Feb

17

Say you're a little perplexed by a slow creep-up in commodities last few sessions. On the one hand, most commodities have been now climbing day-in day-out for months - so naturally a contrarian, or value seeker would look to be a seller. On the other hand, you are not really getting a tremendous spike, a blow-off into which to sell. So here comes Cotton to your rescue!

You see, Cotton just nearly tripled in the two-quarter period. Obviously, it's a top-of-the-needle daily war of attrition right now between the Longs and the Shorts in that market. Margin hikes by the exchange, price-limit moves adjustments and all that jazz… So watch closely; and the moment that Cotton finally reverses - there will be your indicator that the drift is changing in commodities. Whether it will be orchestrated (in Cotton) by one or another power-party - the jig will be up that, temporarily, Bull market deflation is favored by someone with influence

Ken Drees writes: 

A friend just called me this morning saying he heard on Glenn Beck radio about cotton and clothing price hikes– I would be in the cotton correction camp, if I traded this item–usually when a not often talked market is in the news it's time to consider exit door locations.

Anatoly Veltman reponds:

Because of likely limit lock-down in many of the sessions– the outsiders will be confused as to "real" dimension of price changes and balance-of-power day to day. My point was that someone not taking position in Cotton per se– will still get a hint of shifting wind for all of the inflated markets! Remember that today's markets are arguably the most manipulated in decades. Thus, it's doubly important to be tipped-off as to when the flexions decide to loosen the upward pressure valve.

Rocky Humbert writes: 

I think Anatoly's focus on cotton as a "tell" is misplaced. I think the entire commodity complex is keying off of Netflix stock (NFLX). As soon as the farmers stop watching videos and get back on their tractors, Netflix stock will crater, and so will the grains…

(Calculating the R-squared between Netflix and one's favorite commodity is left as an exercise for the reader.)

Craig Mee adds:

Talking to a mate in Singapore today in a trip to the sunny island, and he mentioned a farmer in China, who has stock piled cotton: "he has 6 tonnes of the stuff, taking up every inch of his shack, stock piling with price where it is, no interest in selling." I suppose why would you, with price ferociously in the one direction. Though two questions remain, is this a trait of the Chinese race in general… accumlate accumlate… and for such a specie position…is it another reverse market indicator?


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