May

24

nadalPittsburgh Phil would have a field day with this 4-11 odds on Nadal now by betting the field I think. Nadal's game is very brittle and subject to many errors.

Lars von Dort writes:

Betfair has Nadal currently trading at 1.46/1.47 to win Roland Garros.

This is in decimal odds which translates to a 68% probability. The odds on Betfair are generally better than most bookmakers'. This UK-based company runs actual markets in sports results. Some may be familiar with Tradesports, a site that did the same, although worse, and is now closed. Or Intrade, which does the same for non-sports events such as elections (still going strong). Unfortunately, Betfair blocks access for some countries, including the US, due to legal considerations. I hope (online) gambling in the US will soon be allowed again without any restrictions. I believe everyone should have the right to spend his/her money as he/she pleases. Also, it would further improve liquidity…I've learned to respect these markets. There is no easy money and generally they are quite efficient. I don't see value in betting on or against Nadal here. The price seems fine. He has been dominating all clay tournaments he has entered this year. He did drop a few sets, amongst others to Gulbis, who may be an interesting player to follow this tournament (although he just lost the first set in his first round match).

Anyway, I'm not touching this market. I would certainly be very interested to see what Pittsburgh Phil would do.

My quest for value lies in betting on tennis matches while they are in progress. I believe this offers more opportunities than betting before the start of the match (or tournament). I'm about to graduate on an analysis of the in-play tennis betting markets. I'd like to write a bit more about my findings soon, if anyone is interested.

 


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