May

6

It's hard to test the overnight fat finger of fate bar on the jobs, but like the clearing fire, like the probing action, they seem to have a clearing function. Last year there were a few of the night spikes ups and the subsequent follow through. A lot of brush has grown between here and 1527 cash SPX in the last five years, but the function of the futures seems to be to probe, peek a light in the darkness ahead, clear away the brush for the main army which follows behind. I can't see how the army will not push through the short distance.

With only 500 stocks in the S&P to absorb a global glut of productivity, industriousness, striving, youth, inventiveness, and of the world, These are 500 of the best, systematically weeding out the losers, and it seems that there is much upward pressure and bias on those precious assets. Look around and see how crowded it is everywhere you go, and how prosperous and well fed everyone seems. Consider the linear rise in prices inexorably higher even to the point of exponential rise. Remember the 80's, the late 90's. Bears are trapped, break outs up, every dip bid back in a rush.

Consider the new highs in the Dow and the proximity of the S&P highs, current daily multiyear highs, the breakdown of many old systems and cycles. It's easy to say and see after it happens, but in practice its a very difficult environment when moving to and into new ground, and the old rules no longer seem to work so well.


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