader-be ahd of incumb

very subtle destructionof value at fda again.. they will only approve vaccine iif its 50^%% better than placebo. howoever the opalacebos are 90% likely not to detiorate.. so vaccine couldnt possiblye be aprovedl. have to be 10x effective. thus, not invesnted here persts

i believe alll crocodiles are resting and occupied with watching the bathers 

mr 50 hit again as pres gloats with prepared text. but this apparently not helping him in odds one cant resist a little short at these levels

the bilious billionaire site headlind that covid cases set a new record and cunempoyment calims exceeded expetations lobster bus in stonington is way down restaurants are closed ( as it is in vinyl so the little woman wil not be takingme there this summer

last one was up 60 the crocodile awaits the visitor who fishes at the same place twice in a row 

Aug

26

harry roberts was a learned professor and good runner and quality controlman. and friend. he wrote a good bayesian statistics book not published bu he loved differenc tween difference between odds. ratios. he could have used the triangle of challenger incumbent cattle tr

the useful learned idiot ignormaous is growing a longer nose than Pinnochil. hs explanation as to why he said that the public shoudnt wear face masks as they didnt help was that he was trying to save the available moite for hospitals he is intrvwd so often that he trips on nose

of course the ny governor who has ceded the plan for a new police to the protesters who have won is adamant on not allowing dining indoors as this willl help to sink incumbent

all the bilious ones could come up with today was apple is closing 13 stores , Mcdonalds wont allow indoor dining in those not already allowing it. the difference beteen odds of challeng ,incumbent almosot as great as difference between odds of cattle trader , incumbent.

presumably the incumbent wouldnt have said in his press conference that he hopes the employmentnumbers are good unless Mr. Kudlow had told him he wouldnt be embarrased by it. we had 3 nice updays and only before employment it s not bearisih. its 16 days since the lst 20 day

many snares and delusions in paths to rounds. all those learned ignoramuses and useful idiots espousing or hoping for collectivism —abandoning ship holding their fire today 

Aug

26

the leaed ignoramus tries to hide behing his love of the cattle trader and desire to sink the incombent

amazingl conrnelll did some independent thinking without regard to sinking the incumbent https://wsj.com/articles/why-cornell-will-reopen-in-the-fall-11593535516… apparenly they;s so far r e moved from the other Ivy's that they can make a decision based on benefit to students rather than fund raising 

from 1 am its' anyone's game 

as mentioned i can no longer stay tuned to market 24 or 48 hours straight. and a recent reading of the godfather inspired me to spike my coffee with anissette tonight. so i lll have to let you go as the Greek said to Moss. the odds are 2 to 1 that it will be up at 1 am but

situation reminds mme of Patrick o brian''s description of a sinking ship. all hands acting for themselves and free to abandon captain in a life boat. who else is going to come out against the incumbent. how can they hurt him? so many of the recs are fostering the hoaxl ony cor

the bilious billionaires did as much as they couodl to sink it. and the odds on the challamger winning reached an alll time high. strangely strength befor first day of month is bull. and we see a round number in the offing soon. it been so long since a 20 day high

market showed its intrinsic strength today. on the lst day of month, usualy a pandemic tit rose strongly for second day in row. they tried everything. fauci tired to briing ti dowon with scare tactic. and so did change powell. the surgeon journal weighed in with ridic recs

a double header galore of trying to put f inal touches on incumbent. an d the spectacle of alll the politicians wiht masks on certifying their own watchfulness during the hoax is loathsome and bearish in itself. the market is amazingly resilietn considering everything. base 

played footwie with 50 and a stern Irishman looked askance 

Aug

26

how could we not give an honorific to the yae professor nobel prize winnner who is always bearsish and provides statsitcs about p/e that are completely misleading. and our frend the upsdie down man

its someoe whoo kows only his own field but it ignorant of everything else.. who else would yo ugrace with that appeation. it would be very useful

we have previoously enumerated useful idots including pau volker and mauy modernday alanabelsons. but we have not paid enuf attnentoto learned ignoramuses. dr. fauci is one.

Aug

26

andthe dax is perilously close to a constructal nuber of 12000. it s anyone s game again now that spu has broken the inevitable round

the senate impeachment trila was jan 21 to feb 1. could you just understand the hate and vitriol that woud have been thron ata the ncumbent if he had banned travel from relevant countries during that time. the nikke is no longer hyper

another tell paper of recod in ny after firing editor looks like house organ for the likely new party 

nikei and dax going thru rooof

its been suggested i concentrate on football as a tell. i thin baseballl the quintessentail american game much better tellwith all these specious reasons I am leaning to the bull side even earilier th an plannned

straws in the wind: derivatives expert says if investor s dotn se a tail risk they shouldnt be in the market. mark hulbert uses data from 1890 to show that Fed model doesnt work. covid cases icrease with more testing. biden lead icreases. 5 reasons to be bearish besides virus

keys to game . should be a very good empplyment and friday. question is whether to buy on Monday morning or Monday close. collectivists puling out all the stops to sink trump and economy over weeked. incombent lead over cattle trader continues to fall in betting makets. 

Aug

26

in foro a peenny at these levels

te big catholic schoools would pay bklyn much money to come to be defected 83-0 . a typical score Notra dame 79 bklyn -3 it was pleasant ofr those in the Midwestto see the people of Jewish faith be massacred in foootballl.

can a footballl score ever get negative? one reflects as tne probaility of the incumbent keeps receding , it s now 39% versus 56% for biden. how low can it get? when my father played quarterbak for bklyn colllge in 1930 his team sometimes scored 0 against n.d.

Aug

26

Bulls and bears both in no mans land where a move in either direction is requited by a counter move. the net result is a change very close to unchanged— so far… how can the top feeders change this to make the public go the wrong way

beginning to hear just one more salvo from the Marxists. " the stock market did much better during the administration ofo the obama and clinton than the bush and Trump. On another front, i see a confimred death rate of 0.04% for those in the Us under 65

now that I think of it Tobey Crabel who i rescued from the homeless used to beat me also with the same weak serve and volley game. His tennis at that time I thik everyone can agree was much superior to his trading

it was very good for my game. I never lost on my court except once I played Gene scott and he trounced me by poayign a old fasioned serve and volley game wiithout much of a serve

i owned a vichla for many years. he had a disruptive habit of rumming after tennis bls amdcarrying them inhis mouth the only way I could get the balls away from him was by reppeating "thank you very much" pften. My daughter katie joined me i these episodes

Aug

25

Zomby

August 25, 2020 | Leave a Comment

one has been a zomby the last 6 days without any communication in or out  possible because of the conn tornad. I  did so some readling  including the  birth fo a saleman and british expansion af ter loss iduring Amer revo.  and of couse listen on a faltering one bar cessl pphon e again to the time is never rainded. the best thing i read to put everything in perspective was    " four  months of GOvernment Malfeasance { by Hheather Mac Doonald  https://www.manhattan-institute.org/four-months-unprecedented-government-malfeasance       i would recommend it to everyone. My wife wants to know " is this the time for the stock market to decline?"  whats your answer? what would Sam eisenstat say?

Aug

25

theyve done their worst presumablly

we have tinkeers to evers with Fuaci yesterday and the lockdowns by the agrarian loving governors . alll we nee is jay hance to complel the double play… appparently hes holding his fire so far

oof course the number of cases is increasing. however, the daily deaths fromcovid continues to decrease despite alll the incentives to hype the death rate

they threw everything they could at stocks today in a last desperate attempt to sink the incumbent and create economic disaster. however, they didnt give it the fialcoup de grace

Aug

25

thats what the market loves to give you a clear shot but fools yoou into not taking it via deception

ontogeny recapitulates philogeny the market mistesss is very economcal with the price move eveything from 3080to 3140 last 5 days ( witha little exursion for fun 3060- fora few seconds. makes one feel like an idiot that one wasnt able to catch such small range

one of anti Trump memes is that he says that the more testing we do the most cases of viorus youlll find.would think that everyone would agree with that. but that is one of pressies main bones to pick with Prez. we live in polemical and Jacobin times as wsj pts out

dr fauci trying to express his concern and disagreements with eveything Trup.all bears need is for Jay chance gardner to come in with another forecast of decimation of economy. Fauci to Evers to Chance for a double play to attempt to sink economy and Trump

it is itneresitng that dimension finally has something right. they reprot a study that high price to book valuecomppaneis returned 16% per year versus 12% for value stocks over the 19 year s ending 2019. sice then its been more of same

ja doube again after 8 am its completelly random so the market may have to wander without any shorts from ephemeral reasons

the move overnite has been 0.4 exactly the same as ny move from 2011 and since 2019 the moves again is identical 0.6. in both cases

imagine what the Pressies would be saying if the market were swooning. Instead of the sattle trader niping at the heels of thePres, it would be the Pres nippinng at her heels

but in retrospect now that I know the reasons it is good to see that r. Kudlow is on the ball to prevent any market squalls and that his boss is also on alert. its good to have them on guard aginst alll the propaganda . at least they know their last hope is to keep it up.

