Aug

14

"US Agencies Help Afghanistan Exploit Mineral Wealth":

We have identified somewhere between 10 and 12 world-class copper, gold, iron ore and rare earth deposits that no one knew were there," Jack Medlin, regional specialist for the Asia-Pacific region in the USGS international programs office, told the audience. "In our 2007 publication, we gave an estimate of undiscovered mineral resources for the country, and … you can add up the tonnages of copper, lead, gold, iron, silver and so forth. … But this country has many more world-class mineral deposits than most countries in the world, if not more than any country," he said. That doesn't mean it will be easy to turn these resources into national income, Medlin told American Forces Press Service.

Aug

12

Some recent advances in technology:

"Avatars to Assist Passengers at New York City Airports" :

"They're the best kind of worker. Sarah, Libby and Marie don't take time off. They don't get sick. They always smile at the passengers.Just don't ask them any questions. They can't answer them. Because they're not humans — they're virtual Customer Care Representatives, or, as they're more commonly known, avatars."

And the 3D advertising is becoming quite eye-catching too. Check out this Star Trekish dematerialization.

And finally, who will need to fly cross country to meetings? Just send your avatar over the net at a fraction of the cost:

"Billionaires: Russian Mogul Wants to Upload Your Brains Into Immortality":

"Earlier this year, a Russian media mogul named Dmitry Itskov formally announced his intention to disembody our conscious minds and upload them to a hologram–an avatar–by 2045. In other words he outlined a plan to achieve immortality, removing the human mind from the physical constraints presented by the biological human body. He was serious. And now, in a letter to the members of the Forbes World’s Billionaire’s List, he’s offering up that immortality to the world’s 1,266 richest people."

And lastly, here is indeed a technological leap beyond Duane Hanson's "lifelike" figures.

Aug

12

Scientists find that success breeds success in sports:

"In the 1980s, psychologists showed that the hot hand idea in basketball was based on the misperception of random sequences. Now a statistical study of cricket scores suggests that it may have been premature to abandon the idea that success breeds success in sport"

"The 'hot hand' idea in sport is the belief that players who have had success in the past are more likely to be successful in the future. The most famous example is in basketball where many fans believe that a player is more likely to make a shot if he or she has successfully made the last 2 or 3 shots. In other words, the player has a 'hot hand'.

Back in the 1980s, three cognitive psychologists decided to take a closer look at this idea. Their studies showed that basketball fans indeed believed in the hot hand idea in shot sequences. They then examined the actual shot success rate of specific players to see if there was any truth in the idea.

The results were a surprise, at least for basketball fans. While some players are certainly better shooters than other players, the psychologists found no evidence of a hot hand phenomenon. The chances of success on the next shot are not correlated with the success of the last shot. In other words the hot hand idea is a fallacy.

The psychologists attributed the effect to a general misunderstanding of random sequences: long sequences of successful (and unsuccessful) shots naturally occur at random. They just look as if the player has a hot hand.

(A similar effect occurs in coin tossing experiments when people think a tail is more likely to occur after a long sequence of heads. This is known as the gambler's fallacy.)

In 1985, they published their results in a paper called "The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences" and since then hot hand effect has been generally considered a fallacy.

But as a sports fan, it's hard to let go of the idea that success breeds success. Indeed, there has been huge debate since then over whether hot hand effects exist or not.

Today, researchers reveal that the hot hand effect is alive and well in the game of cricket.

The evidence comes from the work of Haroldo Ribeiro at the Universidade Estadual de Maringa in that well known cricket-loving country, Brazil, and a couple of pals.

These guys have examined the rate of scoring in three types of international cricket match played between 2002 and 2011. The three types are T20, which lasts for about 3 hours, one day games which last for about 8 hours and Test cricket, which lasts for five days.

The hot hand phenomenon is a type of memory effect since future performance is determined by events in the past. Because of this, there are well-established statistical techniques for revealing its presence.

Ribeiro and co duly put the data through its paces, examining not only the evolution of the scores over time but their variance too. They say they can clearly see long range memory effects at work. "This result shows that there is long-range memory in the score evolution… positive values are followed by positive values and negative values are followed by negative values much more frequently than by chance," they say.

So if a cricket team starts off scoring well it is more likely to score strongly later in its innings. Conversely, if a team starts badly, it is more likely to continue this poor run.

Interestingly, this effect is just as clear in Test cricket over 5 days as it is in T20 cricket over three hours. So the memory effect works over extremely long timescales, compared for example to basketball shooting sequences.

"The long-range persistent behavior in the score evolution not only indicates the existence of this phenomenon in cricket, but also suggests that this phenomenon can act over a very long temporal scale," say Ribeiro and co.

That's an interesting result. Cricket is a hugely psychological game in which confidence plays a major role. If confidence is contagious, it makes sense that early success can lead to success in the future.

Ribeiro and co say their methods can be applied to other sports as well so it should be possible to see the statistical fingerprint of a hot hand effect in other areas too.

The next question is whether this will effect sports strategy in future and in what way. Suggestions in the comments section below.

Aug

12

I recently watched 56 Up. It is a fascinating British documentary series I first saw at college over 30 years ago.

This is an interesting article about the series:

"The film is about the heroism in everyday life, which isn’t the stuff of Hollywood movies but is the stuff everybody has to go through. And if there’s one thing I do know, it’s that everybody has a story."

The Wiki

Aug

8

Article of the Day: "Billionaire Democrat Jeff Greene Fears Revolt of the Poor"

The man who made his fortune hedging against the real estate market– and since 2009 accumulating mortgage-backed securities– still wants to represent the poor, improve their lot, convince his rich friends they should pay more taxes…

Pressler draws a picture of Greene, 57, worth an estimated $2.1 billion, as a man who lives in fear of a populist revolt, a plundering uprising of America's "poor people." As a member of the country's richest 1 
percent, Greene claims the nation's wealthiest people, people like 
himself, should pay more in taxes willingly– "buy a little democracy 
insurance"– because one day, "if you have 50,000 angry people coming 
across the river, you think you're safe?"

Pitt T. Maner III writes: 

The revolutionary route into Palm Beach would be across the Southern Blvd. bridge which spans the intracoastal waterway (not exactly a river, but close enough). Fortunately for Mr. Greene, Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago would be the first mansion encountered by the envisioned, angry hordes.

The only invasion activity seen at present are the wondrous sea turtles that are laying eggs in good numbers on the Atlantic Ocean beach side. The turtle hatchlings begin their life cycle in Florida and follow a general circle around the Azores to Florida and back. They are the endangered species and the "farmers" who are important to the ocean ecosystems.

Aug

8

"Recycled Cardboard Bicycles for $ 9?" : 

They are made of recycled cardboard, can withstand water and humidity, cost nearly nothing – and might change the concept of green vehicle.

Izhar Gafni is a Kibbutz resident, who decided to prove to his fellow engineers that he could make a bicycle at nearly no cost. "They said it was impossible".

One wonders what other engineering and construction applications this folded, modified, recycled cardboard (or enhanced version of similar, ubiquitous materials ) might have.

Jul

31

1) From a  forthcoming book on the use of algorithms which looks interesting.

"What started on Wall Street - a takeover at the hands of emotionless algorithms - has now spread to all corners of our lives. Music that sounds as if it could have been written by Bach was, in fact, composed by an algorithm. The best analysis at the CIA doesn't come from experienced agents, but from an algorithm. The best mind reader in the world isn't a psychiatrist or a psychologist, but a set of five million algorithms that knows what you're thinking and what you'll do in almost any situation. How did we get here?"

2) An article from Steiner on algorithms and creativity:

"Music X-Ray's algorithms use Fourier transforms—a method of separating a signal from the "noise" of complex data—to isolate a song's base melody, beat, tempo, rhythm, octave, pitch, chords, progression, sonic brilliance, and several other factors that catch a listener's ear. The software then builds three-dimensional models of the song based on these properties and compares it with hit songs of the past. Putting a just-analyzed song on the screen with No. 1 tracks of yore shows a kind of cloud structure filled in with dots representing songs. The hits tend to be grouped in clusters, which reveal similar underlying structures. Get close to the middle of one of those clusters and you may have a hit."

Jul

18

I recently read the wiki page about The Endowment Effect.

Basically, it says the one values his possession much more than others value it.

Thaler conducted the following experiment. He randomly gave some participants a mug, which sells for $6 in a store. He then asked the ones now owning the mug to give a minimum price below which they would not sell the mug, and asked the ones not having the mug to give a maximum price above which they would not buy the mug. It turns out that the owners valued it for $5.25, while the bidders valued it at $2.75. He concluded that the very fact that the persons owned the mug made them give it a higher value.

Very interesting research. But I wonder if the conclusion is as that simple.

First, I wonder what would happen if the owners were asked to buy another mug. How would they now value it? Since it is not a critical item to have and they already own one, it is reasonable to believe that they would bid an even lower price than the bids from those who didn't own it, isn't it?

Second, what about selling short is allowed in the experiment? If the people who didn't own the mug were asked to price it if they would sell it short. I bet their price would be even higher than what the owners offered, and very likely be higher than the $6 store price.

Any input on this, please?

Gary Rogan writes:

Leo, I'm not sure it's productive to attempt to extend these "effects", and there are many of them, beyond their original definition without doing actual experiments. This particular effect seems to be as simple as "defend what's yours harder than you would attempt to get the same thing from someone else", one of the ancient evolutionary developments. Primitive (as well as advanced) animals demonstrate the same effect when fighting for territory, that's why the challenger loses most of the times. Of course someone who has a relatively useless (from their original standpoint) mug to begin with doesn't want another one. Personally I find it more interesting to think about the practical value of the original effect. In the behaviorist books it's supposed to manifest itself by "holding on to losers too long". Every time I read this I always think about whether the logical conclusion is that a rational person should always sell "losers". Sometimes they bring up the tax loss effect, and that's fair but it doesn't get to the heart of the matter. Considering this question, and all the robotic trading that goes on, how would one take advantage of this effect? 

Pitt T. Maner III writes: 

The self-storage business might be an area where this effect is felt most strongly. There is a lot of rent money being paid (by baby boomers and those who have left houses) and property used to store old things instead of buying new.

Rocky Humbert writes:

This is a fascinating subject for exploration. Being only slightly tongue-in-cheek, I wonder what effect negative real interest rates have on the willingness of people to hold onto "junk" ? To the extent that "the cost of carry" (i.e. monthly rental fees) are small, hoarding is a rational behavior. Also, there was an article in the WSJ last week discussing the effects of "clutter" on marriages and home life. Lastly, there may be a "depression-era" and "aging demographic" effect occurring here. In the situations where I've (sadly) had to empty out elderly relative's apartments, I've discovered that depression-era people hoard useless things like return envelopes from bills, archaic car and doorkeys, memorabilia from bygone days, etc. I think that there are many interesting factors at work in this trend — and there is market-related utility in thinking about them.

Jim Sogi writes:

It's really hard getting rid of one's "junk". There is a weird attachment to the stuff. Its almost painful to throw stuff away. Then there's the issue of getting rid of the junk, and then needing that item the next day. Feng Shui has some good tips on clearing the clutter. There must be some sort of hardwired effect causing one to collect stuff. Look at the bag people pushing around carts of junk.

Craig Mee writes: 

I'm with you, Jim, and in the tropics, clutter, dirt and smells brings mosquitoes, which is a very good reason to keep things clean.

On a side note. I've had a lot of trouble with mosquitoes, though I went to a friend open air villa the other evening , and when dusk hit, no mosquitoes ? I looked around and put it down to a) everything was white, walls , furniture, coverings, a well cared for garden, two ceiling fans, (some sea breeze) and importantly I thought …lights under the table we were sitting at. ie everything was clean , tidy, and white, with air.

Further, I read once, if you haven't worn clothes for a season, toss them. That's certainly worked for me.

No doubt those who make money in one particular stock , get attached, (you see it)…it clutters their mind, and they will drag any positive out of fundamentals, value, whatever to get back involved. Got to clear the clutter, or put it out of sight, to free the mind.
 

Rudolf Hauser writes:

In considering the impact of the pure psychological effect on value from ownership, one should not ignore the economic effect. The cost of the purchase is not just the purchase price of the item but the value of all the effort that went into finding the item in the first place and how difficult it might be to be able to buy it again. Then there is the risk of the replacement being defective or other problems in the acquisition thereof that might happen. One also has to consider the potential cost of needing an item and not being able to acquire its replacement in time to meet that need. As an example, I once wanted to buy a new ink eraser to replace the one that wore out. I then found that I had to run around to seemingly countless stores to find this inexpensive item –an effort countless times more expensive in opportunity cost than the price of the item itself. Needless to say, when I finally found the item, I purchased a whole box full to insure that I never would have to spend so much in search costs again for that item. Nor would I have sold those again except for much more than I paid for them.

As for the psychological impact, say one has purchased an object of great beauty at a price that subsequently appreciated considerably. The new higher price might be one at which one would not consider it prudent to buy given the overall state of one's financial resources even though it is an item one might wish one could buy. But already possessing it one has the excuse for buying it via not selling it because one already had done the deed in effect. When an item is not unique or rare and is easily replaced when a new one is needed, one would not suspect that same tendency to value the item in possession more than the same item not in possession. It would be interesting to see if this effect still persists in that case and how it compares to the former.

A stock would be of the latter type at least in small quantities. With larger quantities there is always the uncertainty as to how much such purchases might impact the price, which would the economic reason as opposed to a psychological reason. A psychological reason might be the emotional difficulty of making a decision that one is not anxious to repeat, ignoring the fact that with an investment an implicit decision has to be made every day as to whether to continue to hold or not. The difference is that to sell or purchase is an active decision whereas to hold can be a passive decision. In effect holding is also a way of putting off a decision.

Jul

13

This is a very interesting short film about risking life and limb to bring a delicious gooseneck barnacle to market:

"The Life of a Percebeiro"

In the northwest corner of Spain, in the coastal region of Galicia, fishermen boat into fjord-like inlets called rias and rappel from slick rocks to collect gooseneck barnacles in crashing surf. They hang down in pairs and watch each other's backs as they scrape and claw the crustaceans from slick six-foot sections of barnacle-tiled rocks battered by frigid waves.

And this is another interesting article about them

"Galicia's Hard to Come By Barnacles"

Structuring their lives around every subtlety of this unpredictable climate and treacherous coast, fishermen must wait for the proper tide (it should be as low as possible to expose the percebes) and ideal sea conditions (relative calm), and watch for signs of strong undercurrents or of brewing storms. Any conditions that are less than ideal keep them idle at port, sometimes for days at a time.

I bet they are wonderful with a local white wine.

They have a short piece here showing how they made the film and it shows the fish market with the price of the barnacles—love how the fisherman (at 1:05) points to eye to tell the cameraman to watch. Quite fascinating.

Interesting use of camera on small, remote control helicopter too.
 

Jul

12

I recently read this interesting article: "Vast deposits of Gold and other Ores Lure Seabed Miners".

Quite a leap from the 70s when scooping up manganese nodules off the sea floor was to be the next big thing. As a side note there is a very good exhibit of a black smoker in the American Museum of Natural History in NYC:

These finds are fueling a gold rush as nations, companies and entrepreneurs race to stake claims to the sulfide-rich areas, which dot the volcanic springs of the frigid seabed. The prospectors — motivated by dwindling resources on land as well as record prices for gold and other metals — are busy hauling up samples and assessing deposits valued at trillions of dollars.

Based on the International Seabed Authority website, exploration activity is indeed picking up:

"If all these applications are approved, this will bring the number of active exploration contracts issued by the Authority to 17, compared to only 8 in 2010."

