Dec

22

It will be the first time mainstream institutions, such as ETFs, banks etc. are so heavily involved with this asset class if it is repeating the historical pattern.

Cycle 1 (2010 - 2013)
• Peak: December 2013
• Drawdown: 93% from ATH

Cycle 2 (2014 to 2017)
• Peak: December 2017
• Drawdown: ~86-87% from ATH

Cycle 3 (2018 to 2021)
• Peak: November 2021
• Drawdown: ~75-77% from ATH

Cycle 4 (2025 to ???)
• Peak: October
• Drawdown: 30% from ATH for now

If 70-80% drawdown repeats, Bitcoin will be below 40000 and Crypto Treasury geniuses will be meeting with Trump for a bailout! But Who will bailout Trump?


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  1. Andrey on December 23, 2025 8:08 am

    I think you’re correct to point out that this really may be the end of a cycle, but for some reason you didn’t count from 2022 to now.

    In the drawdowns of these past cycles Bitcoin has often touched or went only slighter lower than its past top, that was $67k in 2021.

    BTC will be 17 years old in 11 days. There have been more than ten thousand media articles written about its upcoming demise. Yet not only is it still here, it has grown more than 150% on average per year.

    Keep in mind that the average fiat currency lasts about 27 years and mostly goes to zero in that time. And the ones that haven’t died yet, they keep losing about 4% value per year.

    It’s fully transparent. It’s backed by very awesome math. Borders don’t apply to it, it can be quickly sent anywhere for peanuts and also at midnight during holidays because it works 24/7. The reward to hack it is hundreds of billions of USD, yet it hasn’t happened in 17 years. Its supply cannot be expanded, in practice it even goes down because wallets get lost.

    How old must Bitcoin be before rational people accept its objective reality?

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