one of virtues of not folowing the news at all but followingthe price is that the whole apisode of 50 pts downand 70 pts up whichfollowed loose cannon Navarros remarks and Kudlow and Incumbents denial is that one is ignorant or why things happen

another fake reasonto decry the markets rise is that brewski is coming in london and ny and su0pposedoy thhis as important as the icrease in covid cases as testing increases.. however, it is unusuall to see market up today and i may succomb to go against the drift 

Aug

25

a symptom of how much hope there is of the economoo cratering and the viruses increasing and the incumbent s prospects thereby declining was the markets 50 pts drop to 3060 at 930 et. in 10 minutes.

https://marketwatch.com/story/he-hates-shorting-the-market-and-lost-a-ton-of-money-betting-against-high-flyers-in-1999-but-hes-at-it-again-2020-06-21?mod=newsviewer_click… " thee is absolutely no reason to own equities now" except for the drift and propganda against t he incombent and the recent close

https://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-bayes-theorem-with-ratios/… how much more likely is the pres to beat the cattle trader than for the ivisible man to beat the incumbent

why is news like this suppressed. those who wish more collectivism regulated their n numbers and exposure to make the environment for individualis untenable for reproduction and growth.i.e the predators crowd out the prey

guaranteed not to be reported. the number of daiky deaths frin virus in us at 287 is at a minimu and the % of deaths from those infected at 1% is at a minimum. see Phil Kerpen for proper reporting 

Aug

25

incumbent willl exceed difference beteen odds of incumbent versus cattle trader.

shocking decline if last 20 minutes to close at 30454 a erious decline of 3%.. from open of 3144.. ultimately the twin destroyers of Dr. baseball and jay chance gardner were too much for market to withstand. ultimately the difference in odds favoring the invisible man over 

Aug

25

incumbent willl exceed difference beteen odds of incumbent versus cattle trader.

shocking decline if last 20 minutes to close at 30454 a erious decline of 3%.. from open of 3144.. ultimately the twin destroyers of Dr. baseball and jay chance gardner were too much for market to withstand. ultimately the difference in odds favoring the invisible man over 

Aug

25

as Martie Reisman wuld say " this is a key 10 minutes —– to determine whether we cloose above or below the round

wouldnt i t have been better to say that baseballl may not be poayed this year because baseblll is the quintissential american sport which talkes place at the same leisurely pace as farming used to and most people rend their lives. regardless, pressie are using predctn

cattle trader snapping at Heels of Incumbent https://google.com/search?q=pres+odds+stossel&oq=pres&aqs=chrome.0.69i59j69i57j69i59j69i60l2j69i61j5l2.5488j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

you cant suppress jay chance gardner..thrice is not enuf at Princeton for fourth time he now has 2600 down dow pts to his credit. Apparetllly Mr. kudlow must wield a very mercifuo Cat

turn your attention to dinner not a sinner

sp up twice as much as before any quarteroy expiration. a greenish day except bonds manage to be down.cattle trader continues to catch up witn incombent inn pres odds 

Aug

25

de rigeur

how capital is to be deployed better than the owners of companies themselves

reminiscent of last year whenever the cattlle trader surged and the prez faltered the market went thru he roof.. until–midnight on election day. why is it that investors favor the decimation of capitalism. do they reallly feel that Pelosi and Jay gardner can decide

a standard day in the market today. appparentlyl the market loves socialism as the pres keeps falling furtehr and further behind with cattle trader having hin in her sights. the invisible man exerts his influence by doing nothing and letting all events be balmed on Prez

much more important woulld be visit with Cat to woodshed with Jay Chance Gardner who seems to have no idea that the sound bites fed to him cause havoc in the sp so far 2500 dow points directly after the three sound bites. with this far behind, the Prez cant afford these

prez seems to be distancing himself from his problem with biden way ahead of him and cattle trader looking at him from below.. he notes that in enthusiasm hes way ahead of biden. perhaps someo 

ne should tell him that enthusiasm doesnt count in winning elections

the move from 3pm on Wed to 10 pm . Just 7 hours was 3% down.Perhaps a buying oopportunity as bilious billonaires , trump hateres a ll rest on their laurel and hoopefor a repeat of last Thur 175 pt sp and 2000 ptss dow fall, fall, fall

a topsy turvy world with the Prez's own man sinking the market byy 2500 dow points in just 3 prepared http://phrases.as the cattle trader's chances rise to the level of TRumpps for Prez, the hatred and blame of Trump can cfreate temporary ephemral squal lke today 

Aug

24

https://www.quantamagazine.org/weather-data-reveals-long-predicted-pressure-waves-20200813/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosscience&stream=science

 

Aug

24

Nock

August 24, 2020 | Leave a Comment

marching thru georgia at the wigwam.  like the  hoped for decline at 33 55

Aug

24

so fr the Chairs triple eader has been good for 250 sp points against the prez. 50 yest, 20 today and 150 pts on the fomc. that 2000 dow points/

the cattle traders odds of becoming Prez willl soon surpass the current Prez

3 times the chair has sunk the pres with prepared statements of an invidious nature. once on the fomc and twice on his consecutive Humphey Hawkins testimony. Apparently Mr. Kudlow should have a stern talk with him at the woodshed lest the cattle traders odds of Prez

"without modern precedent " one that coudl permannetly damage the economy" unless ( a more compassionate person currently in his basement but leading by 12 percentage pts in the odds https://electionbettingodds.com tkaes the helm )

a fair weather friend is the worst kind to have in the swamp or chairing the Reserve

will somone telll the chair that he sent market down 5% with his seemingly innocuous remarks that the economy is still weak. or will his assistants refrain from spilling the beans that their answers to his likely questions were designed for that purpose

Aug

24

the autonomous group?

Mr. Chairman i d like to thank you for the comprehensve view youve given us on state of the pandemic, mrkt & the economy my question is are the protest groups and occupy in seattle ( in general those not funded by Mr. Palindrome eligible whether on Main street or route 1

perhaps a bear day at lest until 2 am et

aftr listening to Jay Powells testiminy where the amrket moves 10 points on his every answer " hes infavor of loans to non-profits, mainstreet " anything good . i feel i have not hit bullseye with Mr. Cllophen. He's mabel in poor wandering one take me

mr. cellophane tryig to sink the Pres and giving a fed's consensus anti forceast

perhaps a decline from the open

youtube.com/watch?v=PEM_63_P0CY… so a voice within me keeps repeating fall, fall, fall

not mentioned by the bears is that a big decline in dollar is insanely bull for sp. taking the 7 times when dollar sunk the most over last 10 years,(no overlap) i.e a decline of 10% against the Euro the sp up concurrently every time an average of 600 or 3%

like the beat beat beat of the tom tom the fellow travelers are subtly coming back to decry the economy and in the process add to biden's lead steve roach pppredicts dollar dropp of 1/3 and Leo Cooperman predicts decimation for mom and pop investors. palindrome —

nikkei up 1000 about 5% very bull for sp

the probability in favor of Biden winning election keep getting better now almost 60%. MR. Kudlow must be on guard not to let the tohershoe fall by allowing the swammp against the Pres including Mr. cellophane and the cdc to continue shooting at the Prez 

Aug

24

let us

August 24, 2020 | Leave a Comment

stop the wrangling and iportuqace position of disparate views on this list as it is demeaning and incppropriate. i dotn understand what  the fight is about except no invidiosu comparisons are appropriate. i of course i was there on oct 19, 9187  and it was an options expiations  and interest rates was at a high rather than at a low as they are now. there was considerable  buying and selling of futures on the merc but it was somewhat difficult to trade individual stocks like berkshire without a big  bid asked 

