Dec
5
Our Guess on Jobs Numbers, from Bill Rafter
December 5, 2012 |
The payroll tax receipts are virtually identical to that of a month earlier. If there is any tilt to the data, it is slightly higher (i.e. bullish equities). If the media expects it to be down (maybe because of Sandy), then the released data will catch them a little off guard.
From the end of the reporting period Nov. 16th thru Nov. 28th, the data has been higher, but that should be reflected in the next month's report. Please note that I remove the seasonal effects to avoid enthusiasm over the temporary Christmas employment.
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