Jul

3

The Hanging Gardens of Babylon and Arcosanti come to mind:

"Singapores Supertrees Light Up the Night"

"The Supertrees, which vary in height between 80 and 160 feet, are made of four parts: reinforcement concrete core, trunk, planting panels of the living skin, and canopy. Just like non-mechanized forests, the large canopies operate as temperature moderators, absorbing and dispersing heat, as well as providing shelter to visitors walking below. This suite of technologies can help to achieve at least 30% savings in energy consumption, compared to conventional methods of cooling, according to the project’s website. Special sky bridges connect a few of the trees, for those brave enough to walk above Earth at the height of the top of skyscrapers. "

Jul

1

This is a complicated ecological subject of a cyclical nature:

"This may be the largest epidemic we've experienced, but it's far from our first," says Sky Stephens, entomologist for the Colorado State Forest Service. "We had a lot of forests of uniform age, very limited forest-management activities, and we've spent a lot of time suppressing fire. All of this allowed a very large percentage of Colorado's pine forests to enter their most susceptible life phase at the same time. And then we had a significant period of drought."

Beetles thrive in drought years. Pines respond to beetle attacks by oozing resin, "pitching out" the invaders, but a lack of water weakens that defense process. Well-watered trees have been known to drive out thousands of beetles; a drought-plagued tree can succumb to a handful. If the beetles manage to set up house in the tree bark, they infect the tree with a blue-stain fungus that serves to nourish their young while strangling the tree's hydrology and eventually killing it.

……"The forests are going to look more like what they were when the European settlers came to Colorado," Mitton says. "That's not an awful thing. Once the aspen are doing well, the lodgepole will come back and shade them out — and there we go again."'


Are the beetles setting the stage for larger, more severe wildfires? And are fires bringing on beetle epidemics? Contrary to popular opinion, the answer to both questions seems to be "no."

Jun

27

The Lipstick Effect:

"Furthermore, we discovered that the lipstick effect and a woman's desire to attract a mate with resources are unrelated to her independent resource access. Women of both higher and lower socioeconomic status expressed an increased desire to buy luxury beauty products when primed with recession cues. This suggests that an uncertain economic climate leads women to heighten mate attraction effort irrespective of their own resource need.

 More Lipstick:

Although consumer spending typically declines in economic recessions, some observers have noted that recessions appear to increase women's spending on beauty products—the so-called lipstick effect. Using both historical spending data and rigorous experiments, the authors examine how and why economic recessions influence women's consumer behavior. Findings revealed that recessionary cues—whether naturally occurring or experimentally primed—decreased desire for most products (e.g., electronics, household items). However, these cues consistently increased women's desire for products that increase attractiveness to mates—the first experimental demonstration of the lipstick effect. Additional studies show that this effect is driven by women's desire to attract mates with resources and depends on the perceived mate attraction function served by these products. In addition to showing how and why economic recessions influence women's desire for beauty products, this research provides novel insights into women's mating psychology, consumer behavior, and the relationship between the two

Jun

23

This is a study with possible implications for future growth. The coastal area around Senegal has an interesting combination of high productivity and lower depths to groundwater:

"Here we present the first quantitative continent-wide maps of aquifer storage and potential borehole yields in Africa based on an extensive review of available maps, publications and data. We estimate total groundwater storage in Africa to be 0.66 million km3 (0.36–1.75 million km3). Not all of this groundwater storage is available for abstraction, but the estimated volume is more than 100 times estimates of annual renewable freshwater resources on Africa. Groundwater resources are unevenly distributed: the largest groundwater volumes are found in the large sedimentary aquifers in the North African countries Libya, Algeria, Egypt and Sudan. "

And as noted in NY Times:

This water holds enormous potential to help people and nations move out of poverty, produce more food and better adapt to climate change. But it also could lead to tensions between neighboring countries.

Jun

12

A special issue of Science devoted to the human gut microbiota is out this month– an area of study attracting much attention.

One of the journal articles discusses how a Chinese scientist, who studies gut microbiota in rats and humans, changed his gut biota and greatly improved his health by eating "prebiotics", fermented Chinese yam, bitter melon, and a diet rich in whole grains.

The term "prebiotic" has a definition slightly different from the more commonly heard "probiotic". The definition of a prebiotic:

"A prebiotic is a selectively fermented ingredient that allows specific changes, both in the composition and/or activity in the gastrointestinal microflora that confers benefits upon host well-being and health". (prebiotics that may be more readily available in a US grocery store include raw chicory root, raw Jerusalem artichokes, raw dandelion greens, raw garlic and leeks, etc.)

The Gut Microbiota
1. Kristen Mueller,
2. Caroline Ash,
3. Elizabeth Pennisi,
4. Orla Smith

From the article: 

"We are on the threshold of making profound discoveries about the microorganisms with which we share our bodies, indeed whose cell count vastly outnumbers our own. In Science's 2005 special section Gut: The Inner Tube of Life, we saw hints of the important relationships we have with the microbial inhabitants of our guts. Since then, next-generation DNA sequencing and functional studies have begun to reveal how crucial these inhabitants are for our evolution, development, metabolism, immune defense, and susceptibility to a multiplicity of infectious and noncommunicable diseases.

Science and Science Translational Medicine have joined forces to resume the exploration of our inner tube and its microbiota. As Gordon points out (p. 1251), investigations into gut microbiota draw from many fields: ecology, genomics, metabolomics, immunology, and public health. A gathering of diverse minds and ideas will drive the development of new therapies for treating intractable infections, scourges of the developing world such as malnutrition (Sci. Transl. Med.4, 137ps12), and lifelong inflammatory diseases, such as Crohn's disease and colitis, as well as offering options for relieving the burden of metabolic diseases, including obesity and type II diabetes.

A new appreciation of the diversity and interactions among our microbiota has prompted Costello et al. (p. 1255) to turn to ecological theory to gain an understanding of the dynamics at work in gut communities. Functional studies have shown us that disruptions to the community caused by diet and medication can be detrimental to health. In a companion Review, Lemon et al. (Sci. Transl. Med.4, 137rv5) use ecology to gain insights into the disruptions caused by antibiotic therapy and remediation using probiotics. Nicholson et al. (p. 1262) explain explain how the gut microbiota is a major contributor to host metabolism through nutrient release, and how microbial metabolites boost fitness. Haiser and Turnbaugh (p. 1253) take up the theme of microbial metabolic activities and discuss their influence on drug metabolism. A related Review by Holmes et al. (Sci. Transl. Med.4, 137rv6) discusses the interplay between host and microbial metabolisms, which is providing new therapeutic opportunities for treating human disease.

From birth, the microbiota intimately shapes the development and function of the human immune system. Hooper et al. (p. 1268) review the mechanisms by which the immune system regulates the microbiota and vice versa to maintain intestinal homeostasis. And Blumberg and Powrie (Sci. Transl. Med.4, 137rv7) discuss how disruptions to this homeostasis can lead to severe diseases such as cancer and Crohn's disease. Some of these insights have come from dedicated programs in microbiome research, as discussed in a news article by Balter (p. 1246). A profile by Hvistendahl (p. 1248) highlights the efforts of Zhao Liping to fight the developing obesity epidemic in China with prebiotics.

These joint special sections in Science and Science Translational Medicine still provide only a distant view of our inner world. The next decade will see a revolution in understanding our microbial symbionts and how they can be manipulated for therapeutic benefits that will bring true inner world peace."

Jun

1

Here is a great article about the "Father of Plate Tectonics", Alfred Wegener, who 100 years ago began publishing his ideas about continental drift. His theories met stiff resistance from leading American geologists and paleontologists for decades and were not to gain acceptance until the 1960s.

'But Wegener was not timid about disciplinary boundaries, or much else. He was an Arctic explorer and a record-setting balloonist, and when his scientific mentor and future father-in-law advised him to be cautious in his theorizing, Wegener replied, "Why should we hesitate to toss the old views overboard?"'

From "When Continental Drift Was Considered Pseudo Science"

May

7

This is an interesting article on the genetic testing of horses–trying to find the next Kentucky Derby winner.

The latest trend among consultants to horse buyers and breeders is to rely on algorithms involving a "speed gene" and other markers, not just x-rays and endoscopes.

Apr

29

Ever changing cycles in public sentiment or just a catchy headline?

"French Sour on Nuclear Power"

Apr

6

The new book The Mark Inside: A Perfect Swindle, a Cunning Revenge, and a Small History of the Big Con by Amy Reading may be of interest:

"[Norfleet] got swindled partly because of his intelligence. He was a 54-year-old self-made man. He had gone from being an itinerant cowhand to owning his own cattle ranch, and the way that he grew successful was to do business with a handshake with other honest, straightforward men. And those were exactly the qualities that the swindlers, who encountered him in Dallas when he went there on a land deal, used to take him for everything that he was worth. … When he met Joe Furey, Furey represented himself as a broker on a stock exchange — someone with inside knowledge of this arcane financial world that was very different [than] the world of cattle. So, it's not so much that his moral radar was off as that he thought he was vaulting up into a new plateau of financial savvy. And they flattered his knowledge and his intelligence."

From an NPR article about it.

Reading's uses material from a 1924 book by Norfleet entitled Norfleet: The Actual Experiences of a Texas Rancher's 30,000-Mile Transcontinental Chase After Five Confidence Men.

Mar

28

"How Cooperation Can Slow Emergency Evacuations":

"In a fire, the obvious strategy is to leave the area by the nearest fire exit. Consequently, crowd behaviour specialists exercise a great deal of thought about how best to indicate fire exits, whether with a steady or flashing green light, for example.But what if the exits are not visible? What then is the best strategy for getting out? There are essentially two options–to make your own way to the exit, regardless of what others are doing; or to follow somebody else or a bigger group in the hope that you'll do better together than alone. "

Mar

27

It would be interesting to know what the actual odds of hitting an iceberg were in the years noted below and how many ships had gone down due to hitting icebergs prior to Titanic. Head-on vs. side-tearing collisions:

"Collisions with icebergs were common," he says. "[There were] about 15 in 1884, 30 in 1885, 20 in 1890, 16 in 1897. For over 20 years [before the sinking of the Titanic], the editorials in many of the newspapers and shipping journals were highly critical of … the incessant demand for ever increasing speed with ships charging across the North Atlantic with undue care for safety in the hazards of fog and the hidden obstacles of derelicts and ice.

"In other words," Hill concluded, "the Titanic disaster was just waiting to happen … The most shocking thing about it was its inevitability. People knew it would happen sooner or later, but the industry did little about it.

From the Atlantic article "No, The Moon Did Not Sink the Titanic".

On why the iceberg was not seen in advance:

It's been reported that the iceberg warnings were ignored because the wireless operator was too busy sending out passenger messages via the Marconi wireless room.

But more important perhaps was the iceberg itself. What we have here is not the traditional snow-covered glacier but one that had become clear through continuous melting and refreezing, transforming it into a kind of dark mirror against the calm water and the clear night sky.

Read more here. 

Mar

22

The likelihood Entergy will win the war against the State is low. The state can easily demonstrate they do not need the power and therefore it is not in the public's interest to issue the "certificate of public good."

This is a two-front war. New York is trying to shutter Entergy's Indian Point nuclear plant using similar tactics. The NYS is using new environmental laws to claim Entergy's plant is out of compliance and incapable of receiving a license extension:


Entergy Corp won another victory in its quest to keep the Vermont
Yankee nuclear power plant operating for another 20 years when a federal
judge again blocked the state from shutting the 40-year old reactor -
this time over a spent fuel issue.

full article from Reuters

Pitt T. Maner III writes: 

Here is a photograph of the plant . Article states close to 1/3 of Vermont power for 40 yrs. generated by Yankee plant.

It's interesting to note that > 50% of the 104 US nuclear power plants are over 30 years old and many are bumping up on 40 year permit renewal.

Would natural gas or coal-fired plants replace Yankee?
 

Mar

7

(NYP) New York Post: Knicks' D'Antoni defends decision not to foul Celtics

It looks like very specious reasoning of the kind we see in our field here but I don't know enough about basketball to call it out. Certainly when you don't foul someone, the opponent is more likely to have had a bad shot, so the statistics of 93% when you don't foul them are wrong. But there are other things wrong also. D'Antoni has lost so many of these games you'd think he'd rethink. It also must be demoralizing to stand so far away from your opponent that you don't foul them, and make you play worse defense. The not asking his defensive coordinator is a signal that he's too up in air with his TV programs.

Pitt T. Maner III writes:

The following paper shows a decision tree for the college game given a similar situation.

It addresses this question and concludes that, contrary to popular belief, intentionally fouling is preferable to playing tight defense.

Drawing on the Gonzaga/Michigan State game for inspiration…

The opportune time for the Knicks to have fouled might have been during the exchange between Garnett and P Pierce before the act of shooting could occur. Pierce hits about 80% of his free throws and 37% of his 3 pointers.

Pro 3-pt. line is further out but Paul Pierce against passive hands up and no jumping defenders would seem to be better than 1/10.
 

Mar

2


From the article "The Boy Who Played With Fusion"

As the guide runs off to fetch the center's director—You gotta see this kid!—Kenneth feels the weight coming down on him again. What he doesn't understand just yet is that he will come to look back on these days as the uncomplicated ones, when his scary-smart son was into simple things, like rocket science.

This is before Taylor would transform the family's garage into a mysterious, glow-in-the-dark cache of rocks and metals and liquids with unimaginable powers. Before he would conceive, in a series of unlikely epiphanies, new ways to use neutrons to confront some of the biggest challenges of our time: cancer and nuclear terrorism. Before he would build a reactor that could hurl atoms together in a 500-million-degree plasma core—becoming, at 14, the youngest individual on Earth to achieve nuclear fusion.

Taylor's Nuke Site

Feb

22

A total travesty at Disney World's Hall of Presidents as if Warren Buffett with his never having read a book were to have teamed up with Morgan Freeman to present a black panther view of American history with the presidency running from G.W to Andrew Jackson to Teddy Roosevelt to FDR to Obama with Lincoln thrown in. "All men are created equal" and "all men must be made small". One black person seen among 100,000 in attendance there, but to keep man small, the whole emphasis is on self sacrifice and smallness. Much use of decreasing marginal utility of increasing good at Disney and Universal and Jet Blue as they price everything to reduce consumers surplus to zero. Must be a trend among the consultants. At 9:00 on President's Day, there were approximately 10 people present for the Presidents Show at the Hall of Presidents and approximately 60,000 outside.

Pitt T. Maner III comments: 

Vic,

Following are quotes from Wikipedia links that discuss the history and historian (and his father) behind current Disney HOP show. Thought you might find interesting. From the Hall of Presidents:

"The show was then completely renovated in 1993, after Bill Clinton was elected into office. The changes to the show, which in some form remain to this day, are credited to Eric Foner, a history professor at Columbia University. He was able to persuade various Disney executives, most notably then-Disney CEO Michael Eisner, that a new adaptation of the show was needed. Foner is responsible for completely rewriting and changing the script of the show in order to focus more on slavery and other ethical and civil related issues in the United States of America. He is also responsible for rewriting Lincoln's speech, which was originally nearly identical to that which Lincoln gave in the original version of "Great Moments with Mr. Lincoln."

From Eric Foner:

and on Dr Foner's background: Foner was born in New York City, the son of Liza (née Kraitz), a high school art teacher, and historian Jack D. Foner, who actively supported the Spanish Republic against fascism during the Spanish Civil War, the trade union movement, and the campaign for civil rights for African Americans. In 1981, Jack Foner received an apology from the New York City Board of Higher Education for an "egregious violation of academic freedom" in 1941 that had resulted in his blacklisting for thirty years.[6] Jon Wiener, professor of history at the University of California, Irvine, wrote that Eric Foner describes his father as his "first great teacher," and recalls how, "deprived of his livelihood while I was growing up, he supported our family as a freelance lecturer… . Listening to his lectures, I came to appreciate how present concerns can be illuminated by the study of the past—how the repression of the McCarthy era recalled the days of the Alien and Sedition Acts, the civil rights movement needed to be viewed in light of the great struggles of Black and White abolitionists, and in the brutal suppression of the Philippine insurrection at the turn of the century could be found the antecedents of American intervention in Vietnam. I also imbibed a way of thinking about the past in which visionaries and underdogs—Tom Paine, Wendell Phillips, Eugene V. Debs, and W. E. B. Du Bois—were as central to the historical drama as presidents and captains of industry, and how a commitment to social justice could infuse one's attitudes towards the past."[7]

Foner earned a B.A., summa cum laude, from Columbia University in 1963; a second B.A. from Oriel College, Oxford, as a Kellett Fellow in 1965; and a Ph.D. in 1969, under the tutelage of Richard Hofstadter at Columbia University.