Aug

24

wsj.com/articles/the-data-are-in-its-time-for-major-reopening-11592264199?mod=hp_opin_pos_1… another constructal number at 3100 very close to being requited

the gloom is dampened. the virus marketing dept isinshambles  

with the wsj showing that social dsitancing and lockdowns are only effective in increasing biden's lead and dr. rasputin and the cellophane man on their guard against making a monkey out of themselves

he;s palying the cattle market from the short side like the girl he loves

a constrcutable number is ineluctable 

Aug

20

about the virus spreading ( of course its increasing as they test more) stocks are in a good situation . but i'llll wait now for a more propitious time

Germany invented its pas. now the us can if only Trumpwas not a white supremacist…. this is a typical bloomberg article about how bearish and bad things are.. and it stypcal of those who believe in idea that has world. as loog as they re basing things on pseudo news

thus steering mr. cell ophane to bearish humprehyhawkins testimony. at least this ratio is more balanced than the 99% of evaulative articles about the Prez in may 2020 by the 4 major networks besides fox 90% total which were negative compared to the usual

one must assume that 95% of the fed of 2500 fed reserve enployees are supprters of the cattle trader. since the cellophane man is not an expert on eco or markets he mustrey on them for guidance in his testiminy. already the dalls fed kaplan says that the virus is all

dr rasputin says { dont plan on sumer holidays in the us he tells the b ritish( at least oneof my predicitions is validated) i said n or raputic from cdc

never before has there been an open to close down so much with close to close up .its should be a horse race on monday with the billionair bears and the fake increase in viruses ,cellophance man runing aginst the bright retail sales for Tuesday, kudlow ,the signs of recovery

may we anticipate someone from the cdc or another agency feathering its own nest to come out with a warning and a critique against the Trump rally

M. cellophane giving eocnomic update on tue ad wed to what used to be calloed humphrey hawkig https://youtube.com/watch?v=OToWh3nrWn8… as he told Ms. Pelosi "think big" but will he be friendly to the cattle traders as he has in the past 

Aug

20

In its inimical efforts to induce the public to make more of a contribution than they have any right to make to the top feeders the market is infitely creative in coming u p with novel landings. perhaspp the most unusual ever was frida. a large rise but a large fall

A large fall on the two day against as metnioneeed a alrge rise on the one day.. never before going back 20 years like this. included i in the similars is a friday march 13 2020 when the market took the largest declines ever on mon down 281 sp pts thats not a misprint

and yet.. its nto so simple. looking just at the directions over the last 10 years and not takign account of the magnitues there is buo… the decoien came becasue the fed cahir must wish to be considered a fellow traveoer fo the democrats also very salient with biden

way ahead in the beting odds.. there are so many fellow travelers out there that its like whack a mole. whenver the prez is not on guard there is a nancy or a dr rasputin from the cdc or a retired agrarian general or some other of the 3mil fed employees 95% against him to do

him in. the Chair is a fine fellow very easy to get along with that knows nothign about monetaroy policy or the economy. now the Prez has to watch out f for what was considered a safe harbor for foundering

hopefully mr. Kudlow willl have a good ta.k with the Chair and tell him that he shouldnt talk about the stock market or such things as his ignoran e could lead to another rout and the Presidents ire and publc humiliaritie of him

Aug

20

continued bullishness as the biden victory looks like a land slide. Kudlow is on guard

a pusillnimus rise today giving the destroyers and hoped for ruination of economy some hope false that it is 

Aug

20

was out today to attend Aubrey's graduation from middle schoool. illl have an analysis of how the 18 2 and 3 dyas up and the negative serial correlaltion of the fomc days ppalayed inot the hands of tthe bears.

very quiety the nikei is up 140 from the ny close 

followign big moves in tne nikkei in related makets is nto an unprofitaboe strategy yestl nikke down about 1400

you have to hand it to the tripple lay that the billion air bears maek. fisrt they pay for the fanning of revolt and destruction which z hurts theri adversaries. second it creates an unruli situation in the us that make everyone avoid buyng. third it creates empathy with

em[athy with the Serive so that their maneuvers to maintain the compounding without paying the piepr do not go awry what else? of course it helpe=s their shorts and gives them mojo with the pressies. and a visit to the Licoln bedrooom when its apposite 

Aug

20

bring in to create vbad lucl is out of the hotel today and doing his bit to destrooooooy value and trump

https://foxnews.com/us/fauci-nightmare-coronavirus-is-far-from-over… the coolet who casinos bring in to create bad uck for customers is out of Hotel again and doing hsi best to destroy value and hurt Trump and economy his whereabouts before election should be monitored

the lst fomc anouncment was witness by a 73 pt rise in sp one can predict withthe coooler out of the Hotel that thisannnouncemntn willl not be greeted by a rise of anything close to that magnitude if you get the (lack of ) drift

its anyone game today with fomc which based on the serial coorr is bearish. also they owere at a good buoll in the last h our. putting it allll together its anyones game. perhaps the anti billnare and social media bils hve day

they caught me and myr prediction at close today. never before like this 

Aug

19

you cant have breakfast alll day https://youtube.com/watch?v=BMTKH-Fwuac… nor is it the plight of a sinnner when breakfast is taken away to turn his attention to dinner

nor is he a glutton when tired of beef to turn his attention to mutton at 900

billionaires having a field day myfriendc ontributes 33 mill to black lives matter. and the billlion market data firm proving that the unempoyment rate is really 40% rather than 13%

Aug

19

as the market goes up, bidens lead in the betting odds goes up .this is very bull for sp as the prez team dare not say anything noot in accord with the Idea… but after 18 two and 3 day up, I still favor the short side. they owe the shorts a good day on Tues

Aug

19

after 17 2 and 3 days up i ll be taking the plunge sometime on the short side shortly

anotherpredicitionicecreamstoresandbaseballlandapplepiecontestswillbeinalockdownuntlcattletraderandminionscometopower

lets play the round number game for a while until it cracks 

Aug

19

stocks up more than 50% higher than ever before after an unemplooyment annnoucnement

nobody aske me but/ the dept of labor must have some new bosses that dont believe in camp Kicaid. 2. there are a group of pooliticians who are unhapppy with any good eocnomic news. why is this besides their fear that good economic news will help trum. 3. the stock markets 

stocks response to the employment analysis was twice as god as ever beforfe in its ihistory. 4. bond moved up a pt in last hour of trading Friday and this shows that the stock market rise is now over as does the weak close on Friday.5. as the populace became less indiviidualist

secretary of Labor e. scalia has 7 children and i predict that none of them will go to camp kincaid where they sing the Russian anthem mornings . he worked for A.G> barr and presumably would not have tweaked the numbers down like his preds. if only we have new appntees at cdc

ths should be stock market rise not over as it would have been if bonds adn stocks cratered at close

what kind of sense of life do people like bide and schuemr gravitate into where they deplore any good news

ttle trader and her minions like pelosi, schumre,b iden who deplore any economic and stock market gains.tat is ony hope for Pres whostill lags in bettingn odds by a few percentage poimts

nobody 5. if the cattle trader had been in office the marketing dept of the virus would be decimated

stock market rise not over=originally misprinted now over 

Aug

19

the wsj market watch is as replete with bear and w oke as bloom. today theyhghighted a story about climate change having a bigger bear impact than the virus.. moves of stocks u p are attrib to buyers ignorance and indifference to bad news when a mrk goes up it flirts

with mr biden;s lead in the betting odds coninung to soar, now 7 percentage pts… alllthe pre eeds to thoroughly sink is chances is a contination of the bear market. prsmbly he a nd mr kudlow know this. that must be vry bull for the sp

the one fly in the ointment is that bodnsa re finally actingrationally and going down on the crony intervention

https://wsj.com/articles/why-mr-market-ignores-a-world-in-turmoil-11591272919?mod=hp_lead_pos10… market is partying while the world crumbllllles

Aug

19

nikkei threatening to go into berish territoryfor sp

a series of 3 y ellows . shown on daily http://speculations.com

finaly bonds showing revulsion of all spending to bail out cronies at 1month low

market looks like it willl break mr. round and then go down at opening.

two images https://abcnews.go.com/Health/video/police-arrest-father-park-alleged-coronavirus-social-distancing-70037185… one of father being handcuffed for playingb aseballl with daughter,. the other the start of little league in Iowa. apparently the market evaluates both and thes acles tip bull

uncle. it seems equally likely to go above the round as to crater. i learned lesson 

