Oct

16

I looked at SP500 daily closes to find instances when a day’s close was lower than 10% less than the highest close of the prior 42 trading days (about 2 mo). To further isolate such instances, I noted only those with two consecutive closes lower than 10% decline from 42D max, which followed two closes which did not meet the condition.

We are currently 929 trading days since the last such decline (Feb 2003), which is the 5th longest wait out of 45 noted since 1950. Here are the dates of 10% declines, along with count of days since previous 10% decline:

Date Days Date Days Date Days
——– —- ——– —- ——– —-
08/28/98 1993 02/07/03 96 11/30/78 23
09/23/57 1796 05/20/74 91 07/29/74 15
10/16/87 1336 12/04/74 90 07/07/82 11
08/23/66 1072 07/11/01 84 11/04/57 11
11/21/73 898 06/21/82 74 10/08/57 11
05/05/70 873 09/20/02 63 07/26/50 10
10/27/78 797 03/12/01 53 09/03/75 9
08/20/90 718 09/10/01 42 10/18/57 8
03/08/60 585 12/21/00 39 05/22/62 7
05/11/62 548 10/10/90 36 10/26/00 6
10/12/00 513 10/31/01 33 09/16/81 6
09/08/81 374 07/08/74 33 10/18/00 4
03/14/80 325 06/21/02 32 08/20/75 4
08/14/75 175 01/09/74 32 11/11/57 4
05/07/02 128 10/04/66 29
03/05/82 118 10/01/98 23


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