Foner's father Jack:

During the period of blacklisting, Foner supported his family as an entertainer. A drummer and comedian, Foner worked with Paul Robeson and Harry Belafonte, and maintained a friendship with W. E. B. Du Bois, all of whom also suffered from that era's blacklisting. Although Foner did some freelance lecturing, he was barred from academia until Colby College hired him in the spring of 1969 to teach history.[3]

Feb

14

Gordon Tullock's stint in China was crucial to his rent-seeking insight:

"See, you go into these cultures where people have produced just immense cultural achievements but are living in bitter poverty, and you discover very quickly they have a dominant government and the government is corrupt. Conventionally, economists have argued that a corrupt government doesn't really cost anything because the man who receives the bribe gains what the man who pays the bribe loses. Well, you can't really believe that if you're in China."

His book The Calculus of Consent [online version] is about to celebrate 50 years.

And Prof. Tullock is celebrating 90 today.

Feb

9

Have you heard of Kaggle?

The Benchmark Bond Trade Price Challenge is a competition to predict the
next price that a US corporate bond might trade at. Contestants are
given information on the bond including current coupon, time to maturity
and a reference price computed by
Benchmark Solutions.  Details of the previous 10 trades are also provided.  

This would be a perfect contest for the specs to enter.

Pitt T. Maner III writes: 

A bit more about Kaggle and its contests and contestants.

1.

One way to find them, Goldbloom believes, is to make Kaggle into the geek equivalent of the Ultimate Fighting Championship.Every contest has a scoreboard. Math and computer science whizzes from places like IBM (IBM) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology tend to do well, but there are some atypical participants, including glaciologists, archeologists, and curious undergrads. Momchil Georgiev, for instance, is a senior software engineer at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. By day he verifies weather forecast data. At night he turns into “SirGuessalot” and goes up against more than 500 people trying predict what day of the week people will visit a supermarket and how much they’ll spend. (The sponsor is dunnhumby, an adviser to grocery chains like Tesco (TSCO:LN).) “To be honest, it’s gotten a little bit addictive,” says Georgiev.'

and

'By far the most lucrative prize on Kaggle is a $3 million reward offered by Heritage Provider Network to the person who can most accurately forecast which patients will be admitted to a hospital within the next year by looking at their past insurance claims data. More than 1,000 people have downloaded the anonymized data that covers four years of hospital visits, and they have until April 2013 to post answers.'

2.

Opera Solutions at present leads the Kaggle "hospital problem" contest and its CEO Arnab Gupta, a chess player, is a proponent of "man plus machine". An average player plus a chess machine he claims would beat most grandmasters. The key for him is to extract the "signal" from massive amounts of data.

Given the promise of Big Data, Gupta ascribes to the idea expressed by the chief scientist at the Broad Institute that medicine in 2010 vs 2020 will be like chemistry before and after the periodic table.

Feb

9

Fatal Shark attacks reached a worldwide, 20-year high in 2011 (12 deaths, all ex-USA). Florida was down in the number of attacks (11 non-fatal).

The suggested relationship with tourism might raise a statistical eyebrow. Jaws as an economic indicator.

"It's a good news/bad news situation," Burgess said. "From the U.S. perspective, things have never been better, our attack and fatality rates continue to decline. But if it's a reflection of the downturn in the economy, it might suggest that other areas have made a real push to get into the tourism market."

Feb

3

This is a field perhaps with some semblance to speculation with all the things that can go wrong and given the difficulties in pinpointing and salvaging potentially valuable targets.

Following is a recently reported multi-billion dollar find (of Russian platinum and gold).

The company is Sub Sea Research:

The Sub Sea Research crew had spent months in 2008 futilely scouring a wide swath of ocean off Cape Cod in search of the SS Port Nicholson, a merchant ship that sank in 1942 while laden with platinum now believed to be worth $3 billion.

But on the morning of Aug. 27, 2008, as the rest of the crew slept, deckhand Dave St. Cyr spotted an unmistakable three-dimensional sonar image on the monitor in front of him. It was a large ship resting on its side.

“I woke up the captain, and I said to him, ‘You might want to see this,’ ’’ St. Cyr said.

By the end of this month, the Maine company expects to begin harvesting the bountiful treasure, considered to be among the most valuable precious-metal finds ever from a shipwreck. Playing a key role in the effort: a remotely operated vehicle tethered to the Sea Hunter, a 214-foot salvage ship currently docked in East Boston.

The Port Nicholson, a British steamer, was sailing from Halifax, Nova Scotia, to New York when a German U-boat torpedoed it during World War II, despite a heavy military escort. Four people died, while 87 were rescued.

Since then, it has remained on the ocean floor about 30 miles off Provincetown. The cargo, then valued at about $53 million, was a lend-lease payment to the United States from the Soviet Union.

“Maybe I’ll buy a small island in the Caribbean,’’ joked Greg Brooks, a partner in the private Sub Sea Research company that searches for shipwrecks worldwide. He and his wife Kathy started the company in 1984.

Sub Sea Research obtained legal rights to the shipwreck and its cargo after completing an admiralty claim in federal court and publishing announcements in three major newspapers. A judge will determine a final ruling on ownership after the cargo is lifted out of the water.

About a decade ago, Sub Sea Research brought up a few million dollars in silver coins from a pirate ship off the coast of Puerto Rico, and most recently the crew focused on shipwrecks off the coast of Haiti. But with the political instability that has upended that country in recent decades, securing any sort of legal agreement was difficult, Brooks said.

“There are shipwrecks from the 1500s still there, about 20 or so really good ones, and we’ve tried to negotiate,’’ Brooks said.

In May 2008, the crew left Haiti and returned to Maine. That month, the company’s historical researcher learned about the Port Nicholson through recently declassified files, and the search was on. It took months to find the ship, because it was about 15 miles from where it was reportedly sunk.

After a sonar device located the wreckage, the crew sent down a remotely operated vehicle with a camera, which identified the shipwreck b y the lettering on the side of the vessel and other markers. The crew then used the remote to search for the cargo, but after numerous passes were unable to locate it.

Crew members then realized, through research of another shipwreck, that at least 30 boxes scattered in and around the ship that seemed to have been used for ammunition were actually full of platinum ingots. Each box weighs approximately 130 pounds, too heavy for the Sub Sea Research remote to lift. The crew is currently awaiting arrival of the stronger remotely operated vehicle to lift the boxes.

Turning the ingots, or bars, into cash will take some considerable effort.

“It’s not an easy task,’’ Brooks said. “There’s a good possibility there are about 10 tons of gold down there, too, and maybe some industrial diamonds. “We know people who own smelting manufacturing companies who will buy what we have,’’ he said. “But at the same time, we don’t want the market to drop because of this. We’ll have to be careful.’’

From this article.

Jan

27

Downtown Freddie Brown, Bird, Reggie Miller, et al. would have kept shooting 3s, but would a layup have been the better decision?

Here we show, using the sequences of field goal attempts made by professional basketball players, that the outcome of even a single field goal attempt has a considerable effect on the rate of subsequent 3 point shot attempts, in line with standard models of reinforcement learning. However, this change in behavior is associated with negative correlations between the outcomes of successive field goal attempts. These results indicate that despite years of experience and high motivation, professional players overgeneralize from the outcomes of their most recent actions, which leads to decreased performance.

from "Reinforcement Learning in Professional Basketball"

Jan

22

An interesting development:

"Huge Oil Rig Explores Cuban Waters"

A huge drilling rig arrived Thursday in the warm Gulf waters north of Havana, where it will sink an exploratory well deep into the seabed, launching Cuba's dreams of striking it rich with offshore oil.

The Scarabeo-9 platform was visible from Havana's sea wall far off on the hazy horizon as it chugged westward toward its final drill site about 30 miles (50 kilometers) from the capital, and 60 miles (90 kilometers) south of Key West.

Spanish oil company Repsol RPF, which is leasing the rig for about a half-million dollars a day, said it expects to begin drilling within days to find out whether the reserves are as rich as predicted."

Jan

5

At the core of the tipping point theory is the phenomena called 'critical slowing down'. This means that systems which are getting close to their tipping points take a longer time to recover when they are thrown out of balance.

Here is one of the graphs for the experiment. There is some semblance to Rocky's mountain collapse prediction.

Tipping points, at which complex systems can shift abruptly from one state to another, are notoriously difficult to predict1. Theory proposes that early warning signals may be based on the phenomenon that recovery rates from small perturbations should tend to zero when approaching a tipping point2, 3; however, evidence that this happens in living systems is lacking. Here we test such ‘critical slowing down’ using a microcosm in which photo-inhibition drives a cyanobacterial population to a classical tipping point when a critical light level is exceeded. We show that over a large range of conditions, recovery from small perturbations becomes slower as the system comes closer to the critical point. In addition, autocorrelation in the subtle fluctuations of the system’s state rose towards the tipping point, supporting the idea that this metric can be used as an indirect indicator of slowing down4, 5. Although stochasticity prohibits prediction of the timing of critical transitions, our results suggest that indicators of slowing down may be used to rank complex systems on a broad scale from resilient to fragile.

source

Here is Dr. Scheffer's book on critical transitions. It's interesting to compare the graph of a living system approaching a tipping point vs. a straight chemical reaction such as an acid-base titration where there is not much of a "warning" and the tipping point is reached very rapidly.

Dec

21

Here is some interesting research that has possible implications for other organisms.

1) The impact of hatcheries on salmon is so profound that in just one generation traits are selected that allow fish to survive and prosper in the hatchery environment, at the cost of their ability to thrive and reproduce in a wild environment.

2)

Captive breeding programs are widely used for the conservation and restoration of threatened and endangered species. Nevertheless, captive-born individuals frequently have reduced fitness when reintroduced into the wild. The mechanism for these fitness declines has remained elusive, but hypotheses include environmental effects of captive rearing, inbreeding among close relatives, relaxed natural selection, and unintentional domestication selection (adaptation to captivity).

We used a multigenerational pedigree analysis to demonstrate that domestication selection can explain the precipitous decline in fitness observed in hatchery steelhead released into the Hood River in Oregon. After returning from the ocean, wild-born and first-generation hatchery fish were used as broodstock in the hatchery, and their offspring were released into the wild as smolts. First-generation hatchery fish had nearly double the lifetime reproductive success (measured as the number of returning adult offspring) when spawned in captivity compared with wild fish spawned under identical conditions, which is a clear demonstration of adaptation to captivity.

We also documented a tradeoff among the wild-born broodstock: Those with the greatest fitness in a captive environment produced offspring that performed the worst in the wild. Specifically, captive-born individuals with five (the median) or more returning siblings (i.e., offspring of successful broodstock) averaged 0.62 returning offspring in the wild, whereas captive-born individuals with less than five siblings averaged 2.05 returning offspring in the wild.

These results demonstrate that a single generation in captivity can result in a substantial response to selection on traits that are beneficial in captivity but severely maladaptive in the wild.

Dec

5

TEN OF MY RULES FOR AIR FIGHTING

by Sailor Malan, famed South African World War II RAF fighter pilot

1. Wait until you see the whites of his eyes. Fire short bursts of one to two seconds only when your sights are definitely "ON".
2. Whilst shooting think of nothing else, brace the whole of your body: have both hands on the stick: concentrate on your ring sight.
3. Always keep a sharp lookout. "Keep your finger out".
4. Height gives you the initiative.
5. Always turn and face the attack.
6. Make your decisions promptly. It is better to act quickly even though your tactics are not the best.
7. Never fly straight and level for more than 30 seconds in the combat area.
8. When diving to attack always leave a proportion of your formation above to act as a top guard.
9. INITIATIVE, AGGRESSION, AIR DISCIPLINE, and TEAMWORK are words that MEAN something in Air Fighting.
10. Go in quickly - Punch hard - Get out!

Nov

28

An article I read recently would seem to have significance for producers of branded products like the bottlers, and P and G, and the bond market. What's happening on the internet seems to be spilling over into all areas with price competition increasing.

Kurt Specht comments: 

Very true, but another big issue right now for all consumer goods producers is staying ahead of commodity inflation and figuring out how much to pass along to consumers in the form of price increases and package size reductions.

Steve Ellison adds: 

In his book Trends 2000, Gerald Celente said that consumers turn away from brand names periodically, but they always come back. He noted a tendency for brand names to be out of favor in the years ending in 0 to 2 each decade, which have often coincided with recessions (the Senator has noted that those years have often not been kind to the stock market). Mr. Celente attributed this regularity to a "10-year corporate spending cycle."

Pitt T. Maner II adds: 

Chlorox would seem to be one of those companies that has had to work for decades to keep market share against generics (bleach). They appear to maintain their higher price per gallon through strong branding/advertising. Perhaps the need for the services and the money spent on strong marketing and advertising companies increases when generics and cheaper alternatives threaten. Or when one is running for election.

Nov

16

"But the surprise is that almost all sports follow exactly the same law–the Pareto Principle. In other words, regardless of the sport, 20 percent of the players enjoy 80 per cent of the success and prize money.

Exactly how this rule emerges in sports with different rules, governing bodies and tournament structures is something of a puzzle.

However, it means there is certain predictability in the outcome of events in which two players are pitted against each other. To test the nature of this predictability, Deng and co have found a model that exactly reproduces the statistics of the real sport.

They make a few assumptions about the players involved, the most interesting being that the probability of one player beating another depends only on their difference in ranking. So the number 1 ranked player is just as likely to beat the number 10 player as the number 75 is of beating the number 85. In fact, the same probability applies to any two players separated by ten places in the rankings. "

"Universal Law Discovered for Player Rankings"

Nov

10

“We were told not to expect reward without risk, gain without the possibility of loss,” he says in disgust. “Now we have been forced to accept crony capitalism, private profits and socialized losses, and corporate welfare.”

source.

Derman's new book is out. Here is a nice article about it.

"MODELS.BEHAVING.BADLY. Why Confusing Illusion with Reality Can Lead to Disaster, on Wall Street and in Life"

Emanuel Derman was a quantitative analyst (Quant) at Goldman Sachs, one of the financial engineers whose mathematical models became crucial for Wall Street. The reliance investors put on such quantitative analysis was catastrophic for the economy, setting off the ongoing string of financial crises that began with the mortgage market in 2007 and continues through today. Here Derman looks at why people– bankers in particular –still put so much faith in these models, and why it's a terrible mistake to do so.

Though financial models imitate the style of physics and employ the language of mathematics, ultimately they deal with human beings. There is a fundamental difference between the aims and potential achievements of physics and those of finance. In physics, theories aim for a description of reality; in finance, at best, models can shoot only for a simplistic and very limited approximation to it. When we make a model involving human beings, we are trying to force the ugly stepsister's foot into Cinderella's pretty glass slipper. It doesn't fit without cutting off some of the essential parts. Physicists and economists have been too enthusiastic to acknowledge the limits of their equations in the sphere of human behavior–which of course is what economics is all about.

Models.Behaving.Badly includes a personal account of Derman's childhood encounters with failed models–the oppressions of apartheid and the utopia of the kibbutz. He describes his experience as a physicist on Wall Street, the models quants generated, the benefits they brought and the problems, practical and ethical, they caused. Derman takes a close look at what a model is, and then highlights the differences between the successes of modeling in physics and its failures in economics. Describing the collapse of the subprime mortgage CDO market in 2007, Derman urges us to stop the naïve reliance on these models, and offers suggestions for mending them. This is a fascinating, lyrical, and very human look behind the curtain at the intersection between mathematics and human nature."