Aug

19

the other shoe dropped.. jOE biden leads Trump in the Betting odds with 45 million bet in the Lott Stossel pool.amazingly this is hapening while the stock markets all over sett new highs and the Greenies are having a field day. why?

extremely narrow day with 10 pt range on al halfhours. the bigs dont like this as they grid=nd out a rofit not sufficient to cover their amssive fixed. costs. xpect some amsive volatilith tne nex few days. i willll provid e an answer to the pressies hostage as impct 

it had to happen . afater alll these 20 day highs i couldnt resist trying a little shortf rom 3087 one is ashamed to be shor t going agianst drift….. but the violence and surge by biden o hate trump tips the wscalels for me

Aug

19

apparently crowds in schools and churches are forbidden but crowds destroying businesses are okay if for a good cause

caa i i get you a drink? how soros?  believe i saw him at the airport. but th egame's not over yet lets play

after a series of 20 day highs bears finally got a break today with a down day, down 0.25, giving them a chance to cover  

shorts after down day what;s going to happen one guess is that any falls willbe great buying opport following methods of Sam Eisenstadt modified by vic 

Aug

18

hold alll tickets ordianrily the reguoarities would be bearish but thsis first day of moh=nth. yet the times has a feature article in magazine saying that the stock marekt is crazy for going up and has lost it s value inallowing the public to participate

times says that the stock marke t no loonger gives the public the chance fo participate in the enterprise sysytem and reap the returns that corp make o their capital investments l thus, the drift is gone? as long as there is ignorance of the magic that is the enterprice 

the magoc os decroe dby tjhose who believe in idea that has world in its grip and causes the decimation of economic activity from the marketing department of the virus

the return oninvested capital of the fang stocks is order of 40% and their cost of cpital with interest rates at zero is much lower. the market looks to long term roc l not next year and average of next ten years. this has nothng to do with virus today

the greenies were in total control on friday the last day of month of 30 times the greenies wore big hats sinc e 2019 it wasd nothing special

but even though eveything is donw, sp has never been down this much as of 1 am so one does not refrain from going against times

we note that the cattle trader is active in commenting about market. and this emphasized to me that if female cattle trader has been in the presidency we would never have heard about corona. and her biggest supporter at the cdc would be calling for more basketballl

the marketing dept of the virus does not like thihttps://www.wsj.com/articles/is-it-safe-to-reopen-schools-these-countries-say-yes-11590928949?mod=hp_lead_pos.. nor do those who hope to destroy hapiness and normal life before nov

Aug

18

from Mr. Diranyi on spec list comes an opportune and timeless post R Dirani Fri, May 29, 11:44 PM (9 hours (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sr8ogu

the odds on the presidentail election keep narrowing to pcik em with 3% pts only 48 to 45 seperating the two likely candidates. this

must be very bullish for sotck arket as no matter whant the pres does or what hapens the media willl hold i against him the only arrow in 

only arrow in prez quiver is the stock market. he must keep it high and not do anything to drop it down as he didnt do on friday with presumably wise man's kudlows advice to maintain the revent 40% rise bak to year end levels.

Aug

18

they owe us a break thru constructal number hopefully we wont have to wait until close

locusts in afria eu headed for worst case slump, honk kong losing its independence nasdaq crates on idiotic pres threats typicao headlines form billlionaire site today

perhas give the bears a little something today to prepare them for the deluge subsequently

Aug

18

naure works to reduce the abundance of rabbits in the seasons that willl have scarcity of resouces. https://wsj.com/articles/the-blue-state-lockdown-blues-11590446582?mod=hp_opin_pos_3… nature also works too reduce abundance of those not prepared for life( the displaced in the idea that has wrold in grip

as alll constr'uctal numbers have been reached ther are no predictions for todya..its anyones game

the grass is green the lilacs are fragrant, and the spouses loook like marilyn monroa and frank sinatra

guaranted to happen. dems stilll hope for destruction and devestation and bust in economy. what kind of sense of life is this. " what can i take from you? whatcna yougive me? the clarion call of an agrarian

nobody asked me but do certain reporters for a major news and data center get paid a bounty for finding negative articles abot the stock market or economy so as to hurt trumps chances. today at 340 was a nice case in pt deserving a good bonus

welll a certain billionaire's market data firm was able to temporarily knock the market down 20 points at 340 pmet on tues but the costructal number refuses to be hoodwinked by yet another anti trump story from the agrarian firm. if one ever sees an optimistic economy

if an optimistic story on economy or stock market ever appears on that agrarian pressie then please alert me and i[ll eat crow raw ,squawking and fully feathered 

Aug

18

all stock markets within a gnats eyelasth , and heading for constructal numbers 3000 in sp. 21000 in nikkei,1,, 11500 in dax. .

there is unequivocal evidence that the prevalence of sickness in school age children is incrediblly low. see phil Karpen on this for voerwelming wihtin and between country data on this. But what was it guarajteed to happen that schools woud be locked down

the reason is that education is very beneficial for school age children. people that believe in idea that has world in its grip are led by an invisible evil hand to decrease the abundandance and survivability of their children versus others 

a good summary article on what Phil Kerpen and all thespec listers have been enumerating for the past month https://aier.org/article/focus-on-the-covid-19-death-rate/… and the reason that stock markets are about to blast thru constructal numbers

victro hugo's novel the manwho laughs concerns a disfigured man , a monster https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Man_Who_Laughs… who is 16h century examplar of the collectivists who closed schools in those days ( i have to think this thru better)

tow interesting posts from the wsj leettters. 1. Deaths don't consider the factors of co-morbidities. A (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sr8j83

first shoe drops on constructals with nikkei 21043

one of the pillars os destroying self interest ( the idea grip etc) is to keep kids away from schools these is ample evidence that chiiodren's death rates a re much lesw than the flu. but the other side of cooin is can theytransmit it to party officials and teachers

there is much mumbo jumbo about this with all sorts of armchair speculations that it is possible for a aprty official or congressman or teacher or cdc worker to cathch it. but the empiricla evidence is

no case reported . this info must be suppressed so that shchools remain closed and kids wth parents that beleive in idea hthat has world in its grip willl nnot be educated and willl be at a great disadvantege in life

seond partiial sock fallls dax up form 111000 at close fridayto 11413 now. perhaps 115000 is seocn dshe worthy

mark cuban believes in idea but is often sensible to live with risk. The NBA is looking to restart in late (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sr8jcm

mark cuban believes in idea but is often sensible to live with risk. The NBA is looking to restart in late (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sr8jco

Mr. mandel at phil terpen poitns out that themainstrea media is beginning to cover the excess deaths not realted to covid caused by the lockdowns. he suggests that one cause of excess deaths wiooo be the numerous peoople with cancer that had tow ait 4 or 5months to be treat

but here i dsiagree with him. most chmothrapies only add 1 or two months to life expectancy at the cost of totaldsiruption to life and happpiness. teh dellays will not increase thenumber of cancer deaths imho

Aug

17

At the risk of being lambasted again, one of the things Keynes was first to
understand was the difference between economic theories versus how the world
actually works. He was a behavioral economist before there was such a word.
For example, Inflation or Deflation should be equally tolerable by the
rational economic man.  But in practice it is not so.  No one likes a pay-cut
even if the hard currency is theoretically more valuable.  Deflation
eventually leads to lost confidence, unemployment, economic stagnation,
strikes and rioting. ( see the 1930's UK) It just does not fit human nature to
feel better off with less cash.

But inflation works just fine in both theory and practice. (not hyper
inflation though).  And that is what every developed country has practiced
since the 1970's.  Wages generally go up to appease us worker-bees.
Governments can spend and borrow like there is no tomorrow and then inflate
the debt away.  No one really calculates the implicit tax in a decreasing
currency valuation. The rich never hold cash anyway.  The working man doesn't
save enough for it to matter.  Assets priced in dollars go up.  In effect all
government policy is Keynesian now.  It is written into the Fed charter to
target inflation. The Treasury has not balanced an annual budget in 20 years.
Believe me I prefer the elegant work of Hayek, Hazlitt, Uncle Milty and most
of all Thomas Sowell, but this is not our present world.   

It would be an interesting thought experiment to imagine a world of balanced
budgets, decreasing credit and a strong dollar policy.  I posit is would be
quite bad for stocks.  The last time the US balanced the budget was during the
Clinton years 1998 to 2001. They actually suspended Treasury bond auctions for
a period.  Shortly after we entered a 3-year bear market. We are nowhere near
such a world now.  All of this is a long-winded way of saying if the choice is
between having the best model and making money, I will go with the later.

