Mar

26

March 22:

1. It is amazing to see Dr. Fauci and others in his 95% anti operation, an infiltrator in our midst, (Tom Wiswell's favorite move) decrying tests that are not double blind and will not take 3 months for results. Double blind testing and stifling: "How the CDC's Restrictive Testing Guidelines Hid the Coronavirus Epidemic"

2. I have been asked what predictive value the charts of color depicting earnings and bonds have now. In a period of declining earnings mass hysteria and interest rates near zero, I would say that their value is minimal. However as stocks revolve toward book value when earnings start climbing again they will become very relevant as the return on investment by businesses discounted into the future will provide a bullish foundation for stocks.

3. Mr. ag trader, a chronic bear (how's Soros?), points out that there are going to be a lot of dead people on tv shortly. The last figures I saw on this were 48 deaths in the US declining to 47 on Saturday (I presume this is new deaths).

In any case if deaths are declining forecast for all epidemiological models are they will continue to fall. More important, what is the loss of utility of happiness to the US because of travel, entertainments, meeting, dining restrictions, big layoffs, economy restrictions compared to the hypothetical gains from current.

As the statisticians have pointed out, following a random sample of people would be best to predict outcomes. I would presume the closest we have is the NBA (presumably all have been tested). Two or three weeks have gone by. Presumably 1000 have been tested and none have passed away (or else we would be been bombarded by the sad news). The death rate continues to be much less than the comparable death rate for flu as pointed out by many.

3. Mr. Davidson points out the the Princess is a better random sample than the NBA. The projections that is 1/8% based on 700 not as I mistakenly said 7000. But the confined conditions and inability to attempt to save lives may make NBA a better sample.

4. When a judge lets one side have the best of the motion the chances are the other side is going to win as the Judge is protecting for the appeal. (I remember a case where the judge and defendant had been partners before and the judge said ("let him have it") to a motion. I knew I lost then. Dr. Fauci is a master at this. He pretends to say exculpatory things to the Pres. ("without his banning flights from China the situation would be much worse"). This transparent self serving pretense of being fair should not prevent anyone from the total CDC bias.

5. What's the best random sample? Presumably all the pro sports player and congress and friends of CDC have managed to be tested. Let's say 5000. If any had died we would have heard and more shutdowns would have occurred. The death rate from a random sample must be <1/50 of 1% in the US.

6. "These Drugs Are Helping Our Coronavirus Patients": It wasn't invented or approved at CDC so as predicted. We better wait for double blind at least 3 months to be sure. As Mencken said the art of politics is to create a terrible situation and then come to the rescue. (Usually the secretary of the interior)

"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary." Keep them scared and get the secretary of interior involved.

March 23rd:

1. A commenter points out that the number of new deaths from the virus is now decreasing on a daily basis for every state that doesn't border NY. One wonders if the New York totals are biased in some way to receive alms and hurt those of a different persuasion. Other biases CDC.

2. After 6 significant down days the regularities call for a rise. Ultimately the congress divided will come together on a stimulus package as to which one would be better for the market. They both will be kind to their constituents.

3. The many hateful responses I'm getting because I believe that it's very bullish on Tuesday and that the virus is receding in many places reminds one of the Keech doomsday cult. Note the hate when doomsday didn't look so likely.

March 24th: 

1. Not yours to give: house bill includes 25 million for Kennedy Center.

2. Davey Crockett is stamping post cards in honor of Horatio Bump: "Not Yours to Give"

3. The Kennedy Center and what else: "House Dems' Emergency Coronavirus Stimulus Bill Includes $35M for Kennedy Center"

4. Quote of day: "It doesn't feel like there is massive relief and confidence out there" -David Coombs, Rathbone Management

5. Nothing special to closing.

March 24th: 

1. What are the to the game today. The Prez has moved up from slightly below the challenger to reasonably ahead in one day. Thus, what everyone suspects empirically and theoretically the agrarians want the market down and the rest prefer more wealth than less.

2. Another key is that after a big up preceded by a big down, it's quite bearish since 1996 and recently only 6 or 7 observations with 1 up.

