Apr

19

Great and sententious discussion of regression by Tredoux in the second volume of his Galton bio (with tremendous applicability to markets):

However the concept of regression to the mean where it has been comprehended at all has led to persistent popular misunderstandings about its nature. Failure to spot regression to the mean recurs so often it seems to be a universal law of human behavior. Examples could be multiplied endlessly. They involve selection of a bad condition to which some intervention is applied after which the condition is observed again. Usually it has improved. Therefore the policy is supposed to work.

Francis Galton's Genius: 1865-1911, page 225

Vic's X/twitter feed

Apr

16

guaranteed to happen: "powell says that they will do what they do regardless of any political pressure." great applauds in the Chicago audience.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Apr

15

Bullish

April 15, 2025 | Leave a Comment

the 5 days after service day bullish. about 4 in 5 up. also bonds bullish in that long time since 20-day high. thus despite attempt to beggar the neighbor and embarrassing unanimity of advisers that trade is bad, the stats say bullish.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Apr

14

Looking back at 2008

April 14, 2025 | 1 Comment

A Few Observations, from Victor Niederhoffer
October 12, 2008

1. Of the 100 biggest markets around the world, almost all are down 40- 60% in dollar terms with the exceptions' being Tunisia and Botswana. The impact of the decline this week, unless rapidly reversed, is going to be very severe on purchases. The previous 20% caused great angst; imagine what this decline will do to those who rely on retirements. The positive feedback of the decline in a negative direction also impacts the election results with every market decline making it more likely the Republicans will be blamed for the situation.

2. The worst aspect of the decline this week from a health point of view was that fixed income around the world cratered, thereby reducing world wealth by a good 15% as opposed to the normal situation where the equities go down 10% and the fixed incomes go up 8% leaving total wealth down only a little. And the people that talked about how bearish it was for stocks because commodities were up would never say that it's bullish now because commodities are down 40% over the past four months.

3. A new word should enter the market vocabulary, a waterboarding decline, being a decline that seems to have a breath of life at the open before going into a death spiral.

4. Because of the decline in all sectors, the wealth/price ratio has stayed relatively constant with corn, copper, soybeans, wheat and oil down 40- 50% since June 30, thereby keeping the number of bushels and barrels we can buy with one DJIA relatively constant, making the number of ounces of gold you can buy with the Dow less than 10 for the first time in a googol, and looking like a bargain for the Dow.

Cagdas Tuna writes:

The plan was to make US assets cheap and make everyone afraid to invest in them(thanks to VIX spike Monday). We all make joke of him but Trump’s post few hours before 90 days pause was the peak. Look at inflation numbers it is officially coming down as most companies were planning this sh*t beforehand. The more we see bad news the bullish stocks are.

David Lillienfeld responds:

You're making the assumption that we're done. I don't know that we are.

Nils Poertner comments:

in any case - def good to watch out for anomalies, or things that shouldn't happen and then they happen - and then there is more of it normally.

Apr

13

i have now finished the brilliant Tredoux bio of Galton. and Tredoux is very Galtonesque in his masterly ability to explicate every area that Galton touched. After 10 years without proper review of Galton, here's a Galtonian example of two geniuses uncovering it at same time.

From 2002, Review of A Life of Sir Francis Galton, author: Nicholas Wright Gillham, reviewer: Gavan Tredoux.

Starting almost from scratch in all the subjects he investigated, Galton invented rigorous intelligence testing, founded experimental psychology in Britain, established the scientific basis for fingerprint identification, formulated the statistical concepts of regression and correlation, pioneered early investigations of genetics, and founded the biometrical school.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Apr

11

I was searching for 'Lobogola' in my saved files… Found this…

Ten Lessons From the Recent Bear Markets, from Victor Niederhoffer
February 3, 2008

1. There is no such thing as a bear market, only markets that have gone down a lot from a previous high in a reasonable time frame.

2. The market had its best week in 5 years two weeks after having the worst week in 5 years.

3. When the vol rises to above 30, expect a 1-2% gain in next two days with say a 90% prob.

4. The differential between the discount rate and the 10 year rate is an excellent predictor of short and long term movements in the market.

5. The market likes to set a big minimum at the beginning of the week and all the limits downs have occurred on such days.

6. The knowledge of a big forced seller in the market will filter out and effect everything and the market will go to unprecedented low levels until the sales are requited.

7. The Fed chair thanked Milton Friedman for insuring with his research that the Fed would never again cause a depression by tightening the money supply during a time of economic doldrum and we may thank Milton Friedman and the Fed chair, and Mr Kerviel for insuring that no such depression or recession will be induced again by such activity.

8. The market will go back up along the same path that it went down, i.e. Lobagola lives. (Remember Lobagola's story about the elephants). [More on Lobagola and the elephants below. -Ed.]

9. Buy and hold must not be leveraged too high for it to work.

10. The tried and true patterns are the most dangerous during times of crisis. (Beware of patterns with a 90% chance of success).

Scalawags: Bata Kindai Amgoza ibn LoBagola

But his assumed name lives on amongst the lore of investors. In his book, he tells the story of an elephant stampede. The beasts rush through an area and always return the same way. When there is a surge of the market that soon ceases and comes back again down that same path, that’s called a LoBagola.

Apr

9

20-day highs

April 9, 2025 | Leave a Comment

now 49 days away from last 20-day high on 2-19, 2025 at 6166 (futures). 98% chance that next 20-day high will exceed the old level. expected duration to next exceedance is 12 days.

good example of stock market being the key driver. approval rating dropped to 41% with one 20-day low in stocks after another. someone, a rare bird among advisers, told him to cut the crazy tariff policies.

nice drop in vix of 19 points from 52 to 33. apparently all weak longs were done in.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Apr

7

As we write in mid-2002, surrounded by pessimism, our view is that the required return for holding stocks is at levels unseen since 1990, or 1980, or 1950, when memories of depressions or crashes were still hanging in the air. If ever there were a time that investors would only buy risky investments when the anticipated returns were in the 50 percent-and-over area, this time would seem to be now. We see no reason that our expectations will be disappointed. Why shouldn't an improvement in lifespan or the rules of the game of business reap in the next 50 years the kind of results that greeted investors in the past 50?

Practical Speculation, by Victor Niederhoffer and Laurel Kenner, page 215

Apr

6

the most important influencer of all, the stock market was the only indicator that the Fed Chair didn't discuss in his Friday talk to the editors.

one can expect the opposition at the Fed to double down on the unnecessity of lowering rates in order to punch the enemy when he is down and to increase their importance to staying.

left out in the damaging consequences of tariffs is their increase in the likelihood of war only too often lead to open hostility and armed conflict. For historical confirmation of this fact we need but review the Russo-German "tariff war" of 1893, the German-Spanish tariff war of 1894, the Franco-Italian tariff war of 1888-1899 and the Franco-Swiss tariff war, 1893-1895. The Austro-Hungarian tariff barriers to Serbian exports aggravated the nationalistic conflict between Serbia and Austria-Hungary and precipitated the World War. Economic conflicts and divergence of economic interests.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Apr

4

Milton Friedman on Trade Balance and Tariffs

Why Some People Will Never Admit They're Wrong

• The inability to apologize can stem from trying to maintain an idealized image of oneself to avoid shame.

• Refusal to apologize can result from the misguided belief that we shouldn’t have to since we weren't at fault.

• Conviction that no apology is needed can stem from a lack of self- and relational-awareness.

one of the many virtues of Tredoux's book on Galton is the way he generalizes from Galton's observations to make universal points.

This is a striking instance of the obstructions through which new ideas have to force their way. Plain facts are apprehended in a moment but the introduction of a new idea is quite another matter for it requires an alteration in the attitude and balance of the mind.

the quote is Galton's but my compliment to Mr. Tredoux is true.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Apr

2

Tariffs Are Awful, but the Income Tax May Be Worse

Every fiber of my economic being cries out against tariffs. If they are so good, why doesn’t each state in the US have one against the products of all of the other 49? That is, Ohio could “protect” its industries against the incursions from Arizona. This is obviously silly. One of the important reasons America is so prosperous is that we have a gigantic, internal, free trade area.

[ … ]

So is there any economic case for tariffs, given the foregoing? Yes, paradoxically, there is—in a way, if the alternative is a tax that’s even worse.

Larry Williams comments:

Tariffs are what made America so powerful when instituted by Hamilton. It’s all about what you place them on Hamilton did it with brilliance.

Stefan Jovanovich responds:

I think more credit goes to Thomas Willing, the President of the Bank of the United States. He understood that tariffs would allow the United States to conduct the same wonderful sleight-of-hand that allowed the national Money to be gold and silver coin while the actual currency became bank notes. The Chair's question - if tariffs are so great, why doesn't every state have them - was answered by the Federal Constitution, which took away from the States the power to issue their own bills of credit as legal tender and the power to regulate interstate commerce. As LW and the Chair both note, it was the ability of the United States to have an ever-growing domestic market that made the U.S. so powerful. People were willing to bring their "real" money to the U.S. to speculate in what is still the largest open market in the world AS LONG AS THEY HAD THE ABILITY TO PICK UP THEIR CHIPS AND TAKE THEIR MONEY HOME. Apologies for the SHOUTING but every "crash" has had as its catalyst the threat that the U.S. would impose capital controls - either directly or by depreciating the dollar by executive order.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Mar

31

An insightful section of Mr. Tredoux's Francis Galton's Nature and Nurture: 1822-1865 shows that the poor forecasts and poor scientific methods of Robert Fitzroy, as uncovered by Galton, probably led to his suicide. Let us hope that a similar fate does not await some of the useful idiots and bears recounted in my posts.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Mar

28

usually one is accustomed to a political news effecting stocks but now after 50 days form a 20-day high and only 2 pts from a 50-day low at 5579 on march 13, we can expect stocks to effect politics. another decline in sp will create tariff easing.

