Oct

5

Larry Johnson writes:

What Do You Make of Russia’s Strategy in Ukraine?

Russia is now sacrificing pawns in the form of strategically useless territory, while Ukraine is rushing forward to seize symbolic territory without having the necessary reserves in terms of trained soldiers and equipment to sustain the attack and defeat Russia. Russia, meanwhile, is moving its Knights, Rooks and Bishops into position for checkmate. The question remains – what is Putin’s gambit?

One likely answer: Putin follows the path Metternich would have taken if the British had not had their Navy.

Mahan missed the part about how Napoleon lost. In a world of anti-ship missiles, the Americans cannot hope to do what Britain did after 1815 and use sea power alone to rule world trade. The Continental system failed because Russian would not go along. Now, to succeed, a Russian continental energy system only needs to have Poland and Ukraine neutered by having Americans remove all military assistance. Those countries will continue to hate and despise Russians the way John McCain did; but they will have no more ability to do anything to change the pieces on the board in central Europe than American Cold Warriors had between the Korean War and the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Putin can, in the name of peace, build new improved pipelines to follow the route that Russia took against the Ottomans. Russian oil and gas - and Iranian as well - can go around the Black Sea coast and through Moldavia to Hungary and Austria where Germany and Italy can accept deliveries.


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