Oct

15

Dalio, from Nils Poertner

October 15, 2026 |

Are Dalio's books worth to read? Am too much of a s/t trader myself, but I have a hunch one wants to brush up on his ideas of deflation /cycles. ECB, BOE might be cutting before FED as well (so it may seem very strange from a pure US perspective alone to think deflation is coming).

William Huggins replies:

have read "how countries go broke" and "the changing world order" - i find his style to be very expositional with little effort at decoding the mechanisms that underlay the patterns he's identified. there is little effort to falsify and a lot more curve fitting than i am comfortable with. that said, he does capture some important insights for people who believe it will be different "this time" and i think his signposts for trouble ahead are likely to manifest. without getting political, it would seem the current admin is accelerating the timeline. i have yet to play around with his ai-self but am generally concerned that all instances of civilizational debt cycles occurred in the context of a population pyramid, not a chimney (let alone inverted pyramid). its not clear what the implications of that will be economically but if anything IS different this time, imo its the demographic profile and it doesn't bode well for "grow past the problem" (as seen in china where the npl-eating amcs have grown aum more than x100 in the past 25 years)

Nils Poertner responds:

Thanks, quite informative William. One of my (older) bond trader friends used to say to me, "You got to think things through - sit in a room by yourself, for 1hour quietly, and figure things out as much as you can. Don't check the internet, don't consult others, just try to visualize the most likely outcome."

Asindu Drileba writes:

Ray Dalio's official YouTube channel has good videos where it breaks down the core concepts of his books. I find the writing style of his books about too "corporate" or in your language Nils, "not very master & commander". But like any book, there is a lot you can learn from him.

However, there is a book about Ray Dalio titled "The Fund" by Rob Copeland. It's so beautifully written & can be considered as a deep dive into Ray Dalio's personal character or the unfiltered depiction on how he actually perceives the world.

Larry Williams comments:

He has been so bearish for so long…is the bottom line as I see it.

Edward Kozun writes:

Agreed on the bearish too long…a stopped clock is eventually right. I really believe his track record benefited from the extreme of high interest rates of 82 that went down until 2022, not from his cycle calls. Absolutely hasn’t performed well since. Has an ETF ALLW that is doing a good job of underperforming. He’s got a great PR team now.

Nils Poertner wonders:

What if he's right though? (Fun fact that I learned about him. He had punched his boss IN THE FACE in a bar when he was younger. Quite a character)

Humbert X. offers:

I’ve read all of his books. I really enjoyed “Principles”. He went from working in his bedroom to becoming a Billionaire and it’s an incredible story. I also recommend the interview with Jack Schwager in “Hedge Fund Market Wizards” for a quick review. He’s very intellectually generous and I have learned a lot from him. I consider him a mentor in some sense. His analysis of cycles goes way back (He cites Leviticus 25 in one of his recent books). I personally have gotten the most out of his approach to thinking. For me it is of great value to know not just what a man thinks but how he thinks. Actually twice thus far Mr Poertner you have suggested that we write every thing down. I would love to hear suggestions from the list on how others keep their trade journals. I know well the Wiswell adage “keep your manual and your manual will keep you”. I have a system but it is unsatisfactory (the largest room in the world is room for improvement). I’m also curious if others are of the opinion that after a certain amount of experience there is a diminishing return in keeping a journal. It’s an interesting problem what you read or saw and when and how you actually synthesized an idea.


Comments

Name

Email

Website

Speak your mind

Archives

Resources & Links

Search