Single trunks grow at a rate determined by the species of tree and the care it gets. Multi-trunks have seperate root systems and since they are close together, they compete for nutrients. This competition results in slower growth rates….Since they compete, multi-trunk trees grow 30% to 50% slower than singles trunk trees of the same species. Despite a slower growth rate, these trees can still flourish with attention and care.

Heritage Tree Service of Texas

a single trunk tree grows considerably faster than a multitrunk tree. is the same true for stocks? a test will answer this.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Mar

28

The late baseball great studied hitting as closely as a stock strategist studies markets. In fact, Williams' hitting rules can easily make you a better investor.
By Victor Niederhoffer and Laurel Kenner

"Get a good ball to hit."
– Rogers Hornsby to Ted Williams, on the single most important thing for a hitter.

A person, a field, a book. Sometimes they come together with such genius that you wish to carry the lessons around and apply them to everything you do. Such is the case with Ted Williams’ "The Science of Hitting," widely considered the definitive book on the subject. With the baseball season soon starting, the market reeling and investors searching for a rudder, it seems particularly appropriate to learn from the book’s timeless lessons for all fields. But we’ll go even further. We’ll show how to use this method to make a profit by trading IBM (IBM, news, msgs) and similar biggies on Thursdays, when the count is right.

Williams was the last batter to achieve the magic .400 average in a full season — 1941, when he hit .406. (He also had .400 averages in 1952 and 1953, when his seasons were cut dramatically short because of Korean War service.) He is considered one of the three best hitters ever, with Babe Ruth and Rogers Hornsby. “I had to be doing something right,” he said. “And for my money the principal something was being selective.”

His selectivity was unique and inspiring. He divided the 4.6-square-foot batter’s box into 77 zones, and assigned each a hitting percentage. The sweet spot was high over the middle of the plate, where the batting average hit .400.

Rule No. 1: Wait for your pitch

Warren Buffett cited "The Science of Hitting" in his 1998 annual report in a discussion of his favorite subject: How the market doesn’t look good to him. (His most recent annual report, published Saturday, repeats the sentiment.) Buffett said he, like Williams, follows Rule 1 and waits for the great pitches — the great companies — and holds his fire until they arise.

After Rule 1, we will expand the list of hitting rules to 11, drawing from the lessons in Williams’ book.

Read the full article.

Mar

25

We were younger

March 25, 2025 | Leave a Comment

i had the privilege of sitting at the actual Galton desk and a secretary was using it. Jensen and I complained about the sacrilege, and the secretary moved to a modern desk. I noted there in Galton's library a well-read copy of the 1st edition of Wealth of Nations.

we were younger:

Someone in a Tree - Stereo - Pacific Overtures - Original Broadway Cast

Vic's X/twitter feed

Mar

24

Vic's X/twitter feed

Mar

23

Dear Mr. Tredoux : I am now through p. 157 of the first volume of your bio of Galton, Francis Galton's Nature and Nurture: 1822-1865. I have never found a life more interesting than yours of Galton. Even though I had read all books and previous bios of Galton I found new material on every page.(i never know he played fives and could throw)

congrats Mr. Tredoux on the Homeric epic you wrote. I particularly admired the way you followed up every mention of people Galton met until 30 with their subsequent fate and fame.

I am sure Mr. Tredoux that many of my friends now departed (like Arthur Jensen) would have enjoyed and learned from your book as I did ( with many questions and follow up still to be.

Perhaps you will cover it later but I still have not seen the answer to why Galton did not have children. (was it the few moments of Pleasure that he experienced on his Islamid travels at age 25?)

Vic's X/twitter feed

Mar

19

A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.

- Robert A. Heinlein

best for stocks, now 20 days since ATH.
UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2024
Leveraging deep history to navigate the future
Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, Mike Staunton

one has been reading of the Lunar Society and the early childhood of Francis Galton in the fascinating and magnificent book Francis Galton's Nature and Nurture: 1822-1865. one of my favorite books of all time.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Mar

14

Nicholas Wright Gillham
A Life of Sir Francis Galton: From African Exploration to the Birth of Eugenics
Oxford University Press, 2001

Reviewed by Gavan Tredoux, August 2002

This is only the third full-length biography of the eminent Victorian scientist and polymath Sir Francis Galton (1822-1911). Remarkably, it is the first in quarter of a century. Galton was the product of a distinguished lineage, with men of marked ability in every one of ten preceding generations. He had first made a name as an African explorer and meteorologist, active in the affairs of the Royal Geographical Society. Late in life, inspired by his half-cousin Charles Darwin, he went on to found the scientific study of heritability, which soon encompassed differential psychology, anthropology, genetics, criminology, statistical methods, and eugenics. Starting almost from scratch in all the subjects he investigated, Galton invented rigorous intelligence testing, founded experimental psychology in Britain, established the scientific basis for fingerprint identification, formulated the statistical concepts of regression and correlation, pioneered early investigations of genetics, and founded the biometrical school. Financially secured by a legacy from his moderately wealthy father, he might have followed so many of his contemporaries into comfortable idleness. Instead he chose the career of a “gentleman scientist”, and would on his death endow his well-managed legacy to further research in the areas that interested him.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Mar

12

The Invisible Hand, First Edition
by John Eatwell (Editor), Murray Milgate (Editor), Peter K. Newman (Editor)

Covers Smith, Bentham, Hobbes, Hume, Locke, and Mill, as well as collective action, economic freedom, individualism, and property rights.

The Highlite of a trip to Berkeley: Moe's Books

Moe Moskowitz opened the doors of Moe’s Books in 1959, and so established one of America’s preeminent independent bookstores, a favorite destination for book-loving locals and tourists alike. Now boasting an inventory of over 200,000 new, used, and rare selections, Moe’s was noted by the New York Times in 2008 as the bookstore where “those in the know still all head.” Moe revolutionized the predigital used book business by establishing buying policies that ensured a trust with his customers: the highest prices would be assured when they brought their books to his store. Moe may be gone, but his policies and store remain very much alive today.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Mar

6

Examples of disruptive behavior in animals

like disruptive behavior in markets.

yale opponent who tried to kill me - ancestors surrendered to George Washington.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Mar

5

"the search for a foolproof system is in vain. there will never be a foolproof system." - vn and tw.

very good advice from bacon and all speculators and gamblers:

Some amateur players carry inconsistency to such a degree that they demand consistency from the horses, while at the same time being utterly inconsistent in their methods of play. It's not the races that beat these players — it's the switches!

Racing is simple. Everything about the game is logical and common sense and elementary. All the figuring and the mathematics and the mechanics of racing can be understood by a child in junior-high school. But the game is decked out in an endless number of minor contradictions and open switches and deadfall traps, in order to lure the average player into doing everything wrong .

If the average player — the public play — kept out of all these switches and traps, then the powers-that-be would have to make the game far more complicated in order to insure the fact that the majority of players (as we learned in a previous chapter) continue to lose and thus continue to furnish money to keep up the game.

The amateurs who play so carelessly and who fall into all the wrong switches, do not stop to consider the percentages of their rightful losses. When an amateur goes to the track and loses nine bets (eight races and a daily double) and loses all his capital for the day, he has lost many times what the percentage calls for. He has no right to lose so much. It's almost as if he did it on purpose!

- Secrets of Professional Turf Betting

and just when you are ready to give up at the bottom or top, get ready for a change.

as you get nearer the King's row, you remember all your victories vividly (whether they happened or not).

ratio of Europeans like dax to sp at an all time hi.

I remember my 6 gold rackets (an important tourney in my day where my opponent tried to kill me by hitting at my head just when he was about to lose) which reminds me of the turn around in sp today.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Feb

23

Active Trader Magazine, March 2004
The Volatility-Market Connection
By Victor Niederhoffer and Laurel Kenner

Is everything you know about volatility wrong? Find out what history says about the volatility-market relationship — and what the VIX is saying about the stock market’s 2004 prospects.

Volatility is a crucial variable every market participant needs to consider. For speculators, volatility determines how much money to place on each trade relative to initial stake and stop point. For investors, it determines how much to allocate between stocks and bonds, and how much to invest for a secure retirement. For academics, volatility is one blade of the scissors in the fundamental theorem of finance — namely, that expected return is linearly related to volatility.

The article contains a sidebar that begins, "Dr. Hui Guo is one of the most respected and prolific authors in volatility research. Reading some of his articles sparked our quest." Dr. Guo was a senior research economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is currently at U Cincinnati.

