Oct
22
Government shutdown question, from Cagdas Tuna
October 22, 2025 |
Are the furloughed government employees going to be counted as unemployed? I believe they will be which will be considered as a huge green light for 50bps rate cut in the December FOMC. This shutdown is the perfect storm for Trump’s “Fire Powell and get rates to 0%” scenario.
Bill Rafter responds:
The requirements for being “Unemployed” are that (a) the person is not working , and (b) that person is “looking for work”. I believe the latter qualification would disqualify those furloughed from being considered as unemployed. Not only the shutdown [will delay BLS releases], but the recently nominated BLS head, E.J. Antoni has withdrawn his name from nomination. So BLS is headless.
Alex Castaldo comments:
That is good news for all statisticians, I am sure he is a wonderful guy but he had a reputation for mistakes in calculations.
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