Feb

1

COT Notes, from Anatoly Veltman

February 1, 2009 |

I'm sounding alarm. Amidst signs that:
 
1. Trading and Investment capital is continuing to contract.
2. Political and regulatory interferences are becoming more chaotic
3. Economic downturn's impact is widening
 
…it is harder than ever before to pin down intermediate-term opportunities. Those who've been trading in-and-out and even reversing every few days (albeit, with year-opener bias in mind), have done well. But in the course of February, year-opener directions should fade. Sector by sector:
 
1. SP: Commercials have been on the right side of every twist-and-turn. Raising Net Longs late Q4, shorting early Jan, buying again mid-Jan and selling again last week. Test of Nov lows is certain - and only then the panic will reach the pitch tone. However, it's important to not lose sight of the absolute diminishing values: what will look like the ultimate break-down - in fact, will have little room to forge ahead, relative to enormous Bear coups of 2008. When smaller players finally go overly Short on new lows, en mass - they'll find little reward.
 
2. Treasuries: 30y futures have retraced exactly half of their straight-line Q4 sprint 111->142, thus relieving unconscionable Xmas overbought. O.I. pattern is bullish at current juncture, dropping on down-days and rising on up-days.
 
3. Currencies: C.O.T. display intriguing divergence vis-a-vis equity-Bear posture. Yen commitments are Bearish, while SF Bullish. I'm getting ready for substantial reversals in both dropping European currencies and rising Yen. My scenario is that such reversals will be playing out against the background of equities' panic, and will catch Specs flat-footed.
 
4. GC commitments got predictably stone-walled in course of super-rally. Commercials offered scale-up across the precious metals complex. While long-term outlook for Gold is unavoidably Bullish (given few viable investment alternatives), I'd much rather be a buyer on any sharp profit-taking spells, than on any "strong trend". Copper O.I. pattern remains Bullish - but it will be up-hill battle against the back-drop of equity panic.
 
5. Energy contracts remain in disarray, with little of new indicators in the past week. Of note CL 6-week consolidation pattern that follows vertical 147->33 move, record HO O.I. levels, RB price out-performance (not supported by O.I. pattern) and NG price under-performance, nearing very important $4.05 low of 2006. My conclusion is that the complex will struggle with equities - and that important buying opportunity will form in the process.

George Parkanyi comments:

I admit that I apply COT like a simpleton, but time and time again I've noticed that aligning with the commercials in physical commodities (in the financial indices or currencies I don't even know who a commercial is, or if they're particularly bright enough to make a difference) generally gets you going in the right direction. THAT I learned to pay attention to from Larry's excellent books on the subject. (Unfortunately, Larry, I didn't follow your money management advice and eventually skewered my commodities account).

A guy called Barry Lees runs a site called cotfutures and basically all he does is reorganize COT data into a useful format -particularly a rolling 18 month 0-100 ranking representing the range between the maximum commercial net-short position (0) and the maximum net-long position (100). I've found the 0-10's to be pretty good markers for a downward reversal and the 90-100's for an upward reversal. Speculators would be at the opposite side of the spectrum. There are other factors of course, but these are pretty good ballpark indicators.

Right now, Copper and Rough Rice are at 100-0 extremes, corn 98-4, oats 93-1, cotton 93-20, lumber 92-14. The latter makes sense - it reflects the housing market and consumer staples (leprosy). Gold and oil are mid-range and inconclusive by this interpretation. The closest thing to a short are hogs at 24-63, which is not really considered to be an extreme. (Commercials seem to have not much of a market to sell into and must be cutting back production or holding back inventory because prices suck. Anyway, that's the way I might interpret it.) Would I rush out and by copper and rice right away? Not necessarily. But to buy copper stocks right now to invest for a couple of years might not turn out too badly.

Larry Williams adds:

Not that I know it all, but a little more than most I kid myself, so I will comment what Lees is doing is 10 years behind the times and fails to take into consideration price levels–a critical point.

COT is actually entering bullish area for hogs—2 weeks ago entered bullish are for lumber but not a great buy point due to price levels. Commercials buy all the way down as they take delivery and use the stuff—they are not spec buyers—and that must be factored in….same in copper sure there's been commercial buying, but low price levels induced it.

James Goldcamp writes:

Conceptually I've always had a hard time taking COT serious in markets where the futures markets are not a significant portion of the overall business such as SP(stocks). Isn't the SP overshadowed by the cash market for stocks (where many of the big players such as mutual funds don't use futures at all or minimally)? The same would seem to be true for the currencies. Perhaps you might argue (with respect to markets where the futures are not significant portion of the overall $ traded) the structure of who is positioned in what manner is indicative of sentiment ; however, I cant believe it's driving anything.

Larry Williams replies:

currencies have a very strong commercial influence; international corps protecting sales in various currencies.


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