Oct

29

Madmen and the 52% level

October 29, 2022 |

much talk about the 1900s custom of touting a stock at its high, and selling out. but the contrition this time is as if it was a first time. What i disagree with is the expression "go woke, go broke" quite the opposite it true as all the big companies that prospered typically by adamantly going against Georgia on their election reform. in general they love regulatory capture which is always greater with more regs. watch out if the house and senate are reversed on Nov 8. it's very bearish. I guess 90% of CEOs now are agrarian.

i guess its only fair to relate that I worked for the repentant Meta Bull for one day before I was fired. my lapse was I said that Galton was the founder of correlation and regression and contingency tables (among other things like weather maps, finger prints, psychometrics, biometrics - i could go on). Fortunately John Markman hired Laurel shortly thereafter and I have infinite respect for him.

if only the golfer celeb were to concentrate on the 30 things that unfairly worked against him before the election, we'd all be so much better off. i'll list them daily: (1) The big pharma that withheld the announcement that they had an effective vaccine until the day after the election.

it is good to have a man in power who is young at heart and hit a 368 baseball single in a congressional game as well as a football star who lettered on the varsity team that beat Ohio state. to say nothing about his prowess in martial arts. He would beat the Hades out of his past opponent if he were still in high school.

two of the most entertaining and boisterous and knowledgeable people in their respective fields are Mad Dog Chris Russo and the always certain but not chastened Jim Cramer (who fired me after one day). It is instructive but not by chance that despite all their erudition, both "madmen" are no better than 50-50 in their frequent predictions. It is not chance that they both approach 50% but part of an inevitable tendency for forecasters to approach and breach the 52% accuracy level needed for profits in sports betting. I believe frequent forecasters in markets don't approach the 52% needed in sports and this is guaranteed to happen by evolution.

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