Jan

30

A remarkable increase in wealth

January 30, 2023 |

there has been a remarkable increase in wealth so far in 2023. jan S&P is up 3%, long term bonds are up, gold is up 11%, nikkei up 10%, dax up 7%, copper up 10%, bitcoin up 50%, sugar up 10%.

perhaps this is greatest increase in wealth ever. note that jan 2023 ends with five consecutive 20 day highs in a row. and to top it off regulatory capture for 2024 is ascending with the guy now leading in the odds. perhaps no consilience that big guy is up 50% in odds.

there will be talk soon about Jan barometer. of course it will be untested. problem with it is that in 2009, jan sp was down big. the next 11 months were up 55%. conversely in 2001 big reverse from jan S&P up 5% to down 25% for the year.

it can't go up steadily, or the public will not be wrong footed. indeed the regularities call for a down feb after a dipsey doodle in the first tow weeks of Jan.

putting it all together i find that when jan S&P is up, the average for next 11 months is up 6%. similarly when S&P is down first month, the average change is up 6%. using bonds as a barometer we find similarly random moves to end of year.

all results are from 1996 to present. there is also the problem of ever-changing cycles and the low power of any study with 26 meager observations.

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