Nov
21
One Wakes up at 3 AM, from Victor Niederhoffer
November 21, 2014 |
"Dear, why are you getting up, you've told me a million times that you can't make money over night. Do your patterns show anything?"
"I have a hunch today. The centrals are all going to follow Japan and bull things up. There's much potential energy out there. I have a little position in China."
"How many times have you told me that you won't trade Asia again after what they did to you in (she looks around 3 times), Thailand."
3 hours pass. China lowers its rates. The European, US, and Asian markets have one of the 3 or 4 biggest rises ever.
"Honey, they're way up."
"But they were at a high yesterday. You're not short are you?"
"No, this time is different, they gave us a break for once."
"In that case you should take some chips off the table and send it to me for a rainy day."
"I knew you'd say that Susan. It's going to be a very happy black Friday and Christmas out there. The wealth effect et al".
"From the gleeful tone in your voice, I know that you better call it a day today and take a cold shower. Santa's going to have some black coals for your stocking unless you send that wire to me".
Anatoly Veltman comments:
Should the announcement be viewed as a very temporary factor? Or is it a policy turn?
Jim Sogi writes:
Seems a lot of the action has been happening at night. Not sure if its the Asians, or the Europeans or both pushing things around when things are thin and sleepy. Then the day session comes around and its like molasses sets in or the freeze slowing everything down. I remember some studies Brent and others did a while back that showed most of the market gains came from the overnight session. c-o vs o-c. Recently it seems like there are more violent moves, which are reversed during the day.
Anatoly Veltman writes:
I have one guess to venture. See, preponderance of participation during Asia and Europe is of good old directional nature: only those who are willing to stick their neck out place orders through out those hours. Alas, during the U.S. hours participation is dominated by U.S.-domiciled penny-pinching algos, who remain market-flat.
David Lillienfeld asks:
Naive thought: Could folks in China be using the Shanghai-HK link to buy shares there and then try to sell the corresponding ADRs in the US or Europe?
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There is a little place in Llano Texas called Coopers BBQ (old fashioned pit BBQ). Lunch there would bring much clarety to todays trading, I promise!
THe little woman hums this song behind me as I trade. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-lIOvZXDUAA