3. A third key is that thoughtful statisticians are more and more coming to conclusion which I received Hateful Keech type reprimands from: "Is the coronavirus as deadly as they say?"

4. The fourth key is Dr. Fauci and his colleagues. This is much evidence that the CDC scared u pl.. The WSJ had numerous examples of this mainly monopolizing the testing and sending out defective test kits. Naturally the CDC and all agencies wish to exaggerate the severity.

5. A fifth key is the Mencken quote that gov will always try to find hobgoblin of a crisis then come to our rescue by making sure that they get a 35 mill for Kennedy and Obama Care phones in their 1000 page bill which they will compromise. What are chances that the Center remains?

6. A responder asks me, "what about the Morgues outside of NY hospitals?" One would query when talking about the towering imcompetence of the Pres, The Mayor has every incentive to magnify and close the parks. I am reminded when the chief autopsy Dr. was fired for concluding that Governor Rockefeller had died form too much pressure and exertion.

7. What does The Spy and the Traitor and Tom Wiswell infiltrating early to double corner and Dr. Fauci have in common?

8. You have a disputed call in your game of punch ball… Your own man says you were oooout. But then your own man who is always close to you (see the Pres press conferences) is not so fair to the other side on the next crucial call for a disputed point.

9. People are making fun of me for my invidious allusions to the Italian discover of the cure for HIV. To me he represents a Jungian Archetype of the weltanschauung in the government agencies that are 95% pro agrarian (it's no good if NIH)

March 25th

1. Could we have sell on the news buy on the rumors typical reaction to deal made by both houses?

2. Let's see if my prediction that the 35 million for the Kennedy center is still in bill in the right spirit.

March 26th

1. As predicted they kept the Kennedy center with 25 million in there. Davy Crockett and all who oppose crony capitalism and giving money for an institution in Washington that benefits the politicians and their staff when other institutions are equally worthy not in Washington.

2. One wonders whether buried in the bill is several million for fancy sauce replenishment in Washington. Bechamel and bernaise sauce. Special allocation for farm to table restaurant near congress and agencies.

3. The good one forbid that all the average 125,000 and over salaries at CDC and other agencies would contribute their own money to Kennedy Center so that it could maintain the elevated aesthetic level of favorite performances. The special 25 million for employees of the House Rep would help.

4. One notes that your own man Dr. Fauci who is completely unbiased infiltrated the Pres conference to point out that we might have a relapse of the virus down the road (lest the shutdown and testing is too short) As Predicted.

5. The Horla: "Trump Throws His Support Behind Stimulus Bill in Senate as Fauci Warns of Other Coronavirus cycles"

6. I have been asked why I brought up that the chief coroner was fired after the Rockefeller Megan incident. The reason is that the coroner's office is a political one like so many. There is every incentive when working for a socialist mayor anxious to highlight the towering incompetence of the Prez for the coroner to overstate the causes of death. Many people die with the virus but that doesn't mean it was the cause of death. Similarly the CDC having missed the ball on the virus has every reason to emphasize caution and their own importance in making sure that no untested treatments are accepted without a prolonged shut down supervised by the average 125,000 salaries without fear of losing their job at the agency.

7. As the statistician articles I've cited point out the # of people tested increases the of positive for the virus increases. The estimate that the death rate from the virus in the US is perhaps 1/100 as much as the 1% bruited about. There are about 1000 times as many undiagnosed with the virus as reported. Thus if there are 10,000 who are positive, actually there are 100,000 for the coroner to posit an agrarian cause of death.

8. I am asked if we could have a sell on the news decline when the announcment comes out. I don't think so. We've already had it. The prob of a deal is very high so any announcement of a deal will only provide scant information let say 1 bit. With it the dax poised to break through 1000, the extent of all in dax from Jan 1 is just 15% and soon it will be above the correction level of 10% but this will not be reported. Similarly for the S&P. 

9. A pretense of another down 100 close coming up as the S&P falls form 2583 to 25 65 and below in 15 minutes.

10. "Corona Virus Turning Point Will Be Earlier Than Expected, Nobel Laureate Says"

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