Aug

17

nobody aske me but 1. the sp would have set new highs on Friday except for thecHINESE ANNOUNCEMENT ON GNP. 2. aS IT IS THE MARKET HASNT SET NE X DAY HIGHS SINCE Wed may 24 when it closed at 2069 just 13 pts away from Friday's close.3 its only a matter of a gnat

before sp exceeds the high 8 days ago and then barrels to the constructal number of 3000. 4. talking about the wrorld gone mad. Gov. Cuomo has been roundly criticizd foro the incredible nummber of nursing home deaths in Ny. His defense is its the Prezz's fault since

https://foxnews.com/politics/cuomo-blames-trump-nursing-home-debacle-new-york-coronavirus… the cdc and cma recommended that nursiing home sshould take those with virus. since when does the Prez control the agencies whose actual political contirubtion are 95% not

contributions too cattle traders. 3. Elmer Keltonoo has wisomd about futurues trading that is resonant to alll who have fee t on ground. Hee's talking to a wool buyer " hows wool charlie asked knowing he had never met a wool buyer who didnt say the market was on verge 

the mills havent made a dime this year{ the buyer said. The futures market slipped 3 points yest . grease (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sr8h45

Aug

17

The adage  " he's    simple  person playing checkers while  ths sophisticated   person is playing chess".  Nothing could be further from thetruth.   Modern life is  replete with electronics.  , transistors, and computers. they work  on  states of  on and off-  high voltage or low voltage, true or false. Theyese components form the basis for computers.  They  dont use a  decimal system but sometimes they are groupe dont  8  bits of on or off.   THey   binary system  can come up with very complaice=ated and sophisticated devices    .    Checkers is  lie a binary game. you can  move forward only one apace diagonally  and   if there is another checker in your way you skip over it adn take it. it leads to cery coplex situations.   The  good checker  player  mus be able to make  80 exact moves  to win may standard games.   he must meomorize  as many games as chess   and be able to visualize the board.   mot good checker plaerys can  paly 6 or 10  games blidolded.    The level of expertise in checkes is such that  it took  8 computers   mny years of tryijg all permutations on  many powerful computers to come up with a solution. a good playercan  playeven wtih  these computers  ………. the best checker player  of all time Marion Tinseley  constantly invented news ways of winning and preventing losses.   The fact that checkers is a binary game  and by extension a hexa decimal tame by strinigin 3 moves together the way they do in   most tournaments  makes checkers  a nxcellent game for  logical thinking    sues in all electronic circuits and   arithmetic compuations.  chess on theother hadn has so many moves that is is an appropriate game that simulates  ancient warfare rather than modern electronics.  ( tobe continue and refined

Aug

17

everythings bak to preceding bulll china exerted a temp decline but hoiday cheer should trump it

i realize that i could have been more helpful in the evening. I got blindsided by the chinese response and fellt there could be a further decline below 2930 and i cant stay awake a few days in row any more. it did decline to 2904 but i got them bak and it rite this morn

all the quants , quasi docs , statistcians on spec list are ask " where is the evidence that locikdowns worked? they site numerous xmples that it didnt work. . mr. vince adds that itsure worked in ruinng the economy. i add to that " what does that have to do with stock

Mr. karpen is a veritable cornucopia of balllast against the idea ths hs world in grip (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sr8fev

i go bak to my post about the food suply and reproduction in rabbits adjusting to the rainfall. the rabbits are abundant before good grass. the cattle traders in the world are not fit in this world and have to suffer the price in abundance wherever they are led by

whevever the cattle traders are led by or believe in idea that has world in its grip, they and especially their children suffer in abundance and productivity

once more into the breech

Aug

17

another trick shot of ephemall nautre by the bears destined to pay the penalty for such a bold and nopeless dodge

the ephemera l decline continues to the morning hours. it may not berefuted for a day or two. it looks like too hasty ac all bby me. have to get them later

Aug

17

The constructal number , the bane of those who hold the idea that has the word in its grip beckons

a fine player knows never to see a trap for his opponent. a drop shot is always a loser .. a good board player uses strategy not tactic . he never expects a goo d oponent to amke a mistake. when he sets a trap for oppoonent he might as well resign.

in that context the ip at yesterdays close can be seen as a futuile attempt by mr. market and those who hope for further destruction and bear to set a loosing trapp fro which they are paying dearlyll today and the future for

a rather timid 50 pt rise. but one doesnt look a gift horse in the mouth

a 20 day high yet again but without a final crescendo. a waiting move 

Aug

17

on the spec list larry and i are sharing divergent views for the first time since we came out together in Tokyo so that we would be more in the mainstream. he is using theadvance delince which is not part of the golden machine that he positied for stocks to make money for

stoocks make money for public by giving them the oportunitey to buy them for profits especially in times of uncertainty and to take account of the drift.. but he is against the golden machine rite now and I am with it

very narrow 10 pt range from 930 open.. how can public make more thanusual contribution

they had a nice 50 pt decliine from 239 pm et to tehcoose very deceitful and masterful

fireworks like end of a chess game where both players are runing out of time. reminds me of the duke north car basket game where duke was behind 10 pts with 90 sec to go. duke won in second overtime afteshanking a foul shot with 1 sec,to go , scoring on jump to ti in reg

Aug

14

As a child

August 14, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Alan Millhone writes: 

We all played Checkers on those awful red and black boards , so most consider a child's game as you simply move the pieces with reckless abandon. 

Chess looked daunting with the different pieces moving in different directions. 

Thus the difference in perception as to both games perceived levels of difficulty. 

Victor Niederhoffer  writes: 

binay  numbers  like checkers moving forward and backwards 1 square can creae a computer or all electronic logic circuits. that's the way computers  do  comutation.   leads to extremely complicated situations.  the  lessons from binary  moves are more important than contrived moved of chess on an old fashioned war games board. . all good checker players can lay 8 games blindfolded simulatneiosu like pillsbury. etc

Aug

14

CCP overplayed their hand and whatever advantage obtained by virus release is in the process of being (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sr8b0v

sp is in the catbird seat with bonds near alow crude up 400% for the 16 th day up in row … how about a little deception before stock move to new high

if ony they can keep dr. rasputin in the closet

may i make a humble suggestion>> when the vaccine is ready. let us prioitize not only health care workers but memebers of the cdc who have devoted so much effort to inform us of the risks and models

if an objective measure of the compassion and sensibility of those prioritize is appropriate , let us examine now only how much they contributed to blue politicians but especaiillly how their spouses and children contributed

of course the moderna results have a millio gaps and randoms in them doubtless someelse will trump their baby . but of course that has noth9ing to do with why the market should be up.. its been a long time between highs

and more improtant its becoming incrweasinglyh obious to peoppel who ivest that the lockdowns , the beseeching for handouts is a instantiation of the idea that has the worod in its grip. the pandemic would have been di rigeur without the agrarins using it to trump trump

illl have another old fashined. bonds finally reacting

the deception was a possum. waited and waited and finally got away fast

a little thanatopsis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apparent_death

market stilll has some bounce in it. a nice 6- day high to establsh a foudation. tomorrow could try a oittle terrible decline at times

thats a 60 day high

Aug

14

there have been many crises that have hiit Americans in last 150 years. Ordinarily the country a nd economy bounces back to new highs/ and thus enables the 10% a year drift in sp. but now its clear that a whole swath of the pop ( call them agrarians or displaced

those who believe in the idea that has the world in its grip, i.e. self interest inad indiviualistm must be eradicated will do anything to prevent the economy from getting bak to normal. straws in the wind everywhere. to me the reluctance to allow baseball bak is key indicia

many numbers show that the % of school age kids that die from virus and % that transmit it to others is close to zero, like the cahnces of getting bit by a shark. why are schools beinn closed> all their funding and training and people are believes in idea in grip

scenes from the life of Elmer Kelton, voted the best western writer by Spur. " dadddddddd didnt like the way (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sr89v4

https://worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/… if new york shows it this low with all their incentives to hype the fitgures it must be close to zero

sure enugh dr. fauci is exhibit number 1 as to why sports stadiums cant continue to have games. " if people have to social distance , so be it " 

