Dec

3

I don't have many views on markets, but one - and the most successful - concerns interest rates. It is that the Fed and government tend to have a bias which makes the bond markets trend either towards a long term bear market or a long term bull market at different times. However, politics is not the foundational cause of this.  Rather, it is society and "social" injustices caused by government involvement that drives the politics to reverse itself from time to time. Rocky deserves praise for his phenomenal calls starting in early 2016 about Trump's election and its impact on the market. I would agree with Rocky that Trump's election is a signal that the tides have turned on the bond markets. However, Trump's election is due to men's reaction at the ballot box after not being allowed to complain, or at least not politically correctly being allowed to complain.
 
Despite the fact that women now make up 60% of our college graduates, education, which government spends so much money on, has categorically failed men. You go to any public high school, look at the list of valedictorians and salutatorians in the last 10-15 years and almost all schools will show a statistically significant bias for the girls. Do this for the poorest communities and you will not even need to do the statistical calculations, it will be so glaringly obvious. Single moms have doubled since the last long term bear bond market. Children being raised by both biological parents are now the minority.  This has caused boys to have fewer nurturing father figures and less time with them.  This has destroyed a generation of youth. While a rising tide raises all ships economically, a lowering moral tide makes all ships less sea worthy. The young girls are suffering as well from dumbing down of their potential mates.  

What does this have to do with interest rates: well yes, Trump politics will drive rates higher most likely. But it is only a matter of time before the other side realizes why he got elected and joins the march. They will offer their inflationary version of how government can "solve" this crisis young men are facing, just as both sides offered their version of how to solve the crisis caused by the draft and Vietnam. Then the political cycle will again change and will keep driving interest rates up further..


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2 Comments so far

  1. Karen Jaranowski on December 3, 2016 6:01 pm

    It is unlikely that “nurturing” men would be unwelcome in the family home. Women now have some power to not be treated as dependent chattel. They are no longer compelled to live at the mercy of ignorant and abusive partners. This is not an indication of a lower tide of morality. It is a wake up call to men. “Grab them by the pussy” doesn’t cut it anymore, unless you are a billionaire with a mail order bride. Step up and be real men. Understand that nurturing does not mean ownership. Do that and you will be welcome. Do that and you will be a useful role model for your sons.

  2. astro the dog on December 5, 2016 12:49 pm

    The Pluto Pattern Cycle is full circle now and in the ending shifts.

    All empires have a common development at its end, it is the ‘rise of the women’, you will find as the power shifts between men and women on a national level that shift in thinking is of the moral issues of the times. In the last 40-50 years section 8 and the Pluto cycle, 50 million Americans were aborted from birth, 2 entire generations of Americans did not participate in what the empire had to offer. This was a worst killing spree than that of what was called the genocide of the ‘silent generation’ during President Wilson’s term in WW1.

    A great void was created in human life of this action which allow the large influx of illegally immigration to flourish to extreme levels.

    The lack of a renew workforce in the last 2 generations, thus opened the final door and the fall of nationalism that every empire goes though at its end.

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