Oct

14

There's always one moment during the week that is the key to what happened. I believe it was the plane crash on Wednesday that for one minute knocked all the stops from weak longs and then made the path of least resistance up.

I would recommend Christy Mathewson's Pitching in the Pinch (I've written about it before) for a beautiful discussion of that one critical moment in baseball where the pitcher has held something back and the crowd is tense, and the batter is particularly vigilant.

The question is how to define it, to quantify it in markets. I believe it came during Hurricane Katrina overnight, and the London Bombing's overnight. A good rule of thumb is that if it's down x points and bonds are up y points at time z , then it's the pinch. But I’d like to hear other erudites and tests on this.


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