Apr
9
Ideas for markets from Bill James
April 9, 2024 |
some consilient ideas for markets from The Mind of Bill James, by Scott Gray:
(1) the strikeout rate is directly indicative of the longevity of a career. (2) the best managers are easy going. (3) minor-league performance is predictive of major league performance. (4) circular results: when something happens to offense, it also will happen to defense.
(5) having a runner on first base is bad - it's negative. (6) stealing is a negative. teams leading in steals do worse. (7) batting order doesn't matter. (8) a team playing in a hitter's park will have stronger pitchers.
similarity of scores are predictive: (9) the ratio between a team's wins and losses will be the same as the square of runs scored / runs allowed. (10) devise theories to explain how things are connected to one another.
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