Nov

9

1) Hawaiian hellman Garrett McNamara has cheated death to ride what is being billed as the largest wave ever surfed. The big wave rider caught the huge 30m (90 feet) monster earlier this month off the coast of Nazaré in central Portugal.

2) From an interview with McNamara:

ESM: Do you have a training regimen to prepare you for big surf?

GM: It varies based on wherever I am because I'm on the road so much. I stretch and do breath-holding exercises every day, and then I do Bikram yoga and lift weights whenever possible.

ESM: Are you focused on nutrition too?

GM: Yeah, I eat about five small meals a day, mainly greens, and I've recently eliminated animal product from my consumption. I read this book called The PH Miracle, and it changed my life.

ESM: So what's up next for you? GM: I have a jam-packed schedule touring around with Wave Jet. We will be in LA Tuesday for a Discovery Channel shoot, then I head to Hawaii for a commercial shoot with WaveJet and Thule. Then it's off to Utah for the Outdoor Retail Show, then the US Open, then the SEA Paddle NYC around Manhattan. After that comes my favorite part, a week with Surfers Healing. Then I'm off to Florida for the Surf Expo, then Battle of the Paddle, then the International Boat Show, and finally, back to Hawaii for the Eddie and Pipe Masters.

ESM: Wow, that's quite a schedule. What inspires you to keep going?

GM: Surfing is my passion. It's what I love. It's what I live for. The ocean is my church and my playground all in one.

Nov

1

One is working on a post about false modesty. From Uriah Heep to the sage and gross and denial of false modesty by the "bank" and would appreciate any insight you might have. To me, pretending to be low, when you wish to gain sympathy and set a low bar for doing better is very common. The athlete that pretends "all the young kids are so much fresher than I" should not be overlooked.

 Gary Rogan writes: 

False modesty is mostly useful when you are buying, and for some reason almost everyone seems to be aggressively selling something complicated, and it also seems like these days (and it's not always been the case), the way to do a big sale is to seem like the big man on campus fully confident in your product as opposed to someone who just fell of the turnip truck and has no idea how to price what they are selling. Probably because when you are selling complicated things it strains credibility to claim that you have no idea what they are or what they are worth, yet they somehow will work. On the other hand if you are selling horses or gold-mining rights it pays to appear stupid.

There are of course still many examples. One example is Soros often understating his involvement in various causes buy being way too casual in his comments, as in this OWS case.

“Actually I can understand their sentiment, frankly,” he told reporters while announcing a large donation to the United Nations. “I can sympathize with their grievances.”

While not exactly false modesty, it's a kind of diminution of his involvement in a very similar way.

And just about anyone who had anything to do with the credit crisis is very modest about their involvement. Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, Fannie Mae, all the people who encouraged the millions of loans that had no chance of being repaid have turned into gently well-meaning almost-bystanders.

Pitt T. Maner III comments:

False modesty could be a means of minimizing the potential backlash caused by delivering false opinions to the public (while taking the opposite side on the trade). Also it may lower the mental costs of engaging in the deception and manipulation of others ("that's what I believed at the time too").

1) New book out by Robert Trivers entitled The Folly of Fools: The Logic of Deceit and Self-Deception in Human Life may be of interest.

2) From a recent review:

In “The Folly of Fools” Robert Trivers, an American evolutionary biologist, explains that the most effectively devious people are often unaware of their deceit. Self-deception makes it easier to manipulate others to get ahead. Particularly intelligent people can be especially good at deceiving themselves.

All of this deceit comes at a price. Mr Trivers suggests that the most cunning people (whether conscious fibbers or not) tend to benefit at the expense of everyone else. He highlights the way overconfident Wall Street traders may hurt investors and taxpayers at little personal risk. Then there are politicians who spin stories of national greatness to bolster support for costly wars in which they will not be fighting.'

3) Consider this paper from von Hippel and Trivers:

Abstract:

to conscious deception that might reveal deceptive intent. Self-deception has two additional advantages: It eliminates the costly cognitive load that is typically associated with deceiving, and it can minimize retribution if the deception is discovered. Beyond its role in specific acts of deception, self-deceptive self-enhancement also allows people to display more confidence than is warranted, which has a host of social advantages. The question then arises of how the self can be both deceiver and deceived. We propose that this is achieved through dissociations of mental processes, including conscious versus unconscious memories, conscious versus unconscious attitudes, and automatic versus controlled processes. Given the variety of methods for deceiving others, it should come as no surprise that self-deception manifests itself in a number of different psychological processes, and we discuss various types of self-deception. We then discuss the interpersonal versus intrapersonal nature of self-deception before considering the levels of consciousness at which the self can be deceived. Finally, we contrast our evolutionary approach to self-deception with current theories and debates in psychology and consider some of the costs associated with self-deception.In this article we argue that self-deception evolved to facilitate interpersonal deception by allowing people to avoid the cues

4) Dr. Trivers is making the speaking rounds to promote his new book, about which there is probably lively debate.

About Dr. Trivers:

Robert L. Trivers (born February 19, 1943) is an American evolutionary biologist and sociobiologist and Professor of Anthropology and Biological Sciences at Rutgers University. Trivers is most noted for proposing the theories of reciprocal altruism (1971), parental investment (1972), facultative sex ratio determination (1973), and parent-offspring conflict (1974). Other areas in which he has made influential contributions include an adaptive view of self-deception (first described in 1976) and intragenomic conflict. Trivers is arguably one of the most influential evolutionary theorists alive today. Steven Pinker considers Trivers to be "one of the great thinkers in the history of Western thought". Says Pinker, Robert Trivers has:

"inspired an astonishing amount of research and commentary in psychology and biology—the fields of sociobiology, evolutionary psychology, Darwinian social science, and behavioral ecology are in large part attempt to test and flesh out Trivers' ideas. It is no coincidence that E. O. Wilson's Sociobiology and Richard Dawkins' The Selfish Gene were published in 1975 and 1976 respectively, just a few years after Trivers' seminal papers. Both bestselling authors openly acknowledged that they were popularizing Trivers' ideas and the research they spawned. Likewise for the much-talked-about books on evolutionary psychology in the 1990s— The Adapted Mind, The Red Queen, Born to Rebel, The Origin of Virtue, The Moral Animal, and my own How the Mind Works. Each of these books is based in large part on Trivers' ideas and the explosion of research they inspired (involving dozens of animal species, mathematical and computer modeling, and human social and cognitive psychology)."

By the way, he will be speaking at a meetup in LA next week.

5) True modesty is a discerning grace, and only blushes in the proper place; But counterfeit is blind, and skulks through fear, Where 'tis a shame to be asham'd t' appear: Humility the parent of the first, The last by vanity produc'd and nurs'd. - William Cowper

Pitt T. Maner III continues:

A statement from Dr. Trivers (in light of his controversial views, past associations, and strange biography) catches the eye:

Interviewer: "Are you a self-deceiver?"

Trivers: I end the book with a chapter on fighting our own self-deception. I've been remarkably unsuccessful in my own case. I just repeat the same kinds of mistakes over and over. If you ask me about my self-deception, I can give you stories, chapter and verse, in the past. But can I prevent myself doing the same damn thing again tomorrow? Usually not, though in my professional life as a scientist, I feel that I probably practice less self-deception, I'm more critical of evidence, a little bit harder nosed.

Interviewer: You could be deceiving yourself about that.

Trivers: Absolutely."

Oct

21

A good friend of my daughter asked me for advice on the best way of winning a man's heart on a first or second date.

I told her to use the Jennifer Flowers Gambit (the surprise erotic interlude when stopped on a drawbridge) or the Lee Raziwell gambit (listen intently to everything he says and ask about his expansive greatness), or the Leona Helmseley Gambit (pretend that there is another suiter waiting for you that evening so you have to leave at 11 pm as nothing inflames a man more than competition) but I feel that others here are more sapient in this area and others and I  would appreciate your insights.

An Anonymous  writer comments: 

My conclusion is that the number one sign of a good long term relationship with a woman is based on the quality of her relationship with her father.

I am basically engaged to be engaged with a woman, and the emotional commitment on my end happened after a dinner where much of the conversation was her describing her relationship with her dad, and how he helped her with her math and physics homework, and then they would walk to the store for a treat, etc, and just the general way that her face lights up when talking about her dad.

So anyway, that's what worked on me. Perhaps she should try it.

/my 2 cents

 Gary Rogan responds: 

This sounds like good advice and the father thing is pretty well-known, but I'm just amazed that you have made some conclusions about long-term relationships after having dated women in around ten countries over two years. 

 Pitt T. Maner III comments:

Well then there are some who base decisions and strategies on a few minutes of observation. The HFT of the dating scene—your most important impression—the first 3 seconds!
 

 José Bonamigo shares:

From Forbes Magazine:

The mating practices of human beings offer a reason for thinking beauty and intelligence might come in the same package. The logic of this covariance was explained to me years ago by a Harvard psychologist who had been reading a history of the Rothschild family. His mischievous but astute observation: The family founders, in 18th-century Frankfurt, were supremely ugly, but several generations later, after successive marriages to supremely beautiful women, the men in the family were indistinguishable from movie stars. The Rothschild effect, as you could call it, is well established in sociology research: Men everywhere want to marry beautiful women, and women everywhere want socially dominant (i.e., intelligent) husbands. When competent men marry pretty women, the couple tends to have children above average in both competence and looks. Covariance is everywhere. At the other end of the scale, too, there is a connection between looks and smarts. According to Erdal Tekin, a research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research, low attractiveness ratings predict lower test scores and a greater likelihood of criminal activity.

http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2005/0815/096.html

Best regards from Brazil

JB

 Gary Rogan inquires:

 After a while this degenerates into just socially dominant and not necessarily intelligent men. This modified effect can be readily seen in the Charles/Diana coupling, at least in the older Prince William. Of course how did Charles come about if the theory is correct? 

 Stefan Jovanovich comments:

Trusting Forbes magazine on stories of family history is more than a bit like buying a Degas ballerina sculpture from Toby Esterhase's Soho gallery. The notion that the 5 founding brothers were "supremely ugly" is part of the standard viciousness of the portrait of the Jewish banker as Shylock that survives to this day. There is no evidence of any special ugliness in their portraits.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salomon_Mayer_von_Rothschild

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amschel_Mayer_Rothschild

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nathan_Mayer_Rothschild

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Mayer_von_Rothschild

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Mayer_de_Rothschild

The Rothschilds married money - the Ephrussis, the Guggenheims and the Oppenheims. One suspects that, as in most things, the question of beauty was left to the beholders.

In the 19th century the great minds were certain that criminal behavior could be predicted by examining the bumps on people's heads. It should hardly be surprising that we are back to estimating future viciousness by measuring the asymmetry of human features.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phrenology

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smiley's_People

 Jim Wildman comments:

I would say that she can't on the first or second date. Winning someone's heart in a deep, lasting way, takes time. Anyone can fake interest for a while. What about when she is sick? When he is grumpy? When life intrudes on the lovers? Are their hearts still connected?

Granted, I haven't dated anyone for over 3 decades, but I have watched 3 daughters struggle with guys..

 Marion Dreyfus questions:

My question:

And some may find this offensive–

Does the ubiquity of pornography, specifically for the ones who purvey it day and night (I understand that equals a LOT of the male population), make falling in love with and making love with real women –including the physical aspects of affection–much more difficult than it used to be before every late-night channel offered a raft of such virtual substitutes for real relationships?

Rocky Humbert comments: 

Choices:

(a) Korean BBQ. Nothing excites a man more than watching a lady handle chopsticks amidst an open flame. Alas, times change. Woo Lae Oak has gone out of business. http://nymag.com/listings/restaurant/woo-lae-oak/

(b) Take whatever advice a parent provides, and do exactly the opposite.

(c) Que Sera, Sera

(d) http://www.datingish.com/695368212/how-to-win-your-guys-heart/

Score 1 point for picking the right answer. Deduct 1/4 point for picking the wrong answer.

 Bill Rafter writes:

When you are fishing, you need to match the bait to the fish. Striped Bass like clams, but Bluefish and Flounder will eat anything, so you might as well use bunker. Think of it this way: a young lady would wear one kind of dress on a date and a different dress when meeting the young man’s mother.

If a man is 25 or younger he is probably only interested in one thing and he is not looking for lasting qualities. Not that there’s anything wrong with that. The interlude on the drawbridge is something he will never forget. A woman with an interesting job is attractive as long as it does not threaten him.

At some time the man starts to look for additional qualities in a mate. Maybe because of pressure from his parents he starts to think of having a family. Then he starts looking for someone who might be a good wife and mother. A schoolteacher is attractive in this case.

In foods, women are attracted to chocolate whereas men are attracted to cinnamon.

 Tim Melvin writes:

I told my daughter in response to a similar question that anything won so easily or quickly likely had little value in the long run. She should be herself at all times and the man who liked and fell for that woman was likely a better match. I taught all the tricks her old man had used over the years to win fair lady specifically so she could avoid them.

 Jose Bonamigo responds:

My intention with the Forbes extract was not to present solid evidence, just a likely explanation for couples like Charles and Diana (a common combination), as Gary pointed out.

Looking at the portraits it seemed to me they were "regular" uglies (just kidding)…

For a more scientific approach, at least in the physical part of dating:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17173598

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16318594

Oct

21

Connections, connections connections…what does it all mean?

"A small, tightly woven network of companies, mostly banks, wields disproportionate control over the global economy, according to a new study. To the thousands of protesters swept up in the global Occupy movement, it may seem like a case of science confirming the obvious. It’s based on a few extrapolations and assumptions that are open to debate, but the overall findings shed some light on the intimate ways 21st century capitalism works — and how those functions can undermine the entire system. "

http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2011-10/tightly-knit-network-companies-runs-world-economy-say-swiss-researchers

We present the first investigation of the architecture of the international ownership network, along with the computation of the control held by each global player. We find that transnational corporations form a giant bow-tie structure and that a large portion of control flows to a small tightly-knit core of financial institutions. This core can be seen as an economic “super-entity” that raises new important issues both for researchers and policy makers.

http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/1107/1107.5728v2.pdf

Oct

3

A re-make of the movie The Thing (previously done in 1951 and 1982) is coming out October 14th.

An indicator of fearful times?

The 1951 version played on Cold War paranoia. The movie is based on a 1938 novella "Who Goes There?" which has been rated one of the best science fiction stories ever written.

Here is the website for the 2011 movie version.

"Who Goes There? has been adapted three times as a motion picture. The Thing from Another World (1951), with James Arness as the Thing, Kenneth Tobey as the USAF officer, and Robert O. Cornthwaite as the lead scientist, was a rather loose adaptation. Its 1982 remake The Thing by director John Carpenter, from a Bill Lancaster screenplay, stuck more closely to Campbell's original story. Prior to John Carpenter's involvement, William F. Nolan, author of Logan's Run, wrote a Who Goes There? screen treatment for Universal Studios in 1978, not published until 2009 in the Rocket Ride Books edition of Who Goes There? Nolan's alternate take on Campbell's story downplays monster elements in favor of an "imposter" theme, in a vein similar to Invasion of the Body Snatchers by Jack Finney. A third adaptation, also called The Thing, is due for release in 2011 and serves as a prequel to the events of Carpenter's film."

Here is the original story by John W Campbell.

Sep

7

Here is a website showing an unusual method of using paper plates to teach folding angles and geometric structures. It conjures up images of origami, mineral crystallography, and viral shell architecture.

Given certain "pressure" and "temperature" regimes does the market take on a preferred "shape" to maintain stability/equilibrium?