Here is one of Dr. Guo's recent research papers:

Taylor Rule Monetary Policy and Equity Market Risk Premia
Hui Guo, University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate
Saidat Sanni, University of Cincinnati
Yan Yu, University of Cincinnati - Lindner College of Business
Posted: 12 Nov 2024, Last revised: 6 Nov 2024

The Fed mainly uses the federal funds rate (FFR) to achieve its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. Recent asset pricing models argue that changes in FFR affect equity market risk premia. Consistent with this financial condition channel of monetary transmission, the Fed's macroeconomic needs estimated using the Taylor (1993) rule negatively predict stock market returns. They are also identified as a crucial equity premium determinant along with the scaled market price and conditional market variance via variable selection analyses. The linear multifactor equity premium model has remarkably stable predictive power, outperforming machine learning and other prediction techniques.

Feb

21

Good day(s)

February 21, 2025 | Leave a Comment

A good day -1.6% to start another break of all-time hi with dax and bonds moving to great support and foundation.

Those were the days:

NY Squash Legend: Victor Niederhoffer, Storied American Player of the 60’s and 70’s
And Steely Rival to International Legend Sharif Khan

A five-time winner of the U. S. Nationals and one of only seven American-born players to capture the most coveted crown of hardball squash, the North American Open, Victor Niederhoffer is very near the top of the list of squash’s most significant figures and intriguing personalities. His rivalry with Sharif Khan during the mid-1970’s defined that crucial era in the sport’s evolution and played a determinate role in the formation and rise to prominence of the professional hardball tour that had such an impressive run in the following decade.

Part of what made Niederhoffer’s ascent to the top echelon of the sport so compelling is the degree to which his background and self-presentation differed from the norm during the era in which he competed. Unlike the large majority of America’s best college and amateur players—almost all of whom by the time they entered college had learned the game either in junior programs at exclusive private clubs or while attending prestigious New England prep schools (and in many cases from fathers who themselves had been active squash players)—Niederhoffer, the son of a Brooklyn cop, had never played squash prior to entering Harvard in September 1960. His sole previous exposure to wall games had been to those that were played at the Brighton Beach Baths, a sports complex located near the Niederhoffer's home near Coney Island. This complex featured more than 20 one-wall handball courts and was known as the mecca for that sport.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Feb

19

Finally an ATH after 20 days of feinting and following the intellectual and second handed who hate Wealth.

The Origins of Value: The Financial Innovations That Created Modern Capital Markets is a beautiful and informative book that traces the development of all current financial instruments and institutions to their origins especially in Holland in the 16th century.

From the invention of interest in Mesopotamia and the origin of paper money in China, to the creation of mutual funds, inflation-indexed bonds, and global financial securities, here is a sweeping survey of financial innovations that have changed the world. Written by a distinguished group of experts - including Robert Shiller, Niall Ferguson, Valerie Hansen, and many others - The Origins of Value traces the evolution of finance through 4,000 years of history.

the chapter Origins of the NYSE by Richard Sylla is the best illumination to the forces that led to American Capitalism from the 18th century to today, completely enthralling and informative. The whole book is one of the best I've ever read of the thousands I've read on this subject.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Feb

17

Very bullish

February 17, 2025 | Leave a Comment

refusal [on Friday] to go last 20 pts for a.t.h very bull.

The Mountain Shadow, sequel to Shantaram, is a set of contrived incidents of violence and corruption with made up characters. I gave up on it after 500 pages when a ridiculous financial coup involving the fictional Karla was so fake.

Christy Mathewson once beat world checker champion Newell Banks in a game of checkers.  he liked to angle the board after a game and then review the baseball game with checkers being the players.

The Player: Christy Mathewson, Baseball, and the American Century

Vic's X/twitter feed

Feb

16

1. Never try to make money the same way twice in a row.

2. Don't trade inactive markets.

3. Don't assume that the relation between your two favorite markets will stay the same from year to year.

4. Be alert to big minimums on Monday as they tend to reverse.

5. Try not to sell markets that have big drifts upwards like stocks.

6. Try to go with with the central banks.

7. Be one with the idea that has the world in its grip and be on the side of the market that will further that grip.

8. Never go for small profits as the vig is too great relative to your gain as a %.

9. Don't trade when a loved one is very sick.

10. Round numbers will be broken.

11. For example, play the yen to break 100 and the S&P to break 16000 and Apple to swing from below 400.

12. Gold has been a store of value for a long time. When it gets hit hard, think of all the people in the world and the institutions that use it for insurance.

13. Don't sell premium in the grains as they move explosively.

14. Never trade so that you exceed your margin. (You will have to get out at the close unless it moves in your favor and that makes you weak).

15. Don't listen to tips or try to follow fast moving operators as you won't know when they are going to change positions and how strong and on what basis their views are made.

16. Let your profits run after you have a big loss and get back to even sell to the sleeping point.

17. Don't take positions that you plan to extricate from in inactive trading hours.

18. After or just before a major announcement don't use limits.

19. Only buy the worst markets or stocks at the end of a quarter or year.

20. Never trade when you're out of the office or on vacation or on a whim.

21. Beware of trading when the market is going to be closed and you will not be able to extricate from your position like European markets when they close for a month around Christmas.

22. Don't short big up opens.

Okay, that's a start. Hopefully, I am more adept at this kind of thing a trader should know than I am at the things a man should know.

- posted by Vic, 29 April, 2013

Feb

12

Squeakers?

February 12, 2025 | Leave a Comment

an interesting study that shows that buying relative strength gives superior returns - consistent with all other studies on ssrn:

Relative strength over investment horizons and stock returns

do similar studies show that betting on squeaker winners in baseball and football are losers? does betting against squeaker winners work in baseballl, football, and markets?

Tom Wisell: "sometimes it is the move you didn't make that beats you rather than the move you did make."

Vic's X/twitter feed

Feb

10

Gambler: Secrets from a Life at Risk, by Billy Walters. A spectacle of compulsive gambling in every field by a very flawed individual with a template of ever changing factors that influence football betting.

Andrew Moe agrees:

Would also recommend Gambler, by Walters - in particular for the two chapters where he details his method of handicapping NFL games. He uses a variety of factors to build his own line and compares that to the public line. The bigger the difference, the bigger the bet. Lots of quantitative factors, for example being the home team on a Thursday night game is worth 0.4 spread points. If home and away have different playing surfaces (grass/turf), it's worth 0.2 spread points. A great team coming off a bye and away is worth 1.6 points - if they are home off a bye, it's worth 1.4 pts.

Big Al writes:

I have read various pieces re online sports betting recently. I also have been listening to season 4 of Michael Lewis's podcast, Against the Rules, which is all about sports betting.

The podcast reinforces points made by others, the main one being that Draft Kings and Fan Duel weed out the winners and allow only losers to make bets. Pros try to find ways around this, but amateurs are just suckers. Also, thanks to software, the system is largely automatic.

When I compare this to markets, I think of market makers on one side, and retail traders on the other, along with the whole ecology of touts that try to get retail's attention and make you think you should be buying this or selling that.

One specific bit from the Lewis podcast I thought was interesting: A pro was talking about prop bets on individual player performance and he said that people like to see things happen as opposed to not happen, so usually betting the under is advantageous because the over is over bet.

Asindu Drileba comments:

I think the days of the bookies are numbered. I am confident the future of sports betting rests in prediction markets like Khalshi, Poly Market, Smarkets etc. The odds will be better, will change in real time, and best of all, there will be no need to kick out winners. It will be like the futures market.

Only two reasons why bookies still exist: 1. The infrastructure for these "Event Derivatives" has not yet been built. 2. Regulatory hurdles.

Big Al offers:

A very interesting deep read:

Why prediction markets aren’t popular, by Nick Whitaker & J. Zachary Mazlish:

Rather than regulation, our explanation for the absence of widespread prediction markets is a straightforward demand-side story: there is little natural demand for prediction market contracts, as we observe in practice. We think that you can classify people who trade on markets into three groups, but each is largely uninterested in prediction markets.

Savers: who enter markets to build wealth. Prediction markets are not a natural savings device. They don’t attract money from pensions, 401(k)s, bank deposits, or brokerage accounts.

Gamblers: who enter markets for thrills. Prediction markets are not a natural gambling device, due to various factors including their long time horizons and often esoteric topics. They rarely attract sports bettors, day traders, or r/WallStreetBets users.

Sharps: who enter markets to profit from superior analysis. Without savers or gamblers, sharps who might enter the market to profit off superior analysis are not interested in participating. They also largely don’t need prediction markets to hedge their other positions.

Update: Asindu Drileba remains confident:

I see the article was written in May 2024. Towards the US presidential election, close to $2B in real money was placed on Polymarket. Polymarket is extremely difficult to use (you need to buy the right crypto, install the proper wallet, just to get it working). Last year Americans spent $100+ Billion on sports betting.

Sports betting books can simply be restructured to work by having their odds computed by a prediction market and not bookies. It would also be the best way to buy insurance. On say hurricanes, earthquakes, fires. I see a lot of catastrophe insurance gravitating towards prediction markets.

If someone asked me. "What trillion dollar business is no one building?" I would respond, "A well done prediction market." Trust me, the demand is there.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Feb

9

For those who don't have a statistical mind or who have not been exposed to card games or gambling, the possibility of a random explanation for many phenomena is hard to grasp. Simply put, what we observe in real life is a sample from a population. Even if the sample is random, the mean of the values observed from the sample is likely to differ from the population mean. The differences observed for many market phenomena are merely due to sampling variations resulting from the large number of samples taken and the high variability within the population.

