Apr
19
Regression to the mean
April 19, 2025 |
Great and sententious discussion of regression by Tredoux in the second volume of his Galton bio (with tremendous applicability to markets):
However the concept of regression to the mean where it has been comprehended at all has led to persistent popular misunderstandings about its nature. Failure to spot regression to the mean recurs so often it seems to be a universal law of human behavior. Examples could be multiplied endlessly. They involve selection of a bad condition to which some intervention is applied after which the condition is observed again. Usually it has improved. Therefore the policy is supposed to work.
Francis Galton's Genius: 1865-1911, page 225
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