Oct

13

Young, more inexperienced specs would benefit from writing down all the observations, patterns, even subjective things they picked up and compare in the future (1wk, 1mo, etc), not just today but in particular this month. Instead of reading research paper no 3241.

William Huggins writes:

i recall a quarter century ago doc Steenbarger had done some private work for high figure chicago traders on their biases that he could only discuss with the list in the most general sense (ie, this not my work, just shouting back so its value is not lost to time). one of his "summary takeaways" for us that stuck, that i teach in my own classes on investments, is to write down -why- you think something is a good trade for the purpose of auditing your own thinking when it fails. if i recall correctly, the analogy he used was that of a professional sports team watching their own lost games to understand how to contain failure rather than seeking out the (supposed) source of success. the behavioral nugget on that one being the desire to fit our success to a heroic narrative often makes failure analysis more objective and hence productive. if you aim to improve, write down the reasons for your trades and then ruthlessly analyze failures in the aftermath.

Nils Poertner responds:

Wholeheartedly agree William! Victor always suggested to pass on "meals for life" and that would be one of them.

Asindu Drileba adds:

One of my favorite quotes is:

A good decision is still a good decision even if it turns out bad
& a bad decision is still a bad decision even if it turns out good.

A few months back I watched the Michael Jordan movie, Air (2023). A similar quote from the movie I liked:

Just because you're losing, does not mean you placed the wrong bet. - Sonny Vaccaro

Gary Boddicker offers:

Brings to mind the key concept from David Sklansky's classic, The Theory of Poker:

Any time you make a bet with the best of it, where the odds are in your favor, you have earned something whether you actually win or lose the bet. By the same token, when you make a bet with the worst of it, where the odds are not in your favor, you have lost something, whether you actually win or lose the bet.


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  1. ANDRE WALLIN on October 14, 2026 9:09 am

    the thing in poker as alluded to in the comments- the outcome can be manipulated by betting with blockers and opponents’ suboptimal play or over folding. no blockers or weak opponents in the markets as a retail trader.

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