Consider, for example, the world famous Superbowl indicator. Germany watches it like a hawk. If the winner of America's Superbowl is a team that hailed originally from the NFL, the signal is bullish. If a team originally from the AFL wins, the signal is bearish. The moves in stocks in the 12 months following the NFL and AFL wins are enumerated and summarized in table 3.3.

The results are striking. The total change in the DJIA during the 12 months following victories by teams originally in the NFL has been 4412.08. The average change is 259 Dow points. During years when AFL teams were victorious, the total DJIA change has been -7.3. Reviewing the average ranks of changes in the Dow with respect to the two origins of winners, it turns out that differences as large as these could be explained by chance only once in 300 occurrences. But how many different sporting events could be served as a benchmark predictor with equal plausibility? The World Series, the NBA Championship, the NHL Stanley Cup, the New Year's Day bowl games, or the won-lost record of the Chicago Bulls or the New York Yankees over a single season? Each of the winners might provide an independent prediction of the Dow. Reformulating the question: Since 1967, what are the chances that, in five major annual sporting events, the win by one of the 10 competitors will be associated with the DJIA's rising at least 250 points in that year? The answer, determined by simulation, turns out to be about 1/2. And if not predictive of the Dow, how do bonds match up with the winners?

The Superbowl analysis shows why the random walk or efficient markets model is often consistent with many of the effects found by technical analysts or the more dressed up retrospective anomalies of the academics.

When people ask me whether markets are random, I feel as I did when people asked me who, in my opinion, was the best squash player of all time. "Jack Barnaby, my coach," I always replied.

- The Education of a Speculator, pages 78-82.

Feb

7

As we get older, we remember all our victories whether they happened or not. -Tom Wiswell (and many older men).

T.W. again: At 83, I've lived life. I've done my work. Now I will take my hat and go.

Andrew Carnegie: A Hero of Capitalism

Andrew Carnegie’s life, if conceived by an imaginative novelist, would be difficult to believe. It is perhaps the greatest example of an individual rising from “rags to riches” via talent and productive effort, a rise enabled by the essentially free market system of 19th-century America.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Jan

31

in reading The Origin of Species yesterday along with Scribners 1895 concerning the evolution of the bicycle industry to cars and airplanes I was struck with how the transformation of industries was similar to the move of varieties to species.

Having always had this mild mania for flying, I was much impressed a few years ago when some one said to me: “If you want to come as near flying as we are likely to get in this generation, learn to ride a pneumatic bicycle.” Then I began for the first time to take a serious interest in the bicycle upon which my eldest boy was so fond of scurrying around the country; and today I am only too willing to say all that I can in its favor. When one begins to tell why the bicycle is one of the great inventions of the century, it is hard to begin, because there is so much to say. A bicycle is better than a horse to ninety-nine men and women out of a hundred, because it costs almost nothing to keep, and it is never tired.

- Philip G. Hubert, Jr., in Scribners 1895.

apparently this subject has been well researched:

The Evolution of Industry 1.0 to 4.0 and Beyond

People have been revolutionizing the production and manufacturing industry for as long as mankind has been around. The changing of items being made and distributed in the home to transitioning to them being mass manufactured and distributed using machines and new technology is what we call the Industrial Revolution. There are four main Industrial Revolutions: coal, gas, electronics and nuclear, and currently the internet and renewable energy. These are also known as Industry 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, and currently 4.0. At the rate technology and knowledge is going though, is an Industry 5.0 soon to follow? If so when and what will that entail? Let’s look into each Industry and see how they have each helped shape and create the next.

the best description I can think of for the way the sp attempted to break the round at 6100 and waited to do so decisively was the way Jimmy Jacobs played handball, waiting 30 shots to hit a killer. can you think of a better example?

Vic's X/twitter feed

Jan

30

Some recently discovered proverbs of Tom Wiswell that apply to markets:

1. Often by the time the opening is over what is going to happen in the ending is already happening and cannot be reversed.

2. It isn't only the number of games you win that counts. It's the number of drawn games you don't try to win. In short, don't overplay a slight edge.

3. All the wins and draws must be in your head before they can be at your fingertips (or else how can you beat those who beat you to the price and pay 1/10 of commissions as you - VN).

4. Some players study too much and play too little. Unless you are an isolated player in the country, you should play and study in equal parts. Studying is the planning, play is the doing.

5. Games in commerce are usually won or lost in the first 10 minutes (moves). Have a good plan.

6. Take a writing pad with you and record your game. Go over the games - especially the losses - or you'll surely repeat them.

Tom Wiswell says that the greatest influences on his career were having his father reading Tom Sawyer to him.

Here is the DailySpec archive of Wiswell's proverbs.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Jan

28

An anecdote which gave me a lot of pleasure: Darwin wrote the origin in 1868 and in 1869 there was tremendous fervor and a meeting of 1000 people at the British Museum was called. Huxley as a defender of the evolutionists cause was persuaded to attend. Bishop Wilberforce was there. Professor Henslow was the chairman. The then Admiral Fitz-Roy, still and ardent fundamentalist was there. Darwin was absent. The Bishop spoke for half an hour and ridiculed Darwin and Huxley "but all in such dulcet tones, so persuasive a manner, and in such well-turned periods." However, the bishop showed himself to be quite ignorant of the details of Darwin's book and said, "I should like to ask Prof Huxley, who is sitting by me and is about to tear me to pieces when I have sat down, as to his belief in being descended from an ape. It is on his grandfather's or his grandmother's side that the ape ancestry comes in?"

The bishop concluded with the point that Darwin's ideas ran counter to the revelations of god in the scriptures. Huxley was reluctant to reply but eventually he said, "I am here only in the interest of science and I have not heard anything which can prejudice the case of my august client." He then demonstrated the bishop's poor understanding of Darwin's thesis and concluded with a reference to his descent from a monkey. "I asserted and I repeat that a man has no reason to be ashamed of having an ape for his grandfather. If there were an ancestor whom I should feel shame in recalling, it would be a man, a man of restless and versatile intellect, who not content with an equivocal success in his own sphere of activity, plunges into scientific questions with which he has no real acquaintance, only to obscure them by an aimless rhetoric and distract the attention of his hearers for the real point at issue by eloquent digressions and skilled appeals to religious prejudice."

The Bishop's remarks remind of chronic bear of the stock market and other useful idiots that I have not refrained from quoting.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Jan

25

Teller of tales

January 25, 2025 | Leave a Comment

the book Teller of Tales: The Life of Arthur Conan Doyle depicts an energetic man with many talents, many of them shared with Sherlock himself.

This compelling biography examines the extraordinary life and strange contrasts of Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, the struggling provincial doctor who became the most popular storyteller of his age when he created Sherlock Holmes. From his youthful exploits aboard a whaling ship to his often stormy friendships with such figures as Harry Houdini and George Bernard Shaw, Conan Doyle lived a life as gripping as any of his adventures.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Jan

23

Biological Evolution

Price on evolution is a beautiful informative book that every person interested in markets should read. magnificent summary of the three main stepping stones in Darwin's discovery: Lyell's Geology, voyage of beagle, study of Galápagos.

Here is Price's summary of what Darwin would say: "variation between individuals occurs in all species and is caused by the variability of environments to which a population is exposed - the slight variation that benefits an individual in its struggle for existence enables it to survive longer and reproduce more successfully than others." apply this to markets especially stocks.

Carder Dimitroff writes:

For those interested in historical details, Charles Darwin credited William Charles Wells as one of his precursors in natural selection and biological evolution.

[Wells] distinctly recognises the principle of natural selection, and this is the first recognition which has been indicated.

- Origin of Species, 4th edition

Stefan Jovanovich offers:

Pioneer of Natural Selection: William Charles Wells of Charleston

Vic's X/twitter feed

Jan

20

Price gouging

January 20, 2025 | Leave a Comment

price gouging - This week’s news affirms earlier reports from all of human history that price controls discourage producers, reduce supply and impose shortages that cause consumer suffering (wsj).

In Praise of Price Gouging
When demand far outstrips supply, unfettered prices are just what we need.

We should praise price gouging, not ban it. Yes, we should pass a new federal price gouging law—one that nullifies the many state laws prohibiting it.

The Problem with Price Gouging Laws
Is optimal pricing during an emergency unethical?

Many people feel price gouging is morally wrong. The remarks of newspaper columnists and state legislators provide ready evidence on this topic. Survey research by Daniel Kahneman, Jack Knetsch, and Richard Thaler, published in the American Economic Review, further establishes this point: most respondents found price increases during difficult times to be unfair, except in cases in which retailers were only passing along cost increases.

More recent research suggests that these unfairness judgments are driven primarily by emotional responses to the price increases. Careful examination of the ethics of price gouging raises questions for these emotion-driven judgments. The ethical case for limiting price gouging is weaker than it may appear.

The Speculator As Hero

Vic's X/twitter feed

Jan

17

Cold outside (and in)

January 17, 2025 | 1 Comment

In Galton's autobiography of 1909 he discussed a time in his Rutland London address when he felt it necessary to wear 15 articles of clothing to keep himself warm as there was no heat in his house. two of his prized monkeys died in that cold.

