Mar

8

I made two predictions: that Bush will succeed in Iraq, and that the Democrats, realizing they can't allow that success, will do all they can not to let him. The second one already came true, but after Murtha, Pelosi, Levin, Reid, Reed, Kennedy, Obama, and others gave it their all, and still they failed due to lack of public and conservative Democratic support.

The left wing of the Democratic Party retreated for at least a few weeks and is seeking a face-saving way to pass Bush's supplemental bill without enforcing any kind of real restrictions. The surge in Iraq is working well cutting down the murder rate in Baghdad by 50% in three weeks. Bush is also diverting attention with a regional conference to which Syria and Iran have been invited. He can now claim he is following the bi-partisan ISG recommendations. But with two carrier strike groups in the Persian Gulf, this will further weaken the forces aligned against him, thus guaranteeing a victory in Iraq.

All this makes Giuliani the odds-on favorite to win the Presidency. In the next few weeks he will be attacked for everything from adultery to bad temper, but it will not stick. He will move progressively to the right prior to achieving a primary victory, after which he will move progressively to the left, while appointing an extreme right VP candidate (Gingrich, Tancredo, or Hunter). Neither Hillary nor Obama now have a realistic chance of victory. Gore will be under a lot of pressure to enter the race, as he is currently the only viable Democratic contender. If Gore doesn't enter, Giuliani will win.

All of this is predicated on no bombing campaign against Iran. The odds are about 4:1 that it will not happen based on betting markets. But clearly with Persian Gulf as full of firepower as it has ever been, something may trigger it.


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