Feb

2

If you had bought the SP500 index at the end of each calendar week since 1950, in the ten years subsequent to each buy, how much of the time would you never go negative?

Using SP500 weekly closes up until 520 weeks ago (7/8/96), 277/2428 buys never saw red (11.4%). Another way to look at it is that for long-term investors, about 8/9 weekly stock purchases were underwater at some time during the next ten years.

This sounds rather unpleasant for holders of buying, however the return for the ten years (overlapping, for all weeks) averaged +40%, with 96% positive. The few negatives were the unlucky folks (like parents of someone close) who bought stocks in the mid 60's and held them to the mid-70's.

In memory of such long extinct anguish, here are the buy weeks which lost ten years later:

Date             10y ret
03/16/64     -0.21 (-21%)
05/18/64     -0.19
03/09/64     -0.18
05/25/64     -0.17
02/24/64     -0.16
06/08/64     -0.16
06/01/64     -0.15
05/04/64     -0.15
06/29/64     -0.14
05/11/64     -0.14
06/15/64     -0.13
07/06/64     -0.12
04/06/64     -0.12
06/22/64     -0.11
03/02/64     -0.10
04/27/64     -0.10
03/23/64     -0.10
03/30/64     -0.10
07/13/64     -0.08
04/13/64     -0.08
07/31/67     -0.08
02/17/64     -0.08
08/14/67     -0.08
09/11/67     -0.07
02/03/64     -0.07
09/18/67     -0.07
08/07/67     -0.07
02/10/64     -0.07
11/12/68     -0.06
04/20/64     -0.06
11/25/68     -0.06
07/20/64     -0.06
10/21/68     -0.05
09/05/67     -0.05
06/10/68     -0.05
12/02/68     -0.05
06/03/68     -0.05
02/23/65     -0.05
07/17/67     -0.05
07/24/67     -0.05
11/18/68     -0.05
07/10/67     -0.04
12/09/68     -0.04
04/29/68     -0.04
08/21/67     -0.04
10/14/68     -0.04
09/25/67     -0.04
08/28/67     -0.04
11/04/68     -0.04
02/01/65     -0.03
05/27/68     -0.03
09/14/64     -0.03
10/28/68     -0.03
10/02/67     -0.03
05/06/68     -0.03
12/16/68     -0.03
04/22/68     -0.03
09/30/68     -0.02
12/23/68     -0.02
05/17/65     -0.02
12/30/68     -0.02
07/27/64     -0.02
04/08/68     -0.02
07/03/67     -0.02
01/27/64     -0.02
08/12/68     -0.02
06/17/68     -0.02
01/25/65     -0.01
10/07/68     -0.01
03/08/65     -0.01
07/01/68     -0.01
04/07/69     -0.01
03/01/65     -0.01
06/26/67     -0.01
03/15/65     -0.01
07/15/68     -0.01
08/10/64     -0.01
01/18/65     -0.01
04/17/67     -0.01
02/15/65     -0.01
05/24/65     -0.01
05/13/68     -0.01
05/20/68     -0.01


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