I had a similar experience in Conn on Thur Jan 16; the temperature dropped to 5 Fahrenheit and I had no heat nor a wife as she was in London. I froze all over. In a similar event in Chicago 65 years ago my pet Macaque died from the cold.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Jan

16

the hope of the bears was that jan 31 close would be LOWER than dec 31 close of 5935 so they could tout the Jan barometer showing bear and they could attribute it to their feminine champion not being there to raise service rates.

a good book by a good man:

My Years with General Motors, by Alfred P. Sloan, Jr.

My Years with General Motors became an instant best seller when it was first published in 1963. It has since been used as a manual for managers, offering personal glimpses into the practice of the "discipline of management" by the man who perfected it. This is the story no other businessman could tell - a distillation of half a century of intimate leadership experience with a giant industry and an inside look at dramatic events and creative business management.

but how the divisions survived with all those reports and restrictions one doesn't know. perhaps this is why they needed a bailout in 2008.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Jan

14

"i see you referenced technical analyst as a job that might vanish in the next 50 years. How could you say that when Stanley Druckenmiller sold out his longs in Oct 1987 because the months of 1987 were similar to 1929?" and Bill Gross has been bear since 1950 Dow 800.

don quixote part 1, chapter 47: "it is you who are crazy not me for failing to see the value of moving averages and fibonacci series and head and shoulder patterns. even andy lo has found them significant as long as you don't consider the last 10 or 20 prices."

"have you not read Technical Analysis by John Magee? it you had the pleasure of seeing his 20 or so wize old men with slide rules and protractors following the trends and moving averages as I did in 1964 you wouldn't dare to question its staying power."

Mite I suggest that Dr. Magee's former headquarters in springfield mass 1 block away from Pembroke College be named as a National Monument and that he and his band of Brothers be placed in the t.a. Hall of Fame with the full honors that were accorded to Joe Granville.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Jan

13

Assessing causes

January 13, 2025 | Leave a Comment

an excellent study explaining moves of over 2.5% in all markets attributing the moves to monetary factors:

What Triggers Stock Market Jumps?
Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis and Marco Sammond, 9 December 2024

We examine next-day newspaper accounts of large daily jumps in 19 national stock markets to assess their proximate cause, clarity as to cause, and geographic source. Our sample of over 8,000 jumps, reaching back to 1900 for the United States, yields several novel findings. First, news about monetary policy and government spending triggers twice as many upward jumps as downward ones and a highly disproportionate share of all upward jumps. Second, upward jumps due to monetary policy and government spending are much more frequent after a stock market crash. In this sense, the “Fed put” emerged decades before the 1990s, extends to other central banks, and characterizes fiscal policy as well. Third, greater perceived clarity about the reason for a jump foreshadows lower market volatility. Clarity trends up over the past century and is unusually high for jumps triggered by monetary policy. Fourth, leading newspapers attribute 38 percent of jumps in their own national stock markets to US economic and policy developments. The US role in this regard dwarfs that of Europe and China.

daily moves of 2.5% in the HBS study but explanations of reasons for moves are retrospective and can't be objective. its a "monetary" reason rather than ineluctable random reason following a major decline.

one was looking for research on the fate of markets. one believes that underneath the upward drift of 10000 % per 125 years there is a fate factor that brings markets to fates like 100000 in bitcoin and 50000 in dji, 7000 in sp.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Jan

8

Winning Ugly, reviewed by Vic

After my recent writings on such things as social insects, evolution, cladification, hydraulics, technology, roulette, marketing, herding, communication theory, herding, piracy, military strategy and opera, I felt it was high time to return to the one thing that I really know about — the lessons from racquet sports. Thus, it was a pleasure to come across the 1993 book on the mental game of tennis, Winning Ugly by Brad Gilbert and Steve Jamison. We all have much to learn from any book by a player who beat Conners and was confronted by him in the locker room afterward in his jockstrap shouting, "You shouldn't be on the same court with me!" and whose victory over McEnroe prompted McEnroe vow to quit the game forever at the age of 27 (and actually do so for six months) or who beat Boris Becker while Becker cursed in German about the humidity and the low-flying planes.

Indeed, the subject of the lessons from games is one of the most valuable for all specinvestors because games are developed to teach us through childhood play the universal things that will help us become competent in our life. To keep it simple, here are 11 useful lessons that I learned from Winning Ugly:

1. Keep the eye on the ball. Gilbert recommends forgetting about the player and following the ball on the serve. I tried it and found that it gives you a split second of extra starting time that is key to proper positioning. I would suggest that this is analogous to watching the open rather than the call. So often , we wait for that great or terrible opening call to be realized, or that terrible reaction to the number that you know should ensue, and miss the trade entirely.

2. Bring proper equipment to the game. Gilbert has a list that for openers includes water, eight rackets (including two with lower and higher tension), energy food, Ibuprofin, Flex-All, chemical ice, towels, sweatbands, extra grips, shoelaces, Band-Aids, cap with visor, dry shirts, socks and sneakers, and pen and notebook. What do you bring as a trader to the opening of the game? Might I suggest that if Gilbert will go all out to win $5,000 in a match, your own efforts to prepare for the trading session might be just as careful? Be prepared with everything you conceivably might need — make up your own list — but strangely, many of the same items that Gilbert mentions might be useful. I would add such things as studies, financial numbers, position sheets, previous games against your trading opponent, a plan for the day, a limit as to how many and where you will trade, alternate communication links, a backup personage for when you leave the room, a phone intercept, music and food.

3. Keep a notebook handy at all times to record your thoughts about your opponent. Gilbert does this during the game, and I would suggest that this would be an excellent thing for specs to do — but your good ideas will come to you at all times. Carrying a notepad has the further advantage of convincing those you have contact with that you are a man of respect.

4. First points are key. Gilbert says that among top players, the person who takes the lead first wins 85% of the time. He believes that an early lead gets the adversary to play defensive and overly pressing tennis. I believe that in trading when you start out with a profit you become much stronger during the rest of the match as you can withstand a greater loss, and the adversary has to extend himself much greater with his mini-booms and busts to squeeze you out.

5. Practice hard before you play. Gilbert has a most unsportsmanlike workout he likes to go through which I deplore, involving getting your opponent to hit it to you first at the net, then hit you lobs and cross-courts and serves so that by the time you play the game you're thoroughly warmed up. I like the idea of preparing everything in advance, even to the extent of entering your orders before the session starts so that you won't, in the heat of the moment, miss the big ones. Certainly you should go over all conceivable contingencies before the game starts.

6. Some points are much more important than others. Gilbert believes that these are the advantage points and the points that lead up to them. My friend Martie Riesman, the champion table tennis player, believes the same thing, and so did Christy Mathewson in Pitching in the Pinch. To me, every point is key, but who am I to argue? Certainly there are key times in the market, I would include the first 20 minutes, the intervals before 11 a.m., and the opening relative to the call as key points here. Also what the market does at the beginning of a period versus the end.

7. Recognize your opportunity. Analyze what's involved, then capitalize on it. That's the Gilbert formula that he applies before, during and after the match. I guess this would be similar to what I consider the key to the spec world: Ask the right questions and then test. But the recognition part, trying to keep an open mind as to when, what and where the questions come from, would augment my guidelines, and it's something that I'll try to improve upon.

8. Be your own doubles partner. Partners in a good doubles team talk to each other about 90 times during a match. Do remind yourself to do the right thing, to prepare for your opponent's strengths, to move to the right position, to give the key points your all during the trading day.

9. Play to your opponent's strengths and weakness. This is key to Gilbert's success. And he has guidelines for playing against the retriever, the player with speed, the attack to your backhand, the good server, the excellent return of serves, the serve volley player, the weak server, the lefty and the heater (the player who makes the point last less than 3 seconds the way they do at Wimbledon). Think of who is on the other side of your trades — is it a dealer or a market maker, a chronic, a charlatrendist? — and act accordingly. Have a plan for dealing with each.

10. Learn from the experts. Gilbert has a chapter on what he learned from Agassiz (hit them on the rise), Lendl (vary the pace), Connors (go for the opponent's weaknesses and return serve properly) Becker (go for the lead and be aggressive). There are many books about how the experts trade. I would think that most of the material in such books is promotional or misinformation, but occasionally in an interview or by analyzing their objective actions, say in the positions of trader's reports, you can glean some information that is not out of date or designed to mislead.

11. Be tournament-tough. Here's a potpourri of catchwords from Gilbert: desire, dedication diligence, mental management, get the early edge, play smart, don't let the other player upset you, have a plan for every aspect of your tennis, mental preparation, stretching warm up, the start of your match, don't rush. All these things are key to success.

Gilbert is to be complimented on a masterful book. Everyone who's seen Gilbert play has the same reaction: "How the Hades did this man win? He hits like a caveman!" I can think of no type of player better to learn from. Anyone who reads Winning Ugly and applies the lessons to his own games and pursuits will find many beautiful outcomes arising from this ugliness.

Jan

7

Tips

January 7, 2025 | Leave a Comment

the sage says don't follow tips, and the palindrome cautioned me not to follow his tips, especially when they were on tv. yet the most successful investor I knew in my 65 year foray into investments followed every one of them very successfully.

i have two tips I received at a recent lunch with a very successful and knowledgeable biotech investor - Crispr and Biomarin - both are down about 1/3 last 12 months.

the worst experience i had on tips came when I was writing for MSN with Miss Kenner. the tip was to buy a company that was a consolidator. their last consolidation involved a garbage disposal company. i posted this in my column. the next day the stock opened -15%.

it turned out the tipster took the occasion to unload his holding of the stock the next day. He had recently recovered from a year in Jail with his only complaints being they didn't serve kosher food. he sensed how easy it was to sucker me.

i used to trade 2000 gold contacts with impunity. the position reached a critical stage in 1981 in the midst of the Polish crisis. fortunately I had as a partner at that time a Prof at Harvard who was very close to the dean who had been an ambassador to Hungary.

