Apr
9
Conditional odds on the polls
April 9, 2022 |
it is interesting to look at conditional odds on the polls. Its 55% that the proud father will win if nominated. but only 75% that he'll be nominated. the person with the highest chance of winning if nominated is DeSantis with 66%, whereas 45 is only 50%.
chance that proud father will win has stayed steady at 15% for 6 months. watching these odds to me is a better predictor of the market than war news, although they both are weak. if chances of 46 winning go up from 15% that's bullish.
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