Aug

14

another day from mother market with just a smalll range of 30 pts frm 2835 to 2863 just 28 pts. how in Hades can the public pay their way for the gigantic infrastructure and expensive equipment when there's just a 30 point range. expect a wild ride today during the day

the greenies are still in control withtne nikkei resting above 20000 and bonds refusing to go d own for fourht day in row with oil up 300% for 15 th day in row. we should thank a certain options broker for dropping 1000 million to make the oild market go up 3000% intwo weeks

The greenies are doing less pull ups now that sp is down almobt 30 but theywill ahve their day

why do states with most interventio policies have the highest death rates what does this have to do with mother nature adjusting the rabbit pop to the amount of feed available? a thought engendered by the time it never rained by elmer kelton the audible version is best

a sad story about orange county the death rate from covid is 3 per 1000000 yet all the resorts are locked down . they have to believein theidea that has the world in its grip to survice and prosper. and that idea buries them the balance of nature

remembrace of things past. nikkeiabove200000 againand bonds are dw nandstcks treatenng to go higher.. the baseball season reminds us of things past when it was invented as an agrarian discipline

nikkkei playing footsie with 20000 level

Aug

14

unusual action in sp tonie a range of just 27 pts . how can public make a nice contribution to infrastructue with such small. also unusal is resilience of sp with nikkei and dax cratering and bonds up a pt

nice unnoticed 200% continuous rise in crude in last two weeks.

correction . amazing resilience of sp versus dax very bear fo sp today but bull overnite and tomorrow

perhaps a bounce in sp from 900 am to 10 am et

nikkei bouncign from down 3% at 19712 to 19745 at 9am

perhaps bouncing is over based on the amzing overperformance of sp to other markets

https://investing.com/indices/japan-225-futu… weakness in other markets gathers steam with bonds exerting negativeinfllllllllluence also

tremendous u p moves in dax and niikkei of 200 a;ace make mr. round from below look viable from sp

now we can see wha tthe low range of 25 pts from high to low as of 9am lured one into and provided ample opportunnity fro the public to do the wrong thing. on thing is constant . the strong will take from the weak

the greenies are having a field day

Michael Chekalin

@ChekalinMichael

Replying to

@VicNiederhoffer

Great job Vic. Not a single call you made (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sr872i

Aug

14

a very sagacious man has a very surprising and a priori unliikely prediciton

should be nice sp for asian markets at least

the most salieint things in news to me as they effect the market are the two repubocans that won close races unexpectedy and the growing awareenss that the death rate from cooroa is very similar to flu that the # of fatalatics has been vastly overestimated.

also the growing movement by the common mand and woman to add the contributions they make to bettermetn in their jobs regardoess of the hgher amount they make on unemployment.

the market has had its mandatory bout of breakig the round # of 2800 from above 

Aug

13

Let us not

August 13, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Victor Niederhoffer writes: 

let us not be too obsequious for ralph. admittedly in the past he has b een ver y accurate with his bullish call. but in fact hs had been bearish  during the 3ntire 50%  rise in the market since midmarch. recently the      market has gone up 6 days in arow from 3240 t 33 32 ..how in the world  a  person who is bearish and leveraged has  withstood this  rise   , one doent  know. in amy case its' been obvious for some time that Mr. vince is reaching out for  reasons non preidictive and  chart based to be bearish. we do not help him or us by complimenting him on oen day rite and 49% rise wrong. however, admittedly he has been one of the most accurate and useful people on this list. but we dont help him or us by heaping aencomia on hism  anyone who has followed his o or worse yet has  basked in the adulation we have to Mr. Vince is terribly hurt financially

Ralph V. writes: 

lerm…..in truth, I was long in late march, I didn't start getting short until early May. in fact, I can go a LONG time like this too. anyone who is "following me" and gets hurt, deserves exactly that; I don't post things here for others to "follow" or tailgate. Rather I try to give the reason why, and open up avenues for discussion, but more importantly,  that this is an endeavor in patience and nerve, not tools for finding an easier, softer, more comfortable way. Most players are looking for a means to use the markets so as to make money painlessly.. Anyone seeking comfort in the markets is looking in the wrong place. I make no apologies for drawdowns and I posit that since you are in the binary world either at equity highs or some degree of drawdown, you better learn to deal with drawdown and the concomitant discomfort  which I try to exhibit real-time. 

This has been a nickel-dime game so far this year in 2020.The entire year will come down to being on the right side of this for no more than several very critical days when it breaks. Patience. Nerve.

If you want, I'll follow Tyler and Jonathan and the others out the door and leave the list to its  books and theories and colleges and kids and political yap and sports nonsense and masks and economic yibbityblibbity and recipes and whatever. I'm focusing on those several critical days just ahead up the road and I'm not being knocked off my game by anyone's opinion of me or what Im trying to do.

Aug

13

Quantity theory of moeny with production down and  money up leads to inflation . and  provides an antidote to the harmful government  substitution of production work with    expanded  emoluments  and  setting the basis for marxism and loss of free enterprise

Aug

13

today so that there will be universal income for and mediare for all. " let it rip" schumer said in an effor t to take back the senate and destroy the economy at same time

however, we note that the last big high occured on 4 - 29 . just 7 days ago.." have you tested that" willl the numbers trump the anti trumps?

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/news/oil-trader-loses-millions-on-brokerage-glitch-2020-5-1029186688… a great modern example of " the chickens coming home to roost" Perhaps the chicken should be hung around the great option trader head of fine firm neck

the markets ae wearing green berets this morning. how can they induce the publc to lose?

the drs gave us the business yesterdaay now 8 days and a 100 big points since the last big high 

Aug

13

keys to game updays in a row: very strong close:beginnings of reulsion in bonds: histeresis in stocks: refusal to understand that stocks czn be strong when economoy is weak: what else

Aug

13

a goood article from the wsj for those individualists who have not listened to the bears

https://wsj.com/articles/a-growing-impatience-with-the-lockdown-extremists-11588957811?mod=hp_featst_pos2… heres the article. . like many older persons a good book, show or article like thisi one elicits many past experiences and causes one to cry.

as m the principal of my elementray school said to me. "youshoudl knwo better your fatehr is a cop" worse than dr ferguson is dr. fauci . he should know better because he's in the field and hides his agendawhy can t we all stay at home many umemplooyed receiving more money then when they were at worik with the (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sr80fi 

 why can t we all stay at home many umemplooyed receiving more money then when they were at worik with the (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sr80fi

Aug

13

the grass is green, the flowers are in bloom and every market looks great. what can the top feedeers do to gain food at the expense of public today?

how about a nice ephemeral decline on the unemployment annnouncemts before nikkei hits 20000 and spf hits 2900 on the way to constructal numbers 

all the rounds have been broken. the only question is whether Frida willl make the as usual a new 60 day high at 20445. Biden seems like he'll be reaping the whirlwind only other question is why bonds were up on Thur. new stages in economy to come with all malinvestment 

Jul

27

eveything up in air from Yest close

everything in transition with bonds and crude down this morning 

nvesting.com/rates-bonds/us-30-yr-t-bond… sstrange and unprecedented move in bonds. perhaps finally denyig the cornucopia of mms 

modern monetary theory says that fed buying bonds to financne government spending does not cause interest rates to increase. no f negatove feedbak mechanism 

one doubts that it will go down 37 poinits from 230 to close liek yest

yes it " only" went down 25 points 

Jul

24

everything beautiful the bonds are down almost a point crude up 20 % after 5 d ays in row up, the Nikkei is threatening to ascend to 20000 again and the stocks havent seen a down half hour in ages.. Alll we need is for Dr. Fauci to say we dont need ay more shut downs

he kids are doing their homework and foregoing video. the music is harmonious. and we see that the severity of the virus is vastly overstated in most areas because of the incentives to make the Prez look bad and the double reimbursement from medicare for calling it a corona.

aside fomr dr. fauci, we need a little thunder and some weainess so that the ublic doesnt make easy money 

