Feb

5

The last few down swings each had 6 new lows before a bottom. Today, marking a new low for this swing after hours will end up a new low number 5 by the end of tomorrow.

Steve Ellison writes:

Interesting. I have been experimenting with multi-level point and figure charts. Using a box size of 1.4% (a long-term average true daily range) and a 3-box reversal, SPY is still within 4.2% of its all-time high and hence in an uptrend. Drill down with smaller box sizes and shorter time intervals, and interesting price structures appear. At a 1/4 ATR box size, today's close was at a similar level to the Jan. 20 low.

Lots of sector rotation under the surface. If 2025 was the year of the magnificent 7 and the flatlining 493, this year may be the opposite. While technology was getting beaten down this week, the Industrial, Materials, Consumer Staples, and Energy sector ETFs all made new highs.

Zubin Al Genubi adds:

Lots of late night shenanigans going on. Asian markets trading open in late thin US futures creating imbalances. Price action appears algo driven.

Nils Poertner comments:

I like the pattern with 6 new lows. Well spotted. Otoh, if the pattern does not repeat the surprise for mkts is bigger. nature offers "patterns" and "break of patterns" and both are relevant - else it would be a museum.

Cagdas Tuna predicts:

Then it is going to be a rough year for market cap weighted indices in US.

Peter Ringel writes:

While I would always give a study, like Big Al‘s more weight to remove opinion. I wonder, if there is a January effect regarding regime type or sector or general trading type. Not necessary % performance. Will the rest if the year trade like January? Would give a 2015 type year.

Nils Poertner responds:

yes. for practical purpose, it may be easier to trade mkts which receive less attention by the wider financial community /media.


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