The purpose of this site is to promote the importance of folding circles. The circle is the most experiential, comprehensive, hands-on, educational tool we have, and yet most people do not know this. Every child in school should be folding as often as they draw pictures of circles, and discuss the information that is generated in the folding. You cannot anticipate what the circle will generate from a drawing. Folding circles is accessible to any person that can fold a circle in half, regardless of age or grade level (see How To Fold section). Paper circles are inexpensive and readily available worldwide in the form of paper plates.

Aug

24

Aftershocks might occur.

In the case of the magnitude 5.9 (at a different location in Va. from the current quake) on May 31, 1897:

"Aftershocks continued through June 6, 1897. " (would have to check what the magnitudes were)

It might be interesting to compare the exact "response times" on the nuclear company stock share prices in relation to the start of shaking today.

It looks like about 22 minutes from the intraday high/low earthquake event for Dominion Resources. Quake started at 13:51:04. The minute Google stock chart indicates downward stock price movement at 1352 but maybe sophisticated traders were on it in milliseconds.

Would imagine someone with the right equipment and screening capability (quake size, depth, location, historical response of markets to different seimic events) is trading on these relatively infrequent earthquake events —particularly in countries where news comes out a few seconds slower.

Aug

22

Michael Burry, of "The Big Short" fame, mentioned farmland a while back as an (the only?) investment he saw having value.

It appears now that there are companies that are developing and possibly planning the introduction of the "first" farmland REITs. One could imagine that this might have an appeal to the general public looking for an alternative to gold and other perceived "safe havens". Buying a piece of the farm…

Here is one company that has been mentioned as being interested in introducing farmland REITs. Those with experience in this area can critique if such a thing makes sense or not…or whether watching re-runs of "Green Acres" is a better bet for city slickers.

"Our goal is to develop an agricultural and farmland investment vehicle that provides unique value to our shareholders. We seek to achieve this goal by owning farmland that is leased to independent farmers that mostly produce row crops. We own six farms in California, each of which is leased to farmers producing fruits and vegetables."

Stefan Jovanovich comments: 

European syndicates wanting to get into the "beef" boom paid for the land and the Herefords and other stock that were brought in to Kansas to improve the breed of the wild Texas cattle that Mr. Hammond, Swift and Armour were slaughtering to great profit. Somehow, the profits were never realized, even though a number of enterprising cowboys got their start with their own spreads by liberating the "half-breeds" that wandered off the Europeans' land. The author of one study described the experience of the Dutch investors as a "long slow ride to nowhere".

Aug

21

The aging population of South Florida appears particularly susceptible and vulnerable to all manner of flim-flam and scam artists:

"From storefront businesses in upscale Fort Lauderdale neighborhoods, a family of fortune tellers ran a $40-million scheme that defrauded people from near and far since 1991, federal prosecutors said in court Friday.

Among the victims was a bestselling author who gave an estimated $20 million to the family. The woman, who prosecutors refused to identify, lost her 8-year-old son in a motorcycle accident and was allegedly exploited by at least one of the defendants, Rose Marks, who she considered a friend."

Aug

21

Self Righting Shapes are a market metaphor for optimists:

There is something about a turtle on its back that twists your heart. With neck craning toward the ground and legs waving to no effect, it is the image of helplessness. But, malicious kids aside, turtles almost never end up upended. And it turns out that the apparent risk factor for that predicament—the turtle's rigid carapace—is less a liability than an asset, surprisingly well-suited to the turtle's goal of righting itself. The secret is in the mathematics of its shape.

Would make for a nice paperweight.

Aug

2

Several recent internet articles mention that many banks are making the decision to tear down low value foreclosed properties. It looks like an accelerating trend.

Demolition companies, track hoe rental stores , waste haulers, and waste disposal companies would appear most likely to benefit immediately from this business. Using the bulldozer to improve the bottom line:

"Bank of America had 40,000 foreclosures in the first quarter, saddling the Charlotte, N.C., lender with taxes and maintenance costs. The bank announced the Cleveland program last month, has committed as many as 100 properties in Detroit and 150 in Chicago, and may add as many as nine cities by the end of the year, said Rick Simon, a company spokesman.

The lender will pay as much as $7,500 for demolition or $3,500 in areas eligible to receive funds through the federal Neighborhood Stabilization Program. Uses for the land include development, open space and urban farming, according to the statement. Simon declined to say how many foreclosed properties Bank of America holds."

Read more here.

Aug

2

One disability many of us face is clinging to unusual or untested beliefs to explain what is seen. It is hard not to be influenced by superstitions and attachments to ideas.

Perhaps a deeper cause may be found in another statistic: 70% of Americans still do not understand the scientific process, defined in the NSF study as grasping probability, the experimental method, and hypothesis testing.

- excerpt from Michael Shermer's The Believing Brain

Jul

21

It was Superbowl Sunday about 20 years ago and we were moored in my boat at my favorite remote bay. The night before there was no wind and absolutely no waves with the ocean flat as a bathtub. Its never like that. I thought to myself, "This is strange. So calm. Very unusual."

Sure enough around 2 am the palm trees start to sway. By dawn the wind was blowing 60 plus. My anchor let loose and the boat headed for the rocks. Just before hitting the rocks, the anchor caught. I was trying to move the boat but the motor wasn't strong enough to fight the wind so I had to pull the anchors one by one to pull the boat away from the rocks.

I remember distinctly my surfboard flapping in the wind horizontally on its cord totally out of control. I could not look into the wind as the rain and wind stung my eyes. The sea was foaming. That day 7 boats went up on the rocks or sunk. Later that afternoon the storm abated, sun came out, and I made it back to harbor.

Pitt T. Maner II writes:

There is a belief in the health and safety field is that "all accidents are preventable". The key is to properly access the range of risks and the "worst thing that can happen" and have the plan in place to mitigate those risks.

It appears that a good portion of local sailing instruction these days is devoted to teaching youngsters proper health and safety.

Strangely the least experienced and most experienced people, however, are often the ones that have the majority of accidents. The young have no experience and do not realize the risks, and the older ones have the experience and knowledge but have become complacent or willing to cut corners since "nothing like that has happened before".

Often there is technology and knowledge available to prevent accidents and deaths. So for those to suggest that a "true sport" need be associated with risk of death and imply "acceptable number of deaths" doesn't seem quite right for modern times— definitely heresy for those in the health and safety field. An idea best left for Hemingway stories.

One would think that once the full facts about the tragedy are learned that new safety procedures will be considered and improvements made.

I had the chance to hear Gary Jobson speak here in S Fla at a leukemia charity benefit about 10 years ago and he is a very impressive individual.

For example,  

Safety tethers have been proven to have saved countless lives, and their use is absolutely the best accepted practice for sailing offshore, at night, or anytime that there is even the slightest chance of a crew member going overboard; PFDs, of course, should be worn at all times. These practices were exceeded by the WingNuts crew.

Is there any Health and Safety product made or which could be made to handle such extreme conditions? In cold water you have to fight hypothermia and drowning in rough seas.

Advanced survival suits?

 

Jul

14

Determining what art will be valuable 10 to 50 years from now is a very speculative endeavor but evidently a Rothko painting was identified early on as a good investment by Fortune magazine:

Rothko had one-man shows at the Betty Parsons Gallery in 1950 and 1951, and at other galleries across the world, including Japan, São Paulo and Amsterdam. The 1952 "Fifteen Americans" show curated by Dorothy Canning Miller at the Museum of Modern Art formally heralded the abstract artists, including works by Jackson Pollock and William Baziotes. It also created a dispute between Rothko and Barnett Newman, after Newman accused Rothko of having attempted to exclude him from the show. Growing success as a group led to infighting, and claims to supremacy and leadership. When "Fortune" magazine named a Rothko painting as a good investment, Newman and Still, out of jealousy, branded him a sell-out, secretly possessing bourgeois aspirations. Still wrote to Rothko to request the paintings he had given Rothko over the years. Rothko was deeply depressed by his former friends’ jealousy.

Here is a very interesting story from Mr. Sosnoff at Forbes in which he almost buys a Rothko after returning from the Korean War and now sees today's growth stocks as a better value compared to prices for "blue chip" art.

Jun

30

There are several reasons that cynics are on the rise in my opinion.

1. People assume the cynic is the expert. The cynic has an aura of authority.

2. Cynicism is masked as realism.

3. People assume the cynic is a healthy skeptic. On first encounter these two are hard to distinguish.

4. The cynic guards against disappointment.

5. The cynic creates an “us” against “them” world. "We won't be fooled again" by "them".

6. It is easier to find a problem than create a solution or even understand how complex creativity works.

7. It is easy to ignore the positive. Hard to ignore the negative.

8. People assume their bias is only one sided: When they like something too much. People recognize their biases when there is favoritism but justify their biases when there is disdain or prejudice. The cynic reinforces that their biases are the only morally defensible ones.

9. The cynic has many times when he is proven wrong, but it is often hard to pinpoint the opportunity cost to that cynicism (for ex. the profit he missed by staying out). However, when he is proven right, it is very easy to see how much he has saved.

10. The belief that Type II errors or believing falsely in a person are much more damaging than Type I errors or not giving a good person a chance. Despite the time it takes for a person to prove she is proficient and the moment it takes to lose trust-worthiness.

11. The cynic is elevated as “your own man” by the media and politically. Thus becoming the “go to person” when they want something said or done. This creates all sort of side agreements and quid quo pro understandings.  Every TV program needs the phone numbers of a few favorite cynics.

12. Ironically, the person most likely to publicly be called down for their cynical tendencies is the person that is cynical towards the celebrated cynic.

Con-artists understand deeply the appeal of cynicism and use it against their prey.

The cynic is the ultimate champion for the status quo. The cynic can define people by their weaknesses not their strengths. Since everybody has weaknesses, they can dictate who is important by defining who is not important. Old man’s disease is giving in to the appeal of cynicism.

Rocky Humbert writes:

"A cynic is a man who, when he smells flowers, looks around for a coffin."

H. L. Mencken

In the spirit of not being a cynic, I note today's news story reporting that volunteers in Japan are being asked to grow sunflowers to produce seeds … so even more sunflowers can be grown in areas contaminated by radioactivity from the Fukushima disaster. The proponents say sunflowers can efficiently absorb radioactivity from the soil in a process known as phytoremediation. Here's the news story.

The skeptic (as opposed to cynic) in me thought that this sounds like an example of "green" people confusing Flower Power with nuclear physics. But a little bit of research reveals a bit of "sunny" science for the weekend. There is REAL science here! Sunflowers (and certain other plants) CAN decontaminate radioactive soil faster and cheaper than many other approaches. Chernobyl was a large-scale proof of concept. Here are 2 of academic papers on the subject:"Screening of plant species for comparative uptake abilities of radioactive Co, Rb, Sr and Cs from Soil,"Gouthu et al ; Journal of Radioanalytical & Nuclear Chemistry" and  "Uranium Absorption Ability of Sunflower, Veiver and Puple Guinea Grass," Roongtanakiat et al (2010)

SO THE MORAL OF THE STORY IS: "A cynic is a man who, when he smells flowers, looks around for radioactive contamination."

 

Pitt T. Maner III comments: 

The phytoremediation and bioremediation fields have bloomed to aid companies tasked with difficult cleanups. Even earthworms can be useful with certain contaminants (PCBs).

Larger trees also can be used to influence the flow of impacted groundwater so that contaminants do not move offsite—effectively they act as small pumps (think of all the Florida maleleucas used to drain wetlands, now designated as "noxious weeds"). Trees can help with the treatment process through the uptake and concentration of contaminants or the breakdown of contaminants in the bacteriologically-rich portions of the root system .

The economics can be interesting and one can only imagine what they are in the Japanese case and how they affect current land values. Those with an understanding of the actual risks involved and the ability to cost effectively clean properties have in certain instances done well:

"Acquisition, adaptive re-use, and disposal of a brownfield site requires advanced and specialized appraisal analysis techniques. For example, the highest and best use of the brownfield site may be affected by the contamination, both pre- and post-remediation. Additionally, the value should take into account residual stigma and potential for third-party liability. Normal appraisal techniques frequently fail, and appraisers must rely on more advanced techniques, such as contingent valuation, case studies, or statistical analyses.[11] Nonetheless, a University of Delaware study has suggested a 17.5:1 return on dollars invested on brownfield redevelopment.[12]"

Kevin Depew writes:

Why do you believe cynicism is on the rise? In my opinion, the < 35 generation doesn't really understand it or ignores it. I don't have access to it now, but I saw some large scale polling data on Friday that was remarkable in the cross section spreads between < 35 and those over, especially > 65. The gist, based on this polling data, is that if one is > 65, one is likely to find the country going to hell, the economy going to hell, that politicians are evil and stupid and that all bankers and finance people are crooks by a wide, wide margin over younger subset. If interested I'll forward data when I get back in office Monday. I was looking at it in the first place because there is a wide divergence between consumer comfort and confidence data vs market that is outside of 25 year norms and was just curious about the asymmetry in both economy and the polling data.

Victor Niederhoffer writes: 

Artie wrote a book on cynicism in the police force that attributed cynicism as a variant of the authoritarian personality. He believed that police became cynical because they saw so much evil that their own persona looked relatively good compared to all the evil, and their cynicism and corruption was a natural outgrowth of the impossibilities of fulfilling all the requirements of an all too demanding job with conflicting goals. I believe we become cynical on the list because we see such ephemeral behavior by the public and funds, and such inside maneuvering by the cronies and flexions. It's hard to maintain a proper chivalrous attitude when confronted by these things day after day.

Jeff Watson adds:

But that cynicism, if allowed to fester, will have profound effects on one's trading. I've seen it happen too many times to people and they end up losing their edge.

Ken Drees writes:

Cynicism towards markets and politicians is healthy, but toward general mankind or society, probably not so well placed since hope and belief in goodness of the total gives one an overall positive tendency towards world view but also a well placed skepticism at certain segments.

The idea of erosion is interesting where the rigors of the job or the constant focus on conflicting outcomes that collide with the overarching worldview wear down the person's belief in good. One thought along these lines that I have is that by the end of one's life you are so distilled down in terms of your true character that its impossible to change. You are either that positive and generally nice old person, or a frown wearing old crank; the thoughtful scientist who never stops learning, or a worn out 24/7 TV watcher.

Russ Sears adds: 

I believe it also has to do with the narrow vision we have of public versus personal life of the cynic. We do not see that like a partying narcotic addict, the soul has been sold for a very narrow gain. The personal life is full of turmoil and eventually rots the productivity out of the person. Think about the cynicism required of the steroid user or EPO user for example.

I believe that many companies demise starts when a new "C" position arrives within it- the Chief Cynic. If not confronted as Artie did, often this position is allowed to become an all consuming cultural force.

Vincent Andres adds:

"the cheaper money tends to drive out the dearer"

(the money of lower value drives out the money of higher value)

–Nicolas Oresme

(« la mauvaise monnaie chasse la bonne » )

Jun

27

Long before laboratories had HPLC, GC-Mass Specs, spectrophotometry, computers, even chemicals and glassware for that matter, there were still inquisitive people who wanted to learn and study about the earth and the universe around us.

The first laboratories equipment probably consisted of a couple of straight sticks, after which they added a rock, and a string. A timepiece would have been nice, but since timepieces weren't invented yet, they probably needed the stick to tell time. The first scientists pounded a stick into the ground and noticed a few things.

First, they probably tracked the stick's shadow from when the sun rose until the sun set. The scientists noticed that the shadow was longest when the sun rose and set, and the shadow was shortest when the sun was at the highest point of the day, They also noticed that when the shadow was shortest, that was the exact middle of the period of daylight and they were able to determine the local noon(midway between sunset and sunrise). The first scientists had inadvertently created the first timepiece, the sundial, from a simple stick.

This sundial was also the first compass as at the exact moment of local noon, the shadow pointed either due north or due south depending which side of the equator they were on. They also noticed that in the northern hemisphere that the shadow revolved around the base of the stick in a what is called a "clockwise" pattern.

