Nov

11

Superforecasting by Tetlock is making the internet rounds. Grist or chaff for aspiring prognosticators?

"Having a Crystal Ball":

What emerges is readable and laudable, if less than earth-shattering. In the end, the findings are, well, predictable: an intelligent person who devotes time to researching a problem, narrows the parameters of the question, interrogates the hypothesis, and monitors new information will be better able to predict the future.

From the superforecasting website:

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events.

A rather lengthy "master class" on the subject:

Over the weekend in Napa, Tetlock held five classes, which are being presented by Edge in their entirety (8.5 hours of video and audio) along with accompanying transcripts (61,000 words). Commenting on the event, one of the participants wrote: "The interesting thing is that this is not about a latest trend that might scale in one or two years, but about real change that might take a decade or two. Also, these masterclasses are not only much more profound than any of the conferences popularizing contemporary intellectualism. The possibility to spend that much time with the clairvoyants in a setting like this also gives you a sense of community so much greater than any of the advertised."


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2 Comments so far

  1. Rich Berger on November 12, 2015 11:15 am

    Ok, what predictions have they made that have come true? What are they currently predicting?

  2. Pitt Maner on November 12, 2015 8:17 pm

    I believe the following is the website for the current questions and all are able to join the contest now. Many questions are geopolitical in nature.

    https://www.gjopen.com/

    Media article links containing several stories related to the the questions asked of the earlier superforecaster tournament and how the top 2% or so performed can be found here:

    http://www.goodjudgment.com/media.html

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