Nov
12
David Hand’s probability lever, from Nils Poertner
November 12, 2025 |
intellectual support / motivation to look at more extreme scenarios from time to time (extreme only appearing in the moment of course).
Hand writing: The Improbability Principle
The law of the probability lever is to do with choosing models. With poor assumptions even highly likely events can seem very improbable. Small changes in initial conditions can have an extremely large effect on outcomes.
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