Jul

23

the keys to the game are particularly difficult and diffuse thsi week. 1 the earnings estimates are more disperse than ever. 2. the companies that reported so far the big five are much more boyant than the remaining 45% f sp 500 compaies to report. 3if there is one fly in

fly in th eoitment. to me it is the fall in real estate prices. to an amazing extent almost all major decliens in stocks have been associated with declines inreal estate prices since the time of Henry george in the1880's. 4.. with a google of pics of Joe biden being

affectionate with others, it is likely that another victim besides tara Reade willl come forth. 5. Hillary is now 7% like to be the Democratic mnominee. 6. with all these cross currents I have looked for one market that will be the canary. I find it in the Japanese Yen

with every mmajor paharmaceutica company racing to find a treatment or vaccine for the viruts, it is likely that there will be other breakthroughs reported in the media. the last oen caused the biggest overnite rally ever stragnely the improvement over the pI tis amaizing

that the impvrovemtn over the poacebo was only 3 days. moregenerally many drug therapies provide only a few day or few motnh improvement over no treatment. consdiering the daamge to life from side efects of digestion and enegy and life style disruption the cost

bemefot pf many of them has to be negative as is the treament from Gilead.. it is amaterurish and tytpical of dR. fAUCI TO SAY THE IMROVEMENT IS STATISTICALYL SIGNIFICANT . AND THAT HE ALWAR=YS WILL err on the side of excessive caution. the pictures of him and the PRez

always remind us of Czar Alexander and Rasputin and I still claim he plays the same role as Rasputin in his and his families hoped for demise of the PRez family

others in his peer group are the 95% in the cdc and the swamp that contibuted to the Democrats last election. As i asked about the cattle trader what hpaped to the otheR $500/ THE OTHER 5%? the news abbout peter strk tryig to get Flynn to lie is a terrible exampel of

he battle that the Prez has faced with the samp. What would have hapend if during the impeachment trilas the prez had declared amore draconian ban on China.? more genrally what is the hidden cost of alll the productiv activieis that were lost and not made by the handouts

ecived an urgent method from Mr. vince. " the worst of the dri is still to come " he looks at volume and pain… I dont agree. vic

he statistics
 

Read: http://tl.gd/n_1sr7qv8

every gemtleman and woman knows that when you kiss someone on the face but not the lips the kiss conveys an invitiation for futher romance. presumably that was not unknown to the vp and also that he wasnt always unsuccessful

a prescient responose from a wsj SUBSCRIBER 1 hour ago I suspect that many of the 'reported' Corona Virus (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sr7r1f 

Jul

17

the keys to the game are particularly difficult and diffuse thsi week. 1 the earnings estimates are more disperse than ever. 2. the companies that reported so far the big five are much more boyant than the remaining 45% f sp 500 compaies to report. 3if there is one fly in

Jul

11

Alex Castaldo writes: 

Heres the skinny. from math puzzles volume 1, by  presh talwalkar. doc here. from nature walk. originally to stretch aubrey's mind . odds of a comebak victory

Consider 2 teams a and b that are completely evenly matched. given that a team is behind in score at half time, what is the prob that a team will overcome the deficit and win the game. assume the first halve and the second half are taken to be independent events. Presh solves it as follows logically:

Since the two teams are evenly matched, it is equally likely that the team will score enuf points to overcome the deficit or that it will not score enuf points. fo example the event of falling behind 6 pts in a half game happens with the same prob as gaining 6 pts in a half game. He concludes prob is 0.25

Now we posted the empirical resutls from basektaball games and many others have given the empiriclal results for football games … and i gave some results for the markets.. this seems to be of interest to everyone , had the most views of any posts, and it was good for 7 or 8 points today.. lets have your discussion and solution of this problem. presh says the answer is 0.25 both empirically (NFL in 1995) and logically.

Jared Albert writes: 

In a game with two teams where in the first round, the team 1 advantage varies from flat to all the points available in the second round, the probability of  team 0 coming from behind to win are in array with 20 available points in the second round:

[0.49, 0.306, 0.22, 0.129, 0.09, 0.03, 0.018, 0.011, 0.004, 0.002, 0.002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0]

For example, if the teams are even going into the second round with 20 available points, .490 chance that team0 wins; with a one point advantage to team1 at the start of round2, team0 wins .306 of the time;

2 points to team1, team0 wins .220 of the time etc

Here's the montecarlo:

import numpy as np

np.random.seed(10)

out_list = []

out_list = []

count = 1000

win = 1

lose = 0

team0_start = 0

team1_start = 0

size=20

def runs():

z = np.sum(np.random.choice([win, lose], size=size, replace=True, p=None))

return z

def outcome(team1_start, count = count, team0_start=team0_start):

 l= []

 for _ in range(count):

 team0_end = runs() + team0_start 

 team1_end = runs() + team1_start 

 came_from_behind = team0_end > team1_end 

 l.append(came_from_behind)

    #print(f'l: {l}')

    outcome = sum(i > 0 for i in l)

    return(outcome)

for i in range(size):

out_list.append(outcome(team1_start=i)/count)

print(f'outlist: {out_list}') 

Victor Niederhoffer writes: 

up your alley i  think. we have done something similar for market with real empirical results. the  unconditional prob is much less than20%

Stephen Stigler writes: 

I am sure you know but I repeat anyway:

1) the simple calculations ignore correlation between teams.

2) they also ignore information on the distribution of changes

3) Calculations using the distribution of changes are not hard.

4) But the information about the probability of extreme events is not well determined so they can be inaccurate

5) In any case  markets unlike sports are not zero sum games.

Jul

11

How

July 11, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Victor Niederhoffer writes: 

are you doing  and how is millie doing…'2 what is your reaction to all the police violence lately .d o you feel it shoudl be defunded?  3 artie said  that during  his tenure it wa s     aomost mpossible to arrest a b lack personage because  eveyone was loookign at you a skew.

William McCarthy replies: 

Hello Victor,

How are you doing?  Millie and I are hanging in there.  Plenty of doctor visits for the both of us.  But all is well considering.

The only thing different about the police violence today compared to the past is media technology.  Cell phone video cameras and the internet.  These recorded criminal acts by police unfortunately have always occurred by some rogue police officers that were denied. There is no justification for what was witnessed in the Minneapolis incident.  I feel for the 2 rookie officers that were present who were also charged.  There lives were ruined before their law enforcement careers even got started.

It seems that physically resisting arrest has become an expected allowable standard practice on the part of the public.  Resisting even a unlawful arrest is against the law (at least in the New York State Penal Law). The citizen's recourse is to submit to the arrest and make their claim of false arrest in court.  

The police have little influence if they are not supported by the general public.  And without the public's support they are personally discouraged from self-initiating any enforcement activity.  No one can know in advance the outcome of an encounter.  The public has been falsely educated by all of the popular TV shows that depict the law enforcement main character's swift and facile physical actions.  In real life it can get ugly fast even when the actions of the police are lawful. Few ordinary officers are prepared to make it look easy. That requires constant physical training and technique. On television the "good guy" always wins.  That is not the case in real life.  

Can society survive without the acceptance of the rule of law by the public and its enforcement by the police?  There would be little to video if the public did not physically resist arrest!

Victor Niederhoffer writes: 

do yoou agree with me that the strength oof the unons makes it    almost impssiblet ofire ann officer, and no knock lawas and qualified  immunity and  oikuce nilitary equipment, and  juries favoritism to olice   needs reform. very glad to hear of  your consilience, we are abotu the same as y ou and Millie. moved out of ny. no good reason to stay for us without broadway and restaurants, just reread the Gofrather . wata is realistic?.

Victor Niederhoffer adds: 

billl mccarthy  was a friend   and student     of my father    andn chie fo the bomb and couter  intelligence dept, and  made more arrewts than anyone with his patented method. loved to biox. his book is the best crime book ever

Ken Drees writes: 

 The Godfather types will move into cities that let their police forces shutter and then there will be the peace

Jul

10

The learned ignoramus: "Anthony Fauci, the "Learned Ignoramus"

Who else should be put on this list in contrast to useful idiots. The Upside Down Man is on both.

Jun

22

An attractive woman feints and asks Grant who rescued her to lure Grant into a compromising position. Where have we seen that.

Jeff Watson writes: 

Or when Clews described an attempt to get President Grant out of the way so Jay Gould et al could corner the gold market without Grant selling government gold. It didn't work.

Stefan Jovanovich adds: 

Grant's first financial act as President in 1869 was to sign the Public Credit Act of 1869. His first choice for Treasurer had been Alexander Stewart, but Senator Sumner had blocked his nomination and offered his fellow abolitionist, George Boutwell, instead. Grant never wasted time fighting a losing battle so he accepted Boutwell. From the start Grant knew Boutwell would be too much of a financial Puritan. Boutwell accepted the Public Credit Act and shared Grant's understanding that the Congress and the United States Treasury had to return to the Constitutional pledge that the only U.S. money was gold and (for lesser denominations) silver coin. Grant was unshakeable in his determination that the Federal government would never again default on paying its obligations in international money. His own calculation was that the Treasury's deliberate default in the first year of the civil war had increased the total cost, through inflation and increased borrowing, by least a third.

