Apr

29

a terrible warning form 1956 Road to Serfdom: the bulk of the intellectual community almost automatically favors any expansion of government power so long as advertised as a way to protect individuals form bad corps, relieve poverty. anything goes, "protect the environment, promote equality."

one has been reading Forty Studies that Changed Psychology in conjunction with my visit with several prominent psychologists at Gail's 80th. while the personages don't subscribe to these studies, I am amazed at the the self-serving biases.

studies in the main don't take account of multiple comparisons (they tend to implictly look at many hypotheses and choose one that works). I will review some of these studies but the study on predicting the outcome of marriages with a slope as the key confirmation is terribly indicative.

a good thing to keep at hand when visited with a loss in markets or life:

Why the Giannis Antetokounmpo ‘Failure’ Speech Is a Viral Phenomenon

a little banking-crisis news is what the dr. ordered to set everything up with bonds and stocks at 20 day highs.

how does the next 8 months look given that the bonds and S&P are up during the first 4 months? it has happened only 8 times since 1996: 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017. strangely that run of 8 years up was the only times they were both up.

during that period the S&P advanced from 10325 to 27028. that 170% run were the golden years. S&P fell once in 2011 by 6%, in 5 of those remaining years, the S&P rose to end of year by 10%, the other two just a small rise. all prices adjusted for drift and contract changes.

How is the S&P during next 8 months given bonds and S&P up first 4 months? predict up 7% in next 8 months. strangely the next two months looks down with the last half of year showing a 8% rise. bad however is refusal of Germany to catch up to US. depends imho on whether perfect father continues to stay ahead in presidential odds. of course with 8 observations all clustered form 2010 to 2018, margin of uncertainty is great.

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  1. Rod Clifton on May 9, 2023 11:05 am

    Curiously, the ownership of the Bucks didn’t share Antetokounmpo’s attitude to the loss of the series to Miami and fired the coach. It seems writing a cheque for $39 million vs receiving one changes one’s perspective.

  2. TK on May 9, 2023 1:24 pm

    at least Budenholzer can soothe himself with the $16M he still has coming over the next two years. sadly, his brother died in a car accident during the playoffs, but this was not announced until after the firing.

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