Apr

15

Lately the local paper has had front page headlines on how to eradicate a growing seagull problem. But tonight I witnessed a newfound appreciation of their skills.

The seagulls flew along next to me at the front of the boat against a very strong headwind. Using light reflected off the water to sight fish, and then using this stiff breeze they swooped down to nail their prey. After missing more times than not, they built enough speed that they actually glided back into their original position to undergo the same sequence of events once again. Those who persevered were rewarded as we came into port and the boat speed decreased, and the success rate became much higher for those who were successful using the power of the headwind to increase speed and fly away from the pursuers.

From a market viewpoint they reminded me of counter trend traders in a roaring market. They waited for the right setup. But time again they failed with only the odd one being successful. As the momentum of the market slowed, more and more were able to get the prize, however, it wasn't a meal for a lifetime, just enough to keep them in the hunt for next time.

However, some smart ones, like Jonathon Livingston ("begin by knowing you have already arrived"), instead of going the whole journey waited near port where conditions were more favorable, and just traveled the last 500 meters in, where the success rate increased exponentially, maybe something to consider for us all.


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