What Grant could not get Boutwell to accept was the simple fact that the country was never going to return to its pre-war balance sheet. The abolitionist dream that the national debt could be largely wiped out if not totally eliminated through confiscation of Southern property was, in Grant's mind, illegal (the Confederate soldiers had been pardoned), immoral (the Constitution did not give Congress the authority to take people's property without compensation) and just plan stupid (it would destroy America's credit and property market for a generation). Boutwell and Sumner should accept the fact that the country now had a debt that would never be paid off. Hamilton's wish had finally been granted. The national debt would be there, in size, forever; and it would be the safe asset that speculators and investors, including foreign holders of dollars, would hold while they waited. In 1869 the interest alone on the Federal debt was TWICE the entire Federal budget in 1861: $130,694,000 vs. $66,547,000. In that period the debt itself has grown from $90,582,000 to $2,545,111,000. The debt could be reduced over time; but it would never again be calculated in millions as opposed to billions.

Black Friday is a big deal in the history books because Garfield and Congress had extensive hearings and the story of "the corner" fit everyone's favorite narrative: politicians were corrupt, the market was manipulated, Grant was a fool, etc. The numbers tell a different story. Jay Gould's bet, at its highest, was $60 million. For the 3 fiscal years since 1866 when the debt peaked at $2,755,764, the average net redemption of debt by the U.S. Treasury was $70 million annually - roughly $6 million a month. Through August 1869 Boutwell had bought in $50 million - the pace of regular redemption. The idea that bribing Grant to withhold $4 million in redemption in September was somehow the key to the corner is laughable. The key to the corner was the belief that Boutwell, Grant's sister's husband and others in the Grant administration could be bought. Boutwell could, in fact, be bought - by his fellow Massachusetts citizen, the King of Shovels, Oakes Ames. (Ames is a fascinating figure who deserves attention.)  Of course, the real story - the one that we will not know - is what were the positions and trades of the serious players on Wall Street during that week. The story Crews and others tell is the one Henry Adams wrote up in 1870; it is still the fundamental narrative that will become "history". That is, to my mind, the biggest laugh of all.

Jun

22

"Understanding Bayes Theory with Ratio"

In the old days we used to learn Bayes theorem in terms of odds ratios. I didn't pay much attention to it till recently until the odds of the invisible man winner reached 56 to 40, and the query is "Is he more likely to beat the incumbent than the incumbent is to beat the cattle trader?" The 40 to 1 in favor of incumbent is abut 25 times as likely as the invisible man is over the incumbent.

May

10

May 9th:

Why can't we all stay at home many unemployed receiving more money then when they were at work with the Fed buying the government debt needed to pay universal bailout and unemployment claims. The answer has something to do with you cant consume what you don't produce it is productivity and things that creates material well being. There is no inequality in a dead economy except for the 20 million gov employees who have permanent jobs. We can have universal equality and misery or incentives to create betterment for the individual and goods (perhaps I could have said this better. Would you help me pleases one thing for sure with universal basic income the dems will have a permanent and insurmountable lock on government.

The foregoing is what Mr. Vince is thinking of as to the economy. But he must realize as I have repeatedly said that the economy rise and fall is quite different from the stock markets. And he must be careful to maintain survivability and not to let one trade destroy the legacy that is his.

From @VicNiederhoffer on twitter

May

10

Has anyone read any good books lately that they can recommend. I reiterate my rec for: The Time it Never Rained by Elmer Kelton and I'd add rec for books by Bernard Cornwell. I just read Waterloo with much learning its a good antidote to chapter on Waterloo in Les Miserables.

Pamela Van Giessen writes: 

Empire of Shadows by George Black about the people who explored the Yellowstone area, all of whom had an impact on the space being made a national park. Some were dark people who ended up doing great things; others were "good" people who did some terrible things, and some were just lame. We are a complex creature. Way too much detail but probably more fascinating American history than you ever got in school.

Indian Creek Chronicles by Pete Fromm about a young man who takes the craziest job in the world on a lark, living for 7 (winter) months in the Idaho backcountry guarding salmon eggs. Great tale of isolation, resiliency, stamina, and ingenuity. 

May

9

May 3rd:

The keys to the game are particularly difficult and diffuse this week.

1. The earnings estimates are more disperse than ever.

2. The companies that reported so far the big five are much more buoyant than the remaining 45% of S&P 500 companies to report.

3. If there is one fly in the ointment. To me it is the fall in real estate prices. To an amazing extent almost all major declines in stocks have been associated with declines in real estate prices since the time of Henry George in the 1880's.

4. With a google of pics of Joe Biden being affectionate with others, it is likely that another victim besides Tara Reade will come forth.

5. Hillary is now 7% like to be the Democratic nominee.

6. With all these cross currents I have looked for one market that will be the canary. I find it in the Japanese Yen.

With every major pharmaceutical company racing to find a treatment or vaccine for the virus, it is likely that there will be other breakthroughs reported in the media. The last one caused the biggest overnight rally ever. Strangely the improvement over the placebo was only 3 days.

More generally many drug therapies provide only a few days or few months improvement over no treatment. Considering the damage to life from side effects of digestion and energy and life style disruption, the cost benefit of many of them has to be negative as is the treatment from Gilead. It is amateurish and typical of Dr. Fauci to say the improvement is statistically significant. And that he always will err on the side of excessive caution.

The pictures of him and the Prez always remind us of Czar Alexander and Rasputin and I still claim he plays the same role as Rasputin in his and his families hoped for demise of the Prez's family.

Others in his peer group are the 95% in the CDC and the swamp that contributed to the Democrats last election. As I asked about the cattle trader what happened to the other $500/ THE OTHER 5%? The news about Peter Strk trying to get Flynn to lie is a terrible example of the battle that the Prez has faced with the samp. What would have happened if during the impeachment trials the Prez had declared a more draconian ban on China? More generally what is the hidden cost of all the productive activities that were lost and not made by the handouts?

I received an urgent method from Mr. Vince. "The worst of the dri is still to come". He looks at volume and pain… I don't agree.

The statistics.

Every gentleman and woman knows that when you kiss someone on the face but not the lips the kiss conveys an invitation for further romance. Presumably that was not unknown to the VP and also that he wasn't always unsuccessful.

A prescient response from a WSJ subscriber: "I suspect that many of the 'reported' Corona Virus deaths in NY Hospitals were really those who died of other major underlying problems, such as obesity, diabetes, heart problems, etc, with CV-19 adding the last straw. A standard autopsy would show this, and the cause of death would not be CV-19. However, in the current panic, the NY Hospitals know they can get $39,000 from Medicare for a CV-19 death, and only $19,000 if the real underlying cause was listed. It's money that is driving the higher CV-19 stats in NYC."

Both Mr. Vince and I were right.

A more traditional version of "I am right and you are right"

Apr

30

Twenty years ago one fourth of all goods sold by the biggest hardware companies in the US were horse, buggy and wagon companies. But how would you like to have remained these twenty years a heavy stockholder in a buggy whip man.

Many years ago the Canal stocks were much in demand the same way google is today. Canal stocks were among the most conservative of investments suitable for widows and orphans. Most people who owned canal stocks put them away and forget about them. These canal stocks shortly started a descent to zero.

Two other great books for seeing the importance of adjusting to the new times are The Time It Never Rained and Monte Walsh. The Kelly book was recommended by Mr. Avella.

Apr

24

One notes that the Dax was down 100 points around noon before the announcement of the unpower. It is amazing that the statistical tests are actually done for real in a case like this. It's a false sense of scientism…. but fortunately the flexions in Europe were able to get the news ahead of the 35 point drop.

Apr

20

It's a shame we don't have Mr. E around any more to put things in perspective. He loved to eat at the weaknesses of atheists and people of different romantic preferences and collectives of all stripe and he would have caught every move in the market the last two months while cornering the soybean crop. I remember I took him out to dinner one evening and there was an attractive younger female with us and he admitted that he controlled the entire soybean crop and had just visited all his holdings on a trip to the Midwest (with his girl friend whose fare back I paid) because she didn't want to wait 3 days for a reduced fare). The attractive female didn't even look at me the whole evening as she was totally fascinated with E.

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