Since it's safe to assume that those early scientists had plenty of time on their hands (no worries about publish or perish or tenure), it's not a stretch to think that that they made observations of the stick for a very long time. First, they would have noticed a big pattern of shadows in a 365 day repeating period. Had they observed the stick for any 365 day period in a row, and recorded what they saw, they would have noticed that the sun doesn't rise on the exact same spot on the horizon. They would have also recorded the fact that on two days a year, the shadow at sunset points exactly opposite the shadow at sunrise. When this happens, the sun rises due east and sets due west and the daylight lasts as long as the night. These two days were found out to be the spring and fall equinoxes. Any and all other days, the sun sets somewhere else on the horizon, not due east or west.

The scientists also noticed that while the sun was rising and setting on different points of the horizon, it's trajectory was also changing. They recorded the two days of the 365 where the shadow at noon where the shadow was either the longest or shortest. The day the noon shadow was the longest, it was the winter solstice, and when it was the shortest, it was the summer solstice. It's amazing that with a simple stick, those first scientists were able to record the four points on the compass, and were also able to identify the four days of the year that mark the change of seasons.

Those scientists weren't finished with the stick, they had more observations. At night, they lined up their stick with a familiar star in the sky. Using their hourglass, they would have noticed that the star took 23 hours, 56 minutes, for the star to align it with the stick from the previous alignment. From this they would be able to deduce the length of a day and determine that it was uniform throughout the year.

The scientists weren't finished with the single stick, as the scientists that recorded the tip of the shadow of the high noon noticed that the shadow fell to a different spot each day and over the course of 365 days, those marks traced a figure 8. The figure 8 happens because the Earth tilts on its axis by 23.5 degrees from the plane of the solar system. The tilt gives rise to the seasons and the apparent wide ranging path of the sun across the skies.

The figure 8 is the result of the sun migrating back and forth across the celestial equator during the year. Due to many other things, the earth's orbit is not a perfect circle and according to Kepler's Planetary laws, the orbital speed must vary, increasing as we move toward the sun and decreasing as we move away. Because the Earth's rotation is constant, but the orbital speed isn't, high noon does not always correlate with "Clock noon." The variance can be as much as 16 minutes early or late depending on the time of year. Interestingly, the clock noon equals high noon only four days a year, Dec 25, April 15, June 14, and Sep 2.

But I digress, the first scientists had much more on their plate, and they had science to do. Those scientists probably sent their assistants due south way beyond the horizon (more than 6 degrees would be ideal) with a stick the same length. At a predetermined time (high noon?), on the same day in the future, they measured the length of the shadow, and were able to use those lengths to calculate the Earth's circumference using simple geometry.

From the circumference, they could determine the radius, diameter, volume and much more. From this, one could have probably made a few more simple measurements and arrived at a mass of the earth. Eratosthenes of Cyrene measured the length of the two shadows with a partner in 222BC and got an answer that was within 15% of the true circumference. As an aside, the word geometry is derived from the ancient Greek word, "Earth measurement."

The first scientists were also able to pound a stick into the ground at an angle other than vertical, attach a string and a rock to the end, creating a pendulum. If they counted the number of times the rock swings in 60 seconds, they deduced that the mass of the rock and the width of the arc had very little to do with the number of swings. The only thing that matters is the length of the string and what planet you are on. Using very simple equations, one can, from a pendulum,. determine the acceleration of gravity on the Earth. If you went to the moon, you would find the pendulum moving much more slowly and you could calculate that the gravity is 1/6 of that of Earth.

There's more experimentation that could be done. If one got a large stick, or tree around 33 Meters long and tied a long string to it with a very heavy stone at the end and set this pendulum in motion, the bob would swing for hours on end. If the early scientists tracked the direction of the pendulum swings, they would have noticed the plane of the swing rotates. Ideally, if one set up the pendulum at either of the Earth's poles, the swing would make one full rotation every 23 hours, 56 minutes, but the rotation would go slower as you went towards the equator where the pendulum's plane would not move at all. This not only proved that the Earth rotates, but using a little trig, and a timer, one could determine one's latitude. For what it's worth, Focault, the French Physicist did this in 1851, which was one of the last truly elegant experiments. That big pendulum was named after him and they can be found in almost every science museum in the world.

It's very interesting that from a couple of sticks, a string, and a rock, one can determine the four points of the compass, the four days of the year that mark the change of seasons, the exact length of the day, the circumference of the Earth, it's diameter, radius, volume, your own latitude, and the acceleration due to gravity.

A modern common complaint is that a lack of tools keeps us from doing proper science, and that is a very intellectually lazy complaint. The basic axioms of science were proven, long ago with a stick, a string, and a rock. In fact, the first computer was invented in 150 BC in Greece and was called the Astrolabe. I wonder if traders approached their study of the markets using the same ingenuity and out of the box thinking as Eratosthenes of Cyrene, Focault, Euclid, or Newton, what differences in understanding would be? For what it was worth, Newton was an investor who lost the equivalent of $2.75 million in the market, and this author will let the reader draw their own conclusions.

Pitt T. Maner III adds:

The use of sticks and stones to produce metal must have been a wondrous experiment. 35,000 BC by the Khormusans is an early date for the advance, and the power of a simple magnetized needle to give direction.

The story is that when Einstein was a young boy he was fascinated by a compass:

When he was 5 years old and sick in bed, Hermann Einstein brought Albert a device that did stir his intellect. It was the first time he had seen a magnetic compass. He lay there shaking and twisting the odd contraption, certain he could fool it into pointing off in a new direction. But try as he might, the compass needle would always find its way back to pointing in the direction of magnetic north. "A wonder," he thought. The invisible force that guided the compass needle was evidence to Albert that there was more to our world that meets the eye. There was "something behind things, something deeply hidden."

So began Albert Einstein's journey down a road of exploration that he would follow the rest of his life. "I have no special gift," he would say, "I am only passionately curious."'

Jun

24

"Audiences use language devices seen regularly in the movies to shape their own discourse," he points out. In particular, people are likely to see what types of speech 'work well' in the movies in enabling characters to gain their objectives, and copy that. "One might surmise that movies are the marketplace for seeing what's on offer, what works, and what needs purchasing and avoiding in buyers' own communicative lives," Giles says.

From here. 

Gibbons Burke writes:

Saturday Night Live seems to have an initial measure of success. The actors and writer seem to track how effective they are at planting and watering the seeds of catchwords in the culture, ways of talking in novel distinctive ways that they can see in society and know they are having an impact.

For example, it was sort of novel when David spade played an arrogant receptionist who would receive clients at an office. Rather than ask a straight question, every request for informatiowas posed as a fill in the blank. For example, rather than ask the client "May I have your name?" or "What is your name?" make a statement which required an answer to complete. "I am here to see Dr. Dinkus." Spade replies "…and you arrrrrrre ________?" "Tom Turkey" "and you re seeing Dr. becaussssssse _________?" "I have a sore back."

All of a sudden, it seems to me everyone starts talking like that - a viral verbal meme. Maybe it was there before, and SNL just lofted it to prominence.

A more recent case like that is the repeated "Really?" question - as an expression of indignation, surprise, disbelief. "Really, San Francisco? Banning goldfish? Really? Really?"

I don't know if the writers on SNL heard that somewhere and then decided to flog it into mass acceptance, or whether their writers just like coming up with that sort of thing, but it seems to be a cultural game that probably goes on in the movies as well.

Pitt T. Maner III writes:

The one that has become noticeable to me in the past couple of years on CNBC is the use of "So" to start answers to questions. Maybe this has been around a long time but it has an odd cadence to it. The host asks the guest a specific question and the guest answers with a somewhat deflective sounding…"So first quarter sales improved and our expectations for the rest of the year are…."

"So" becomes a transitional word to suggest a level of sophistication about what is to follow—it eases the speaker into a difficult answer, but it has certain dismissive and weaseling connotations when overused.

One is tempted to say "so, so what?" to CEOs who begin all sentences with "So".

I am not sure where or when the "So" meme started or how it took root in the Wall Street Community but there must be a simple explanation not related to Peter Gabriel's 5th studio album.

 

Jun

21

It turns out the streets of New York really are paved with gold - as long as you don't mind searching for it on your hands and knees.

Raffi Stepanian, a self-styled urban prospector, has discovered enough tiny jewellery fragments hidden in the sidewalks of the city's Diamond District to make a living . Using nothing more than a Styrofoam cup, tweezers and a butter knife, he collects hundreds of dollars worth of gold, diamonds and rubies each week.

Read the full article here. 

 

Jun

6

Not to be overly curmudgeonly ( and I do donate) but donation-seeking and donation "marketing" seems to be rising to a crescendo.

The supermarket asks every time if you would like to donate $1 to the cause of the week — the check out ladies give a sour look if you do not comply. Stands for various groups are often positioned on both exits of the store when you leave.

The drugstore asks if you want to donate after you swipe your credit card. Numerous mailers clog the mailbox asking for donations, many with pictures of children with birth defects in foreign. Veterans group supporters work the stop lights located at the end of the middle bridge to Palm Beach where they shake donation cans at the wealthy leaving the island. Electric bills have blocks to donate money to help the poor. Online registration for Florida auto tags and license renewal have long block lists for local causes that you can put on your credit card.

At each major earthquake or crises the Red Cross steps up the disaster relief requests and ad campaigns.

The handicapped have approached in major shopping store aisles and one feels obligated to help or risk feeling bad for the rest of the day.

One is handed the feeling that society will soon collapse without higher taxes and ever more donations.

Perhaps there should be a "Donation Nation" short movie where the lead character is compelled to pay at least a dollar every time he is asked or pay the maximum donation requested. Bankruptcy would occur at 6 months or sooner.

The numbing effects of Donation Overload are probably more easily overcome by less aggressive, softer selling approaches.

May

31

What will the bottom look like for US housing?

Sale-hungry, real estate agents tout low interest rates as the best time to buy, and that of course would be today. But are we at "the" bottom? I say we are not. Here are some bottom recognition themes that I would expect to see if the economic contraction continues and the bailouts ultimately fail with high commodity prices persistent.

1. First time home buyers (young couples) will turn to consolidated renters-move in together and share an apartment. The average age of 1st time buyers will trend higher. First timers under a certain age may need a 30% dp and a co-signature.

2. Prevailing sentiment sentence: "You own a home, you are either rich, old, or crazy".

3. Why own a home, there are no tax deductions anymore?

4. Real estate agents will be scarce.

5. Most unsold homes consolidated under a government/bank/insurance entity, General Homes (GH)?

6. Large sections of most all major cities like Detroit will have huge inner city areas bulldozed clean of empty homes. People living in homes on streets that are scheduled to be wiped will be given an equal or greater value home in a different part of the city that is earmarked for urban homeowners.

7. Large corporations or entities will purchase huge city open acre zones to rebuild gated communities and downtown oasis business zones that will be the new coveted land. These areas will be far from the urban sections that house the remaining hangers on.

8. "Owning a home is an anchor. In this economy mobility is key."

9. In the event of natural disasters, like the recent tornado, that wiped a town in half. New act of God clauses will be written into insurance and fema guidelines to get those people who have been made homeless to not rebuild but to migrate to unsold homes nearby owned or not by GH. This will take homes off the supply list.

10. Imagine a terrible new Madrid quake-Diaspora of population will take large amounts of homes out of supply due to no rebuild rulings.

11. The cost of home maintenance and upkeep due to raw material pricing will make it even more difficult to build new homes or maintain existing ones, although labor will be lower in cost for these services due to high unemployment.

12. Saving up very large down-payments and/or paying for a home in cash will be in vogue.

13. Neighborhood demographics will be very important in determining where to live. Longevity of intact healthy home zones will be key to long term stable values and reselling ability. Questionable areas with unlived in homes, many elderly, poor schools will continue to decay.

14 Home with an empty lot next door will be more common. Empty lots may be turned into garden zones, for neighbors.

15. Farms make a comeback since the home's value may depend on its own earning potential. Urban farms are already springing up in some inner cities.

16. The decision to buy a home will be considered as one of the most important in one's life.

17. Corporations may decide to buy bundles of cheap homes near work locations to rent to employees. Offering living quarters as part of total compensation will ensure home upkeep, intact resale zones, and ultimately profit.

18. Your carbon footprint will be taxed based on your home's energy characteristics. This would lead to high efficient energy themes, smaller homes, and conservation of utilities. This will reflect disdain for older homes and lead to the reduction of older homes through teardowns. Increased EPA restrictions on remodeling are happening now.

19. Lowes or Home-Depot, Sears, one will be gone or combined.

20. You will have to pay a real estate agent a trip fee to be shown a home.

21. Expect further consolidation of real estate companies.

22. Home Builder bankruptcy filings will increase, expect a big name or two to go away.

23. Gated communities will become more the norm. Knowing your neighbors will be an important theme in terms of security and safety.

24. The starter home section of the market will devolve, breaking down into a more energy efficient, higher quality home. The move up home will become the new permanent home for most. The high-end homes for the wealthy will cost more, be taxed more and will not change much. As the middle class shrinks the homes will be more straddled-either higher end or junk/rent.

25. Condos, a double edged sword -great when filled and no vacancies, bad when values are down and vacancies must be shared as a burden to all association owners-will either thrive as high end high security safe zones or be bulldozed. The condo concept may merge with the home zoned concept. Fort thinking may surface where a condo buyer may want to pledge too not sell for x years-getting a place in the fort is what counts.

26. Homes far away from employment areas will suffer. Long commutes will be a large factor in a buyer's mind. Homes in solid employment zones may be coveted and handed down from generation to generation like apts. in NYC, or old plantations in the south.

27. The amount of crime relating to copper thieving and siding pulling will come down due to lack of hood home supply and or higher security of homes still intact.

28. Home security, already a growing sector will grow in terms of round the clock surveillance -google home watch, automated stun defense systems, etc. Castle doctrine shooting of intruders will increase.

29. Pet ownership will drop since less homes and more people renting which usually employ no-pet clauses. Large eating-machine pets and high vet bill pets will shrink. The McMansion has died and soon the black lab will be a memory. Animal hoarders will be prosecuted severely.

30. Remodeling for college return grads will be even more in vogue. Mother in law suite, will become elder child accommodations.

31. As more home based businesses increase watch for the home office deduction to vanish, to further tax the homeowner.

32. Double houses will take on a charm once again if near safe areas or employment zones. Owner occupies half and rents out the other. Security, tenant control and income stream makes this concept more appealing. Builders may build new double homes with upgraded features-this may be a budding area of green cutting edge trend for builders, a healthy niche.

33. Concept homes for divorced persons who need to stay in same home with kids will evolve.

34. Foreclosures start to dry up as the eventual end comes into view.

35. High interest rates return and cement the death of housing and the bottom will be in. Home ownership will be considered a luxury.

Sam Marx writes:

I live in FL, and 5 or 6 years ago we had 2 back to back hurricanes in my area and for the next 5 or 6 months, Waste Management trucks could be seen hauling away the debris, lots of branches, etc.

I know it sounds ghoulish, but investments in Waste Management type companies in the tornado belt area might be a good investment.

Pitt T. Maner III writes:

I remember a run-up in the price of a small powerline repair company (don't remember the name) that did work in the SE and maybe on some of the Carribean Islands after Wilma (?).

Powerline repair, telephone line and tower repair, etc. can come into play after big hurricanes particularly since the wind speed and forces are often higher as you move above land surface.

In West Palm Beach there was a rather dramatic example a few blocks away where heavy power line cables running in a north-south orientation started swinging and ballistically broke and cracked what looked like strong, rebar-encased concrete poles. Several very large electric support towers collapsed out in the Glades too.

After a big storm, there can also be a multi-month need for rental equipment to cut, clear, and load vegetation and debris and to rebuild structures.

