Sep

27

Events and probabilities

September 27, 2022 |

events i am looking at: (1) Pres prob of winning at new high, (2) 3 20-day lows in a row in S&P [as of Sunday], (3) almost every commodity down 20% in last month, (4) 30-year bonds and crude down 7% to new yearly low on thur to new 120-day low, (5) bitcoin below 2000, gold at new lo at 1652.

with every market down 20% from a few weeks ago, how insensitive and virtue-signaling are the CBs with their unanimous and irrevocable stance to beat fixed income down. and will we have to wait for friday before they stop their virtue signaling?

like the dark bicyclist they ride the wave, and he's now for the first time more likely than the baseball player from florida at 17%.

there's something apropos of all the CBs reaffirming their idolatry of the tall chair from 1986 who hated capitalism like they do and so many others these days. but eventually the "preferred measure of inflation" announced on Friday will hit the real world.

don't believe that I have approx 9200 followers normal way by gradual accumulation. only way I could stop the decline was by promoting at $5 each increment. on the other hand all of my tweets are canceled because the algo doesn't realize that the more the unifier rises, the better for the S&P.

a typical recent commodity move:

Lumber Prices Fall Back to Around Their Pre-Covid Levels
Rising interest rates have taken an ax to one of the pandemic's hottest commodities

Vic's twitter feed


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