My partner transmitted to me that Russia had to combat this insurrection. I sold out my long position based on this tip. the next day Russia didn't go in and gold went up 10%. as this happened some 50 years ago, some of facts may be off but the gist is true.

bring bak to mind the old horse racing tip joke of 78 years ago. it ends with not following a tipster's suggestion that turned out rite 3 times in row. finally he asks me for pop corn and I bring him bak cracker jacks. "you know I cant digest cracker jacks. i have false teeth."

"i thought i should fade you this time"

Vic's X/twitter feed

Jan

5

Two investors

January 5, 2025 | 2 Comments

A very wise investor and an old washed up man

Vic's X/twitter feed

Jan

4

Alfred Thayer Mahan: “The Influence of Sea Power Upon History” as Strategy, Grand Strategy, and Polemic, by Thomas Jamison

No book has had greater effect on the composition of and justification for industrial navies than Alfred Thayer Mahan’s 1890 The Influence of Sea Power Upon History, 1660-1783. Indeed, it is likely true that no other piece of “applied history” has been as successful (for better or for worse) in the making and shaping of U.S. national security policy; George F. Kennan’s 1947 “X Article” comes to mind as a comparable example. Written during a period of U.S. naval reform and expansion, Mahan’s research is at once a parochial argument about the need to revitalize U.S. “sea power,” and a broader account of the relationships between the ocean, trade, and national strength. Many critics have read Influence as transparent propaganda for a domestic audience or a set of dated prescriptions about naval strategy. True, the book is both of those things, but Mahan’s account of Atlantic imperial rivalries is also more valuably an “estimate of the effect of sea power upon the course of history and the prosperity of nations.” That form of comparative and nomological history makes Influence a strategic classic of enduring relevance.

This essay leverages Mahan’s personal correspondence, archival sources, and an extensive body of commentary to explore the content, creation, and reception of Influence. In doing so it encourages readers to consider the text through three lenses: polemic, naval strategy, and grand strategy. Like a piece of stained glass held up to the light, the Mahanian concept of “sea power” is many things at once, depending on one’s perspective. In a narrow sense, Influence is a specific argument—a polemic—aimed at fin de siècle “navalists” about the necessity of expanding the United States Navy (USN). As an analysis of purely naval strategy, it is also a thesis emphasizing concentrated battle fleet engagements as a means of achieving command of the sea. Most importantly, however, it is an outline of a grand strategy bound up in a national turn toward the maritime world.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Dec

31

Lions in winter

December 31, 2024 | Leave a Comment

in a discussion of U.S. strength in Scribner's jan 1900 they point to not only the cost of Europe's 4 million soldiers but the loss of productive activity from these young men. How many in the 3 letter agencies are contributing to our loss in productivity and current expenditure?

a resonant character from the past: In "East of Eden," the father figure who is considered to have a "fake" persona is Cyrus Trask; he presents a facade of a strong, military hero but is revealed to have exaggerated his war record and suffered a debilitating hit.

Cyrus is the Papa Bear. He's a one-legged ex-soldier who takes his brief military career very seriously. He destines his favorite son, Adam, for the army—whether Adam wants it or not—and lets his other son Charles tend to the farm or whatever. All of the nation's military higher-ups take Cyrus very seriously, and Adam is just about the only one who sees through his dear old dad for what he really is: a fraud. It eventually comes out that Cyrus probably did something shady because when he dies he has way more money than he should have.

from 2010 to 2025 there have been 12 years with sp up more than 10% - the next year was up in 11 years up about an average of 20%.

Biden is an 82-year-old lion in winter who fills his public and private meetings with war stories from a long career and reminders of his achievements. He seeks to burnish his legacy, infusing even the most rudimentary of White House events with a retrospective look at his career.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Dec

26

Cons

December 26, 2024 | Leave a Comment

i have fallen victim to more scams than anyone. let me describe some of them. the typical one was a big con that a bookseller from Pennsylvania pulled on me. first part was to have all my good books removed because of "mold" etc.

a part of the book seller bib con was to have another independent autograph and bookseller assure me that the best thing for me was to remove all my books and send them to Penn. unknown to me was that he was receiving a fee from the supposedly independent but sickly Penn.

There were many other strands in this big con which particularly hurt me since books was a a sin qua non of my parents. I have not gone into my library since I fell into the con. I hope one of my siblings doesn't fall victim to another big con.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Dec

22

Alfred Cowles

December 22, 2024 | Leave a Comment

A stock market person who is always sensible, with a memorable reference to Harold Davis:

Alfred Cowles

Dutch biochemist Charles H. Boissevain…advised him that multiple-correlation analysis could be applied to economic research and recommended that he speak to Harold T. Davis, a mathematician at Indiana University who spent his summers in Colorado Springs and a member of the fledgling Econometric Society. Cowles called Davis to ask if it was possible to compute a correlation coefficient in a problem involving 24 variables. Davis suggested that the calculations could be performed by Hollerith punch card machines, developed by a company that would later become International Business Machines (IBM). Cowles acquired a Hollerith computer and worked with Davis on the problem. When it turned out that the machines were ill-suited to the task, Cowles decided to perform a series of linear regressions to test the hypothesis that market analysts using current estimation techniques could not outperform random guessing.

Can Stock Market Forecasters Forecast?, By Alfred Cowles 3rd, December, 1932

This paper presents results of analyses of the forecasting efforts of 45 professional agencies which have attempted, either to select specific common stocks which should prove superior in investment merit to the general run of equities, or to predict the future movements of the stock market itself. The paper falls into two main parts. The first deals with the attempts of two groups, 20 fire insurance companies and 16 financial services, to foretell which specific securities would prove most profitable. The second part deals with the efforts of 25 financial publications to foretell the future course of the stock market. Various statistical tests of these results are given.

Harold Thayer Davis, a forgotten great and his time series book was the first to calculate the distribution of runs of all lengths.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Dec

21

An Investigation into the Causes of Stock Market Return Deviations from Real Earnings Yields
Posted: 6 Dec 2024
Austin Murphy, Oakland University - School of Business Administration
Zeina N. Alsalman, Oakland University
Ioannis Souropanis, Loughborough University

This research demonstrates that the simple difference between the current earnings yield on the S&P500 and the long-term real TIPS yield has significant forecasting power for excess returns on that stock market index over both short-term and long-term investment horizons. For all time frames, deviations from that theoretical identity for the equity premium are positively related to current economic slack in the economy. Over annual horizons, those excess stock return deviations are negatively (positively) associated with recent inflation rates (money growth). Inflation is found to be positively (negatively) related to monetary policy restrictiveness (long-term real profit growth) in the future.

Vic asks:

is this bull or bear?

Dec

19

The service rate

December 19, 2024 | Leave a Comment

two heroes of speculation and investment are both receiving cheers all over. but left out is the one common factor they have. a better relation with service as well as better commission and margin structure.

how can someone paying 3.5 a round trip compete with someone who pays zero - and if you buy a company that was paying dividends and then you stop on grounds that your secretary pays a greater %.

what was average service rate over previous 15 years for these fossils? (one still living)

Vic's X/twitter feed

Dec

18

Vanished occupations

December 18, 2024 | 1 Comment

some occupations that have vanished in the last 150 years (eric sloanes america): stagecoach driving, chimney sweeping, town crying, aviation barnstormer, ice cutters, snow rollers, drovers, keel boatmen, grindstone man, sandwich men, etc. When will technical analysts vanish?

Eric Sloane's America

An informative guide to the vanishing landscape of America's forefathers includes brilliant photography of the barns, covered bridges, road signs, country inns, and steepled churches that they left behind.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Dec

16

Relevant quotes

December 16, 2024 | Leave a Comment

Some relevant Sherlock Holmes quotes, included at the beginning of each chapter of the brilliant statistics textbook Statistical Inference (Second Edition) by Casella and Berger:

"How do all these unusuals strike you, Watson?"
"Their cumulative effect is quite considerable, and yet each of them is quite possible in itself."

"I confess that I have been blind as a mole, but it is better to learn wisdom late than never at all."

"You can, for example, never foretell what any one man will do, but you can say with precision what an average number will be up to. Individuals vary, but percentages remain constant. So says the statistician."

"We want something more than mere theory and preaching."

"I’m afraid that I rather give myself away when I explain. Results without causes are much more impressive."

"We are suffering from a plethora or surmise, conjecture, and hypothesis. The difficulty is to detach the framework of fact - of absolute undeniable fact - from the embellishments of theorists and reporters."

Vic's X/twitter feed

Dec

14

Father and son

December 14, 2024 | 1 Comment

a 63-yr differential between us. My father always said he would be the happiest man in the world when I could beat him at almost all things. I feel the same about Aubrey. (Until my stroke I could beat him at most racket sports.)