It seems like it took 6 months to a year to clean up after Andrew.

May

31

I have recently been considering the angle of ascent as a predictor of subsequent movements as part of a general consideration of the principles of conservation of momentum apliccability to markets. Here's one approach.

Consider all moves during a week of 10 to 20 full points i.e. 1% in s & p

.                  number of obs  move the next day     sd
.previous Wed
.to Friday
.up more than 10     44            -2                   13
.up btwn 5 and 10    27            -1                    9
.up btwn 1 and 5     14             0                    0
.-5 < sp <0          11            0                    12
.sp < -5              9           20                    22

There would seem to be some small evidence that for weekly moves during the 1st 10 years, given that the move during the week was between 1 and 2%, the algebraic speed of ascent in the last part was negatively correlated with the move the next day. The approach has many bifurcations and variations and might be interesting to the physicists in our audience.

Chris Tucker writes: 

Angles are important in aviation, we use quite a few. Pilots differentiate between angle of climb  and rate of climb. Best angle of climb will provide the most vertical gain over a specified distance, which is handy for clearing obstacles like trees off the end of a runway. Best rate of climb will gain the most altitude over a specified period of time. Not the same thing.

Angle of incidence, a fixed value, is the angle between the chord line of the wing and the longitudinal axis of the fuselage and is not to be confused with the all important angle of attack, the angle between the chord line of the wing and the airflow through which it is travelling. Lift generally increases with angle of attack to a maximum point, the critical angle of attack, after which it decreases because the laminar flow of air over the wing begins to separate from the surface of the wing creating a stall condition. (Nice illustration and mention of tennis and golf balls here.

A serious stall involves a complete loss of lift and often results in a spin and frequently ends in tragedy, as in the loss of Air France Flight 447  and the most recent fatal crash in the United States, Colgan Flight 3407.

The thing to consider in aircraft when looking for a superior rate of climb is high thrust to weight ratio and light wing loading. Pilots can cheat, however, by accelerating during level flight and trading this kinetic energy into a single burst of high speed climb. This is known as a zoom climb and I have suggested the use of this maneuver on occasion to convince pilots to penetrate a layer of severe turbulence if the layer is thin enough and there is smooth air above. It is critical to have current and accurate information about the turbulence before attempting something like this. The important thing about a zoom climb is that it is unsustainable and is bounded by the amount of available kinetic energy. Military fighter aircraft, with extremely high thrust to weight ratios need not be concerned with this as they are capable of sustained and extreme vertical speeds. But they burn an awful lot of fuel in the process.

(Sorry for all the links, when I start talking about flight I tend to get carried away….) 

Pitt T. Maner III writes: 

Played tennis one night many years ago under the lights with a commercial pilot from Nevada who had a naval aviation background and he described the difficulties of landing a jet on an aircraft carrier under low light conditions in fairly rough sea. What he described was having to concentrate, I think, on the pitch, roll and yawl and coordinate it with the similar movement of the carrier flight deck—lots of variables in a short time window and positional awareness. Very harrowing procedure in difficult conditions (it sounded nightmarish, and one for only the most experienced pilots) and he used the term "bought the farm" several times to describe pilots who had crashed in such circumstances.

What was interesting was a technique he described as powering up and down so as to maintain control and complete the landing. Too much power and he would overshoot and too little and he would stall out or not make the deck. It sounded like revving an engine. Short bursts of power on and power off.

Is that a technique that is taught or does that come from experience and feel?
 

By coincidence it is the 100th Anniversary of carrier landings. Even with the technological advances pilots must very skilled:

"On Nov. 14, 1910, Ely ignored storm clouds and took off in a spindly aircraft from the USS Birmingham, which sat in the waters of Hampton Roads. It was the first time an aircraft had ever lifted off from a ship.

A photograph freezes the moment in time that Ely became airborne. Yes, that would be him, dropping toward the water.

The flight came perilously close to failing. Ely dove toward the water to gain speed and pulled up, but not before his wheels and part of his propeller struck the water. The aircraft climbed into the air, rattling with damage. Steering with his shoulders — aircraft of that day were built by bicycle makers, and were steered by leaning — he managed to land on the beach at Willoughby Spit.

Then in January 1911, Ely closed the historical loop by landing on the deck of a ship. This time, the event was in San Francisco and the ship was the USS Pennsylvania.

Later that year, Navy brass became convinced to give these new-fangled flying machines a try, and put in the first order for aircraft. That makes 2011 the official 100th anniversary of naval aviation.

Many events are planned for next year, but the Navy will get a head start on the celebration come Friday, with a celebration and a display of older aircraft. Coolbaugh's replica is closer to the aircraft that Ely landed out in San Francisco in 1911, as opposed to the one that took off from Hampton Roads a few months earlier. Still, he had hoped to fly his aircraft off the deck of the USS George H.W. Bush as a tribute to Ely's first take-off."

Here is the wiki for Eugene Ely.

"It's a dangerous job" 

And an interesting video here.

May

30

Six seismologists and a government official are being tried for manslaughter in the deaths of more than 300 people in the 2009 tremblor in L'Aquila, Italy. The city's public prosecutor says the scientists downplayed the possibility of a quake to an extent that townsfolk did not take precautions that could have saved their lives. A judge has just set the trial to begin on September 20. - News Item.

It seems to be an occupational hazard in that part of the world: 

"In 1795, Ascanio Filomarino devised a seismograph similar to the one Zhang had invented centuries before. It had a part that would stay stationary while the rest of the instrument would shake when an earthquake was occurring, and ring bells and set off a clock. Poor Ascanio was murdered on Mt Vesuvius by an angry mob that didn't like his work. They also burned his workshop and destroyed his seismograph."

May

27

The Bulls looked almost as clueless and bereft as the Knicks during the last minutes of their last two playoff losses. How does a team manage to lose a game by 3 that they were ahead by 12 in, with less than 2 minutes to go…?

A canal, a plan, Dallas.

Kevin Depew writes:

I'll have to look at the stats tomorrow, but my impression is that after all games in this series Bulls had a lead in the game for a large percentage of time in all games.

Pitt T. Maner III writes:

Perhaps more experienced professionals know how to pace themselves better over a series and within a game and always leave a bit of "dry powder" for when it is needed most. It might be interesting to review at what times key players were rested. To be able to play tough defense and shoot 3s at the end of a game indicates "fresh legs".

Let the youngsters go out fast, run and expend energy and compress the game outcome to the last quarter:

"Including the regular season, the Chicago Bullswere 53-0 when leading by double-digits in the fourth quarter. So, with only 3:14 remaining in Game 5, and the Bulls leading by 12 points a win appeared all but certain.

The Miami Heathad other plans though, finishing the game on an 18-3 run to advance to the NBA Finals for the second time in franchise history.

According to 10,000 simulations done by Accuscore.com, the Heat had just a 1 percent chance of winning the game with 3:14 remaining."

Full article here.

May

26

This is a very interesting contest amongst the top basketball statisticians, and there are links at the bottom of the page to several of these experts' websites. Some sites I believe have been mentioned here before:

In the NBA, quantitative analysis has achieved certain landmarks. The analytical-minded are close to the centers of power on an increasing number of teams. The annual stat geek conference is nearly a must-attend for power brokers and has even spawned imitators.

But there is only one goofy contest in which real-deal analysts publicly compete against my mom. Since its 2007 founding, the contest has featured some of the best in the business, as evidenced by the fact that they keep getting hired away by NBA teams.

May

23

Nicholas Biddle was known as the Golden Calf in the 1830s because of the bent knees, the subservient worship, and hat doffing that accompanied his every utterance and activity, in allusion to the false bowing to that beast in Exodus while Moses was preoccupied.

Who is the comparable Golden Calf in the financial world today, and will his fate be similar?

Indeed, are there golden calves in other fields that deserve to be treated with less reverence?

How can this be distinguished from the "Useful Idiot" or "Your Own Man" or "the Fifth Columnist", and can a scalogram of such be created?

Yes, inquiring minds want to know, and let us not refrain from starting our typology in the corn belt if the boots fit.

Pitt T. Maner III writes:

Might not Dr. Spock have fallen into one of the categories? Some ideas of his were right and some wrong with long and short term implications to the health of a generation.

May

21

Having recently read Humberto Fontova's book Exposing the Real Che Guevara: And the Useful Idiots Who Idolize Him, a State Department-approved "purposeful" trip to Cuba doesn't quite have the same appeal as it once did.

Fontova's impassioned book covers the many lives lost to Castro's regime and the destruction of the formerly robust Cuban economy at the hands of the Communists. Fontova contends that Che was the "godfather of modern terrorism"– perhaps a bit of a stretch– but he does present in his book some interesting comparisons between Che's and Al Qaeda's aims and ambitions.

At any rate, American citizens may soon have a chance to go to Cuba if they so desire.

Some will argue that such cultural interactions will foster change. Others believe that the tourist money will be directed to the coffers of the Communist leaders to prop up a failing totalitarian state and ultimately extend the misery of the populace.

From the Miami Herald:

HAVANA — The forbidden fruit of American travel is once again within reach. New rules issued by the Obama administration will allow Americans wide access to communist-led Cuba, already a mecca for tourists from other nations.Within months or even weeks, thousands of people from Seattle to Sarasota could be shaking their hips in tropical nightclubs and sampling the famous stogies, without having to sneak in through a third country and risk the Treasury Department's wrath.

Full article here.

May

10

When holding the ball for the last shot (several examples in last night's playoff games), isn't it clear there is a tendency to wait too long?

I realize, especially when score is tied, you don't want other team to get the ball with sufficient time for it to set up a decent play and shot.

But taking that into account, the team holding the ball ("offense") should also factor in:

1) extra time needed to set up play and take final shot if offense players cannot get to planned positions, something goes awry, etc;

2) extra time needed if defending team interrupts or delays offense's final shot;

3) if offense misses but needs extra time for tip-in or for offensive rebound and second shot;

4) the possibility of the ball being lost or stolen while dribbling or passing around waiting for last shot;

5) the possibility that the offense is on its last legs, that the defense is the better or fresher team and will win in overtime, so there is a higher premium on the offense giving itself the highest chance to break the tie and win in regulation, rather than go to overtime.

More often than not, and especially last night, the team holding the ball winds up with a low-percentage shot (or even no shot). Taking all the above factors into account, shouldn't the coach and go-to guy of the offense start their final player a few seconds earlier?

James Goldcamp writes: 

The answer is, yes, especially with respect to #3 below. Also, another ploy is that when you know a team will hold for last shot at about 15 seconds left if I were on defense I would trap the ball handler and generally pressure knowing the player is afraid to shoot before 5 seconds or so and feel their coach's wrath; it's like a free option for the defense knowing you have a fixed strategy opponent.

The other thing that drives me nuts is with TV announcers where a team is down 2 points with the last possession saying "they don't need a three here", especially on the road. It's well known refs fail to call fouls at the end of a game ("put away the whistle"), so your player is likely to get fouled on a contested drive at the end resulting in a low percentage shot. Better to get a clear three off and win or lose it at that moment (again especially on the road where overtime will work against you); and if you shoot early enough three pointers are notoriously harder to rebound for the defense.

Just like in football, basketball experts and coaches are generally too conservative with strategy I think generally for the fear of looking stupid or reckless.

Pitt T. Maner III writes:

Usually 7 seconds seems to be the amount of time chosen to start the last play. Given that you have about a 1 in 3 chance of winning with the final play in a tie ball game, and you want to eliminate all possibility of the opposing team getting another look if you miss your final shot, there is a bias to starting the final play late.

Could be considered an example of risk aversion. Better to not win and go into certain OT than to have a potential (if only slight chance of) loss when leaving 2 to 3 seconds on the clock.

Even the best players in the clutch are below 50%. The conservative NBA coaching decision is often to go with your best shooter on an isolation one-on-one and to start the move to the basket at 5 to 7 seconds. It avoids a lot of post-game fan negativity which has to be a consideration. You would think (game theory wise) that a mixed last shot strategy of alternating players and plays would produce a higher win percentage but what coach wants to try that in the playoffs! Better to go with 5 seconds and your known Jordan, Horry, Kobe, LeBron being double covered than go with an alternate strategy.

Here is a list of the best "clutch" players.

Even NBA players "choke" (on occasion), so that if the final play starts too early there is probably a greater risk of potential turnover or poor clock management if several passes are made. There is a "dear in the headlight" phenomena when there is too much time to think about taking a shot–too many options and players not used to handling the ball in pressure can cause a freeze up. The defensive team may also make a decision to foul your worst free throw shooter. (although choking effects seem diminished in last 15 seconds according to following research)

It would be interesting to know what the risk of losing an NBA game is with only 1, 2, 3 ,4 , 5 seconds, etc. left on the clock.

Around 7 seconds appears to be the threshold time to running an effective play when taking the ball in from end to end.

This is a great article on the NBA choke effect:

We analyze the effects of pressure on performance using National Basketball Association (NBA) free throw data from the 2002-03 through 2009-10 seasons. We find strong evidence that players choke under pressure—they shoot 5-10% worse than normal in the final seconds of very close games. Choking is more likely for players who are worse overall free throw shooters, and on the second shot of a pair after the first shot is missed. In general, performance declines as pressure increases (as game time remaining decreases, and as the score margin decreases, whether the shooter's team is winning or losing). However, we find no evidence of choking when games are tied in the final 15 seconds. We also fail to find evidence of performance under pressure being affected by home status, attendance, and whether or not the game is in the playoffs.

May

9

Instead of all the stories about seizure of the most significant and detailed terrorist intel in history, wouldn't it have been wiser to leak the story that the hard drives and cellphones were pretty much wiped clean, that OBL was scrupulous in protecting his terrorist network? That way all OBL's Al Queda lieutenants and contacts might have been misled for a time, might not have changed all their communication and codes and scattered away immediately from their existing locations.

But I guess this continued bragging for the media and electorate is a lot more important than actually rolling up the OBL's network.

Pitt T. Maner III writes:

The geological clues from the early OBL videos looked promising at the time in the efforts to pinpoint his location. Perhaps more of these type of physical backdrops will be uncovered in recent pictures, videotapes, hard drives, etc. There are probably similar electronic data location clues as well.

Dr. Jack Shroder, a geologist from the University of Nebraska Omaha, was a key player in the field of geomorphological hide and seek:

After September 11, local reporters contacted Shroder and others at the Afghanistan Studies Center. Then, one day, a reporter for the San Francisco Chronicle called and asked him if he knew where Osama bin Laden was in the September video that aired on CNN. "In an inadvertent moment, I let that San Francisco Chronicle guy know that I knew where it was and all hell broke loose after that." Shroder says he knew the rocks and landforms and could place them in the western Spinghar (White Mountain) region of Tora Bora and nearby. "I was smart enough to know that I ought to mislead the media a little bit before I gave away something that I shouldn't have." So, to protect the sensitivity surrounding bin Laden's whereabouts, Shroder told the reporter a location he knew was probably not exactly right. He didn't want the press to have that precise information before the U.S. government did.

May

5

Here is a very interesting article and a quick read:

As a culture, we continue to undervalue and even demonize rest and renewal—to our collective detriment. Sleep and rest are the first things we're willing to sacrifice in the name of getting more done, even if the consequence is doing it poorly. Too many employers evaluate their employees by the number of hours they work rather than by the real value they generate. The archetypal hard worker still arrives at work at dawn, stays into the evening and brags about getting by on 5 or 6 hours of sleep. Far better to get sufficient sleep, arrive later, leave earlier, and take intermittent times to rest and renew during the day. You'll pay better attention and do better work, but you'll also be more productive, because you'll get more done in less time.

Pitt T. Maner III writes:

This concept is in use by the NBA too:

" Some N.B.A. teams have received an education in the art of napping from Dr. Charles Czeisler, the director of the Division of Sleep Medicine at Harvard Medical School and chief of the sleep medicine division at Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston.

