Jun

2

This May sported a 3.3% gain in the S&P500, the biggest since 2003. Going back to 1987, however, May 2007 is not that unusual:

Date      Return
05/1990  0.092
05/1997  0.059
05/2003  0.051
05/1991  0.039
05/1995  0.036
05/1989  0.035
05/2007  0.033
05/2005  0.030
05/1996  0.023
05/1993  0.023
05/1994  0.012
05/2004  0.012
05/2001  0.005
05/1988  0.003
05/1992  0.001
05/2002 -0.009
05/1998 -0.019
05/2000 -0.022
05/1999 -0.025
05/2006 -0.031

Somewhat more unusual was May 2006, having the lowest return of the series. Could it be that fears of repetition of 2/27/07 and 5/06 goosed risk premium enough to produce new record close?

Individual 95% CIs for mean based on pooled standard deviation:

Level N  Mean     StDev
1    20  0.0122  0.0365
2    20  0.0012  0.0371
3    20  0.0064  0.0377
4    20  0.0139  0.0375
5    20  0.0173  0.0310
6    19  0.0027  0.0324
7    19  0.0066  0.0417
8    19 -0.0110  0.0503
9    19 -0.0052  0.0469
10   19  0.0189  0.0334
11   19  0.0199  0.0425
12   20  0.0225  0.0357


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