Vic's X/twitter feed

Dec

13

A Quixotic President, by Daniel Tenreiro
Wed, January 13, 2021

“The thing is to turn crazy without any provocation,” Quixote tells his sidekick, Sancho Panza, when asked what compelled him to give up his quiet countryside existence and playact knight errantry in the mountains of Spain. A rich bachelor wasting away on his vineyard in La Mancha, the protagonist of Miguel de Cervantes’s novel grows frustrated with the smallness of life. He yearns instead for the toil, anxiety, and arms of the chivalric romances he spends his days reading. Unable to make his dream a reality, Quixote opts to pretend: He mounts a ragged horse, costumes himself in a rusted breastplate, and sets off in search of eternal fame.

when you see a person registered for one party proclaiming views completely opposite - is it a case of false deception or the stockholm syndrome or sinking into the swamp or…

Vic's X/twitter feed

Dec

10

Grandfather Martin liked to encap stock market moves as an example of theory of least effort. Elmer Kelton applies the theory to the explosion of oil in a mine.

Any explosion will follow the path of least resistance. We want its main force to go out to the sides of the hele, to break up the formation. We don’t want it wasted, comin back up the open casing like a blast from a shotgun barrel. So we tamp a yard or so of pea gravel on top of the charge.

-Honor at Daybreak, by Elmer Kelton

Principle of Least Effort

I sat besides a stream of water in complete tranquility wondering about life, its purpose, “who am I?” and such esoteric thoughts. Abruptly, my left brain kicked in and started wondering about well, more left-brain things, like how water finds its own level and how it flows along the path of least resistance. That took me back to my college days when I first learnt about the path of least resistance in the context of electrons flowing through a wire creating electricity. This concept stayed close to my heart as I naively related it to my own disposition of doing things that took the least effort. Later on in life I figured that this Principle of Least Effort (POLE) is actually prevalent in all of nature.

much more work should be done on applying this principle to the stock market in the last 100 years after Granpa passed.

what examples of markets displaying theory of least effort ($1000 reward for best example).

[More on the math/physics side: Action Principles]

Vic's X/twitter feed

Dec

8

Is This Wildly Overvalued Stock Market Doomed? Yes, but Maybe Not Yet -WSJ

the wsj foregoes the Dow theory, and the drift, and the seasonals, and the tendncy for the best to continue to do the best.

another great from Elmer Kelton with a million similarities of the path of mining for oil to markets:

Honor at Daybreak

very quietly the 30-year bond future price has hit a 32-day high. this has been insanely bullish for the S&P. in the last year for example S&P 40 days later is up 154 big points (up 80% to 100% of time) true for all back intervals thru 2001. no wonder wsj is bear.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Dec

5

I listened to Sex and the City over the weekend and the NY Times Sunday edition was like another version of it. here was a man who kept dozens of ratings of sex in city types on past dates and rated them 1 to 10 on how far they'd go more recently. He's a vac denier who ran for Pres in 2024.

continuing the coincidence of sex and city and nytimes there is big article about the Financial District Hip Mystery Tower and the cool x sex and city types who are leasing space there at 1/10 the going rate. somehow my chapter in Edspec on sex and the market is very relevant.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Dec

3

Roughing It

December 3, 2024 | Leave a Comment

for the past week ive been reading Roughing It and Following the Equator. It is amazing how much Mark Twain knew and how amusing it is. I particularly liked his analysis of the German Language, the Mormon migration and the booms and busts in the silver mines.

[Below, a market story from Roughing It. - Ed.]

A youth of nineteen, who was a telegraph operator in Virginia on a salary of a hundred dollars a month, and who, when he could not make out German names in the list of San Francisco steamer arrivals, used to ingeniously select and supply substitutes for them out of an old Berlin city directory, made himself rich by watching the mining telegrams that passed through his hands and buying and selling stocks accordingly, through a friend in San Francisco. Once when a private dispatch was sent from Virginia announcing a rich strike in a prominent mine and advising that the matter be kept secret till a large amount of the stock could be secured, he bought forty "feet" of the stock at twenty dollars a foot, and afterward sold half of it at eight hundred dollars a foot and the rest at double that figure. Within three months he was worth $150,000, and had resigned his telegraphic position.

[ And Twain analyzes The Awful German Language, from A Tramp Abroad. ]

Vic's X/twitter feed

Dec

1

what can one say about the seasonals for December? the seasonals are bullish when the prev 6 months are up and bearish when then prev 6 months are down. recently a rise in the last day of November has been bullish.

a book by a stubborn and deep thinking man - highly recommended:

A Personal Odyssey, by Thomas Sowell.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Nov

25

Book Review: How To Become a Professional Con Artist
3/25/2005

Dennis Marlock opens his "How To" book with a testimonial:

As a law professor, I have read countless books, articles, and dissertations on fraud and deception. This, however, is the first time I have elected to endorse any author's work. The book is indeed an academic gem worthy of inclusion in university curriculums throughout the nation.

The beautiful thing about the professor's testimonial and the related, "I first bought the book hoping to discover why a cop would tell people how to commit fraud. Having read the book, I must now ask why he didn't write it sooner" is that they were both short cons written by the author.

The book lacks the scholarship, timelessness, humor and general principles of David Maurer's classic The Big Con, which I would recommend as one of the seven best books for market practitioners right after Ben Green's Horse Trading. Nevertheless, it is replete with cons and techniques we are exposed to in our day-to-day work in the market. The most relevant topic is chapter 4, "Tools of the Trade," which lists such essentials as "How to Talk Without Saying Anything." An example of this would be market talk such as "1040 is a key level." Yes, if it turns at that level and goes up it was key, and if it hits that level and goes below, why that proves that it didn't hold. A variant of this is the "the market is good as long as stays in the 1025-1075 range."

An important sub-technique is to "use abstract and otherwise equivocal and meaningless rhetoric." I have already written about this, and California Phil's precis of the earthquake "professor" is a classic here. But the market confidence man in general does always frame his thoughts in ways that cannot be disproved or refuted.

One loves the discussions of power laws in this context, as there's no way to differentiate a normal distribution from a power law with any degree of confidence for any samples involving 750 observations or less, and by then the situation has changed so much that one can always rely on Oct 19, 1987.

One must always appear confident as a confidence man and "I am completely confident that you will be totally satisfied with this necklace" is a phrase that the confidence man uses often. This is even more effective when you receive this assurance from a friend of the confidence man. I recently read an interview about a large man who has lost billions of dollars for his investors in publicly reported funds, yet the interviewer refers to the millions he has made the 30% a year internal rates of return, and the nine-figure amount that his followers made applying the techniques that the large man proudly boasts he took the lions share of , and the amazing returns he himself is making at the very present time, despite the difficulties he apparently has in making money for customers.

One of my favorite passages in "How to Become a Professional Con Artist" is the depiction of the big businessman as the ideal mark. "They're cows waiting to be milked," Marlock writes. "They are in abundance, they don't complain when being milked, they provide useful products, and they are used and abused by almost everyone. They are abused daily by employees, lawyers, stockholders, customers, suppliers, lenders, accountants, partners, tax collectors, and competitors. except for the stiff competition, bus schemes are the easiest, safest, and most profitable.

Read the full post.

Nov

23

Deems Taylor

November 23, 2024 | Leave a Comment

this satirical bit brings to mind a Deems Taylor story. He came in for the second piece of concert that was complete programmatic movement. Deems thought the first piece was being performed. and all the allusions were wrong. Mark Twain in Roughing it writes of many mistakes like this.

father of the great libertarian scholar and editor Joan Taylor.

Deems Taylor: A Biography, by James A. Pegolotti.

Composer, critic, author, and radio personality, (Joseph) Deems Taylor (1885-1966) was one of the most influential figures in American culture from the 1920s through the 1940s. A self-taught composer, the New York City native wrote such pieces as the orchestral suite Through the Looking Glass and the acclaimed operas The King's Henchman and Peter Ibbetson, the first commissions ever offered by the Metropolitan Opera. Taylor's operatic works were among the most popular and widely performed of his day, yet he achieved greatest fame and recognition as the golden-voiced intermission commentator for the New York Philharmonic radio broadcasts and as the on-screen host of Walt Disney's classic film Fantasia. With his witty, clever, charming, and informative but unpatronizing manner, he almost single-handedly introduced classical music to millions of Americans across the nation.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Nov

22

All affectation is bad.
Something is better than nothing.
Between friends sharp eyes.
He who leans against a good tree finds good shelter.
The ass laden with gold mounts lightly up the hill.

Well-gotten wealth is lost, but with the ill-gotten the master is lost too.
The wheel of fortune turns quicker than a mill-wheel.
That which costs us little, is valued at even less.
Where one door is shut, another opens.
He who seeks danger perishes in it.

There are no birds in last year's nest.
A sparrow in the hand is better than a vulture on the wing.
Many littles make a Much.
Patience, and shuffle the cards!
All is not gold that glitters.

He who does not intend to pay is not troubled in making his bargain.
He who buys and lies, feels it in his purse.
One misfortune calls another.
Who goes ill, ends ill.
To draw one's beard out of the mire.

Where you least expect it up starts the hare.
The reputation of the master reveals that of the servant.
The ball is drawn up by the thread.
A single swallow does not make a summer.
The dry throat can neither grunt nor sing.

