Sep

15

History, from Victor Niederhoffer

September 15, 2014 |

With all the talk about history, one should note that the markets had a historic move last week. Bonds went down 9 of 10 days, a total of 4 1/2 points, the last 6 days in a row something they do only once a year. Crude and the grains and gold and silver are down about 10% in the last month. The stock market is still at an all time high relative to the fixed incomes even after declining one % last week. People forget that bond yields are determined by expected inflation at a time like this, and that gold has nothing to do with international tensions and corn has nothing to do with the size of the harvest. What a time for great macroscopic trades, and level thinking.


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  1. Mark Johnson VIP Sales White Glove Moving on September 15, 2014 1:16 pm

    Hi Victor,

    Saw a great true documentary on the Discovery channel a few weeks back and it seemed to have some market lessons. it was unique in that there was actual film footage taken by the passengers/victims.

    it started out innocently enough with 22 tourists going on a sunset whale watching cruise on a double deck 60 foot sightseeing boat.
    the sky was ever so slightly overcast with slight rain. The 22 passenger/tourists were filming themselves and showing there excitement. A few in passing mentioned the weather with one man saying to his beautiful wife maybe we shouldn’t go I am a bit nervous. the sexy wife said oh stop worrying (sexy broker offering some stock in a slightly down market?)
    The captain now exits and gives a small speech and says oh don’t worry about the weather I have been doing this for 35 years (your broker saying great market buy any dips and don’t worry)
    enjoy your sightseeing trip and whales.
    Now the film footage shows the excited people onboard looking forward to seeing the whales as the sun sets.
    Unfortunately the whales hang out by an island where the seals hang out and where the great whites also hang out.
    the weather unexpectedly became a bit worse, the captain made an error and a black swan ensued whereby the boat overturned-all of this was filmed by various passengers. most of them fell into the water and were panicked. they stuck together for some time and then on had his leg taken off by a great white and the ocean filled with blood attracting a feeding frenzy of great whites, which the experts commented happens 100% of the time. But something happened that the experts have never observed-all of the great whites left the area to make room for the boss a 35 foot great white who had the entire feeding ground for himself (like the markets making way for a great whale, central bank or the like?)
    This great white ate the woman who told her husband not to worry as she clung to a giant buoy(actual footage showed this gruesome scene)Even now with coast guard helicopters above the currents became to strong and people were drifting away. they were close to rescuing 1 chap but were 1 minute to slow as the same great white took him. all told 3 people were killed and many injured.
    Sometimes you just don’t know when the markets will do something completely unaccounted for or unexpected in ways that no one imagined..

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