Dec

7

Timing, from Nils Poertner

December 7, 2022 |

If Timing in mkts is everything - I mean everything - how can one improve it?

Few yrs ago, there was this mixed martial arts boxer called Chuck Liddell. He had amazing timing like no other one else had - and was mostly a counter-boxer. Eventually others figured him out but he has his run. He observed his opponents carefully- - and in the right moment broke the pattern and leaped forward when his opponent didn't expect it. Same parallels to trading mkts perhaps?

a - observe everything
b - develop a bit of courage for the leap (but only after a and plenty of practice)
c - practice.

William Huggins responds:

reminds me of Miyamoto Musashi's exhortation to his students that breaking the opponent's rhythm was the most important part of competition. He suggested a number of techniques (fight with the sun behind you, chase opponent onto uneven ground, stab at the face, etc) but I wonder if those are of limited applicability when squaring off against faceless (and innumerable) market-based opponents simultaneously.

his Book of Five Rings is hundreds of years old and thus free everywhere.

John Floyd writes:

Extending on your martial arts analogy….and bringing in the law of everchanging markets…timing is improved in terms of outcome and consistency if one recognizes and can adapt to prevailing conditions, using experience and intuition, and what tools to pull out of the quiver and employ.

This article from one of my teachers talking about my esteemed dojo mate Paul Williams is a worthy read on an application of timing.

Zubin Al Genubi adds:

One of Miyamoto's strategies was run, then suddenly turn and attack while fleeing. I've found it a useful trading strategy. He would also arrive to a duel early, or late, throwing off the opponent's timing.

Paolo Pezzutti comments:

Intermarket relationships can provide good timing. For example when bonds print a new 20-day it is quite bullish for stocks over the next days. Buy signal last Friday at the close. Since Mar 20 holding 3-5 days T-score up to 4. Last 10 trades after 5 days all positive. (Chart on TWTR.)


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