Aug

8

Trickery and deception

August 8, 2025 |

a new way of looking at markets and real life:

In 1953, a top-secret manual teaching agents sleight-of-hand and other deception techniques was written for the CIA by America’s then most famous magician. All copies were believed destroyed by the CIA’s purge of the infamous MKULTRA documents in 1973, and there was no proof of the manual’s existence . . . until a copy was discovered among the CIA’s recently declassified archives.

Big Al responds:

Speaking of the CIA, one is reminded of this manual:

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, by Richards J. Heuer, Jr.

And something from it (p. 108):

Analysis of competing hypotheses involves seeking evidence to refute hypotheses. The most probable hypothesis is usually the one with the least evidence against it, not the one with the most evidence for it. Conventional analysis generally entails looking for evidence to confirm a favored hypothesis.

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