Czeisler, known in the N.B.A. as the sleep doctor, has consulted with the Boston Celtics, the Portland Trail Blazers and the Minnesota Timberwolves about the virtues of receiving enough sleep. Napping was a significant piece of the tutorial.

Czeisler said he thought that N.B.A. players needed more sleep than the average person, about nine hours a day. Typical N.B.A. games end about 10 p.m., and with showering, eating, interviews and unwinding factored in, many players do not get to sleep until much later. If they are traveling to the next city after a game, they may arrive at their hotels after 3 a.m. There may then be a morning shootaround that requires getting up by 9 a.m. or earlier. Who wouldn't want a nap?"

(At the moment Lebron's power siesta, however, is outdoing the Celtic power nappers.)

Check out the Harvard Sleep Medicine Website also: (with mention of air traffic controllers also –and interesting points made about tired, young texting teens).

May

4

I had the privilege of working on civilian projects at the former Roosevelt Roads Naval Air Base in Puerto Rico back around 1998 and had the opportunity to work inside of a Seal area.

They are an extremely impressive group of guys, and the ones I talked to were nice fellows. It was common to see them up early in the morning running mile after mile of steep hills with a heavy duty Camelbak on their shoulders in 90 plus degrees and 90 plus humidity. They did lots of calisthenics (pull ups) and some evidently trained on rowing ergs. The level of physical and mental training and discipline was amazing.

The following link gives an idea of what it takes for a youngster to become a Seal.

One can only imagine what it takes to become a member of Seal Team 6.

Chris Tucker writes:

An interesting Air Traffic Control option, Air Force Combat Controllers usually accompany SEALS on active missions that may require air support.

Combat Controllers train in all fashions similar to other Special Ops team members and are authorized to call in air support and air strikes. They must have thorough knowledge of available aircraft types and capabilities and available weapons systems needed to get the job done. Cool job.
 

Apr

26

Now if someone could just IPO an anti-piracy company and dividend out the protection money:

Admiral Gary Roughead, Chief of Naval Operations, explained to Bloomberg how "piracy syndicates in villages, mainly in largely ungoverned Somalia, solicit investors who buy shares in piracy enterprises and gain a corresponding share of ransoms paid." As ransoms grow bigger, it is not only more attractive as an investment, it also leads to a sort of wealth effect by which more people become interested, more funds are made available, and better equipment is put at the hands of brigands.

Apr

26

This is a nice story by a former basketball player that reflects back on the 1996 upset of UCLA. The quotes below are from the former Princeton basketball coach, Pete Carril. He had a system and he always stayed true to it. Backdoor cuts, lots of picks, solid defense, good shot selection, established and frustrating (to opponent) pace of play, etc.

"It's good for your health to forget about all those wins and all those losses," he says from his office in Sacramento, where he's a consultant for the Kings. "And keep your mind on what you're doing now." Sure, Carril is still thrilled that he went out on top back in 1996, though he quickly adds, "If we didn't have to play another game, and lose, it would have been better."

With another March Madness set for tip-off, Carril say he doesn't watch a ton of college hoops these days, though he does offer some advice for those teams trying to pull a Princeton. "It goes back to my high school days," he says. "You walked into the football stadium, and there was a sign there I never forgot: 'If you think you can't, you won't.' That's all there is to it. Know the strong points of your team, and your weak points, and what the other team is going to try to exploit. Hold onto your guts. Don't let them force you out of what you want to do. Of course, that takes a lot of mental courage. There's physical and mental courage, and we weren't very high on the physical part. But on the mental part, no one forced us out of doing what we knew we had to do to win."

Read more here.

Apr

24

Good for the market:

"You half expected to see Jared Jeffries or Roger Mason, jr. on one of the other Knicks who were floating through the fourth quarter dive to the ground and tap out."

Touche.

Pitt T. Maner III writes:

The series "tap out" was foreshadowed when Carmelo Anthony heaved up a well defended, no-chance, 3-pointer at the end of regulation play in Game 1 in Boston instead of driving to the basket and possibly tying the game and extending play into overtime.

Before that final play the Knicks were turned over on a ticky tack offensive foul, Turiaf was disoriented and lost on an inbounds play that led to a slamdunk, and Celtic Ray Allen gunned in a 3. Knick discipline evaporated.

Well if your coach doesn't feel the need for a timeout at game end to settle things down and to improve chances with a set play and he doesn't want to risk grinding it out and working for a win in OT then what is your coach telling the opponent (you)? Heh you know it is going to take a lot of luck on our part to beat you (those) guys.

Improvisation works well in NYC comedy clubs and on asphalt playground courts, but it is not recommended for most teams and players on the hardwood courts of the NBA. 

Apr

24

Profiling ponzi-ists is an ever-challenging endeavor.

Members of the FBI's Behavioral Analysis Unit (FAU) are trying to apply some of the techniques used to find serial killers to detect white collar criminals. According to the first article below, the FBI now (for the first time) has an embedded agent working with the main office of the SEC.

1) Nicole Piquero, an associate professor of criminology at Florida State University, who wrote several academic papers that Hilts' BAU team is reviewing, said her research on white collar offenders, has found that many are extremely controlling in the workplace, almost obsessively so. But she said the problem profilers may encounter is that the characteristics that make a successful businessman, especially on Wall Street, are often ones shared by white collar offenders.

2) In any case, as the criminal CFO of Crazy Eddie, I found that most journalists, Wall Street analysts, investors, and auditors did not know how to ask proper questions, who to ask the proper questions to, how to handle my deceptive answers, and how to ask appropriate follow up questions.

More from Crazy Eddie's Antar:

Do not trust, just verify. Verify, verify, and verify.

White-collar criminals use a combination of charm and deceit to achieve their objectives.

White-collar criminals consider your humanity, ethics, morality, and good intentions as weaknesses to be exploited in the execution of their crimes.

White-collar criminals measure their effectiveness by the comfort level of their victims.

White-collar criminals build a wall of false integrity around them to gain the trust of their victims.

White-collar crime can be more brutal than violent crime, since white collar crime imposes a collective harm on society.

No criminal finds morality and stops committing crime simply because another criminal went to jail.

Apr

23

The enclosed list of best selling books of all time  is an excellent indicator of popular culture I think, and should have interesting market applications. How would one dig down into that, and do you think or do you think it's not applicable?

Steve Ellison writes:

The first thing I notice is what a diverse list it is. The Lord of the Rings is a fantasy book. Think and Grow Rich is a self help book. There are conventional novels, children's books, religious books, and even a book about science by Stephen Hawking.

Charles Pennington comments: 

Who'd have guessed that A Tale of Two Cities is the best seller (single volume) of all time? I didn't even know it was the best-selling Dickens novel, which apparently it is by a factor of 20, since no other Dickens novels appear in the list. That's very surprising; am I misinterpreting?

Stefan Jovanovich writes:

No misinterpretation here. ATOTC was so wildly popular in the U.S. - like all Dickens' writings - that people in New York and Boston and Baltimore (? not absolutely certain about that one) literally waited at the dock for the packet to arrive from England with the latest installment. One reason Dickens disliked America and Americans is that some of our enterprising ancestors are known to have bought a copy of the latest serial, set it in type over night and had reprints out on the street the following morning for sale - at, of course, a suitable discount from the price of the legitimate copies.

Tale of Two Cities was also the last book that "Phiz" illustrated. Starting with The Pickwick Papers, Dickens has written "monthly parts" that were sold as part of a serial publication. (It literally revolutionized British publishing.) The serials were close to being graphic novels. Robert Seymour, George Cruikshank, and George Cattermole all did illustrations. Hablot Knight Browne (1815-1882) — "Phiz" — did the ones that are best remembered. When Dickens began self-publishing in his own weekly periodicals, Household Words and All the Year Round, Dickens fired his friend as chief illustrator. The parallels with Walt Disney are interesting.

Pitt T. Maner III writes:

In digging down a bit one sees that 3 of the authors, with over 100 million copies sold, are buried within a couple of hundred miles of each other in England (within a shared cultural environment) and that some of their literary themes had connections with class or race distinctions and warfare /murder (Dickens–French Revolution, Tolkien–races of mythological creatures, Christie– see wiki article on And Then There Were None (which originally had a different title and is about murderers from different classes being tricked into meeting on an island and being tricked in some cases into bumping each other off).

There is a whole series of study devoted to the Chinese book Redology and (having not read it), " Dream of the Red Chamber" appears to involve issues of class mobility.

Tsao Hsueh-chin, the author of A Dream of Red Mansions, lived between 1715 and 1763. His ancestral family once held great power. As such, he led a wealthy noble life in Nanjing as a child. When he was 13 or 14, the family was declining and moved to Beijing, where life took a turn for the worse. In his later years, he even led a poor life.Drawing on his own experience, Tsao Hsueh-chin put all his life experiences, poeticized feelings, exploratory spirit and creativity into the greatest work of all time - A Dream of Red Mansions. Drawing its materials from real life, the novel is full of the author's personal feelings filled with blood and tears.

A Dream of Red Mansions is a novel with great cultural richness. It depicts a multi-layered yet inter-fusing tragic human world through the eye of a talentless stone the Goddess used for sky mending. Jia Baoyu, the incarnation of the stone, witnessed the tragic lives of "the Twelve Beauties of Nanjing", experienced the great changes from flourishing to decline of a noble family and thus gained unique perception of life and the mortal world. Revolving around Jia Baoyu and focusing on the tragic love between Jia Baoyu and Lin Daiyu and Xue Baochai against the backdrop of the Great View Garden, the novel portrays a tragedy in which love, youth and life are ruined as well as exposes and profoundly reflects the root of the tragedy – the feudal system and culture.

Found here.

Terrible things can happen if you leave the rich and powerful unchecked and unpunished… is that close to the themes that may be partially beneath the success and appeal of the above best sellers of all time.

The meme being that it will be back to the dark ages of murder and mayhem on earth if government social services are the least bit underfunded and the rich continue to not pay their fair share.

Dylan Distasio writes:

I thought it might also be worthwhile to look at bestsellers by decade. There is a course on 20th century American literature that has been kind enough to share their materials with the interwebs. The full list by decade for the 20th century is at the below link and is worth checking out.

Pitt T. Maner III comments:

In my first paid job as a 12-year old library aide, Agatha Christie made shelving a pile of returned books easy– her works constituted 10% of the pile and were quickly put back with little effort to the same spacious shelf location. I remember reading "Jaws" then, a book hugely popular at the time.

It is doubtful, however, that the Palm Beach socialites checking out multiple Christie books each week would ascribe her popularity to the "Burkean paradigm".

The following is a piece on Christie from a self-described "Wilsonian". Perhaps an example of reading into things a bit too much…the retrospective reasons for success when starting with a point of view.

Her work conforms to Burkean conservatism in every respect: justice rarely comes from the state. Rather, it arises from within civil society – a private detective, a clever old spinster. Indeed, what is Miss Marple but the perfect embodiment of Burke's thought? She has almost infinite wisdom because she has lived so very long (by the later novels, she is barely able to move and, by some calculations, over 100). She has slowly – like parliament and all traditional bodies, according to Burke – accrued "the wisdom of the ages", and this is the key to her success. From her solitary spot in a small English village, she has learned everything about human nature. Wisdom resides, in Christie and Burke's worlds, in the very old and the very ordinary.

Apr

18

The connections between sunspot activity and global climate change are a challenge for scientists to unravel (from impacts caused by volcanic dust and muliple physical variables). Jeff Watson has discussed this topic before so the clips from a couple of recent articles may be of interest.

1) From the Journal of Space Weather:

If you have the sense that the current solar cycle has been slow to build up, maybe it is more than just the "watched pot" failing to boil. A comparison with previous sunspot cycles shows that the current cycle is among the slowest-growing cycles characterized with good historical data. Figure 1 shows the smoothed sunspot number for the period from 2 years before the minimum to 2 years after it for the 24 numbered solar cycles (cycle 1 started in 1755; we are just now entering cycle 24). It illustrates the historically slow increase of the current cycle (shown in red) as of February 2011. Three of the four cycles with slower increases (shown in blue) were during the Dalton Minimum in the early nineteenth century. The fourth is the period leading into cycle 1. The red dots in the figure are cycle 24 monthly average sunspot numbers; these data are too recent to be adjusted by the smoothing algorithm that includes the influence of monthly averages within 6 months of the smoothed value. Also shown, at the bottom of the figure, for context, are the sunspot data for the first 23 cycles, which also identify the Dalton Minimum.

2) From Geophysical Research Letters:

Variations in the total solar irradiance (TSI) associated with solar activity have been argued to influence the Earth's climate system, in particular when solar activity deviates from the average for a substantial period. One such example is the 17th Century Maunder Minimum during which sunspot numbers were extremely low, as Earth experienced the Little Ice Age. Estimation of the TSI during that period has relied on extrapolations of correlations with sunspot numbers or even more indirectly with modulations of galactic cosmic rays. We argue that there is a minimum state of solar magnetic activity associated with a population of relatively small magnetic bipoles which persists even when sunspots are absent, and that consequently estimates of TSI for the Little Ice Age that are based on scalings with sunspot numbers are generally too low. The minimal solar activity, which measurements show to be frequently observable between active-region decay products regardless of the phase of the sunspot cycle, was approached globally after an unusually long lull in sunspot activity in 2008–2009. Therefore, the best estimate of magnetic activity, and presumably TSI, for the least-active Maunder Minimum phases appears to be provided by direct measurement in 2008–2009. The implied marginally significant decrease in TSI during the least active phases of the Maunder Minimum by 140 to 360 ppm relative to 1996 suggests that drivers other than TSI dominate Earth's long-term climate change.

Apr

8

The path is very key in markets. And I have been remiss in not taking into account the road that is taken by a market rather than concentrating on just it's last x maneuvers. "The road is better than the inn," as they say. If He Will, Let that be the heroic thought for the day inspired by Rocky, as one is being beat up markets today, and must confine ones attention to current activities rather than heroes from the past or current.

Ken Drees writes: 

Carlos Castenada–who wrote the Teachings of Don Juan, A yaqui way of knowledge– comes to mind here when through a vision of true seeing explained that the way to clearly "SEE" and understand a tree for example, was to concentrate on the spaces between the branches, the spaces between the leaves, and then one can fully see the tree's truest form and dimension and uniqueness. Similar to the post on black and white with color as an attract function that eliminates the true picture structure– the cheapened eye seeks the easy answer, look its just a tree.

The market's rode is like the leaves or the branches, what lies in between these daily prints that have not been touched may truly indicate the path.

Pitt T. Maner III writes: 

Which is somewhat similar to being able to draw. You have to look at an object in a different way and see the spaces and judge the proper proportions.

One of the first exercises using the following method from Betty Edwards is to turn a picture upside down so that it is unrecognizable to the left, judgemental side of the brain and then try drawing it—it is pretty amazing what you can do. Perhaps there are benefits to be gained from additional exercises for the right side of the brain as well as the left.

I am not sure how it can be applied to stock picking but the results are impressive for the before and after drawings shown and draftsmanship is a useful skill to have.

Apr

8

The Ball brothers were on p. A3 of today's Investor's Business Daily: "The Ball Brothers Bottled Can-Do Spirit In a Jar. "

The article describes not only their self-made creation of a manufacturing success, but also the great benefits they produced & gave to the community at large.

Pitt T. Maner III writes: 

I used to buy cases and cases of Ball jars (everything available on the store shelves). The supermarket checkout ladies would laugh at me and ask what I was canning.

"Contaminated soils, Ma'am" The change in expression on their faces was priceless.

Ball jars are very useful for screening for petroleum-impacted soils in the field. You fill the jars up half way with soil, cover the top with aluminum foil, put the ring back over the foil, let them sit for a couple of minutes and then use a field organic vapor analyzer (OVA), PID (photoionization), detector to sample the air in the headspace of the jar.

There are many more uses for common products than one would think.

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