Oct

11

Competition and adaptation

October 11, 2022 |

phenotype selection: Darwin's theory of evolution explains why living things change over time: the mechanism is adaptation - the tendency for living things to become well designed for reproduction and survival. many factors in the environment cause this including competition.

selection causes: predation, weather. in summarizing the subject, Pfenning and colleagues say selection is common in nature and is often sufficiently strong to cause substantial evolutionary change.

there has been a substantial change in market activity and structure in the last year. From 2019 to year end 2021, the S&P was up 54% of the time for an average of 0.3 a day. During 2022, the S&P was up 46% of days and down -4.8 a day. What are the reasons? Lets start with bonds: at year end 2021 they stood at 159, today at 125.5; nasdaq at 16 500, today at 11 100; crude at 76.5 now at 91.2; eurodollar 1.13 now at 98. yen down 40% , gold down 100.

what are the reasons for this change: the answer from ecology is usually increased competition — in this case it would be from fixed income like bonds. but the answer is somewhat deeper I think: there has been a massive increase in regulatory capture, in agrarian reform.

when will it reverse? the statistic shows that after every bad year, the next year is very bullish. perhaps the November election now at 80% for the non-unifiers is a telescopic date.

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