Fortune favors the brave.
What hath been, hath been.
Where duennas intervene, nothing good can come of it.
Make a bridge of silver for a flying enemy.
Upon a good foundation a good building may be raised, and the best foundation in the world is money.

Diligence is the mother of good fortune.
You cannot catch trout with dry breeches.
Here come the Bulls for certain!
Time is the discoverer of all things.
With life many things are remedied.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Nov

20

Howard Hammer

November 20, 2024 | Leave a Comment

Vic and Howie Hammer being inducted into paddlable hall of fame. Howie at 88 the founder.

Howard Hammer – PFA Paddleball Legend of the Game Profile

Howard Hammer is the first inductee into the PFA Hall of Fame, and rightfully so. He was not only one of the greatest players the game has ever seen, but he also contributed more to the game than anyone I know. No one else is more associated with paddleball than Howie. Therefore, the title “Mr. Paddleball” is really appropriate.

Video: Paddleball Shots: Fundamentals, by Howard Hammer

Book: Paddleball: how to play the game, by Howard Hammer, 1979.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Nov

18

while Don quixote is voted the best novel of all time, and its humour and anecdotes are considered sui generis, not many have commented on the wisdom of this book as great as its wit. I have found the proverbs contained within - all very short, salty and sententious - the perfect companion to the book itself. the companion by Ulick Ralph Burke, Sancho Panza's Proverbs, is the perfect partner to the duo and is a work of masterly scholarship. In addition to the saltiness of all proverbs, there is an underlying Spanish diffidence and pregnancy to all the proverbs that enhances the novel.

Nov

16

Favorite piano

November 16, 2024 | Leave a Comment

my favorite piano work at my favorite venue by my favorite non-family woman who I've known for 50 years:

Pianist Rorianne Schrade plays Eduard Schütt's Paraphrase of J. Strauss Tales from the Vienna Woods

Rorianne Schrade YouTube channel

Rorianne's website.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Nov

15

A case for BTC

November 15, 2024 | Leave a Comment

a very resonant and helpful piece highly recommended:

Get Rich While Saving the World! Baby Tristan's Case for Bitcoin

one wouldn't be surprised if Tristan's middle name was Victor.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Nov

12

Sporting anecdotes

November 12, 2024 | Leave a Comment

Sporting Anecdotes (1923) shows us what the state of sports was like in England in 1800's. much betting on walking races, boxing, horse racing. and here is the greatest fives player of all time: john cavanaugh, much fighting of badgers, etc; great match of walking 1000 miles in 1000 hours; gouging match in america; fidelity of a dog; curious wager - walking against eating; throwing cricket ball 100 miles to deliver a post and win a bet; wisdom of Pliny who lived 100+ years.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Nov

7

Price Gouging

Price Controls: Still A Bad Idea, by David R. Henderson.

When University of Chicago economist Harold Demsetz gave a talk in the winter of 1970 at the University of Winnipeg, where I was an undergrad, he used an analogy that many critics of price controls still use. Demsetz told his audience that using price controls to reduce inflation is like responding to cold weather in Winnipeg by breaking the thermometer. His point was that just as thermometers respond to temperature, prices are an indicator of underlying economic phenomena, namely supply and demand. Breaking a thermometer doesn’t cause the temperature to rise; controlling prices doesn’t cause inflation to fall.

The Edict of Diocletian: A Case Study in Price Controls and Inflation, by Murray N. Rothbard.

Citizens of the old Roman Empire distrusted paper currency and refused to accept anything but gold or silver coin as money. So the rulers found themselves barred from inflating the money supply by the unobtrusive method of printing additional currency.

But the Roman emperors soon discovered an ingenious device. They proceeded to call in the coins of the realm, ostensibly for repairs. Then, by various means, such as filing off small parts of the coins, or introducing cheaper alloys, they reduced the silver content of the money without changing its original face value. This devaluation enabled them to add many more silver coins to the Roman money supply. The practice was started by Nero, and accelerated by his successors. By Diocletian’s time, the denarius (standard silver coin) had been reduced to one-tenth of its former value.

The Speculator As Hero, by Victor Niederhoffer.

Some speculators are discoverers like Christopher Columbus, creators like Henry Ford, or inventors like Thomas Edison. Their job is easy to place on a high plane. My role in the grander order is indirect, relatively invisible and unplanned. The only discoveries I make are the routes that prices will travel. Like hundreds of thousands of other traders, I try to predict the prices of common goods a day or two in the future. If I think the price of an item will go up, I buy today and sell later. If I think that the price is going down, I’ll sell at today’s higher price. The miracle is that in taking care of ourselves, we speculators somehow ensure that producers all over the world will provide the right quantity and quality of goods at the proper time, without undue waste, and that this meshes with what people want and the money they have available.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Nov

6

Predictive and Statistical Properties of Insider Trading
Author(s): James H. Lorie and Victor Niederhoffer
Source: Journal of Law and Economics, Vol. 11, No. 1, (Apr., 1968), pp. 35-53
Published by: The University of Chicago Press

The subject has been studied before in many ways, but none of the preceding studies has been definitive and the additional methods of analysis seemed promising. Opinions are somewhat polarized. Academic studies have found virtually no evidence of profitable exploitation by insiders of their special knowledge and no value to outsiders in data on trading by insiders. Others believe that insiders often make extraordinary profits and that knowledge of their trading is valuable. Both the SEC and investors should be interested in which opinion is correct. The methods and coverage of this study differ from those of earlier work, as do our conclusions. We show that proper and prompt analysis of data on insider trading can be profitable, although almost all earlier academic work has reached the contrary conclusion.

Nov

1

From Prices, by Warren and Pearson (1933):

Prices are the major criterion by which the producer can know what society wants. The only way the farmer can tell whether to produce cabbages or wheat is on the basis of price. The only way that his son can determine whether society wants him to be a farmer or a coal miner or doctor is on the basis of price. The woman with the market basket, the retailer who must sell to live, the farmer who must have fence wire to keep his cattle in, the steel producer who must sell in order to operate his mill — all combine to make prices. The algebraic sum of all the millions of transactions between all the buyers and sellers of the world makes prices. The system does not always work perfectly, but no committee could guide the millions of producers to meet human needs so well as prices guide them — provided the medium of exchange functions properly. When it functions badly, the people turn to dictators and social control.

Only through prices can consumption be wisely guided. We would all like porterhouse steak and Packard cars, but these require so much human effort to produce that it is not possible to produce enough for all. Hens do not lay many eggs in winter. Consumers would like them in winter as well as or better than in summer. By raising prices in winter, the supply is made to last.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Oct

28

a daughter and a wife

Two of the favorite people of my long life - Robert Schrade and Susan N

Vic's X/twitter feed

Oct

27

Vic to Aubrey, 2006:

Letter to a newborn son

The occasion of a birth is always a good time to take stock of the important things in life that a father would like to share. In your case, it's even more important, because at 62, I am the oldest father that the big Pennsylvania hospital that you were born in had ever discharged, and I am going to have to compress much of my hopes and knowledge and love for you into a few short years. Here are some of the main lessons for you that I hope to set in motion so clearly and firmly by my own example and also with practical direct applications for you while I'm alive that it will become second nature to you, and these guidelines will be useful merely for a review, but it's too late to lock the stable after the horse has been stolen, so here goes.

Part 2

You were named after two characters, Jack Aubrey, a very worthy character Patrick O'Brian and C.S. Forester wrote about in their series of books about the adventures of the greatest British naval captain in history, who traveled the world with great skill and overcame great danger to make the world safe for freedom; and Charles Darwin, the greatest biologist, who after a trip around the world discovered the nature of life and change. While both showed extraordinary abilities, mental and physical strength, study, science, and character — friendship, loyalty, persistence — in their quests for success, the heroic quality of Jack Aubrey is what inspired your first name.

Part 3

Oct

26

some insights of Elmer Kelton about markets. (1) When you sell something at an auction, auctioneer will always tell you that you should have been here yesterday at the market was great then but it crashed. today. (2) if futures are up "there's no relation of cash to futures".

S&P had gone 9 days without a 20 day high. explanation is surge in odds. now at a high.

my favorite Elmer Kelton besides The Time It Never Rained:

Elmer Kelton Tells the Truth

Here are four of this famous author's speeches, recorded live. Known for his award-winning fiction, Elmer Kelton is highly sought after as a keynote speaker. His vast knowledge of, and passion for, the subjects he uses as backdrops for his novels is evident in these finely-crafted, humorous talks.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Oct

18

Prices, by Warren and Pearson (1933), has first exegesis as to why prices are the key to orderly satisfactions of producers and consumers. a beautiful book with many tables of prices from 1786 to 1933.

World prices and the building industry
Index numbers of prices of 40 basic commodities for 14 countries in currency and in gold, and material on the building industry. (The Price series)

how service cuts supposedly increase interest rates. LIZ Truss compare this to quantity of money theory - anything to increase 3 letter siblings.

Kenneth Roman

Vic's X/twitter feed

Oct

12

The ideal PPI

October 12, 2024 | Leave a Comment

what was the ideal ppi for the BLS to report yesterday? under the circumstances the 0.30 rise in S&P was fairly good. but the gentlemen didn't like it at the close again. yet an all time hi with a weak close. can't be too wrong.

Vic's X/twitter feed

« go back — keep looking »

Archives

Resources & Links

Search