Jul

6

I just listened to this guy who uses Credit Default Swaps for countries (sovereign CDS) as an indicator to evaluate if a country is good for tourism investments. He claims his methods can make between 15% to 20% annually. The person interviewing (Joe De Sena) was also a trader on wall street for 20 years and asked some questions I liked.

Do all countries have these sovereign credit default swaps? I did some Googling and I could only find a few dozen listed on here. If more countries have them, is there a comprehensive list where I can look them up? I need those of Kenya right now for example.

In this episode, Joe De Sena, chats with his friend Kalojan Georgiev, currently residing in Zanzibar. Kalojan provides an engaging insight into the untapped potential of Zanzibar as a prime investment destination and a wonderful place to live.

Big Al responds:

There is some web data.

Nils Poertner comments:

by and large, CDS on sov not really relevant at all for so many reasons. better to look at traded bonds in USD (or EUR) and look at volume, too. in any case, test everything!

Asindu Drileba adds:

I don't know if anyone here is following what's happening in Kenya but it's falling apart:
- They are heavily in debt (foreign debts are 65% of GDP)
- They government wanted to increase taxes to service the debts
- We are seeing heavy protests in Nairobi & other Kenyans cities
- The new tax Bills have been withdrawn
- Protests are still intensifying
- Interest rates on treasuries are at 19% (I often laugh when I hear Americans complain about 5% interest rates)

I just wanted to know how the Sovereign CDS are pricing the events or if the predicted them.

Nils Poertner writes:

plenty of opportunities coming for EM markets (listed equity) - one needs to do a lot of research, as always (and look beneath the surface and dig deeper and test ideas and express it in a trade and learn and so on). your search, Asindu is your search alone and am not laying out the road map, just saying it is possible.


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